How does 200,000 deaths break down

6,130 Views | 37 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by PJYoung
Big Al 1992
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This will be the headline for the next couple weeks. But how does that break down by age? Died of Covid or with Covid? Comorbidities - and what specifically - how many obese?
And how does typical flu season compare - with a lot more younger deaths?
ORAggieFan
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Last I saw, the average age of Covid deaths was nearly 2.5 years higher than the average age of US deaths. That's pretty telling. 2.5 comorbidities on average. We will never really know the died because or died with.
garyt73
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I would also like to know breakdowns.
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CapCityAg89
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CDC has tracked this throughout ...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

CapCityAg89
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Note - that site also includes "causes" in the dashboard options.
Keegan99
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CapCityAg89
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The overall weekly deaths with the excess curve is even more telling for this last period ...



Those last two lines: 8/29 is about even and 9/5 is 5K under average (7500 under the upper bound). The next couple months will be interesting to see what happens with overall "excess" death. That 5K under average is easily the lowest number of the last three years.
texan12
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AggieBiker
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CastleRock said:

Not sure it really matters. You can't just say COVID is a non issue because people with obesity and diabetes are dying of it at a higher rate than healthier people.

If obese people were getting run over by busses, you wouldn't say "tell those fat people to get in shape and they can jump out of the way."

Obesity didn't kill them, busses did.

(COVID is the bus here)
Terrible analogy and everyone who starred this took no time to think it through.

In the case of the bus, being obese or thin doesn't matter if it runs over you. In the case of COVID, whether you have obesity and diabetes has a great impact on whether it will kill you. All the medical authorities will tell you that. Come up with better analogies if you want to scare intelligent, thinking people.
AgE Doc
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CapCityAg89 said:

The overall weekly deaths with the excess curve is even more telling for this last period ...



Those last two lines: 8/29 is about even and 9/5 is 5K under average (7500 under the upper bound). The next couple months will be interesting to see what happens with overall "excess" death. That 5K under average is easily the lowest number of the last three years.
The last 3 or 4 lines are incomplete data as it takes 6+ weeks to get a more complete total.

Check back to this graph in 2 or 3 weeks and you will see that the 8/29 line and the 9/5 line will also be above excess and will earn their RED "+" sign.

Below are similar graphs based on CDC data from two dates (August 24th and two weeks later September 7th). You can compare and see what happens to these over time as the data becomes more complete.

August 24th:

September 7th:
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CapCityAg89
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Apologies but the two graphs you pose don't bear out your suggestion but maybe I misread you. The final lines are all estimates; not strictly speaking "incomplete" (they guess at the full level on the glass, they don't show how full the glass is to date). The CDC is estimating the week of 9/4 as very low. In your graphs they showed dots/circles where they expected the numbers to fall and from graph 1 to 2, they were pretty close. I'd expect the more complete data to be pretty close to that point.
AgE Doc
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CapCityAg89 said:

The final lines are all estimates; not strictly speaking "incomplete" (they guess at the full level on the glass, they don't show how full the glass is to date). The CDC is estimating the week of 9/4 as very low.
That's not how I understand the CDC data when I read the Figure Notes that accompany the graph.

CapCityAg89
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Well see in a couple weeks I guess.
AgE Doc
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If you look at the Mortality Tracker graphs of the CDC data more closely you will see for example the Empty Circle above the "S" in September goes from about 36,000 in the August 24th Graph, but by the time you get to the September 7th Graph you see that that empty circle above the "S" in September is now at about 51,000. That's what will happen with the lines on the CDC graph as well with time.

Also you will notice on the mortality tracker graph that even the circles that are filled in change with additional time. What I've seen from experts who follow this data routinely is that they estimate that about 90% of the deaths are accounted for by about 6 weeks but the remaining 10% can come in over an additional 4 weeks (up to 10 weeks after the death).
coolerguy12
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CastleRock said:

Not sure it really matters. You can't just say COVID is a non issue because people with obesity and diabetes are dying of it at a higher rate than healthier people.

If obese people were getting run over by busses, you wouldn't say "tell those fat people to get in shape and they can jump out of the way."

Obesity didn't kill them, busses did.

(COVID is the bus here)


But if they happen to have covid at the time they got hit by the bus then they died of covid...
texan12
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SirLurksALot
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CastleRock said:

AggieBiker said:

CastleRock said:

Not sure it really matters. You can't just say COVID is a non issue because people with obesity and diabetes are dying of it at a higher rate than healthier people.

If obese people were getting run over by busses, you wouldn't say "tell those fat people to get in shape and they can jump out of the way."

Obesity didn't kill them, busses did.

(COVID is the bus here)
Terrible analogy and everyone who starred this took no time to think it through.

In the case of the bus, being obese or thin doesn't matter if it runs over you. In the case of COVID, whether you have obesity and diabetes has a great impact on whether it will kill you. All the medical authorities will tell you that. Come up with better analogies if you want to scare intelligent, thinking people.


Reread my post

I'm saying that we can't dismiss COVID deaths just because they're obese or have co-morbidities, which is what people want to do with the breakdown.



Sure we can. They'd be alive if they weren't fat, sick, or old. Covid infection is inevitable, in many cases being unhealthy isn't.
Premium
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So it looks like more young people have died due to other things besides COVID because of the ridiculous lockdowns. Oh, it mostly kills old and people with multiple comorbidities? Oh, if we would have isolated these people and left everyone to live normal lives, the younger people would have gotten a natural immunity that would protect the high risk category?

All of this is such a surprise!
Keegan99
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Yup. I've said it plenty. The marginal increase in suicides for Americans under age 30 - and possibly as high as age 45 - will exceed COVID fatalities in those same age cohorts.
GE
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Specifically within the obesity one I'd like to see a breakdown because that is something actually within the control of people. That is, if BMI of 30 is obese but the risk at BMI of 31 is only 15% increased risk of serious illness but BMI over 40 is 400% increase risk of serious illness, that is highly relevant information.

Kind of like when they were talking about over 60 and 20-40 as age groups at the beginning of this thing.
AggieBiker
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CastleRock said:

AggieBiker said:

CastleRock said:

Not sure it really matters. You can't just say COVID is a non issue because people with obesity and diabetes are dying of it at a higher rate than healthier people.

If obese people were getting run over by busses, you wouldn't say "tell those fat people to get in shape and they can jump out of the way."

Obesity didn't kill them, busses did.

(COVID is the bus here)
Terrible analogy and everyone who starred this took no time to think it through.

In the case of the bus, being obese or thin doesn't matter if it runs over you. In the case of COVID, whether you have obesity and diabetes has a great impact on whether it will kill you. All the medical authorities will tell you that. Come up with better analogies if you want to scare intelligent, thinking people.


Reread my post

I'm saying that we can't dismiss COVID deaths just because they're obese or have co-morbidities, which is what people want to do with the breakdown.

I understood your point the first time I read your post. I also recognized your analogy is an inappropriate characterization of the issue as I pointed out. And as many others have pointed out, you can't attribute every death of a COVID infected person to COVID alone which may not be what you intended to imply either. After all you did say, "we can't dismiss COVID deaths just because..." so you don't seem to be implying we can't dismiss some of these for other reasons. But it also seems you are saying we can't dismiss a COVID death if the only other factor is comorbidities. I disagree with that if it is an accurate reflection of what you meant.

My 84 year old mother who is in a nursing home and has renal failure, diabetes, dementia and is unable to do most anything physically including walking without support just "recovered" from COVID. She never had any symptoms or effects but tested positive 3 times over two weeks before twice testing negative last week. So we know that all people with severe comorbidities that get COVID will not die from it while some will.

I believe it is fair to also consider that we should dismiss some level of the deaths attributed to COVID when someone like my mother dies while infected with COVID. She didn't die with all of her other issues and COVID, so if she had of died with her other issues, which will happen soon enough, while infected with COVID I would not say it was due to COVID but more because of the other factors which keep her life at the edge of death constantly. That line of logic leads me to believe we have had many deaths attributed to COVID that could have just as easily occurred at the same time without COVID and therefore some of the comorbidity plus COVID deaths should not be attributed to COVID. And I believe that is probably a substantial portion of the deaths.
P.U.T.U
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[Wrong forum. Keep the political comments over on the Politics forum. - Staff]
Ragoo
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CastleRock said:

Not sure it really matters. You can't just say COVID is a non issue because people with obesity and diabetes are dying of it at a higher rate than healthier people.

If obese people were getting run over by busses, you wouldn't say "tell those fat people to get in shape and they can jump out of the way."

Obesity didn't kill them, busses did.

(COVID is the bus here)
unless you walk in front of the same bus every morning for 40 years and one day are just a few seconds late. Just because you narrowly missed death for 40 years doesn't mean death wasn't there watching and waiting.
ORAggieFan
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Here is a graph attempting to answer some of the questions here:
rojo_ag
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Who is this PLC dude, and why is he so intent on using the word "fear" when interpreting the statistics?

I just looked him up. IMO, he's a hack. He has no credibility, and he is not objective at all.

If it smells like agenda, it's probably agenda.

And. . .here you go again with dropping charts without analysis.

Why is it so important for several posters on this thread to suggest that the excess deaths are nothing to be concerned about? Acknowledge that people died from or with Covid who would have otherwise lived. They may have had an underlying condition, but Covid with a comorbidity or several comorbidities took them out.

What's your endgame? Are you suggesting that the number of excess deaths were elevated by suicides, drug overdoses, and sick people who need medical care? I'm sure there has been an increase of all of the above, but what were those refrigerator trucks in several cities used for: suicides, ODs, fake Covid deaths, and people riddled with fear?

Is the media conspiring with left to be silent on the huge uptick in deaths unrelated to Covid? I'm certain that if this were the case, Fox News would be running with it daily. Truth is the uptick in deaths for other causes has happened, but the number of excess deaths has for the most part been Covid related.

You know the five stages of grief: Please circle what stage you are in.

  • denial
  • anger
  • bargaining
  • depression
  • acceptance

What's the harm in accepting this and then moving on?

ORAggieFan
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rojo_ag said:

Who is this PLC dude, and why is he so intent on using the word "fear" when interpreting the statistics?

I just looked him up. IMO, he's a hack. He has no credibility, and he is not objective at all.

If it smells like agenda, it's probably agenda.

And. . .here you go again with dropping charts without analysis.

Why is it so important for several posters on this thread to suggest that the excess deaths are nothing to be concerned about? Acknowledge that people died from or with Covid who would have otherwise lived. They may have had an underlying condition, but Covid with a comorbidity or several comorbidities took them out.

What's your endgame? Are you suggesting that the number of excess deaths were elevated by suicides, drug overdoses, and sick people who need medical care? I'm sure there has been an increase of all of the above, but what were those refrigerator trucks in several cities used for: suicides, ODs, fake Covid deaths, and people riddled with fear?

Is the media conspiring with left to be silent on the huge uptick in deaths unrelated to Covid? I'm certain that if this were the case, Fox News would be running with it daily. Truth is the uptick in deaths for other causes has happened, but the number of excess deaths has for the most part been Covid related.

You know the five stages of grief: Please circle what stage you are in.

  • denial
  • anger
  • bargaining
  • depression
  • acceptance

What's the harm in accepting this and then moving on?


The only one denying anything is you. Many of us are outraged because the public policies will lead to more deaths than covid and especially when you measure months of life lost. If you can't understand a chart that is pretty clear, that's on you. All the charts are pretty easy to read and contain proper sources (mostly the CDC).

Do you not think it's important to realize the average age of death of those with Covid is 2.5 years above the average age of death in America? Would it then be pertinent to look at excess deaths beyond Covid and figure out those ages? Things such as suicide and addiction, delayed medical treatments, starvation and many more that continue to happen. Would it not be worth comparing all of this? Is it not prudent to look at the data we have now and realize policy that may have made sense in March no longer makes sense? If we can identify one portion of the population that is really the ones at risk, should we not change policy to keep them safe while allowing those not affected to return more to normal?
Keegan99
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Why should it be incumbent on me to analyze the charts for you? The relevant commentary, sources, and explanations are provided for you to review.
rojo_ag
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Keegan99 said:

Why should it be incumbent on me to analyze the charts for you? The relevant commentary, sources, and explanations are provided for you to review.
It's just this simple: If my student is constructing a sound argument, and she uses statistics without commentary, I would make her revise her text. Why the data matters is as important as choosing data that supports your thinking.

In addition, the commentary you use are the thoughts and opinions of an obviously biased source. He hammers the point that "fear" and "panic" are the main reasons more people died. Perhaps on a different forum, his opinions would resonant, but here his agenda ruins his credibility. IMO, you contribute nothing with these statistics.

ORAggieFan
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rojo_ag said:

Keegan99 said:

Why should it be incumbent on me to analyze the charts for you? The relevant commentary, sources, and explanations are provided for you to review.
It's just this simple: If my student is constructing a sound argument, and she uses statistics without commentary, I would make her revise her text. Why the data matters is as important as choosing data that supports your thinking.

In addition, the commentary you use are the thoughts and opinions of an obviously biased source. He hammers the point that "fear" and "panic" are the main reasons more people died. Perhaps on a different forum, his opinions would resonant, but here his agenda ruins his credibility. IMO, you contribute nothing with these statistics.



Commentary was provided. Because there may be opinion in the commentary doesn't render what is shown inaccurate. It's your job to show why the reasoning or conclusions are wrong if you disagree.
rojo_ag
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I'm afraid it doesn't work that way. And policy is not going to change in the near future. Attempting to attribute the excess deaths as products of the mitigation measures and not on the disease is disingenuous and IMO dangerous.

I'm certainly not denying the data. It's interesting how data is interpreted from one's political lens, though. I see what was posted, and I contend using a source that has an obvious political stance, weakens the argument. If we have learned anything during this, we all know Truth is not Truth. . .each side wants us to believe 2 + 2 = 5.

"In the end the Party would announce that two and two made five, and you would have to believe it."

If we are to have a healthy and meaningful debate it is essential to voice our analysis to support the meaningfulness of the data, yet some choose to hide behind the words of others.
Keegan99
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There's nothing left to explain, and no need to restate what has been stated.

If you have questions about something you do not understand, feel free to ask.
AgE Doc
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CapCityAg89 said:

Well see in a couple weeks I guess.
This week's... (Last 3 bars are August 29th, September 5th, & September 12th) --


Previous week's... (Last 3 bars are August 22nd, August 29th, & September 5th) --


It is estimated that about 90% of the deaths are accounted for by about 6 weeks but the remaining 10% will typically come in over an additional 4 weeks (6 to 10 weeks after the death).

Red Rover
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Keegan99 said:










This is fascinating!
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