Pfizer says they are at 90% effective as of now. Good right?

5,546 Views | 49 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by KlinkerAg11
nhamp07
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AG
Pfizer says an early peek at its vaccine data suggests the shots may be 90% effective at preventing COVID-19, indicating the company is on track later this month to file an emergency use application with U.S. regulators.
Monday's announcement doesn't mean a vaccine is imminent: This interim analysis, from an independent data monitoring board, looked at 94 infections recorded so far in a study that has enrolled nearly 44,000 people in the U.S. and five other countries.
Pfizer Inc. did not provide any more details about those cases, and cautioned the initial protection rate might change by the time the study ends. Even revealing such early data is highly unusual.

"We're in a position potentially to be able to offer some hope," Dr. Bill Gruber, Pfizer's senior vice president of clinical development, told The Associated Press. "We're very encouraged."
Authorities have stressed it's unlikely any vaccine will arrive much before the end of the year, and limited initial supplies will be rationed.
The shots made by Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech are among 10 possible vaccine candidates in late-stage testing around the world four of them so far in huge studies in the U.S. Another U.S. company, Moderna Inc., also has said it hopes to be able to file an application with the Food and Drug Administration later this month.
Volunteers in the final-stage studies, and the researchers, don't know who received the real vaccine or a dummy shot. But a week after their second required dose, Pfizer's study began counting the number who developed COVID-19 symptoms and were confirmed to have the coronavirus.
Because the study hasn't ended, Gruber couldn't say how many in each group had infections. Doing the math, that would mean almost all the infections counted so far had to have occurred in people who got the dummy shots.
Pfizer doesn't plan to stop its study until it records 164 infections among all the volunteers, a number that the FDA has agreed is enough to tell how well the vaccine is working. The agency has made clear that any vaccine must be at least 50% effective.
No participant so far has become severely ill, Gruber said. Nor could he provide a breakdown of how many of the infections had occurred in older people, who are at highest risk from COVID-19.
Participants were tested only if they developed symptoms, leaving unanswered whether vaccinated people could get infected but show no symptoms and unknowingly spread the virus.

FDA has required that U.S. vaccine candidates be studied in at least 30,000 people. In addition to adequate numbers of older adults, those studies must also include other groups at high risk, including minorities and people with chronic health problems.
And it told companies they must track half their participants for side effects for at least two months, the time period when problems typically crop up. Pfizer expects to reach that milestone later this month, but said Monday no serious safety concerns have been reported.
Because the pandemic is still raging, manufacturers hope to seek permission from governments around the world for emergency use of their vaccines while additional testing continues allowing them to get to market faster than normal but raising concerns about how much scientists will know about the shots.
The FDA's scientific advisers last month said they worry that allowing emergency use of a COVID-19 vaccine could damage confidence in the shots and make it harder to ever find out how well they really work. Those advisers said it's critical these massive studies are allowed to run to completion.
cone
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lol I do love the timing

smart but still gotta love it
CowtownAg06
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The market believes it's good. Dow Futs up over 5%.
KlinkerAg11
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90 percent effective is pretty amazing.
EKG1996
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AggieZee
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cone
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does anyone know the platform they used for development?

same as moderna?
Davanji84
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Great news
I don't give two craps about the politics of the timing. Guessing most others won't either.
cone
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what's remarkable is how the timing will effect the acceptance of the results

it was going to be good news regardless

now it's good news we can politely use
amercer
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cone said:

does anyone know the platform they used for development?

same as moderna?


Same technology. Some differences in makeup and formulation (as well as cold chain requirements)

90% is a ****ing home run.
cone
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amazing news

still not giving it to my kids. also I'm in that middle ground (40) where I'm concerned about the long term safety of that platform.

but given where this disease kills (advanced age), this is a show stopper.
Gordo14
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cone said:

amazing news

still not giving it to my kids. also I'm in that middle ground (40) where I'm concerned about the long term safety of that platform.

but given where this disease kills (advanced age), this is a show stopper.


They have injected at least 22,000 people with it and have not found a problem with it. At this point, people are more likely to have long term consequences from the virus than the vaccine.

I can't imagine why people still would rather get sick than get a vaccine.
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Gordo14
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Truly an incredible moment to be at this point just 10 months after knowing the virus exists. If we can get people the vaccine by thr spring, it should go up there as one of America's greatest achievements.
amercer
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You may not have to worry about giving it to your kids for a bit, since they haven't even started trials in kids. Might be required for school next fall though.
KlinkerAg11
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Now starts the next biggest hurdle, selling the public on it. (besides distribution, that will be tough be we will figure it out)

If you can convince people that it is safe and works life goes back to normal quicker.

BBQ4Me
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For laymen like me who wonder how efficacy is calculated, here's how it appears to have been calculated:

Control : 94 / 21769 = 0.00432
Exp: 8 / 21769 = 0.000367

Efficacy = (0.00432 - 0.000367) / 0.00432 * 100 = 91%

Caveat: assuming equal sample sizes
cone
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Quote:

At this point, people are more likely to have long term consequences from the virus than the vaccine.

I can't imagine why people still would rather get sick than get a vaccine.
i have no desire to get sick from this. i've been trying my hardest and using my full privilege in that respect.

but i simply have substantial reservations about the mrna platform and long-term autoimmune response

effectively, what's going to happen when you put mrna instructions into your cells and tell them to make proteins that are foreign to your body to cause an immune response? would we be comfortable with the safety of the platform (as proven in less than a year) in young people even if the vaccine effectiveness is high? would a much longer safety trial be needed for that cohort?

i know (especially with rapidly shifting underlying political orthodoxies) that this position will now get painted as anti-vaxx. whatever. i'm concerned about the disease and the cure. and personally, i'd rather wait for a more proven platform (and i think alternatives exist). i'd love to take the BCG vaccine right now if i could get a shot. that's 100% can't hurt might help and no fear of the safety implications.

this is a triumph and i really hope that my anxieties with regard to safety are completely unfounded. if the pandemic creates a huge leap forward in biotech than that's an absolute good that's come from the misery. but IMO the people most thrilled should be the people with the most to lose - the old and the infirm.
cone
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i would hope it would be required for teachers and staff far before students

especially elementary kids
cone
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here's a question

if you're under 45, would you rather:

-take a mRNA vaccine that gets rolled out in April with 90% purported effectiveness?

-take the Sinopharm inactivated virus vaccine that gets rolled out in October 2021 with 55% effectiveness?
Marauder Blue 6
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KlinkerAg11 said:

Now starts the next biggest hurdle, selling the public on it. (besides distribution, that will be tough be we will figure it out)

If you can convince people that it is safe and works life goes back to normal quicker.




Distribution is already being handled. The issue will
be having enough doses.
amercer
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I think what we will see is rapid uptake by at risk groups, which should reduce deaths by 95%. The question will be what happens after that. There will be a strong (and justified) desire to get back to normal, even though 90% of people won't be vaccinated at that point.

In the end, uptake among younger people will probably be poor and this will continue as an endemic disease that will kill a couple thousand people a year.
KlinkerAg11
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When will it be given emergency use and start getting distributed?
tysker
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CNBC reporting it will likely be summer 2021 before widespread availability. Pfizer vaccine is a two shot vaccine.
tysker
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will people get a vaccine if they are certain they were already infected due to symptoms (e.g. loss of taste/smell) but never took or received a positive?
amercer
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KlinkerAg11 said:

When will it be given emergency use and start getting distributed?


25 million people vaccinated by the end of the year is best case. Young healthy people probably not until next summer
KlinkerAg11
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Like you said I think the death rate plummets once people get the vaccine who are at risk.

Then it will be up to healthy people if they want the vaccine or not.

Once the death rate plummets and hospitalized isn't an issue can't you open the country completely?
BBQ4Me
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I think one key factor in non-elderly people's calculus for getting the vaccine are whether there are long term health issues associated with getting COVID vs any vaccine risks. Sure would be nice if there were studies about both, but obviously these are new things
amercer
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I assume there will still be a bit of a red/blue split on that one. But yeah, some places may be almost back to normal by February.
vwbug
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And released right after Biden named president.
plain_o_llama
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If you want a dose of skepticism beyond the timing issues, info leaks, and fortunes won and lost in market trading....

To me these results have a basic "tiny number" problem. The trial is considered definitive eventually looking at 164 cases from a population of 44,000 during only a portion of the known "cold and flu" season. According to this they have only seen 102 cases. 164 cases would mean looking to find a signal amongst 0.3% of a sample population using PCR testing as one of your key measuring tools.

Perhaps more data will be released soon.

YMMV
amercer
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If it makes you feel better, their initial number for interim assessment was 32 cases.

Also, my reading of the trial protocol is that these are all symptomatic cases. They aren't testing participants unless they report acute respiratory illness.
plain_o_llama
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amercer said:

If it makes you feel better, their initial number for interim assessment was 32 cases.

Also, my reading of the trial protocol is that these are all symptomatic cases. They aren't testing participants unless they report acute respiratory illness.

And interestingly they waited and didn't push for that interim assessment. :-)

I'm hoping for definitive results from which a clear case can be made for individuals benefiting from the vaccine themselves. The alternative of trying to make a herd immunity argument and mandating vaccinations will devolve into a mess.
cone
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this is neat

https://news.yahoo.com/cuomo-bad-news-pfizer-announced-145002578.html
amercer
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It's an especially dumb argument because Pfizer was never part of operation warp speed, and had already decided to distribute the vaccine with its own logistics network. Being the biggest drug company in the world, they can pull this off.

If Cuomo wants to get involved, I'm sure Moderna will need distribution help.
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