Cases, Positivity Rate, and Hospitalizations are all TRENDING UPWARDS in Texas.

14,108 Views | 121 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by RGV AG
nortex97
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We can go back to normal now. There's no science behind lockdowns and masks.



How many hospital systems have laid off how many thousands of nurses thanks to the lockdowns that already happened? What if the flattening of the curve, if you believe it did work to do that, actually increased the total deaths by spreading the disease to the most vulnerable (elderly) further?

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KlinkerAg11
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A big part of normal for me, although I'm young in healthy, is to see my grandparents.

My son was born in January and my granny and grandpa have seen him once and never have held him.

My other grandma died in a nursing home and never got to see him, and we had a half assed grave side funeral wearing masks.

Screw this virus.
americathegreat1492
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What is a state to do when its' hospital system is overwhelmed or such a situation is imminent?
KlinkerAg11
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And to add to what I said, my grandparents watch a lot of news and won't leave their house or hang out with us until public messaging says it's ok.

That's why I ask, if they get a vaccine will the public health officials tell him it's safe? I sure hope so.
nortex97
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americathegreat1492 said:

What is a state to do when its' hospital system is overwhelmed or such a situation is imminent?
Well that hasn't happened, so we could also debate what to do if there is a biological warfare attack I suppose, but this is not pertinent to today's covid discussion.

All hospitals try to adjust staffing/ICU capacity to maintain said ICU occupancy somewhere in the 90 percentile range, because those beds cost a fortune if empty.
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americathegreat1492
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Speak for your own state. MT is in a bad situation right now. The state as a whole is not overwhelmed but ICU's are well over capacity everywhere and staffing is increasingly a problem with staffing requests going unfilled in the smaller areas.
ShinerDunk93
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nortex97 said:

americathegreat1492 said:

What is a state to do when its' hospital system is overwhelmed or such a situation is imminent?
Well that hasn't happened, so we could also debate what to do if there is a biological warfare attack I suppose, but this is not pertinent to today's covid discussion.

All hospitals try to adjust staffing/ICU capacity to maintain said ICU occupancy somewhere in the 90 percentile range, because those beds cost a fortune if empty.
I wish I could star this more. Dallas moved back to RED caution levels because of "increasing hospitalizations" however the counties own surveillance documents that they produces and release to back this up actually show the opposite. Page 8. I guess it's based on how the experts feel today??


Dallas County Summary Doc for 10-13

Local TV news media?........no questions, no checking. Just report BACK to RED because of the hospitals and followed by a doctor doom telling us to cancel Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Also from their documents (page 4) of the positive test collections for Sept and Oct, only ~8.5% of the positive tests (not cases) are over the age of 65. Time to move on. Our society has lost the ability of critical thinking.
dermdoc
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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:

dermdoc said:

AgE Doc said:

Cases, Positivity Rate, and Hospitalizations are all TRENDING UPWARDS in Texas (increased deaths will follow 2 to 3 weeks later)...

Please DON'T WAIT for things to get worse before acting.

For MANY reasons we really need people to take this seriously, wear a mask properly and social distance to help save lives in our Texas communities.

Most importantly to...
Protect Your Families Neighbors And Community
Protect Our Economy By Mask And Distancing
Protect The Opportunity For Schools To Provide In Person Learning

Also important but admittedly to a lessor degree...
Protect Our High School Sports
Protect Our College Football Season
Protect The Opportunituy For Other Extracurricular Activities




As a physician, do you think it is a good thing or bad thing for there to be more cases and fewer deaths?

It seems that people are either willingly ignoring just 3 months ago or seem to not remember we went through this "but deaths are dropping" nonsense already while cases sharply rose, and then the deaths inevitably followed. Reports of death and the time it takes from diagnosis to death or ICU admission typically takes weeks.

I agree with Keegan, however, that there needs to be a better breakdown of the numbers, as Texas is so huge. Anecdotally, here in San Antonio I still haven't seen a significant increase in cases, Although I have had to admit two patients in the last week, which is the total number I've seen in the last month.
Fair enough. Do you think the virus is less virulent than it was in the spring?
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
KlinkerAg11
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I totally agree and respect that decision, I'm glad they made it and agree with it.

My point is will the public messaging allow them to get out and see their family once they get the vaccine, or will they keep telling them to stay home?

That's my big hang up, give them hope. I'm young I can hang on, older folks need some hope that they will be able to live again soon.
dermdoc
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nortex97 said:

We can go back to normal now. There's no science behind lockdowns and masks.



How many hospital systems have laid off how many thousands of nurses thanks to the lockdowns that already happened? What if the flattening of the curve, if you believe it did work to do that, actually increased the total deaths by spreading the disease to the most vulnerable (elderly) further?


That is what I was always taught.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Bluecat_Aggie94
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Average age of infected is also going down. So raw numbers of deaths will go up, but the total mortality rate will probably continue to decline.
ORAggieFan
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americathegreat1492 said:

What is a state to do when its' hospital system is overwhelmed or such a situation is imminent?
No state wide hospital system has been overwhelmed. In the entire country only a few hospitals have been at capacity. What the state should do is work to "flatten the curve".....
HowdyTexasAggies
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"How much this needs to be repeated?

"For pathogens that inflict greater morbidity at older ages, interventions that reduce but do not eliminate exposure can paradoxically increase the number of cases of severe disease by shifting the burden of infection toward older individuals."

This is what frustrates me, we are increasing the risk to the high risk by the current approach.....dragging this out over a year vs. letting it burn out.
Poke_the_Bear
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looking at the dashboard it appears the increase is limited to a few areas. Dallas and Ft worth with slight increases, Lubbock and especially El Paso with more. El Paso is at its peak for the virus.

Click on additional data then trend by county.

Bexar, Harris and Travis are flat to downward.
ORAggieFan
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And New Mexico is spiking, so makes sense El Paso would be as well.
Keegan99
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Poke_the_Bear said:

looking at the dashboard it appears the increase is limited to a few areas. Dallas and Ft worth with slight increases, Lubbock and especially El Paso with more. El Paso is at its peak for the virus.

Click on additional data then trend by county.

Bexar, Harris and Travis are flat to downward.


Oh... So the areas that did NOT see a big swell in July are primarily responsible for the current increase?

Interesting.
coolerguy12
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Keegan99 said:

Poke_the_Bear said:

looking at the dashboard it appears the increase is limited to a few areas. Dallas and Ft worth with slight increases, Lubbock and especially El Paso with more. El Paso is at its peak for the virus.

Click on additional data then trend by county.

Bexar, Harris and Travis are flat to downward.


Oh... So the areas that did NOT see a big swell in July are primarily responsible for the current increase?

Interesting.


This comes a huge shock to me
nortex97
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americathegreat1492 said:

Speak for your own state. MT is in a bad situation right now. The state as a whole is not overwhelmed but ICU's are well over capacity everywhere and staffing is increasingly a problem with staffing requests going unfilled in the smaller areas.
Well ok, I admit I don't follow MT figures, well, at all. Y'all had a chance to elect Gianforte and chose Bullock in '16, so I am not surprised the state isn't handling this well.

It's also the case that critical access hospitals (meaning areas serviced by them, which are by definition 25 bed hospitals), often don't have ICU access/flexibility as found in major hospitals/medical centers.

As to MT figures I did see that this, while alarming for a rural state, doesn't quite sound like "bring out your dead."

Quote:

The state now has 20,210 confirmed cases of the coronavirus. There are 225 deaths, which is eight more than reported Tuesday.

Of the total cases, there are 12,068 that are recovered and 7,917 remain active. There are 292 people hospitalized out of 920 total hospitalizations, the state said at covid19.mt.gov.

Cascade County topped the list Wednesday for most cases. Flathead County was second with 76, Missoula had 74, Gallatin had 65, Hill had 36, Ravalli had 27, Big Horn and Lewis and Clark each had 22, Glacier had 19, Valley had 12, Lincoln had 11 and Blaine, Carbon and Roosevelt each had 10.
Keep in mind Obamacare really hurt critical access hospitals the most; it was almost designed to punish them first, and drive consolidation.
P.U.T.U
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I am waiting on Collin county to get some kind of surge, about 1% of the population has tested positive and hospitals are around 3-4% of their Covid capacity.
Capitol Ag
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Here is another issue that has been bouncing around my head this morning. Is it realistic to expect and put so much responsibility on the rest of society when dealing with these mitigations? I have no problem doing them myself, but it's not selfishness driving the people's desire to end restrictions and mandates. It's b/c, in my opinion, certain mandates and restrictions may not be reasonable and to expect people to take such efforts, many of which reach levels not seen since WWII in terms of affecting our everyday personal lives and lives of our families, will never be realistic. As some try to argue that we need to stay the course and stay restricted and reduced in our personal lives, those people need to remember that the statistics work against that theory. If 99.97% of all those who contract Covid will be fine and the overwhelming majority of those show no signs of aftereffects than its hard to expect a population as large and diverse as the United States to be this determined. We have a lot of more important things to consider in our lives, like caring for our children and our own family. My parents are elderly. And they are intelligent adults who can take care of themselves. I know not to risk their situation. But they also know that staying out of harms way is their responsibility and no one else's. Outside of them and other loved ones, is it not slightly unreasonable to expect much more from each person? Maybe. But I think it's a losing battle in the end. I honestly think that even if the hospitals were to be overrun in a spike, the vast majority would still not be personally touched by this. And if they were like me and avoided the news and its ever present sensationalism of issues like Covid (yes its a real issue but we all know that the press makes money off of scary headlines-look no further than the famous "summer of the shark" in 2001 right before 911 where you'd have practically thought sharks had declared war on humans when it turned out to actually be a down year for shark attacks yet a couple of high profile attacks caught the media's attention, so now sharks were "stalking us' wherever we were.) they probably would never know unless some one actually told them. If you are a doctor, I get that you are on the front lines of this. But try not to forget that a lot of us aren't and never will be. This will never be like other greater pandemics of the past, where bodies lay in the streets and 20-40% died at times. So given that we are taking these measures to prevent the most comorbid from catching the virus and dying, it is a lot smaller portion of the population and even with those rare outliers in which younger, presumably healthy people also dies from Covid, that is the exception, not the rule. People start to recognize the use of anecdotal situations just to scare us into compliance and it pisses us off. It causes more to resist than to comply, and is thereby propagating that which you are trying to eliminate.
RandyAg98
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Quote:

Oh... So the areas that did NOT see a big swell in July are primarily responsible for the current increase?

Interesting.
It's baffling to me that people who scream about "new cases" either don't understand or don't want to understand this very simple and obvious pattern. It's why "lockdowns" do nothing but kick the can down the street.
rojo_ag
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nortex97 said:

We can go back to normal now. There's no science behind lockdowns and masks.



How many hospital systems have laid off how many thousands of nurses thanks to the lockdowns that already happened? What if the flattening of the curve, if you believe it did work to do that, actually increased the total deaths by spreading the disease to the most vulnerable (elderly) further?


I think all health officials and governmental agencies should follow the guidance in response to this virus based on the opinions of a diet doctor known as the Fat Emperor:

Eat Rich, Live Long

What's next Dr. Phil and Dr. Oz also get to chime in?
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Squadron7
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If we had been given 6 months advance warning that COVID was coming* but were also provided information as to precisely the breakdown of who it most affects the most and how.......would we have had total lockdowns anywhere at all?





*Assumes non-election year.
nortex97
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SoupNazi2001 said:

ORAggieFan said:

And New Mexico is spiking, so makes sense El Paso would be as well.


Interesting that NM is spiking and they have some of the toughest restrictions out there including mask wearing everywhere. It's almost like masks and the restrictions don't prevent the spread.
Yes, and it's also almost like lower humidity, cooler air leads to more ILI viruses/cases.
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AggieSarah01
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Yes, we are spiking, so our governor is criticizing us for not doing enough and how we are in really, really bad shape. Indoor dining has been threatened to be taken away, gatherings limited to 5 people once again, and we are supposed to stay within our "triangle" - basically going to no more than 3 places a day (work, one errand, and one "self-care").
Aggie95
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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:

dermdoc said:

AgE Doc said:

Cases, Positivity Rate, and Hospitalizations are all TRENDING UPWARDS in Texas (increased deaths will follow 2 to 3 weeks later)...

Please DON'T WAIT for things to get worse before acting.

For MANY reasons we really need people to take this seriously, wear a mask properly and social distance to help save lives in our Texas communities.

Most importantly to...
Protect Your Families Neighbors And Community
Protect Our Economy By Mask And Distancing
Protect The Opportunity For Schools To Provide In Person Learning

Also important but admittedly to a lessor degree...
Protect Our High School Sports
Protect Our College Football Season
Protect The Opportunituy For Other Extracurricular Activities




As a physician, do you think it is a good thing or bad thing for there to be more cases and fewer deaths?

It seems that people are either willingly ignoring just 3 months ago or seem to not remember we went through this "but deaths are dropping" nonsense already while cases sharply rose, and then the deaths inevitably followed. Reports of death and the time it takes from diagnosis to death or ICU admission typically takes weeks.

I agree with Keegan, however, that there needs to be a better breakdown of the numbers, as Texas is so huge. Anecdotally, here in San Antonio I still haven't seen a significant increase in cases, Although I have had to admit two patients in the last week, which is the total number I've seen in the last month.


Also, 3 months ago is a "lifetime" when discussing this virus. Deaths are dropping, and will continue to drop, because the medical community has a lot more answers now than they did in July...and a WHOLE lot more than in April.
Alta
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Whatever happened to flatten the curve? Seems that has been accomplished.
Capitol Ag
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AggieSarah01 said:

Yes, we are spiking, so our governor is criticizing us for not doing enough and how we are in really, really bad shape. Indoor dining has been threatened to be taken away, gatherings limited to 5 people once again, and we are supposed to stay within our "triangle" - basically going to no more than 3 places a day (work, one errand, and one "self-care").
Which is my point earlier. Why are we even being criticized in the first place? Or threatened. Makes a lot of us want to say "F--- Off!" Abbott, it's a virus. It might just spread b/c it spreads. Stop blaming people. Blame the freaking virus.
Geop84
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I just got my positive test for Covid back, guess it makes me a statistic. Remember there are actual people behind the numbers.
Ag for Life
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Geop84 said:

I just got my positive test for Covid back, guess it makes me a statistic. Remember there are actual people behind the numbers.
So do you have any symptoms or did you have to take a test to even know you had it?
Geop84
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I thought I had seasonal allergies starting last Tuesday. Stayed home from the Florida game out of what I thought was an excess of caution. Monday I started running fevers, got tested yesterday in College Station at Baylor Scott and White through my doctor. Test came back this morning.
 
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