A lot of people are asking about reinfection risk. It has been discussed in other places. I wanted a place that was easy to link to and discuss. Here is the general consensus:

1) We don't know for 100% sure that there will be medium or long term immunity; but

2) Based on all of the data to date, it is very unlikely that a person will get reinfected unless they have some other immune system deficiency.

The best news is the article from nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

In this article:
1) 36 out of 36 patients that had recovered from COVID had T-cells that reacted to the virus;
2) 23 out of 23 patients that had recovered from SAR in 2003 (17 years ago!) had T-cells that reacted to the virus;

Earlier news from cell: https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf

In this article,

1) 20 out of 20 patients that had recovered from COVID had immune systems that recognized COVID proteins.
2) Two teams looked at uninfected patients. One team reported that 1/3rd of uninfected patients had T-helper cells that responded to COVID. The other team reported that 1/2 of uninfected patients had T-helper cells that responded to COVID. However, the response of the immune systems of non-exposed patients, was different. It's pretty technical, but it was a different type of cell response than the recovered patients.

Cell and Science are two of the primer scientific journals in the world. I know of no other serious study that has come out and refuted these findings. So, for the lab analysis we have from these two studies, 56 out of 56 patients that have recovered from COVID have T-helper cells that respond to COVID. 56 is not a large sample size, but batting 1.000 in these types of studies is rare. Having robust T-helper cell response is a strong indication of the ability to fight off the disease.

In short, we don't know 100%, but we are pretty sure, that people will not likely get reinfected again in the medium term, and reasonably sure they will not likely get reinfected over a period of decades, unless they have some other condition that compromises their immune system.

I am not a medical doctor by trade, but have worked around patents in the virology industry. I'm interested in anyone else's comments / critiques if they have a different interpretation, or a suggested clarification.

I'm no expert,and I admit I've always erred on the positive side of things with the data I've seen regarding covid because to me, that's just simply the better way to live regardless. But I think it's been pretty clear re-infection would completely have jacked up areas like Sweden's strategy, along with making it significantly more difficult for places to rebound from a big wave like we are beginning to do here.

You don't get areas like NYC and Sweden dropping so much just by simply getting lucky. Or just by wearing masks(which is no more prevalent in NYC than it is in Texas. The difference? NTC already hit their 20-25% number a while back. We are just now there and trending towards it) It's because the virus runs out of hosts and the previous hosts are extremely unlikely to host it again. At the very least to the point where it's likely a very minor case and they aren't contagious.

Batting a thousand is impressive. Do I expect that to translate absolutely to everyone? No. That's the problem though is people are focusing on the outliers who might reinfect versus the majority who show this type of response.

Here's how my simple mind looks at it. . .

COVID is basically a cold virus

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/cold-guide/common_cold_causes

Quote:

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It's likely that someday you'll have a close encounter with one of these types:

• Rhinovirus
• Coronavirus
• RSV and parainfluenza

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The difference is with 19 we haven't been exposed to it.

Just like a regular cold, some are light and some hit you hard, which is a factor of how many times your body has been exposed to them and how it has learned to handle them.

And, like a regular cold, when you get over it you usually don't get another one for at least a year if you think about it.

My dad had a coronavirus about 18 months ago (different one than 19) and he's in his '80s. Damn near killed him and took a good 2-3 months to get over and caused a terrible rash when he cleared it. Had to do breathing treatments and everything.

So, to me, COVID-19 is with us forever and it will continue to pass through the population. Difference is, the longer it is around the better our bodies will be at dealing with it.