Gizzards said:

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Simple lies are easier to sell than complex truths.

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Epiphany.

Stuff like this basically is just comparing covid to nothing.

Nothing else matters. Bottom line covid numbers are the only thing in the world to consider.

Also, it mentions asthma even that that has been debunked as "high" risk. Just all kinds of misinformation.

OK, one more example (OP has me on a rant ). Just a week ago, I was responding to a pediatrician's complaint during lunch that the Administration had badly "flubbed" the response to COVID, and how much worse our situation was than the rest of the world. When I pointed out to him that our numbers of deaths per 100,000 population were in line with many industrialized nations that have good data, he told me that the only number that mattered was total cases. When I pointed out to him that we have tested more than any other country in the world,
How does Testing in the U.S. Compare to Other Countries?
he tried to deny that. He then told me that people in the U.S. cannot even get access to testing, I opened up my phone and showed him the text that I had just received from a friend and patient telling me that he and his wife had just received their negative test results from that morning's test (text was less than 30 minutes old, they had both come down with COVID-19 two weeks earlier and were now asymptomatic). To that, he had no reply, other than to state that one example didn't mean anything (true), and that if Trump had made a nationwide mask mandate (I didn't feel the need to ask him if he thought that was Constitutional), we wouldn't be in such a bad way.

This is a man with a B.S. from University of Virginia and an M.D. who is Board Certified in pediatrics.

I do agree that it is a lot easier to handle a pandemic when you run a dictatorship (China), and can basically weld people into their homes or South Korea, where people don't mind giving up their numbers and acquiescing to mandatory self isolation with government oversight when they test positive. We live in a free and open society. It is a very delicate balance between rights and responsibilities in the world, and I do not envy any politician right now.

Points being:
Math is hard.
We are in an election year.
Media is ALL biased. Facts take a back seat to their agenda.
People look at what is happening through the eyes of the echo chambers and preconceived notions they surround themselves with.
I am on a RANT.

I posted the same thing on facebook as here, and I was amazed how many of my educated, liberal friends immediately protested the numbers, not because they were wrong, but because "they will still spread the virus!!!"

Nowhere is there an understanding of herd immunity within the college world, and how this is a good thing, especially when isolated from other more at risk populations.

This shouldn't be surprising to anyone. Just look at some of the threads on this board from back in April. We had people freaking out about kids playing together and others who were too scared to go to the grocery store.

It just reinforces my belief that a significant number of Americans are too stupid to be trusted with raw data. We'd have been much better off if we buried our numbers like China.

Kool said:

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OK, one more example (OP has me on a rant ). Just a week ago, I was responding to a pediatrician's complaint during lunch that the Administration had badly "flubbed" the response to COVID, and how much worse our situation was than the rest of the world. When I pointed out to him that our numbers of deaths per 100,000 population were in line with many industrialized nations that have good data, he told me that the only number that mattered was total cases. When I pointed out to him that we have tested more than any other country in the world,
How does Testing in the U.S. Compare to Other Countries?
he tried to deny that. He then told me that people in the U.S. cannot even get access to testing, I opened up my phone and showed him the text that I had just received from a friend and patient telling me that he and his wife had just received their negative test results from that morning's test (text was less than 30 minutes old, they had both come down with COVID-19 two weeks earlier and were now asymptomatic). To that, he had no reply, other than to state that one example didn't mean anything (true), and that if Trump had made a nationwide mask mandate (I didn't feel the need to ask him if he thought that was Constitutional), we wouldn't be in such a bad way.

This is a man with a B.S. from University of Virginia and an M.D. who is Board Certified in pediatrics.

I do agree that it is a lot easier to handle a pandemic when you run a dictatorship (China), and can basically weld people into their homes or South Korea, where people don't mind giving up their numbers and acquiescing to mandatory self isolation with government oversight when they test positive. We live in a free and open society. It is a very delicate balance between rights and responsibilities in the world, and I do not envy any politician right now.

Points being:
Math is hard.
We are in an election year.
Media is ALL biased. Facts take a back seat to their agenda.
People look at what is happening through the eyes of the echo chambers and preconceived notions they surround themselves with.
I am on a RANT.

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We all know pediatricians are dummies anyway!

Good on you to discuss the facts with this misinformed physician though!

No, Kid Doc, not YOU. One of my best friends from TAMU is a Pediatrician and he's a lot smarter than I. I follow a lot of what you say on here, and have learned from you. Honestly.

My point is not that the pediatrician is uneducated or unintelligent (quite the contrary), it is that his sources (mostly CNN, which he feels is center) and his filter are different than mine, and that is influencing his viewpoint. I won't even go into the argument I started and then gave up on with him and a psychiatrist that Biden is suffering mental decline ("no, he isn't, he just has a stutter and is very passionate about his viewpoints and his brain runs so fast that he can't keep up"). Aye caramba.

Full disclosure: I hate pretty much all of the media. Well, not the WSJ

People have become too blind to their politics and only see what they want to see or want to agree with. Never have I seen so many people be shown the numbers and then argue against the fact. Most would start talking about feelings or that the USA is not like any other country so the studies from other countries do not matter. The fact that over 80% of people get their information from social media platforms and never fact check anything on their own means they are intellectually lazy.

I think another issue is so many people have been taught to be the victim and through this many live in fear. See the kids under 24 being so afraid of a virus that for them has a 99.6+% survival rate yet a very large amount think they will die. Others are responsible for their outcomes, not themselves. We each have the choice to live in fear or let fear control us, like most other things in their life they have chosen something external to control them.

If a doctor is not aware of the current testing situation, current fatality rates, and any information like that they are failing at their profession. There are thousands of published medical studies published regarding COVID and it is their job to be up to date as possible. If a doctor is blaming Trump they need to reevaluate their mindset, blaming whoever is in the White House does not help them treat people. I have spoken with a few doctors and the liberal ones also blame Trump, when I show them the numbers they say I am not a doctor and have no idea what they are talking about. This pisses me off since they are letting politics dictate profession.

Math is hard, research takes time, either be informed or let others control your decisions
Election years suck
Media is biased but luckily we have hundreds of other countries releasing their information that is easily obtainable
If politics dictates medical treatments we have failed

Under 24 is probably closer to a 99.999% actual IFR. But I agree with you.

15-24 survival rate is 99.99943% according to the CDC. Heard that on the radio yesterday.

Kool said:

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OK, one more example (OP has me on a rant ). Just a week ago, I was responding to a pediatrician's complaint during lunch that the Administration had badly "flubbed" the response to COVID, and how much worse our situation was than the rest of the world. When I pointed out to him that our numbers of deaths per 100,000 population were in line with many industrialized nations that have good data, he told me that the only number that mattered was total cases. When I pointed out to him that we have tested more than any other country in the world,
How does Testing in the U.S. Compare to Other Countries?
he tried to deny that. He then told me that people in the U.S. cannot even get access to testing, I opened up my phone and showed him the text that I had just received from a friend and patient telling me that he and his wife had just received their negative test results from that morning's test (text was less than 30 minutes old, they had both come down with COVID-19 two weeks earlier and were now asymptomatic). To that, he had no reply, other than to state that one example didn't mean anything (true), and that if Trump had made a nationwide mask mandate (I didn't feel the need to ask him if he thought that was Constitutional), we wouldn't be in such a bad way.

This is a man with a B.S. from University of Virginia and an M.D. who is Board Certified in pediatrics.

I do agree that it is a lot easier to handle a pandemic when you run a dictatorship (China), and can basically weld people into their homes or South Korea, where people don't mind giving up their numbers and acquiescing to mandatory self isolation with government oversight when they test positive. We live in a free and open society. It is a very delicate balance between rights and responsibilities in the world, and I do not envy any politician right now.

Points being:
Math is hard.
We are in an election year.
Media is ALL biased. Facts take a back seat to their agenda.
People look at what is happening through the eyes of the echo chambers and preconceived notions they surround themselves with.
I am on a RANT.

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Perhaps the best post I have seen on the topic

P.U.T.U said:

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If a doctor is not aware of the current testing situation, current fatality rates, and any information like that they are failing at their profession. There are thousands of published medical studies published regarding COVID and it is their job to be up to date as possible. If a doctor is blaming Trump they need to reevaluate their mindset, blaming whoever is in the White House does not help them treat people. I have spoken with a few doctors and the liberal ones also blame Trump, when I show them the numbers they say I am not a doctor and have no idea what they are talking about. This pisses me off since they are letting politics dictate profession.

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This. No offense to the docs on here (I am married to an Aggie doc). But just because you have a medical degree doesn't mean that you are not prone to the biases the rest of us are. My wife knows some very smart people that fall into this category, who let their biases overtake their medical knowledge. Or in some cases, use their medical training and knowledge to advance their agenda....the non-practicing docs who are basically politicians. The worst kind.

Thank goodness for the large majority of physicians out there who are simply looking out for their patients best interests and not out there spouting nonsense all over social media.

Compared to engineering and math majors?

I think it's been a bad set of reporting from the start. The fact still remains if you are old this thing is very serious, and if you are fat and somewhat old it's serious. It's going to still kill a lot of people that had a lot of time left. It's still going to leave some with medium to long range complications.

Everyone else outside that risk threshold, should be able to just mask up and go back to doing what they are doing, but for some reason we feel like we need to defend against the 0.1% of cases that fall out of that range.

I favor something like Age+BMI > 100 you need to shelter in place as this thing has your number. The 100 is pulled out of my ass but seems about right. It's 100 +/- 10 I figure.

culdeus said:

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I think it's been a bad set of reporting from the start. The fact still remains if you are old this thing is very serious, and if you are fat and somewhat old it's serious. It's going to still kill a lot of people that had a lot of time left. It's still going to leave some with medium to long range complications.

Everyone else outside that risk threshold, should be able to just mask up and go back to doing what they are doing, but for some reason we feel like we need to defend against the 0.1% of cases that fall out of that range.

I favor something like Age+BMI > 100 you need to shelter in place as this thing has your number. The 100 is pulled out of my ass but seems about right. It's 100 +/- 10 I figure.

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I love your calculation, and I think your ass is in about the right place from which to pull that. I would refine it a bit and in the process lose a few math-challenged people. Age of about 70 and BMI of about 35 start significantly increasing your risk. I would say to add up Age + 2X BMI and use 140 as your "stay the hell at home" threshold. I am married, so I have no pride. Ergo, not interested in having my name at the front of the index. Could we settle on the Culdeus Kool COVID Confinement Calculation?

Kool said:

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culdeus said:

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I think it's been a bad set of reporting from the start. The fact still remains if you are old this thing is very serious, and if you are fat and somewhat old it's serious. It's going to still kill a lot of people that had a lot of time left. It's still going to leave some with medium to long range complications.

Everyone else outside that risk threshold, should be able to just mask up and go back to doing what they are doing, but for some reason we feel like we need to defend against the 0.1% of cases that fall out of that range.

I favor something like Age+BMI > 100 you need to shelter in place as this thing has your number. The 100 is pulled out of my ass but seems about right. It's 100 +/- 10 I figure.

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I love your calculation, and I think your ass is in about the right place from which to pull that. I would refine it a bit and in the process lose a few math-challenged people. Age of about 70 and BMI of about 35 start significantly increasing your risk. I would say to add up Age + 2X BMI and use 140 as your "stay the hell at home" threshold. I am married, so I have no pride. Ergo, not interested in having my name at the front of the index. Could we settle on the Culdeus Kool COVID Confinement Calculation?

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That makes way more sense than the garbage that has been pushed forward the last couple of months

culdeus said:

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I think I would try to use 100 as a top end, it's a relatable number.

• Females: I think Age+BMI works well
• Males: Age/2 + BMIx2 seems to reflect the additional risk of adipose tissue in the mid-section.

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84.2 Culdeus/Kool Index!!! Party time! Let's go watch some Aggie football and tailgate!

What about comorbidity issues? I have none, but I have seen diabetes disproportionately present when looking at COVID death stats.

Diabetes gives medium sized blood vessel disease and diminished immune function, both of which adversely affect outcomes with COVID and virtually any infection

Great idea, need a med student in need of publishing a paper to gather data and see how well it works out. There is probably a way of calculating that if your CKCCC score is >120 your hospitalization rate is X and mortality rate is Y. Would be useful in talking to the legions of morbidly obese that come in but again doubt that would change behavior.

One thing I wonder is whether or not a lot of young people are becoming indignant about seeing our national debt and deficit skyrocket, knowing that they will have to pay it back, and yet the disease predominantly affects older people (in Massachusetts, which had a great website with data, the average COVID death was 82!). This isn't like the Spanish flu, which killed otherwise healthy people who were in the prime of young adulthood. Or are young people oblivious to this fact? I am not trying to make a judgment call about just how much the government should or should not shut down the economy and pay people to stay home, there is a "better" Forum for that discussion.

I don't think the majority of people in their 20s understand the economy, probably a reason why a large portion are for socialism, more so than any generation before us. Even more so with the majority of them leaning left that gets the majority of the news from social media. The government will just print more money.

I think it has to do more with mentality, they were brought up thinking they were the victim, to be outraged, and to get equal everything. Where as the WW2 generation was completely different, they found a way or made one. Those people lived through the Spanish flu and a world war and that attitude led us to win that war and to be the economic leader of the world.

I want a future to come back to. I want the 350+ million (in 10 years) that do come out of Covid to be better off. The 100k to 600k(whatever the number may be) that we MAY save with all these measures, a mere 0.01% to 0.2% of our current population, and even less of our population 10 years from now, who many of which will be gone in the next 2-4 years, shouldn't be affecting the other 350 million people's future. It's actually kind of asinine when you break down what we are doing here. It make one sound heartless in these times, but as others have said. We have been through worse diseases with less mitigation strategies, and came out stronger on the other side. We've never had the mentality we have now where we all try to keep each other safe. And yet, our population continues to increase at alarming levels and our average age of death gets older throughout time. And likely both continue with or without covid, a vaccine, wearing masks, etc.

This is a sad pandemic. It was causing destruction one way or another. I'm not happy with what all we've done to try to play god. I know many in today's day and age disagree. I'm sure many of the non-vocal crowd agree with me, they are just afraid to say it out loud for fear of looking like a monster.