Why the projected spike in deaths

3,883 Views | 21 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by murphyag
jamey
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10:52p, 9/22/20
AG
Pretty significant spike in deaths in this model. Is this the modeled impact of seasonality as the US enters fall/winter?

The total current projected by Jan 1 is 378k and we just pushed past 200K. Thats a lot of death in a little more than 3 months

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
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beerad12man
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5:31a, 9/23/20
AG
That model has always sucked. It will no doubt end up way off. Zero basis for that kind of death rate over the next 3 months. They also put way too much emphasis on masks when plenty of other areas have shown masks ave minimal impact on community spread according to many states and countries graphs

No spike here:


https://covid19-projections.com/us
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jamey
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In reply to beerad12man • 7:19a, 9/23/20
AG
beerad12man said:
That model has always sucked. It will no doubt end up way off. Zero basis for that kind of death rate over the next 3 months. They also put way too much emphasis on masks when plenty of other areas have shown masks ave minimal impact on community spread according to many states and countries graphs

No spike here:


https://covid19-projections.com/us


Cool...I'll see how that model looks.


Between the two snap shots we should see if it continues down or starts to trend back up in relatively short order since the two models differ in that way. Perhaps by mid October we'll know which way its going based on these 2 models


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P.U.T.U
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7:44a, 9/23/20
AG
The model the OP posted was evaluated by Dr. Peter Attia and his group, once they dug into the formula they stopped, if the R0 was off by 0.1 than it would change the number of deaths by one million. It has been a faulty model from the beginning
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Keegan99
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7:50a, 9/23/20
AG
IHME is trash.

http://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3137347/1

They will release a "model" that projects months in advance and only to promptly fall outside of its 95% confidence interval in two weeks.
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texan12
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8:05a, 9/23/20
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P.U.T.U
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8:08a, 9/23/20
AG
There are threads on here that discuss models that have been accurate throughout time. It was a good question by the OP, not sure if the models are trying to be political or it is just bad math
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DadHammer
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8:12a, 9/23/20
AG
What really bothers me is the number of people that just don't understand that once you get covid and get over it you will have some immunity. The most vulnerable and weak are the ones hit the hardest at first and there are only so many of those people. Many studies are showing a large portion of the population already has some immunity.

Every day there are less and less people in the world that can be negatively affected by covid. Again look at the graphs of the countries that are basically over it now. Why would anyone assume we wouldn't reach the same immunity levels? In my family alone, besides my wife and I, we have had many get covid and get over it in 3-10 days depending on age.

The daily deaths per day are dropping really fast. The local officials can only count them 2-5 times each so it will fall even faster in a month.

We cannot and will not have any outbreaks close to what we had in ny.


Testing positive for covid means less and less every week. Colleges have proven this already with high infection rates and hardly any hospitalizations.
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jamey
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 8:13a, 9/23/20
AG
P.U.T.U said:
There are threads on here that discuss models that have been accurate throughout time. It was a good question by the OP, not sure if the models are trying to be political or it is just bad math



The reason I ask is because i saw one of the modelers on TV, perhaps a month ago and they thought seasonality would have an impact.

Its been a while since ive considered seasonality but that season is quickly approaching
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Keegan99
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8:15a, 9/23/20
AG
This may be my favorite.

If Sweden keeps up their current policies? An unprecedented 200+ deaths per day! More than twice their spring peak!

But if everyone wears little pieces of porous cloth on their face? Not even a dozen or so deaths per day.

This "model" seems to be nothing more than "look at this parameter we added that says masks really work!"


Regardless, Sweden is not going to use masks, because they follow science, so we'll see if the "experts" at IHME are right.


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Central Committee
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8:16a, 9/23/20
AG
Tested positive for the antibodies yesterday to my surprise. Had a night time cough for about a week in mid February along with sinus issues. Had an upper respiratory infection in early December (which I have not had in 35 years). Figure it was one of those.

Regardless, I am free & clear. I suspect that many Americans are as well.
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DadHammer
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In reply to Central Committee • 8:22a, 9/23/20
AG
How did you find out? Did you give blood or get tested specifically?
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to beerad12man • 8:30a, 9/23/20
AG
beerad12man said:
That model has always sucked. It will no doubt end up way off. Zero basis for that kind of death rate over the next 3 months. They also put way too much emphasis on masks when plenty of other areas have shown masks ave minimal impact on community spread according to many states and countries graphs

No spike here:


https://covid19-projections.com/us

Interestingly enough this site back on 7/22 was projecting 13,641 dead in TX by Nov 1 so it under projected if anything.

Now we're at 15,229 and it's projecting 17,931 fo TX by Nov 1.

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P.U.T.U
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In reply to DadHammer • 8:31a, 9/23/20
AG
The only thing I wonder is those counties like Collin county that never had a spike, think less than 1% of the population has tested positive. More white collar jobs and single family housing than Dallas county which got hit a ton harder. I could see some small spikes going through counties like that but the places that have seen spikes are much more populated.
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Central Committee
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In reply to DadHammer • 8:37a, 9/23/20
AG
Blood test. Went to regular checkup, and my doctor was offering the blood tests. Insurance was paying, so I decided if they were taking blood anyway, why not get tested. I always wondered if I had it back in December.
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BCG Disciple
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8:52a, 9/23/20
AG
What do the epi curves look like?
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texan12
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 8:56a, 9/23/20
P.U.T.U said:
There are threads on here that discuss models that have been accurate throughout time. It was a good question by the OP, not sure if the models are trying to be political or it is just bad math

I tried to find a graph on the website that compared their previous projected models to reality and couldn't find one. How can this particular model be somewhat accurate if previous ones can't be validated?
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DadHammer
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In reply to Central Committee • 7:06a, 9/24/20
AG
Central Committee said:
Blood test. Went to regular checkup, and my doctor was offering the blood tests. Insurance was paying, so I decided if they were taking blood anyway, why not get tested. I always wondered if I had it back in December.

So basically your like Mr Burns form the Simpsons now. That's great news for you.
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goatchze
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In reply to AgsMyDude • 8:30a, 9/24/20
AG
AgsMyDude said:
beerad12man said:
That model has always sucked. It will no doubt end up way off. Zero basis for that kind of death rate over the next 3 months. They also put way too much emphasis on masks when plenty of other areas have shown masks ave minimal impact on community spread according to many states and countries graphs

No spike here:


https://covid19-projections.com/us

Interestingly enough this site back on 7/22 was projecting 13,641 dead in TX by Nov 1 so it under projected if anything.

Now we're at 15,229 and it's projecting 17,931 fo TX by Nov 1.

Which was a pretty dang good estimate.

July 22nd was just after the "peak" of our daily new cases. They had to model/estimate the total actual cases based on the trends of test results, then estimate deaths from those actual cases. (Death rates were still rising then)

That site/model has been pretty reliable throughout this thing.
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agforlife97
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8:29a, 9/25/20
AG
There are certain areas that have not really had a first wave yet, and so you'll see some death spikes in these areas as time goes on. You're starting to see that in Spain in right now. Most major metro areas in the western world are done with it though.
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jvanbeek
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In reply to Central Committee • 1:24a, 9/29/20
AG
Central Committee said:
Tested positive for the antibodies yesterday to my surprise. Had a night time cough for about a week in mid February along with sinus issues. Had an upper respiratory infection in early December (which I have not had in 35 years). Figure it was one of those.

Regardless, I am free & clear. I suspect that many Americans are as well.


I had my worst sickness in years and it developed into pneumonia in December. Cleared up quickly with antibiotics. Several others just as sick in my department. I had antibodies checked out of curiosity and was negative. Not sure what was going around since that was earlier than most admit COVID was here.
Jim VanBeek '85, '99
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Aust Ag
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In reply to agforlife97 • 8:23a, 9/29/20
AG
agforlife97 said:
There are certain areas that have not really had a first wave yet, and so you'll see some death spikes in these areas as time goes on. You're starting to see that in Spain in right now. Most major metro areas in the western world are done with it though.
Is this what we're seeing in the Midwest now?
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murphyag
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 12:05p, 9/29/20
AG
P.U.T.U said:
The only thing I wonder is those counties like Collin county that never had a spike, think less than 1% of the population has tested positive. More white collar jobs and single family housing than Dallas county which got hit a ton harder. I could see some small spikes going through counties like that but the places that have seen spikes are much more populated.


I think Collin County benefitted from having more white collar jobs, more single family homes, and less residents dependent on DART trains and busses. Another thing that I believe helped Collin County early on is that a huge chunk of workers at the large corporate headquarters in the county began working from home in mid-late March. As well as Collin County residents that work in downtown Dallas. I'm the only person in my neighborhood who isn't still working from home besides a couple of doctors. I went back to work in May. Everyone else in my neighborhood is still working from home. It's a little ridiculous at this point, in my opinion. Same goes for my friends at church. All still working from home and most say it will be sometime in 2021 before they are back in the office.
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