How are we doing compared to European democracies (bottom line, not pointing fingers)

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11:06a, 9/13/20
AG
EUROPE'S COVID RESPONSE EFFORTS COMPARED TO COVID RESPONSE IN THE UNITED STATES

EUROPE (Excluding Russia)
598,500,000 Population of Europe
193,937 Deaths from COVID in Europe
3,086 Population per COVID Death in Europe
324 Deaths per 1 Million population in Europe

UNITED STATES
331,400,000 Population of the United States
198,179 Death from COVID in the USA
1,672 Population per COVID Death in the USA
598 Deaths per 1 million population in the USA


COMPARISON
598 324 = 267 more deaths per million of population in the USA compared to Europe.

Multiply that times the 331.4 million population of the United States and you get more than 88,000 more deaths with the United States response compared to Europe's response efforts.


The estimated breakdown of those ADDITIONAL 88,000+ American lives lost
1% are in their 20s or younger 880
2% in their 30s 1,760
5% in their 40s 4,400
12% in their 50s 10,560
20% in their 60s 17,600
25% in their 70s 22,000
35% in their 80s or older 30,800
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amercer
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11:16a, 9/13/20
AG
I think they've definitely handled it better, but it's not really about the numbers. Europeans have a lot more trust in their scientific and political leadership than we do here. So they can do things like wear masks AND open schools, without too much protest (an interesting counterpoint to that is the large anti vax movement in Germany which I had no idea existed)

I would like to know why some of the smaller northern counties had such high per capita death rates though.
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fightingfarmer09
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11:25a, 9/13/20
We have also been very liberal when declaring a Covid death. Whereas countries like Germany (go look at the early threads of this board) were extremely limiting in declaring a death. So those numbers are meaningless really.

Europeans are very willing to follow government edicts without question, but I don't see how one would look at that as a positive and not a sad state of their government dependence.

Also, Europeans are actually VERY hostile to many scientific developments. Strong anti vaccine movements, the most restrictive agricultural regulations on the planet, and stringent consumer product regulations.
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H2SAag
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11:43a, 9/13/20
AG
We are fat and unhealthy
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to H2SAag • 12:27p, 9/13/20
AG
Houston2AngeloAg said:
We are fat and unhealthy
That pretty well sums up the differences for the most part.

We can debate the differences in Europeans and Americans and how we respond to the government, etc. But the fact is Europeans are generally a lot less inclined to be obese. Hell, a large bit of the complaining I've seen from people I know is the wanting to go eat out and go to the bars again with no restrictions.

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Teslag
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In reply to H2SAag • 12:33p, 9/13/20
AG
Houston2AngeloAg said:
We are fat and unhealthy


Yep.


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Belton Ag
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In reply to AgE Doc • 1:15p, 9/13/20
AG
AgE Doc said:
EUROPE'S COVID RESPONSE EFFORTS COMPARED TO COVID RESPONSE IN THE UNITED STATES

EUROPE (Excluding Russia)
598,500,000 Population of Europe
193,937 Deaths from COVID in Europe
3,086 Population per COVID Death in Europe
324 Deaths per 1 Million population in Europe

UNITED STATES
331,400,000 Population of the United States
198,179 Death from COVID in the USA
1,672 Population per COVID Death in the USA
598 Deaths per 1 million population in the USA


COMPARISON
598 324 = 267 more deaths per million of population in the USA compared to Europe.

Multiply that times the 331.4 million population of the United States and you get more than 88,000 more deaths with the United States response compared to Europe's response efforts.


The estimated breakdown of those ADDITIONAL 88,000+ American lives lost
1% are in their 20s or younger 880
2% in their 30s 1,760
5% in their 40s 4,400
12% in their 50s 10,560
20% in their 60s 17,600
25% in their 70s 22,000
35% in their 80s or older 30,800
Are you really attributing the additional 88,000 deaths to the "response efforts"?

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DadHammer
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In reply to AgE Doc • 2:16p, 9/13/20
AG
You can't trust any countries numbers.
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The_Fox
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In reply to H2SAag • 3:07p, 9/13/20
Houston2AngeloAg said:
We are fat and unhealthy
And people should be allowed reap what they sowed.
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DTP02
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5:44p, 9/13/20
AG
Set aside that it's very difficult to get an apples to apples comparison between entities which track and count using different methodologies for this discussion, although that is a big disclaimer.

I think you have to separate out the NY deaths, and maybe those seeded by NY like NJ, to truly compare the US response to European response.

You can argue about the federal and different state responses here and there, but what NY did was gross negligence.


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deadbq03
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9:00p, 9/13/20
AG
To me the main difference is two things: 1) Obesity, 2) Healthcare systems.

If you want to discuss individualism vs collectivism, then you need to contrast Asian countries with US/Europe.
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ttuhscaggie
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10:56p, 9/13/20
AG
Let's not kid ourselves. Go spend a couple weeks anywhere in Western Europe. Try on some clothes, eat the food, ride a bicycle to work everyday... The fact that we're only +88,000 deaths higher is damn near miraculous. I saw a 650lb patient in my clinic the other day. That doesn't happen in Europe, just sayin
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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ORAggieFan
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11:27p, 9/13/20
Really need to look at deaths above average for the year or even better months of life lost. This measures overall response, which will account for more than just Covid deaths. This should be a two year review to see how depression and addiction along with delaying medical procedures affect the numbers. The US policies will kill more than Covid.
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jenn96
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11:08a, 9/14/20
AG
There is no one reason.

1. Every country uses a different standard of determining COVID deaths. It's not just COVID; the criteria for infant mortality (for example) is completely different from country to country. So while you get a generally useful metric. it's not apples to apples and in some countries will be significantly different.

2. Americans are way too fat. Fat and the associated problems it brings make COVID much more dangerous. This is not even remotely debatable and America are much fatter than Europeans or Asians, especially once you get into 40+ BMI levels.

3. We are much more independent. We have a federalist system where every state has the ability to set their own laws and processes. We don't have any easy to implement constitutional provisions for benevolent dictatorship even in an emergency, generally speaking. So states had the freedom to send infected patients back into nursing homes, for example.

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aggiebrad94
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11:02a, 9/15/20
AG
Can we just pretend that New York didn't happen when comparing the US to anyone else?
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bigtruckguy3500
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In reply to aggiebrad94 • 1:20p, 9/15/20
Europe also had their high density death centers, like some cities and towns in Italy/Spain. Maybe they were outliers, or maybe they were the effect of a bigger policy/response that was magnified due to density/population.
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WildcatAg
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In reply to ttuhscaggie • 3:23p, 9/15/20
AG
ttuhscaggie said:
Let's not kid ourselves. Go spend a couple weeks anywhere in Western Europe. Try on some clothes, eat the food, ride a bicycle to work everyday... The fact that we're only +88,000 deaths higher is damn near miraculous. I saw a 650lb patient in my clinic the other day. That doesn't happen in Europe, just sayin
This is true but the Euros, even the Western ones, love them some cigarettes.
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amercer
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In reply to WildcatAg • 4:38p, 9/15/20
AG
Truth. (And the Chinese times 10 for that)

Crazy thing about Covid though is that lung problems don't seem to be nearly as bad as cardiovascular ones.
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Smokedraw01
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6:14p, 9/15/20
Americans don't like being told what to do. That was great during COVID. It presents challenges at other times.
"If you run into an ******* in the morning, you ran into an *******. If you run into *******s all day, you're the *******." – Raylan Givens, "Justified."
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to DTP02 • 6:59p, 9/15/20
AG
DTP02 said:
Set aside that it's very difficult to get an apples to apples comparison between entities which track and count using different methodologies for this discussion, although that is a big disclaimer.

I think you have to separate out the NY deaths, and maybe those seeded by NY like NJ, to truly compare the US response to European response.

You can argue about the federal and different state responses here and there, but what NY did was gross negligence.


Yes, I want to see the Italian, French, UK versions of Cuomo.
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rojo_ag
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In reply to fightingfarmer09 • 9:27p, 9/15/20
AG
fightingfarmer09 said:
We have also been very liberal when declaring a Covid death. Whereas countries like Germany (go look at the early threads of this board) were extremely limiting in declaring a death. So those numbers are meaningless really.

Europeans are very willing to follow government edicts without question, but I don't see how one would look at that as a positive and not a sad state of their government dependence.

Also, Europeans are actually VERY hostile to many scientific developments. Strong anti vaccine movements, the most restrictive agricultural regulations on the planet, and stringent consumer product regulations.


I am confused by your post. You dismiss the statistics used in the OPs analysis as meaningless. IMO, once you cross that line the argument is DOA.

But instead of saying "good day sir," you continue to argue by suggesting that (even if those numbers are true: They aren't though) 88,000 extra deaths in the the US should not be an indictment of our response but instead this reveals how "sheeplike" (not your word: mine) Europeans are.

Did catch your drift?
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rojo_ag
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In reply to ORAggieFan • 10:31p, 9/15/20
AG
ORAggieFan said:
Really need to look at deaths above average for the year or even better months of life lost. This measures overall response, which will account for more than just Covid deaths. This should be a two year review to see how depression and addiction along with delaying medical procedures affect the numbers. The US policies will kill more than Covid.


Based on what I have read, there have been 200,000 excess deaths since March in the US. In 2018, there were 48,000 suicides and 67,000 drug overdoses.

https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/suicide.shtml

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db356.htm

In every area in the country and around the world that experienced a spike in COVID causes they also had an additional spike in excess deaths. Are these excess deaths related to more suicides and drug overdoses? Related to the those who were too afraid to go the ER?

Okay. So, 100,000 excess deaths because of suicides, drug overdoses, and fear. There's still an almost sold out Kyle Field of people that most likely would not have died if it were't for this disease. We will find out soon enough the havoc this virus and our mitigation measures have had on our country.

IMO, I don't agree with the last sentence of your post because I do not believe our mitigation measures will kill more than they save. Were those freezer trucks in NYC and Hidalgo County for the dead by or with COVID or more for suicide and overdose victims?

If your last statement is true, what would you have done differently?
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ORAggieFan
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In reply to rojo_ag • 9:32a, 9/16/20
We haven't seen measurable excess deaths beyond just covid. Covid will without question cause excess deaths, but it is mostly temporary. Currently our "natural cause deaths" have been below average for 10 weeks now. Go read the Ethical Skeptic and his tweets about the "pulldown effect".

Sweden is currently below excess death averages for many weeks now. You can find the charts in the Sweden thread.

Personally, I think remaining mostly open would have been the way to go. What Florida is doing now. We had very different policies from CA to TX to FL. if you look at only Southern California (latitude similarities) we have nearly the same deaths per capita. There is nothing to show that the CA policies saved lives yet were much more restrictive. Focusing on nursing homes and most at risk while letting others live seems the best approach. Once we accomplished the goals of "flatten the curve" we should have immediately began to open.

Now, the US has a problem that Sweden and other countries don't. We are fat. Our death rate will be higher due to us being an unhealthy country.
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rojo_ag
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In reply to ORAggieFan • 2:58p, 9/16/20
AG
ORAggieFan said:
We haven't seen measurable excess deaths beyond just covid. Covid will without question cause excess deaths, but it is mostly temporary. Currently our "natural cause deaths" have been below average for 10 weeks now. Go read the Ethical Skeptic and his tweets about the "pulldown effect".

Sweden is currently below excess death averages for many weeks now. You can find the charts in the Sweden thread.

Personally, I think remaining mostly open would have been the way to go. What Florida is doing now. We had very different policies from CA to TX to FL. if you look at only Southern California (latitude similarities) we have nearly the same deaths per capita. There is nothing to show that the CA policies saved lives yet were much more restrictive. Focusing on nursing homes and most at risk while letting others live seems the best approach. Once we accomplished the goals of "flatten the curve" we should have immediately began to open.

Now, the US has a problem that Sweden and other countries don't. We are fat. Our death rate will be higher due to us being an unhealthy country.
Thank you for a thoughtful response!
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to AgE Doc • 10:15a, 9/17/20
The final story is still incomplete. With spikes occurring in countries previously thought to have covid well contained, it seems that widespread infections are inevitable. Lockdowns and mask are not preventing the spread of the virus, at best they are delaying It. When the final counts are in I'd expect death per capita numbers to be similar across the globe with differences mostly coming from the differences in the health of the populations and the quality of healthcare.

The notable exceptions will be isolated countries like New Zealand that are better able to restrict and screen incoming travelers.
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KlinkerAg11
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In reply to SirLurksALot • 10:18a, 9/17/20
AG
I wonder how bad New Zealand's economy is/will be.

A large part of it's economy is based off tourism.
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to KlinkerAg11 • 10:27a, 9/17/20
KlinkerAg11 said:
I wonder how bad New Zealand's economy is/will be.

A large part of it's economy is based off tourism.


I saw this story yesterday. They are suffering from the worst recession in over 30 years and have experienced a larger percentage shrinkage of GDP than the US. Yet they only have 25 deaths.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-54186359

If they had the same deaths per capita as the US they'd have 3041 deaths. Personally, I don't believe that 3016 lives saved is worth the damage done to the economy, especially considering the people most likely to die from covid are already in the waning years of life.
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to AgE Doc • 1:03a, 9/20/20
AG
AgE Doc said:
EUROPE'S COVID RESPONSE EFFORTS COMPARED TO COVID RESPONSE IN THE UNITED STATES

EUROPE (Excluding Russia)
598,500,000 Population of Europe
193,937 Deaths from COVID in Europe
3,086 Population per COVID Death in Europe
324 Deaths per 1 Million population in Europe

UNITED STATES
331,400,000 Population of the United States
198,179 Death from COVID in the USA
1,672 Population per COVID Death in the USA
598 Deaths per 1 million population in the USA


COMPARISON
598 324 = 267 more deaths per million of population in the USA compared to Europe.

Multiply that times the 331.4 million population of the United States and you get more than 88,000 more deaths with the United States response compared to Europe's response efforts.


The estimated breakdown of those ADDITIONAL 88,000+ American lives lost
1% are in their 20s or younger 880
2% in their 30s 1,760
5% in their 40s 4,400
12% in their 50s 10,560
20% in their 60s 17,600
25% in their 70s 22,000
35% in their 80s or older 30,800


One thing I havent been able to figure out is how Spain ended up with more deaths per capita than us despite a draconian lockdown that makes house arrest look appealing. The UK is pretty much on par with us as well.

I have friends in Madrid and London and they were essentially imprisoned in their apartments for months. My friend in Madrid was only allowed to leave her apartment for 1 hour each week to get food and medicine. Her kids could not go outside for any reason whatsoever. As soon as she had the opportunity she moved to France to escape the restrictions much like the people who fled NYC.

So my question is if a country that locked people in their homes for all but 1 hour each week did worse than us, what more could we have done? Should we have permanently locked everyone in their homes 24/7 and had everything delivered by certified government agents? Should we have welded everyone into their homes lile they did in Wuhan.

There is no vaccine so the only viable actions are prolonged social distancing. Testing and tracing hasnt worked anywhere outside of a few small countries who were hit by SARS and had the infrastructure in place. I dont think its reasonable to think we could have put it in place for one of the largest countries in the world in a few weeks.

Someday I would like someone to lay out exactly what they would have done and exactly how much it would have cost along with the corresponding economic, societal and mental health consequences.
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amercer
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In reply to SirLurksALot • 8:09a, 9/20/20
AG
SirLurksALot said:
KlinkerAg11 said:
I wonder how bad New Zealand's economy is/will be.

A large part of it's economy is based off tourism.


I saw this story yesterday. They are suffering from the worst recession in over 30 years and have experienced a larger percentage shrinkage of GDP than the US. Yet they only have 25 deaths.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-54186359

If they had the same deaths per capita as the US they'd have 3041 deaths. Personally, I don't believe that 3016 lives saved is worth the damage done to the economy, especially considering the people most likely to die from covid are already in the waning years of life.


Yeah for death panels!

Don't worry, we'll just let you know when it's your time

?resize=520%2C347
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Aust Ag
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8:30a, 9/20/20
AG
So what's the deal with Canada? I heard "no deaths" for a day recently, and like just a few for the week. What are they doing that is so great? Or is it a latitude thing?
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The_Fox
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In reply to amercer • 9:00a, 9/20/20
amercer said:
SirLurksALot said:
KlinkerAg11 said:
I wonder how bad New Zealand's economy is/will be.

A large part of it's economy is based off tourism.


I saw this story yesterday. They are suffering from the worst recession in over 30 years and have experienced a larger percentage shrinkage of GDP than the US. Yet they only have 25 deaths.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-54186359

If they had the same deaths per capita as the US they'd have 3041 deaths. Personally, I don't believe that 3016 lives saved is worth the damage done to the economy, especially considering the people most likely to die from covid are already in the waning years of life.


Yeah for death panels!

Don't worry, we'll just let you know when it's your time

?resize=520%2C347


This is idiotic. Covid (nature) thinning out the weak is not government death panels.

Btw, I love Logan's Run. It fascinated me as a kid.
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amercer
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In reply to The_Fox • 9:14a, 9/20/20
AG
There have been rumors of a remake for a while. I'm sure the effects could use updating, but I'm not sure a new version could capture the spirit of the original.
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to amercer • 10:15a, 9/20/20
amercer said:
SirLurksALot said:
KlinkerAg11 said:
I wonder how bad New Zealand's economy is/will be.

A large part of it's economy is based off tourism.


I saw this story yesterday. They are suffering from the worst recession in over 30 years and have experienced a larger percentage shrinkage of GDP than the US. Yet they only have 25 deaths.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-54186359

If they had the same deaths per capita as the US they'd have 3041 deaths. Personally, I don't believe that 3016 lives saved is worth the damage done to the economy, especially considering the people most likely to die from covid are already in the waning years of life.


Yeah for death panels!

Don't worry, we'll just let you know when it's your time

?resize=520%2C347


Fine by me. If we started euthanizing everyone once they turned 75 then we'd have way less Covid deaths right now.
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CompEvoBio94
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In reply to ORAggieFan • 7:19p, 9/20/20
ORAggieFan said:
We haven't seen measurable excess deaths beyond just covid. Covid will without question cause excess deaths, but it is mostly temporary. Currently our "natural cause deaths" have been below average for 10 weeks now. Go read the Ethical Skeptic and his tweets about the "pulldown effect".
Instead of anonymous misinformation on twitter, I'd recommend that you look at data sources that are clearly described and have named people who try to correct errors as they arise.
https://episphere.github.io/mortalitytracker/#cause=allcause&state=All%20States as nice plots of CDC data. Click on " Calculate additional mortality**;" if you want to see the excess mortality figure on the top plot.

It lags, because it takes a while for the data to come in. But as of Aug 18, we are at around 267K excess deaths for the year. And the "natural causes" death rate (on the second plot from the top) mirrors the shape of the excess death plot. So, no clear sign of anything happening other than lots of excess natural cause deaths this year.
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CompEvoBio94
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7:33p, 9/20/20
I hope that doesn't come across as rude to ORAggieFan. That was not my intent. That site/twitter account just drives me up the wall.

For me, the epitome of that site is redefining the Law of Large Numbers (a well defined theorem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers ) for the purposes of the Ethical Skeptic site as " a fallacy wherein an arguer does not perceive that a perceptibly large effect on a small population might serve to produce rather small numbers of outcomes, while a very small or subtle effect on a very large population, may well serve to produce surprisingly large numbers in outcome."
It's just gibberish and mis-direction meant to sound impressive.
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