Red Rover said:

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Keegan99 said:

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This is fascinating!

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Agreed very fascinating.

I'm concerned data lags are overstating the reduction, but I do not know if that was accounted for and what impact it would have, materially.

Makes sense to review excess deaths to assess impact of the pandemic. Would be interesting, once all is said and done, to review the analysis with fully complete data.

NM

Economic shut down has doubled global poverty. Not quite as much in the US of course but that's the primary death driver for all but the elderly here too.

CapCityAg89 said:

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The overall weekly deaths with the excess curve is even more telling for this last period ...



Those last two lines: 8/29 is about even and 9/5 is 5K under average (7500 under the upper bound). The next couple months will be interesting to see what happens with overall "excess" death. That 5K under average is easily the lowest number of the last three years.

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Updated chart shows there is no longer a 5k under average for those dates.



And I think we *might* go under excess deaths at some point this winter as a lot of our oldest citizens have already died earlier in the year due to Covid-19. But that's to be seen still as hospitalizations are going up again in several states now.