'Superspreading' Events - 10-20% of people responsible for 80% of spread

2,236 Views | 9 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by AggieChemist
etxag02
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Quote:

As scientists have learned more about COVID-19, it has become clear that so-called superspreader incidentsin which one person infects a disproportionate number of other individualshave played an oversized role in the transmission of the virus that causes the disease. The Boston conference and the funeral in Georgia were among several superspreader events that played "a notable role in the early U.S. spread of COVID-19," according to a report by Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In fact, research on actual cases, as well as models of the pandemic, indicate that between 10 and 20 percent of infected people are responsible for 80 percent of the coronavirus's spread.
Quote:

The evidence about superspreading activities has led researchers to believe they are responsible for much of the new coronavirus's transmission. "All of the data I'm seeing so far suggest that if you tamp down the superspreader events, the growth rate of the infections stops very, very quickly," Scarpino says. "We saw in Seattle that there were at least a couple of introductions that did not lead to new cases"implying that the virus can fade out if it is denied circumstances for spreading.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-superspreading-events-drive-most-covid-19-spread1/

No Big Event, Aggies.


Goodbull_19
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AG
Makes sense, typical Pareto distribution.

Anecdotal experiences also agree with this.

I have known several people to get married this summer. Most of the weddings I never heard of anyone getting covid from it (maybe it happened, but never in any mass numbers). Even though at least two of those weddings I heard there was a covid positive person who had attended, I never heard any cases of them transmitted/others catching it there. Except for one wedding. One wedding, I knew of at least 30 people who got it at that wedding. My belief is there was a superspreader there.

Ever since that experience, I have been a big believer in the idea of superspreaders.
Aggie95
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AG
now if we can just find a way to identify them and make them wear big red x's on their chest....
agsalaska
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Aggie95 said:

now if we can just find a way to identify them and make them wear big red x's on their chest....
Bells
ExpressAg11
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AG
You're absolutely right. Had same thing happen to my family. Over 40 of my friends/family members got it from a wedding they attended. Both my parents, aunts, uncles, cousins.

There didn't seem to be any rhyme or reason on who got it. My sister and her husband sat at the same table as my parents but never got it. Even had a cousin that shared a cigar with someone that tested positive and he didn't get it either.
Carolin_Gallego
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Goodbull_19 said:

Makes sense, typical Pareto distribution.

Anecdotal experiences also agree with this.

I have known several people to get married this summer. Most of the weddings I never heard of anyone getting covid from it (maybe it happened, but never in any mass numbers). Even though at least two of those weddings I heard there was a covid positive person who had attended, I never heard any cases of them transmitted/others catching it there. Except for one wedding. One wedding, I knew of at least 30 people who got it at that wedding. My belief is there was a superspreader there.

Ever since that experience, I have been a big believer in the idea of superspreaders.
Are you implying there are 'super' infectious people? I don't think that's what the article is suggesting. The report says there are a combination of 'factors' that make an 'event' a 'Superspreading Event'. Other events they studied had spread but the virus fizzled out. The scientific community is still trying to hone in on all the aspects of these 'factors'.
ExpressAg11
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AG
It sounds like the article is saying specific people, not an "event" or gathering itself:

" In which one person infects a disproportionate number of other individuals"
Sq 17
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To infect a lot of people A Person has to go to a place where there are lots people and probably ignore social distancing rules while there
etxag02
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ExpressAg11 said:

It sounds like the article is saying specific people, not an "event" or gathering itself:

" In which one person infects a disproportionate number of other individuals"
It's both. Some individuals seem to develop higher amounts of the virus in their system, upping their odds of transmitting it to others, but the incubation time (people are most infections before or immediately upon the onset of symptoms), the infected's behavior, the behavior of others and the environment are seen as bigger factors to superspreading events. The number of people at the event is important environmental factor. Air flow is another important environmental factor because the virus can aerosolize very easily from breathing, speaking, coughing, sneezing, etc and can linger in the air after an infectious person has left and can contain infectious virus particles for up to three hours.
Capitol Ag
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AG
Goodbull_19 said:

Makes sense, typical Pareto distribution.

Anecdotal experiences also agree with this.

I have known several people to get married this summer. Most of the weddings I never heard of anyone getting covid from it (maybe it happened, but never in any mass numbers). Even though at least two of those weddings I heard there was a covid positive person who had attended, I never heard any cases of them transmitted/others catching it there. Except for one wedding. One wedding, I knew of at least 30 people who got it at that wedding. My belief is there was a superspreader there.

Ever since that experience, I have been a big believer in the idea of superspreaders.
Moral to the story: Don't let your wife drag you to weddings!
AggieChemist
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AG
I went to a wedding in July of 1998 and got married. I have avoided them on principle ever since.
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