Dr. Scott Atlas Apologizes

4,657 Views | 17 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by TheMasterplan
AgE Doc
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5:44p, 11/1/20
AG
Dr. Scott Atlas apologizes.

He also dismissed forecasts from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine that forecasts 399,000 coronavirus deaths in the US by February 1 under current conditions.

"The IHME model is really sort -- it's absurd to start looking at this model at this point," Atlas said. "At this point in time anybody who's even focusing on models has not learned from the past."

In July, the IHME model predicted 208,255 Americans would have died from coronavirus by Nov. 1. In fact, according to Johns Hopkins University, 230,566 people have died as of Nov. 1.


Addendum: I guess I buried the lead... He isn't apologizing for his thoughts on the IHME. He is apologizing for being unwitting pawn for a Russian state TV misinformation campaign in an unauthorized interview with Russia Today.
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Keegan99
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5:52p, 11/1/20
AG
IHME has been revisionist trash for months.

If you want to see how terrible it's been, look at their projections for Sweden, and how they memory-hole each bad number.

They predicted 400,000+ in the US by 1/1 a few months back. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/key-coronavirus-forecast-predicts-over-410000-total-us-deaths-by-jan-1.html) They will miss that projection by a huge number.

Youyang Gu rightfully called them out on their garbage. They literally failed to project two weeks out with the correct slope.
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ORAggieFan
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5:55p, 11/1/20
IHME is absolute garbage. There is a reason they don't keep their past predictions public.

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Keegan99
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5:56p, 11/1/20
AG


This is IHME whiffing outside their 95% confidence interval on a TWO WEEK timeline.
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Keegan99
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6:01p, 11/1/20
AG
Sweden!







My favorite part of their model is the "masks work because we have this parameter that says masks work" component. Even though it fails to represent reality, as it does in Sweden.


That IHME presents no evidence of backtesting their model and in fact actively erases any historical projections so users cannot assess the model quality is very, very telling.
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cone
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In reply to AgE Doc • 6:12p, 11/1/20
AG
this is kind of a bait and switch

he apologized for talking to RT
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AgE Doc
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In reply to cone • 6:16p, 11/1/20
AG
True, good point.

Addendum: I guess I buried the lead... He isn't apologizing for his thoughts on the IHME. He is apologizing for being unwitting pawn for a Russian state TV misinformation campaign in an unauthorized interview with Russia Today.
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AgE Doc
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9:12p, 11/16/20
AG
Stanford University distances themselves from neuroradiology specialist Dr. Scott Atlas. (LINK)[url=https://news.stanford.edu/2020/11/16/statement-regarding-scott-atlas/][/url]
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ORAggieFan
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In reply to AgE Doc • 9:21p, 11/16/20
AgE Doc said:
Stanford University distances themselves from neuroradiology specialist Dr. Scott Atlas. (LINK)[url=https://news.stanford.edu/2020/11/16/statement-regarding-scott-atlas/][/url]

Woke university in the middle of the most liberal part of the US distances themselves from someone associated with the other political party? This has nothing to do with science....
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jamey
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In reply to AgE Doc • 9:46p, 11/16/20
AG
AgE Doc said:


In July, the IHME model predicted 208,255 Americans would have died from coronavirus by Nov. 1. In fact, according to Johns Hopkins University, 230,566 people have died as of Nov. 1.




So they underestimated by some ~10%.

That doesn't seem unreasonable given countless variables across different counties
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AgE Doc
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In reply to jamey • 10:02p, 11/16/20
AG
jamey said:
AgE Doc said:


In July, the IHME model predicted 208,255 Americans would have died from coronavirus by Nov. 1. In fact, according to Johns Hopkins University, 230,566 people have died as of Nov. 1.




So they underestimated by some ~10%.

That doesn't seem unreasonable given countless variables across different counties
I agree.

I think IHME's projections for the US have been reasonably accurate given the number of variables that can occur over the longer time frames that they try to project. Usually for the United States the IHME has underestimated the mortalities.

The Mask Deniers don't like them because they show that controlling just that variable saves tens of thousands of lives over the course of the pandemic in this country. Because of this they try to nit pick their projections and then try to throw the baby out with the bathwater when they find something that may have not have been accurately projected.
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jamey
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10:17p, 11/16/20
AG
I gave up explaining cause and effect as it pertains to projections and actions taken months ago.

In fact I'm quite certain there's educated people who are willfully ignorant due to politics
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jamey
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In reply to AgE Doc • 10:24a, 11/17/20
AG
AgE Doc said:
jamey said:
AgE Doc said:


In July, the IHME model predicted 208,255 Americans would have died from coronavirus by Nov. 1. In fact, according to Johns Hopkins University, 230,566 people have died as of Nov. 1.




So they underestimated by some ~10%.

That doesn't seem unreasonable given countless variables across different counties
I agree.

I think IHME's projections for the US have been reasonably accurate given the number of variables that can occur over the longer time frames that they try to project. Usually for the United States the IHME has underestimated the mortalities.

The Mask Deniers don't like them because they show that controlling just that variable saves tens of thousands of lives over the course of the pandemic in this country. Because of this they try to nit pick their projections and then try to throw the baby out with the bathwater when they find something that may have not have been accurately projected.


[Reminder, poltical comments are not wanted on this forum. Thanks. - Staff]
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AgsMyDude
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9:58p, 11/30/20
AG
Homeboy resigned

https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-atlas-idINKBN28B3IT
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FlyRod
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10:46p, 11/30/20
Good riddance.
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2PacShakur
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In reply to Keegan99 • 12:06a, 12/1/20
AG
Keegan99 said:


This is IHME whiffing outside their 95% confidence interval on a TWO WEEK timeline.

Those forecasts, think Gu was off.
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AgResearch
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In reply to AgsMyDude • 6:03a, 12/1/20
AG
AgsMyDude said:
Homeboy resigned

https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-atlas-idINKBN28B3IT


His 130 day appointment was ending next week anyway.
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cone
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12:55p, 12/1/20
AG
i'll give Scott one thing

he was right about schools before the election made it possible to be both polite and right about schools
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TheMasterplan
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In reply to AgsMyDude • 1:47p, 12/1/20
AgsMyDude said:
Homeboy resigned

https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-atlas-idINKBN28B3IT
Shame.

The only level headed "expert" out there. He actually believed in balance and not the narrow minded views of academics and life long bureaucrats.
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