Interesting stats from Travis County

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aggie93
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5:57p, 7/17/20
AG
Was looking over the Travis County Dashboard today as they are moving school back and the numbers are really interesting.

The numbers everyone talks about are the almost 17,000 Cases and 189 Deaths (1.3 million people in the County). The key is looking inside of those numbers:

  • 2% of cases (432) are to people 80+ yet 35% of Deaths (58) are from people 80+
  • 10% of cases (1,747) are to people under 20 (ie school age) yet ZERO (0) Deaths
  • 83% of deaths are for people over the age of 60

Looking at the map by Zip Code the cases are HEAVILY skewed to Central and East Austin, very few cases in West Austin yet Leander ISD (my school district) is basing their decisions on ALL of Travis County (even though much of the District is in Williamson). The numbers in West Austin simply do not support shut downs at all. Precautions certainly but there are hardly any cases much less a real risk to students or even the majority of teachers (few are over 50, virtually none over 60).

I'm fine with precautions, especially for the vulnerable but I don't see how shuttering schools can be justified. The numbers simply don't support it rationally.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
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Ragoo
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5:58p, 7/17/20
AG
I wonder if an analysis has been done to offer teachers 60+ early retirement.

Doubt it. Too much fear to sell.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to aggie93 • 6:09p, 7/17/20
AG
aggie93 said:
Was looking over the Travis County Dashboard today as they are moving school back and the numbers are really interesting.

The numbers everyone talks about are the almost 17,000 Cases and 189 Deaths (1.3 million people in the County). The key is looking inside of those numbers:

  • 2% of cases (432) are to people 80+ yet 35% of Deaths (58) are from people 80+
  • 10% of cases (1,747) are to people under 20 (ie school age) yet ZERO (0) Deaths
  • 83% of deaths are for people over the age of 60

Looking at the map by Zip Code the cases are HEAVILY skewed to Central and East Austin, very few cases in West Austin yet Leander ISD (my school district) is basing their decisions on ALL of Travis County (even though much of the District is in Williamson). The numbers in West Austin simply do not support shut downs at all. Precautions certainly but there are hardly any cases much less a real risk to students or even the majority of teachers (few are over 50, virtually none over 60).

I'm fine with precautions, especially for the vulnerable but I don't see how shuttering schools can be justified. The numbers simply don't support it rationally.
So 1 out of every 76 people have it in Travis County? Really?
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aginlakeway
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6:14p, 7/17/20
AG
Of those who tested positive for the coronavirus, 53% are Hispanic.
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TXTransplant
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6:42p, 7/17/20
Is there a difference between City of Austin and the rest of the county?

I was looking at those numbers for Houston/Harris Co today. CoH has 4x the number of active cases compared to Harris Co, despite the populations being roughly equal.

And 62% of Harris Co cases have "recovered" vs only 17% for CoH (although, this could be an issue with Houston health officials following up with positive cases).
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aggie93
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6:59p, 7/17/20
AG
Numbers above are for Travis County, numbers are heavily slanted to Central and East Austin.

Travis County Dashboard
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
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terradactylexpress
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In reply to TXTransplant • 7:36p, 7/17/20
What are the number of new cases over the ast few weeks, Houston vs Harris?
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TXTransplant
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In reply to terradactylexpress • 7:50p, 7/17/20
terradactylexpress said:
What are the number of new cases over the ast few weeks, Houston vs Harris?


IDK...data isn't that granular. All I know is Houston has 27,526 active cases; Harris Co has 6,716 (4:1).

I didn't see anywhere on the website where that data would be, either. You can't even download the data behind the figures as an Excel spreadsheet (you can for other counties, including Montgomery) and sort through it.
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PJYoung
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In reply to aggie93 • 6:51a, 7/18/20
AG
aggie93 said:
Numbers above are for Travis County, numbers are heavily slanted to Central and East Austin.

Travis County Dashboard


No working from home for them.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to aginlakeway • 8:09a, 7/18/20
AG
aginlakeway said:
aggie93 said:
Was looking over the Travis County Dashboard today as they are moving school back and the numbers are really interesting.

The numbers everyone talks about are the almost 17,000 Cases and 189 Deaths (1.3 million people in the County). The key is looking inside of those numbers:

  • 2% of cases (432) are to people 80+ yet 35% of Deaths (58) are from people 80+
  • 10% of cases (1,747) are to people under 20 (ie school age) yet ZERO (0) Deaths
  • 83% of deaths are for people over the age of 60

Looking at the map by Zip Code the cases are HEAVILY skewed to Central and East Austin, very few cases in West Austin yet Leander ISD (my school district) is basing their decisions on ALL of Travis County (even though much of the District is in Williamson). The numbers in West Austin simply do not support shut downs at all. Precautions certainly but there are hardly any cases much less a real risk to students or even the majority of teachers (few are over 50, virtually none over 60).

I'm fine with precautions, especially for the vulnerable but I don't see how shuttering schools can be justified. The numbers simply don't support it rationally.
So 1 out of every 76 people have it in Travis County? Really?
17000 is total cases, active cases is about 3000.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 8:15a, 7/18/20
AG
So 1 in 76 have tested positive at some point? That seems high. And 1 in 466 are active.
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Aust Ag
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In reply to aggie93 • 9:05a, 7/18/20
AG
aggie93 said:
Was looking over the Travis County Dashboard today as they are moving school back and the numbers are really interesting.

The numbers everyone talks about are the almost 17,000 Cases and 189 Deaths (1.3 million people in the County). The key is looking inside of those numbers:

  • 2% of cases (432) are to people 80+ yet 35% of Deaths (58) are from people 80+
  • 10% of cases (1,747) are to people under 20 (ie school age) yet ZERO (0) Deaths
  • 83% of deaths are for people over the age of 60

Looking at the map by Zip Code the cases are HEAVILY skewed to Central and East Austin, very few cases in West Austin yet Leander ISD (my school district) is basing their decisions on ALL of Travis County (even though much of the District is in Williamson). The numbers in West Austin simply do not support shut downs at all. Precautions certainly but there are hardly any cases much less a real risk to students or even the majority of teachers (few are over 50, virtually none over 60).

I'm fine with precautions, especially for the vulnerable but I don't see how shuttering schools can be justified. The numbers simply don't support it rationally.
Not 100% sure why Leander is not opening up. I wish it was too.

But I"m thinking nobody wants to be that one district that "screwed up" somehow or opened up before the others and somebody (teacher) died. That's the only thing I can think of. If they wait and open up with the others and something tragic happens, at least they wont be blamed for opening up too early and "putting people at risk" (thus mitigating giant lawsuit).

I mean, let's all be adults here...we all know what this is really about. Schools, colleges, large companies, municipalities....lawsuits. What does almost everything in life, peoples actions, at the end of the day always point back to? Doing "what's right", what makes sense? Haha. Fantasyland.

$$$$$$$$
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aggie93
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2:50p, 7/18/20
AG
It's clear to me that logic and reason aren't being considered in any of this. People are acting as though COVID is a death sentence or it will cause some mysterious lasting harm to children who get it and the evidence simply doesn't support that. It's serious and precautions should be taken but it isn't going away even if we do go full shut down again. We are months into this thing and virtually no one under 20 has died from it, I think nationally it's under 30 people and that includes people that had many other issues. If you are under 50 its extremely unlikely to kill you and if you are older than that but in very good health you are also likely to be fine.

Protect those who are vulnerable. Allow others to make a choice on how they live. Instead this whole thing has turned into a political mess.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
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TXTransplant
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In reply to aggie93 • 3:01p, 7/18/20
aggie93 said:
It's clear to me that logic and reason aren't being considered in any of this. People are acting as though COVID is a death sentence or it will cause some mysterious lasting harm to children who get it and the evidence simply doesn't support that. It's serious and precautions should be taken but it isn't going away even if we do go full shut down again. We are months into this thing and virtually no one under 20 has died from it, I think nationally it's under 30 people and that includes people that had many other issues. If you are under 50 its extremely unlikely to kill you and if you are older than that but in very good health you are also likely to be fine.

Protect those who are vulnerable. Allow others to make a choice on how they live. Instead this whole thing has turned into a political mess.


As of today, the CDC says 31 deaths for age 14 and under. 157 deaths for ages 15-24. That's since 2/1.

I made this graph yesterday (sorry it's on Instagram, but that's the easiest way I know to post pics).

https://instagr.am/p/CCvq7mnpldr
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aggie93
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In reply to TXTransplant • 3:57p, 7/18/20
AG
TXTransplant said:
aggie93 said:
It's clear to me that logic and reason aren't being considered in any of this. People are acting as though COVID is a death sentence or it will cause some mysterious lasting harm to children who get it and the evidence simply doesn't support that. It's serious and precautions should be taken but it isn't going away even if we do go full shut down again. We are months into this thing and virtually no one under 20 has died from it, I think nationally it's under 30 people and that includes people that had many other issues. If you are under 50 its extremely unlikely to kill you and if you are older than that but in very good health you are also likely to be fine.

Protect those who are vulnerable. Allow others to make a choice on how they live. Instead this whole thing has turned into a political mess.


As of today, the CDC says 31 deaths for age 14 and under. 157 deaths for ages 15-24. That's since 2/1.

I made this graph yesterday (sorry it's on Instagram, but that's the easiest way I know to post pics).

https://instagr.am/p/CCvq7mnpldr
I've seen slightly different numbers from different sources, partly because they use different age cutoffs and also because cause of death is varied (such as the person in FL that was in his 20's and died in a motorcycle accident but was COVID Positive and thus died of COVID). It's such a small number it's not statistically significant. It's certainly possible some have died of COVID who are school age but its certainly not a significant risk.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
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TXTransplant
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In reply to aggie93 • 4:09p, 7/18/20
I agree, especially considering there are so many other things that pose a MUCH higher risk to kids.
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BigOil
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9:27a, 7/19/20
AG
There may be a wide spectrum between death or no death. Simply not dying shouldn't be the only criteria. You could be asymptomatic, just have cold symptoms, have a wicked multi-day bed ridden flu analogy, or be knocked out weeks with long term damage.

Its not so black and white.
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TXTransplant
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In reply to BigOil • 9:30a, 7/19/20
BigOil said:
There may be a wide spectrum between death or no death. Simply not dying shouldn't be the only criteria. You could be asymptomatic, just have cold symptoms, have a wicked multi-day bed ridden flu analogy, or be knocked out weeks with long term damage.

Its not so black and white.


I think everyone here realizes that. But when it comes to making decisions about closing things - particularly schools - they are making decisions based on predictions of how many children might die, and those predictions don't make any sense based on the data we have over the past 6 or so months.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to TXTransplant • 10:24a, 7/19/20
AG
TXTransplant said:
BigOil said:
There may be a wide spectrum between death or no death. Simply not dying shouldn't be the only criteria. You could be asymptomatic, just have cold symptoms, have a wicked multi-day bed ridden flu analogy, or be knocked out weeks with long term damage.

Its not so black and white.


I think everyone here realizes that. But when it comes to making decisions about closing things - particularly schools - they are making decisions based on predictions of how many children might die, and those predictions don't make any sense based on the data we have over the past 6 or so months.


Or the data we have from Europe where they never closed (Sweden) or reopened the schools (most everywhere else).

We have done the experiment on closing schools. It leads to increased abuse, increased interaction with sexual predators, problems with getting food for those on free lunch, increased mental issues including suicidal ideation.

And Europe has done the reopening experiment, which led to less than expected COVID and little to no evidence of child to child or child to teacher spread.

We know what happens going down either path. It should just be a matter of choosing what is best for the kids.
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TXTransplant
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 10:38a, 7/19/20
I posted almost exactly the same thing in another thread. Closing schools to protect teachers comes at the expense of the health and safety of our kids - particularly those who are already vulnerable and underprivileged.
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burlesona
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In reply to TXTransplant • 11:11a, 7/19/20
AG
TXTransplant said:
BigOil said:
There may be a wide spectrum between death or no death. Simply not dying shouldn't be the only criteria. You could be asymptomatic, just have cold symptoms, have a wicked multi-day bed ridden flu analogy, or be knocked out weeks with long term damage.

Its not so black and white.


I think everyone here realizes that. But when it comes to making decisions about closing things - particularly schools - they are making decisions based on predictions of how many children might die, and those predictions don't make any sense based on the data we have over the past 6 or so months.


The decisions aren't about the kids dying, although some children have died from COVID and more will. The issue is that (as a parent of 3), kids are filthy and spread diseases like crazy. Put all the kids together and when one gets it soon they'll all get it.

The problem is that the kids will then spread it to all the teachers and parents and in many cases the grandparents who care for the kids outside of school hours. You can't socially distance from a child, at least not under a certain age.

So it's not about the kids dying, it's about the kids super-spreading and the older adults in their community dying in large numbers.

Maybe there's a reasonable path for colleges and high schools to reopen, as those are young adults who can grasp the situation and take action to minimize risk. But I don't know how far down in age that extends.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to burlesona • 11:23a, 7/19/20
AG
burlesona said:
TXTransplant said:
BigOil said:
There may be a wide spectrum between death or no death. Simply not dying shouldn't be the only criteria. You could be asymptomatic, just have cold symptoms, have a wicked multi-day bed ridden flu analogy, or be knocked out weeks with long term damage.

Its not so black and white.


I think everyone here realizes that. But when it comes to making decisions about closing things - particularly schools - they are making decisions based on predictions of how many children might die, and those predictions don't make any sense based on the data we have over the past 6 or so months.


The decisions aren't about the kids dying, although some children have died from COVID and more will. The issue is that (as a parent of 3), kids are filthy and spread diseases like crazy. Put all the kids together and when one gets it soon they'll all get it.

The problem is that the kids will then spread it to all the teachers and parents and in many cases the grandparents who care for the kids outside of school hours. You can't socially distance from a child, at least not under a certain age.

So it's not about the kids dying, it's about the kids super-spreading and the older adults in their community dying in large numbers.

Maybe there's a reasonable path for colleges and high schools to reopen, as those are young adults who can grasp the situation and take action to minimize risk. But I don't know how far down in age that extends.


Except that is not what the data out of Europe shows. Rather, it shows minimal risk of kid to kid and kid to adult transmission. Probably because kids are mostly asymptomatic and therefor less likely to spread.

Sweden kept schools below age 15 open the entire time. They modified HS. They found little to no evidence of kid to kid transmission and found teachers to catch it less than expected. I assume expected was based on the kids are super spreaders theory which appears to be false.

Germany reopened HS with the logic that kids that age are more capable of following the precautions.
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TXTransplant
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 11:36a, 7/19/20
BiochemAg97 said:
burlesona said:
TXTransplant said:
BigOil said:
There may be a wide spectrum between death or no death. Simply not dying shouldn't be the only criteria. You could be asymptomatic, just have cold symptoms, have a wicked multi-day bed ridden flu analogy, or be knocked out weeks with long term damage.

Its not so black and white.


I think everyone here realizes that. But when it comes to making decisions about closing things - particularly schools - they are making decisions based on predictions of how many children might die, and those predictions don't make any sense based on the data we have over the past 6 or so months.


The decisions aren't about the kids dying, although some children have died from COVID and more will. The issue is that (as a parent of 3), kids are filthy and spread diseases like crazy. Put all the kids together and when one gets it soon they'll all get it.

The problem is that the kids will then spread it to all the teachers and parents and in many cases the grandparents who care for the kids outside of school hours. You can't socially distance from a child, at least not under a certain age.

So it's not about the kids dying, it's about the kids super-spreading and the older adults in their community dying in large numbers.

Maybe there's a reasonable path for colleges and high schools to reopen, as those are young adults who can grasp the situation and take action to minimize risk. But I don't know how far down in age that extends.


Except that is not what the data out of Europe shows. Rather, it shows minimal risk of kid to kid and kid to adult transmission. Probably because kids are mostly asymptomatic and therefor less likely to spread.

Sweden kept schools below age 15 open the entire time. They modified HS. They found little to no evidence of kid to kid transmission and found teachers to catch it less than expected. I assume expected was based on the kids are super spreaders theory which appears to be false.

Germany reopened HS with the logic that kids that age are more capable of following the precautions.


Exactly.

And the Austin Public Health Authority did put out a notice this week that, if schools open, between 40-1370 children just in Travis County could die. He also mentioned the risk to teachers, but he didn't quantify it.

So, I can only presume that his decision to prohibit schools from opening was to "prevent" the deaths of children - yet none of the data we have (from the US or other countries) suggests that those numbers are at all supported or realistic. There have only been 30 deaths of children age 14 and under in the entire country since Feb 1. Italy, Spain, and other countries have reported similar numbers.
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Gig-Em2003
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In reply to PJYoung • 12:04p, 7/19/20
AG
PJYoung said:
aggie93 said:
Numbers above are for Travis County, numbers are heavily slanted to Central and East Austin.

Travis County Dashboard


No working from home for them.


The "heat map" for NYC earlier this year was the same. It wasn't Manhattan....it was the lower-class suburbs where the cases were.
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Aust Ag
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In reply to TXTransplant • 1:43p, 7/19/20
AG
I thought I misheard that on the news, about the "40-1370" deaths. I thought he was talking about possible Cases.

Where on earth did he pull those numbers from, there's not even that many children deaths in the entire country.

I hate the term "fear porn", but I guess that would be the definition.
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TXTransplant
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In reply to Aust Ag • 6:53p, 7/19/20
Aust Ag said:
I thought I misheard that on the news, about the "40-1370" deaths. I thought he was talking about possible Cases.

Where on earth did he pull those numbers from, there's not even that many children deaths in the entire country.

I hate the term "fear porn", but I guess that would be the definition.


https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/health-authority-in-person-teaching-could-lead-to-between-40-and-1370-student-deaths-in-travis-county/

I'd like to know how he came up with those numbers, too. I can only guess he used worse-case death rates for adults.
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Keller6Ag91
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In reply to aggie93 • 7:08p, 7/19/20
AG
aggie93 said:
Was looking over the Travis County Dashboard today as they are moving school back and the numbers are really interesting.

The numbers everyone talks about are the almost 17,000 Cases and 189 Deaths (1.3 million people in the County). The key is looking inside of those numbers:

  • 2% of cases (432) are to people 80+ yet 35% of Deaths (58) are from people 80+
  • 10% of cases (1,747) are to people under 20 (ie school age) yet ZERO (0) Deaths
  • 83% of deaths are for people over the age of 60

Looking at the map by Zip Code the cases are HEAVILY skewed to Central and East Austin, very few cases in West Austin yet Leander ISD (my school district) is basing their decisions on ALL of Travis County (even though much of the District is in Williamson). The numbers in West Austin simply do not support shut downs at all. Precautions certainly but there are hardly any cases much less a real risk to students or even the majority of teachers (few are over 50, virtually none over 60).

I'm fine with precautions, especially for the vulnerable but I don't see how shuttering schools can be justified. The numbers simply don't support it rationally.


This fits the rule for COVID (& the flu for that matter).
Gig'Em and God Bless,

JB'91
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