Doctors? 200,000 more COVID deaths between now and 12/31

11,917 Views | 71 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by amercer
ORAggieFan
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In reply to FlyRod • 5:59p, 10/25/20
FlyRod said:
Utah is having a very bad time right now.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/25/with-coronavirus-cases/

A little premature to say that but signs point that way. But, lack of a first wave will do that. Every state that hasn't had a real wave one will eventually get one. So far Utah has peaked with 6 deaths per day on a 7 day rolling average.
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Aggie95
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In reply to FlyRod • 7:10p, 10/25/20
AG
FlyRod said:
Utah is having a very bad time right now.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/25/with-coronavirus-cases/
ICU's operating at 75% with 20% of those being COVID doesn't jive with the headline. I can understand the lack of staff being a concern, but this seems a bit much at the moment.
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
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Doug Ross
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In reply to Aggie95 • 1:41a, 10/26/20
AG
Aggie95 said:
Not making a political statement....but is there ANYWAY possible this would happen?
ER doctor in Dallas

No
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Iowaggie
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10:17p, 10/27/20
AG
Was the 200K supposed to be a worldwide number?
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FlyRod
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10:49p, 10/27/20
The current worldwide total of COVID deaths stands at 1.17million, so, no.
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ORAggieFan
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In reply to FlyRod • 12:01a, 10/28/20
FlyRod said:
The current worldwide total of COVID deaths stands at 1.17million, so, no.

You forgot the keyword, "with"
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Iowaggie
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In reply to FlyRod • 2:59p, 10/29/20
AG
FlyRod said:
The current worldwide total of COVID deaths stands at 1.17million, so, no.
The thread is about 200,000 more COVID deaths between now and 12/31.
It seems obvious that the number is way too big for the US. If the current total worldwide is 1.17 million for about a year of activity, isn't 200K a potential number for 2.5 months?
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jswags
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In reply to Iowaggie • 8:52p, 10/29/20
AG
Ask Biden
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AustinAg2K
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5:44p, 11/21/20
When this thread was made, I think we were at about 225k. We're at 260k now. Last week it seemed like we were at 2k a day, and I don't think that average is going down. If we average 2k per day for the rest of the year, that would put us at ~115k from when this thread was started. Still pretty far from the 200k estimated, but a lot more than I was expecting. Hopefully 2k per day is the high end of things, but I'm not super confident of that.
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jamey
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In reply to jamey • 6:14p, 11/21/20
AG
jamey said:
One month later and getting up to 2K a day





Almost 1 month later and we're at 2K a day
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cone
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7:10p, 11/21/20
AG
do we have any demographics on the latest peak? same IFR across age groups or is this one killing younger?
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jamey
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In reply to cone • 7:15p, 11/21/20
AG
cone said:
do we have any demographics on the latest peak? same IFR across age groups or is this one killing younger?


I have not looked but I would think more elderly are sheltering in place to the best of their ability now vs then


Most of these sorts of questions are going to be skewed by behavior of the groups of people.


We know the ratio of cases to death is much lower than before for all sorts of reasons from testing mostly just the very ill before, significant reduction in death upon hospitalization ..etc
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DukeMu
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In reply to jamey • 7:25p, 11/21/20
jamey said:
jamey said:
One month later and getting up to 2K a day





Almost 1 month later and we're at 2K a day

Humans assume viruses, infections, pandemics work linearly. They work on log and exponential scales. SARS-COV 2 is a replicating machine. Social distancing, masking is pretty heterogenous, especially in the Midwest, rural areas. Now that hospitals are filling up again deaths are increasing. Health care workers are stretched thin.

The vaccines can't come too soon.



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AgE Doc
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7:28p, 11/21/20
AG
The numbers in terms of 7 day average of daily deaths seems to be quickly escalating...

We've added about 32,000 more American deaths (about the average of an entire flu season in the US) since October 22nd (less than a month)...

But with only 41 days left in the year we would have to average about 4,000 deaths per day to get to another 200,000 deaths from the date of the OP's initial post on October 22nd. I can see us hitting 4,000 deaths per day but I don't think we will come close to averaging that many over the final 41 days of the year.
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jamey
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In reply to AgE Doc • 7:57p, 11/21/20
AG
Yeah, the projections at the time of the OP showed more like half that number, 100K give or take. Worldometer showed a little less than half



Agreed on the quick escalation

Look at the end of this 7 day average for the US. It recently spiked almost straight up
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cone
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In reply to jamey • 8:37p, 11/21/20
AG
so you think it's killing younger now
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jamey
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In reply to cone • 8:41p, 11/21/20
AG
cone said:
so you think it's killing younger now


Not really, just think the data is skewed towards younger people catching it at a higher rate because they aren't being as cautious
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cone
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In reply to jamey • 8:50p, 11/21/20
AG
but the deaths are piling up and like you said the olds have battened down the hatches
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jamey
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In reply to cone • 8:57p, 11/21/20
AG
cone said:
but the deaths are piling up and like you said the olds have battened down the hatches


Yeah, overall deaths are piling higher and higher. The news picks up on stories that this young person died but I doubt the percentages by age have changed. I dont think its because the virus has already blown thru an older age group or anything like that.
Its just the high risk groups are more careful imo. I believe the total population thats been exposed is pretty small


Which brings us to what we may see after Thanksgiving with a virus that's spread around the entire US population pretty well.


And we're days from much of the US gathering together inside for hours to eat. How many will cancel Thanksgiving i don't know but it doesn't seem like a lot

I wouldn't be surprised if we see more caution for Christmas as a result
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cone
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In reply to jamey • 9:04p, 11/21/20
AG
I'm not following the logic tbh with regard to why average age of death would be skewing lower now but I agree that Thanksgiving is going to pour gas on a fire

we are staying home
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jamey
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In reply to cone • 9:08p, 11/21/20
AG
Just as an extreme example


Say you have a population of 100 people age 1 - 100


Everyone 65 or older shelters in place and therefore doesn't get sick. None die of covid. It doesn't kill anyone 1 - 40 so all the deaths are in the 41-64 age group



That would be skewed data vs what we saw previously where the vast majority of deaths were retirement age and older
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cone
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In reply to jamey • 9:14p, 11/21/20
AG
that's what I'm saying

the avg age of death before was above the life expectancy

I'm wondering if it's significantly lower now
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jamey
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In reply to cone • 9:30p, 11/21/20
AG
cone said:
that's what I'm saying

the avg age of death before was above the life expectancy

I'm wondering if it's significantly lower now


I would guess not. I think ots skewed but not that much. In reality not everyone 65 or oldernis sheltering in place, just more are being careful than before.



My parents are in their 80s. They have friends that are very careful and some aren't. A few recently got covid, one is in the 7th day post symptoms so I think we know how well he's really doing soon


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AustinAg2K
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9:34p, 11/21/20
I think the premise that older people are sheltering is flawed. I know plenty of olds, including my parents, that haven't changed their lifestyle much at all.
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amercer
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9:56a, 12/10/20
AG
Looks like the number might be 100k
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I Am A Critic
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In reply to amercer • 10:27a, 12/10/20
amercer said:
Looks like the number might be 100k
December alone will be 100k.
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Aston94
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2:20p, 12/10/20
AG
We will cross 300,000 death mark today or tomorrow, and given there are 21 days left in the month I don't think it is far fetched to expect 400,000 by the end of the year.
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Justin2010
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8:50p, 12/10/20
AG
Get the vaccine to the nursing homes as soon as possible. Everything else is up to people's choices.
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JamesE4
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12:10a, 12/11/20
AG
So the highest 7 day average all year was 2500 and we are going to average 5000 for the next 20 days?
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Teb1
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In reply to jamey • 1:33a, 12/11/20
It does kill people under 40. Sorry if people can't understand that. Ask the nurses on the covid floor about the ptsd they have from hearing the screams of the parents. Also, 30percent of people , including asymptomatics develop myocarditis as a long term issue. Let everyone do what is best for their families because you have no idea the reasons behind their choices.
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The Big12Ag
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In reply to Teb1 • 8:00a, 12/11/20
Teb1 said:
It does kill people under 40. Sorry if people can't understand that. Ask the nurses on the covid floor about the ptsd they have from hearing the screams of the parents. Also, 30percent of people , including asymptomatics develop myocarditis as a long term issue. Let everyone do what is best for their families because you have no idea the reasons behind their choices.
This pandemic has led to me researching things I don't normally even think about, and some info I've learned about the flu, respiratory viruses, and viruses in general has been surprising - and disturbing. Another sad fact I learned is just how many young people die all the time, I guess it's still rare when considered individually but the total numbers for the country are depressing. Since February 1st of 2020, there have been 196,000 US deaths among people aged 44 and younger. That's a lot of parents potentially screaming in pain and a lot of health care ptsd, it's sad. 7,300 (3.8%) of those were due to Covid, it does kill people under age 45 and it's something we should keep in mind and acknowledge as fact.

However, almost 10% of the overall, all ages, deaths in the US were due to Covid - it skews very strongly to the elder population. If under age 1, it's been 0.19% of total deaths in that age group, if age 1 to 4 it's been 0.6% of total deaths, if age 5 to 14 it's been 1.0% of total deaths, if age 15 to 24 it's been 1.5% of total deaths, if age 25 to 34 it's been 3.2% of total deaths, and if age 35 to 44 it's been 5.8% of total deaths. Once you get to the age groups above age 45 it's anywhere from 8 to 11% of total deaths. I think most everyone here has already seen these numbers, but I hadn't revisited them in a long time personally.

Myocarditis does occur, as is possible with most respiratory illnesses, but the rate at which it occurs to still be debated. There was an early German study that stated something like 70% of hospitalized people - and it was reported widely. Other studies have not noted that however, and one of the more recent studies I found is here https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/newsroom/news-releases/covid-19-story-tip-autopsied-hearts-show-myocarditis-link-to-covid-19-rarer-than-previously-believed .

Everyone keep researching treatments and impacts and make the best choice possible.
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QuantumNoodle
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8:01a, 12/11/20
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amercer
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In reply to JamesE4 • 10:25a, 12/11/20
AG
JamesE4 said:
So the highest 7 day average all year was 2500 and we are going to average 5000 for the next 20 days?


Deaths have been running at about 1.7% of reported cases 22 days prior for a while. (Note that isn't the IFR, just a correlation that has held steady since summer)

If that holds the average by the end of the month will be 3500/day.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to amercer • 11:49a, 12/11/20
CDC is projecting 60 days of 3000+ deaths before things start falling.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/529709-cdc-director-us-covid-19-deaths-likely-to-exceed-9-11-toll-for-60-days
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GAC06
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In reply to Teb1 • 12:56p, 12/11/20
AG
Teb1 said:
It does kill people under 40. Sorry if people can't understand that. Ask the nurses on the covid floor about the ptsd they have from hearing the screams of the parents. Also, 30percent of people , including asymptomatics develop myocarditis as a long term issue. Let everyone do what is best for their families because you have no idea the reasons behind their choices.


30% of people develop myocarditis?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's a flat out lie.
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