jebeka said:

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If true then that's well over 1% of the US population. I'm in sales and I interact with hundreds of people. I also have a pretty decent number of golf friends. I probably interact directly or indirectly with 1000 people every month. I don't have a single customer or friend who has tested positive. I've asked several customers and friend if the know anyone. One golf buddy had a very obese co-worker that caught it. Another friends ex wife that lives in New York caught it. I do not have a single relative that has caught it.

If we are up in the 1.3% range of the US population as confirmed cases I'd think that I would personally know 10-15 people and be aware of 50 cases where a friends family member or co-worker has it.

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That seems like a very strange statistical anomaly. I understand you being surprised by this anomaly, but when you say "if we are up in the 1.3% range" it sounds like you are suggesting that the number is incorrect or exaggerated in some way. While most have assumed there is in fact 3-10 times that number that have actually been infected, so 3.9% - 13% of the population may have been infected, you seem to be suggesting maybe it is less than the reported 1.3%. Am I correct regarding your suggestion/conclusion?

You may just be around people like I am. People I know aren't the types likely to get tested. Even with a cold or flu in the past, we'd just be the types to power through it. Now, obviously if we experienced flu like symptoms now, I'd stay home and isolate. But I'm just still not the type to go to the Dr, and I'd say the same for the majority of my family and friends unless we are feeling absolutely awful and fearful for life.

No one in my family. Two of my friends have it and only got tested because work made one of them. Only 1 co-worker I know has had it. Nobody else is confirmed. But it wouldn't shock me if half a dozen or more people I know have actually had it. Just not tested or were asymptomatic.

Also, you may very well know a few people that have got it, tested positive, but just didn't tell you or anyone and simply stayed home for a couple of weeks feeling fine. Wouldn't shock me if that's happened with 2-3 people I know, too.

In addition, the numbers go up with people around each other. Mass spreading events. For example, in a hypothetical world, you know exactly 100 people. There are 10,000 people in this world. 100 groups of 100. If 5 of those groups have a massive exposure and each have 50 test positive, that's 250 out of 10,000 people, or 2.5%. So you would think odds are, you would know 2-3 people out of your 100 friends who have it. But in reality, it's the two big exposures that make up the 2.5%. This is small scale, but in general how it works. Similar to how there shouldn't be 14 out of 25 guys testing positive, but did on the Marlins because they all hang out. Meanwhile, another group of 25 that hang out together have 0 out of 25.

That's great, I probably know around 20 that have it or had it.

I do think people have had it and didn't know it. My wife and I were sick with sinus issues for a week after we returned from a cruise on March 8th. Was that the Covid or was it just a standard cold? I guess maybe due to lack of testing a bunch of people I know may have had it and just passed it off as a standard winter/spring sinus issue.

What makes me question the data is that I don't know anyone and the majority of the people I've asked don't know anyone. I live in Tulsa so it's not a hot spot. We wear masks, we go to our local bar regularly but hang with our friends. There aren't many outsiders there. Some of the younger guys in our group likely don't social distance as much as they should. We've been in Destin, FL for a month and meet people at the beach who can't name a sole who has had it. We go to restaurants for lunch, not dinner to avoid crowds but we are at Home Depot and Walmart daily plus trips to the grocery store.

My question is when they report over 4 million cases are they counting positive tests or are they counting individuals? If a person tests positive and then tests 5 more times over 2 weeks before they test negative does that mean there are 5 positive cases and 1 negative or do they actually know it's the same person retaking a test and don't add it to the new cases?

RockOn said:

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jeffdjohnson said:

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We have detected around 4 million cases. In reality we are probably detecting only 10% of all actual cases. There have been around 40 million Americans who have been infected with COVID-10.

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Can you share the scientific study on this? I'd like to read it.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

Sorry about your grandmother.

I have known about 50 people that have had it, so far zero had to go to the hospital. Most were blue collar, essential workers. Not all in the best shape but most under 40.

It's a good question, I've assumed a person who may test 5 times (Once to confirm positive, maybe 1-4 times to confirm they are over it but first few times are still positive) only counts as ONE case. I hope that is true or the stat has little value.

jebeka said:

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I do think people have had it and didn't know it. My wife and I were sick with sinus issues for a week after we returned from a cruise on March 8th. Was that the Covid or was it just a standard cold? I guess maybe due to lack of testing a bunch of people I know may have had it and just passed it off as a standard winter/spring sinus issue.

What makes me question the data is that I don't know anyone and the majority of the people I've asked don't know anyone. I live in Tulsa so it's not a hot spot. We wear masks, we go to our local bar regularly but hang with our friends. There aren't many outsiders there. Some of the younger guys in our group likely don't social distance as much as they should. We've been in Destin, FL for a month and meet people at the beach who can't name a sole who has had it. We go to restaurants for lunch, not dinner to avoid crowds but we are at Home Depot and Walmart daily plus trips to the grocery store.

My question is when they report over 4 million cases are they counting positive tests or are they counting individuals? If a person tests positive and then tests 5 more times over 2 weeks before they test negative does that mean there are 5 positive cases and 1 negative or do they actually know it's the same person retaking a test and don't add it to the new cases?

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The answer to your last question may vary by location. I am also in Tulsa, and Tulsa County Health Department has stated that they carefully count by individual - not by tests. Mutiple PCR positive or later antibody positives for the same person are not added to the total.

RockOn said:

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jeffdjohnson said:

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We have detected around 4 million cases. In reality we are probably detecting only 10% of all actual cases. There have been around 40 million Americans who have been infected with COVID-10.

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Can you share the scientific study on this? I'd like to read it.

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40 million might be an overestimation by a little, unless the IFR is even lowers. But how can he share a scientific study on something when/if many don't get tested?

For starters, the CDC and nearly every study continues to show the same general numbers. 0.6-0.7%. Simple math shows that for 149k deaths, 0.6-0.7% is nearly 23 million. So I'd start with that number instead of 40 million.

Now, if the true death rate is 0.3%, then 40 or even 50 million might be correct. No way of truly knowing since so many, like myself, are very unlikely to get tested unless we just feel so bad we get scared

Quote:

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Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age.

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https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

jebeka said:

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If true then that's well over 1% of the US population. I'm in sales and I interact with hundreds of people. I also have a pretty decent number of golf friends. I probably interact directly or indirectly with 1000 people every month. I don't have a single customer or friend who has tested positive. I've asked several customers and friend if the know anyone. One golf buddy had a very obese co-worker that caught it. Another friends ex wife that lives in New York caught it. I do not have a single relative that has caught it.

If we are up in the 1.3% range of the US population as confirmed cases I'd think that I would personally know 10-15 people and be aware of 50 cases where a friends family member or co-worker has it.

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You probably know a bunch of people that have had it but you are not paying attention or they are not sharing.

I know at least 20 people that have had it and most don't go around telling everyone that they have it.

Mine are 50/50 customers in industrial plants And friends/family. I'd know for sure because there are deep restrictions. If it go into power plants, chemical plants, aviation maintenance plants, etc those people are told not to show up if you have anything. Everyone has their temperature checked before you can enter and interaction is restricted. I have access because they can't operate without me. Then, it's family and golf friends. We'd know if someone has it because they couldn't play golf or show up at happy hour every week. Then none of them know anyone for the most part.

Of the 20 people you know are they normal people in decent health under 70.

That's terrible. I'm sorry for your loss. Last year my mom passed with complications from COPD. My Aunt came to visit in ICU. She had a lung transplant a few years ago. About a month later she died. I think she caught something from the visit. Very sad situation when you want to see a person so close to you one more time and it costs you your life.

FWIW I know probably 20 people who have had it. Mostly college age kids as that's how old I am. All mostly mild cases. I know several who felt very sick for 1-3 days but all had felt fine within a week.

Ok, I do know a ton of people who were sick for a few days but none were tested. Even my wife and I were sick for a full week if not a little longer but never went to the doctor because it was just a cold or maybe a sinus infection. If that was Covid then what's the big deal? The people I deal with are mostly 30-70 and in good enough shape to work and/or play golf. Why are we shutting everything down and restricting businesses from operating if Covid is like a bad cold? If that was Covid then the flu is way worse. We don't shut down the economy for a bad flu season?

I get it that some people can die but sorry, that's life. People die from heart attacks, car wrecks, and diseases way before their time every year. Just add Covid to the list and move on. If Covid is like a bad cold, then let athletes play. They were allowed to play with a cold or flu before and it was just fine.

Not really. All I am trying to do is find multiple people who know 4-5 friends and family members that have had it and can give some reasonable expectations of what it's like. I've yet to find this from anyone and now I'm asking texags

Bruce Almighty said:

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The "I had Covid and it wasn't a big deal, so everything is an overreaction" posts are dumb. We may or may not be overreacting, but it should have nothing to do with individual cases. I would feel the same if someone said that the country needs to lock down until theres a vaccine because a family member died.

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The majority of people on here that have gotten Covid have recovered since they are younger and somewhat healthy. Besides obesity there is only one person I know that was higher risk and he has COPD and heart disease but he is 40 (former drug addict). For the majority of the population it will just be a week or two of illness.

But a lot of us have parents or grandparents that they have a much, much higher risk of severe illness or death. Those are who we need to protect since they are not just another number to us. We also have to remember life is not a zero sum game, unfortunately people will die from Covid.

You cannot only look at Covid deaths, you need to factory in suicides, unemployment (those two have historically been tied together), addiction, domestic abuse, child sexual abuse, and other physiological issues that have all skyrocketed. I have known 6 people that have committed suicide due to unemployment (and other issues I am sure but it wasn't until they got laid off before they killed themselves) and have seen the numbers on what is going on with children. This cannot continue.

Seems that no one is taking leadership and everyone keeps kicking the can down the road since it is an election year. Open up too much and people will call you a murderer, keep things closed down and people will say you are trying to destroy the economy. Someone up top needs to make some unpopular decisions based off of the numbers and not politics.

Old RV Ag said:

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jebeka said:

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Not really. All I am trying to do is find multiple people who know 4-5 friends and family members that have had it and can give some reasonable expectations of what it's like. I've yet to find this from anyone and now I'm asking texags

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Well, I know personally about 6 people with confirmed cases via tests. They ranged from mild cold like experience to hospitalization to death. There is no pattern - like mild was a young fit person and death was elderly with several underlying conditions - these weren't the cases.

I liken this disease to my combat experience in Nam. Ones with massive wounds lived and are enjoying their grandchildren while ones with what should have been 99% survivable died. Anyone trying to say this disease kills only elderly or those with pre-existing issues and young people just get the sniffles is trying to see the world in black and white as a "comforting" way to simplify something complex. Yes, there is a definite increasing risk scale but it's not absolute.

And for those with the idea of a certain amount of people dying is acceptable, think about using that logic in war. We aren't a country that uses cannon fodder.

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It's not that a certain amount of people dying is "acceptable" but I think many people there is just no alternative. This virus has been unleashed into society and I think it is basically impossible to stop it without destroying society.

I'm Joel. You know know me. I had it. Preferred over the flu.

Exactly. Whether some can bring themselves to admit it, that's basically the whole question(s). What deaths are acceptable and what efforts taken to prevent X amount of those deaths are acceptable? Unfortunately, we will never truly know the answer to that part so it's hard to get everyone on board with an exact answer of what is right/best for our country as a whole. I mean, after all, we go to war because we believe it's what is best for our country as a whole, even though it's obvious lives will be lost. Even if we aren't intentionally losing lives, or saying X amount is acceptable, it's still the decision to be made.

We all have the tipping point to what each mitigation effort suggested/enforced is worth doing, and what amount of lives need to be saved for each effort to be worth it. For example, if this virus killed 20k people total, no one would think we need to do anything. No social distancing, no masks, no job losses, no lockdowns, virtually no mentioning of it in the media and not a word about if from our government past the initial scare in March. So that alone proves that everyone believes that death toll is "acceptable" for us to live our normal lives. On the other hand, if the death tolls without mitigation would appear to be 5 million, I think just about everyone would agree things need to be done to reduce that. I just used two extremes as obviously neither number was going to happen.

Social distancing saving 50k lives? If I am being honest, that's not worth it for our country as a whole in many people's eyes. Social distancing saving 1 million lives? Most would probably agree that most of what we have done is worth it.

Masks saving 10k lives? Again, honestly, no, I'd burn mine today if I could. Masks saving 100klives? Yeah, lets keep them on a little longer shall we. Some won't admit that, but we all have a different idea of what efforts in our lives are worth saving others and what aren't. That's what the whole question should be? What is the best policy for America as a whole? Hint: That number isn't the least amount of Covid deaths with nothing else taken into account.

Thanks! That's what I'm looking for. It's definitely a crap shoot if you get it. It sounds like all you can do is try to stay as fit as possible so that if you get it you have a better chance of not being the small percent that die. Then go live life like before this crap while staying away from the obvious uncontrolled contact with individuals.

TV misrepresents everything and has an agenda to maximize views. I'd prefer to here from normal people that have experienced Covid or know people that have had it.

Thanks Joel!