How many people would have died of heart disease or cancer and wound up dying with covid and went down as a covid death?

My great uncle in his 80s discontinued treatment for prostate cancer and ended up dying of Covid. Ain't that just the worst luck...

Population of Texas is 30 million.

9,000 deaths is around 300 deaths per million.

Compare that with a bad flu season like 2018 with 80,000 US deaths, or around 240 deaths per million.

We are on a solid downward trend in Texas, with most deaths at the border.

This is less deadly in Texas than the flu of 1957 or the Spanish flu of 1918. For Texas, it's like a record season of the seasonal flu.

Are you willing to entertain the possibility that our precautionary practices might be lowering the death count?

deadbq03 said:

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Are you willing to entertain the possibility that our precautionary practices might be lowering the death count?

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I think it's safe to assume we have lowered the death count by slowing the spread initially which has allowed for better treatment. The jury is still out though, for other aspects of restrictions and fear.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/coronavirus-pandemic-houston-hospitals-defy-doomsday-predictions/

"According to McCarthy, Memorial Hermann saw a 30 percent decline in the number of heart attacks and strokes it saw during April and May. "There's nothing about COVID that protects people from heart attacks and strokes," he stated."

How many people are dying at home from isolation and fear when they usually would have gone to a hospital? Not to mention suicides, substance abuse, etc, which will be felt long after the virus is mitigated.

GAC06 said:

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deadbq03 said:

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Are you willing to entertain the possibility that our precautionary practices might be lowering the death count?

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I think it's safe to assume we have lowered the death count by slowing the spread initially which has allowed for better treatment. The jury is still out though, for other aspects of restrictions and fear.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/coronavirus-pandemic-houston-hospitals-defy-doomsday-predictions/

"According to McCarthy, Memorial Hermann saw a 30 percent decline in the number of heart attacks and strokes it saw during April and May. "There's nothing about COVID that protects people from heart attacks and strokes," he stated."

How many people are dying at home from isolation and fear when they usually would have gone to a hospital? Not to mention suicides, substance abuse, etc, which will be felt long after the virus is mitigated.

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And depression, suicide, extra job loss, potential increase in violent crime, long term health effects of not getting routine check ups due to fear, long term mental effects of social distancing, especially for children, etc. Will the economy recover quicker or slower depending on what we do? Will the 20-25% burnout prove correct, even with minimal mitigation or does it require continued lockdowns? Etc. So many unknowns and there is no perfect answer.

We all have our cut off to what is worth it. For example, we all know none of us believed this was worth 30-50k deaths, because we sacrificed that many for the flu each year to live normal. So no two people will agree on what all is worth it. Is it potentially 250 jobs and 50 kids suffering depression for each life saved(Made up numbers, just hypothetical)? Or does someone else say even if we lost 1000 jobs and 5000 kids being out of school are worth one life(again, made up hypothetical)?. Which means this almost always goes back to your inherent beliefs/ideology.

Do you choose individual choices, liberty, and the ability to do what you believe is best for you and your family?

Or do you believe in giving some of those choices up for more safety, caution, to the state/government/pressure from others even if none of them may know what's' best for your life? .

Neither is necessarily right or wrong. Just different ideologies. Mine will always go back to each individual and business needing to do what is best for them. It would take something a lot worse than covid for me to change my mind, even though it may be sad what is/has happened to others.

At some point all the people vulnerable to it are going to be thinned out, and it will be much less likely to transmit, and reduced to localized flare ups.

Once your numbers of highly vulnerable and non resistant are reduced in density or exposure (the remainder presumable still social distancing), this thing should tail off rapidly, as it won't have a population to sustain itself amongst.

You raise a lot of good points. Thanks for the discussion.

I'd fully agree that in hindsight, our full shutdown here in Texas back in March was completely unnecessary.

We'd probably agree or be able to meet in the middle on other points as well, given enough time and beer.

My biggest issue throughout this whole ordeal has been the attitude of many that basically treats the fields of Epidemiology and Microbiology as if they're alchemy or witchcraft. Efforts to try to compare this to the flu fit that attitude, so I feel compelled to speak out about that.

What the government ought to have done to respond to Covid is a political debate that's worth having. What individuals ought to do to respond is what bothers me... way too many people don't want to sacrifice an ounce of comfort for the possibility that it could save someone's life. It's more convenient to deny basic science about germ spreading than strap on a mask when in public.

For me, if the pursuit of happiness degrades into raising a middle finger to everyone else, then someone has to wear the daddy pants and set some boundaries.

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way too many people don't want to sacrifice an ounce of comfort for the possibility that it could save someone's life

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By this logic I shouldn't get in my car to go to work. I may drive perfectly safe but someone else may make a mistake and I could kill them. I certainly shouldn't drive a truck. No way I should play pick up basketball, especially with people over 50, they could suffer a heart attack or stroke. Inviting people over to swim is way out of the question, especially if their kids are under 6. I need to assume no one takes any responsibility for themselves and take it upon myself to protect them.

Sorry to be rude but "possibility" and "could" are way too vague for me. I'm not running around shooting my gun in the air or driving drunk, but I should be able to reasonably live my life without worrying about possibly maybe killing someone. And no, it's not reasonable to wear a mask every time I leave my house no matter how much you guys want to try to minimize it.

deadbq03 said:

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My biggest issue throughout this whole ordeal has been the attitude of many that basically treats the fields of Epidemiology and Microbiology as if they're alchemy or witchcraft. Efforts to try to compare this to the flu fit that attitude, so I feel compelled to speak out about that.

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On a national level, the death toll of this disease does in fact compare to past pandemics, like the Spanish flu or the 1959 flu. And, in Texas, we have done a great job of protecting vulnerable people, and the death toll does look like an extreme season of influenza. The models predicting around 1 million US deaths that we saw in March were way, way off.

The initial analysis put together by the OP doesn't compare to past healthcare crises, so it gives a false perspective.

For the majority of people that catch this that are not old or obese, this thing is not so bad. It is very dangerous to the vulnerable. And, there are concerns about long-term impacts like myocarditus, which I understand. We still have a lot to learn about this disease, and we are drinking from a firehose.

My main comment was that comparing COVID to stroke and car accidents isn't very helpful when considering the seriousness of this disease, and comparing it to the wreck we have made of the economy.

(BTW, If people want the average guy to treat this seriously, and not like alchemy or witchcraft, then the CDC shouldn't be coming out saying we shouldn't have school, but political protests are OK.)