Separate died FROM Covid vs died WITH Covid.

It doesn't fit the fear mongering narrative, but would probably paint a very different picture.

Well, either this Johns Hopkins professor completely ignored the well-documented excess-death data...

Or this student author for a student newspaper mischaracterized the data presented in the professor's webinar - which seems to be clearly focused on just the elderly - and made it look like the data applied to all Covid deaths.

Which is probably why the article was taken down.

Thank goodness that the conspiracy theorists saved an image of it for us.

deadbq03 said:

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Well, either this Johns Hopkins professor completely ignored the well-documented excess-death data...

Or this student author for a student newspaper mischaracterized the data presented in the professor's webinar - which seems to be clearly focused on just the elderly - and made it look like the data applied to all Covid deaths.

Which is probably why the article was taken down.

Thank goodness that the conspiracy theorists saved an image of it for us.

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So many people out there trying to twist the narrative with false information.

And I know I've posted a couple of bad click bait Twitter headlines without reading the entire story that fall into the same category.

deadbq03 said:

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Well, either this Johns Hopkins professor completely ignored the well-documented excess-death data...

Or this student author for a student newspaper mischaracterized the data presented in the professor's webinar - which seems to be clearly focused on just the elderly - and made it look like the data applied to all Covid deaths.

Which is probably why the article was taken down.

Thank goodness that the conspiracy theorists saved an image of it for us.

---

You are 100% wrong about "why the article was taken down". JH removed the article but not because any inaccuracies but because "Though making clear the need for further research, the article was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic." Basically, the facts did not support the fear narrative. If you find an inaccuracy, please provide your data.

NicosMachine said:

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deadbq03 said:

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Well, either this Johns Hopkins professor completely ignored the well-documented excess-death data...

Or this student author for a student newspaper mischaracterized the data presented in the professor's webinar - which seems to be clearly focused on just the elderly - and made it look like the data applied to all Covid deaths.

Which is probably why the article was taken down.

Thank goodness that the conspiracy theorists saved an image of it for us.

---

You are 100% wrong about "why the article was taken down". JH removed the article but not because any inaccuracies but because "Though making clear the need for further research, the article was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic." Basically, the facts did not support the fear narrative. If you find an inaccuracy, please provide your data.

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We have about 300,000 excess deaths so far in the United States for 2020. That's documented well enough for me.

PJYoung said:

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NicosMachine said:

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deadbq03 said:

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Well, either this Johns Hopkins professor completely ignored the well-documented excess-death data...

Or this student author for a student newspaper mischaracterized the data presented in the professor's webinar - which seems to be clearly focused on just the elderly - and made it look like the data applied to all Covid deaths.

Which is probably why the article was taken down.

Thank goodness that the conspiracy theorists saved an image of it for us.

---

You are 100% wrong about "why the article was taken down". JH removed the article but not because any inaccuracies but because "Though making clear the need for further research, the article was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic." Basically, the facts did not support the fear narrative. If you find an inaccuracy, please provide your data.

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We have about 300,000 excess deaths so far in the United States for 2020. That's well documented enough for me.

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Please post a link. Back in Sept I read an article that even with Covid the US number of deaths was on pace to be within a few thousand of our last few years average. I'm curious to know if that few thousand turned into a few 100k.

Gilligan said:

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PJYoung said:

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NicosMachine said:

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deadbq03 said:

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Well, either this Johns Hopkins professor completely ignored the well-documented excess-death data...

Or this student author for a student newspaper mischaracterized the data presented in the professor's webinar - which seems to be clearly focused on just the elderly - and made it look like the data applied to all Covid deaths.

Which is probably why the article was taken down.

Thank goodness that the conspiracy theorists saved an image of it for us.

---

You are 100% wrong about "why the article was taken down". JH removed the article but not because any inaccuracies but because "Though making clear the need for further research, the article was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic." Basically, the facts did not support the fear narrative. If you find an inaccuracy, please provide your data.

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We have about 300,000 excess deaths so far in the United States for 2020. That's well documented enough for me.

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Please post a link. Back in Sept I read an article that even with Covid the US number of deaths was on pace to be within a few thousand of our last few years average. I'm curious to know if that few thousand turned into a few 100k.

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One of many:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6942e2-H.pdf

deadbq03 said:

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Gilligan said:

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PJYoung said:

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NicosMachine said:

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deadbq03 said:

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Well, either this Johns Hopkins professor completely ignored the well-documented excess-death data...

Or this student author for a student newspaper mischaracterized the data presented in the professor's webinar - which seems to be clearly focused on just the elderly - and made it look like the data applied to all Covid deaths.

Which is probably why the article was taken down.

Thank goodness that the conspiracy theorists saved an image of it for us.

---

You are 100% wrong about "why the article was taken down". JH removed the article but not because any inaccuracies but because "Though making clear the need for further research, the article was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic." Basically, the facts did not support the fear narrative. If you find an inaccuracy, please provide your data.

---

We have about 300,000 excess deaths so far in the United States for 2020. That's well documented enough for me.

---

Please post a link. Back in Sept I read an article that even with Covid the US number of deaths was on pace to be within a few thousand of our last few years average. I'm curious to know if that few thousand turned into a few 100k.

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One of many:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6942e2-H.pdf

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In calculating excess deaths, that study omitted data from Weeks when the observed numbers of deaths were below the average numbers from 2015 to 2019 (i.e., negative values were treated as 0 excess deaths). Why? How does that make sense? It skews the numbers significantly because it assumes if there were no excess deaths, the numbers were wrong. It assumes excess deaths because that is the result they desired.

Are you basing that on the 2nd chart on page 1524? If so, you're completely misreading that chart.

deadbq03 said:

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Are you basing that on the 2nd chart on page 1524? If so, you're completely misreading that chart.

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No. Basing it on article footnotes which say as much.

Watch the entire presentation. The author uses the CDC numbers. Of note, every year, there is an increase of 908 deaths per week, or approximately 50,000 per year. The study cited to prove "300,000 excess deaths" uses data from 2015 as part of the baseline for 2020 excess deaths and admittedly does not adjust for the natural increase 250,000 deaths per year since 2015 caused by an ever increasing and aging population.

NicosMachine said:

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deadbq03 said:

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Are you basing that on the 2nd chart on page 1524? If so, you're completely misreading that chart.

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No. Basing it on article footnotes which say as much.

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Referring to footnote "ss"? That footnote only applies to one sentence in the paper...


"The total number of excess deaths (deaths above average levels) from January 26 through October 3 ranged from a low of approximately 841 in the youngest age group (<25 years) to a high of 94,646 among adults aged 7584 years."ss

Seems like you're grasping here to fit your own narrative.

Also can't help but notice you literally have a conspiracy theory in your signature line.

Is there a table listing total US deaths per year? No interpretation, no extrapolation, no trending, no opinions? I Would like to see just the raw numbers. Thank you.

Thanks for posting the presentation.

Sadly, I could only make it 17 minutes. I could break down the reasons why I bailed at 17 minutes, but I'd just be wasting my time.

I'll absolutely admit that I was wrong about my initial impressions of the student-author. I think she's properly quoting this instructor. My first statement is then correct, and while it was the least-likely option of the two I presented, it's not all that surprising. We're all subject to confirmation bias, which is why the peer review process is important.

In this case, she's skirting peer review by presenting this to her online students; not to peers in a conference, nor for publication in a journal. I suppose if you want to hail her as a renegade bastion of truth amongst the academic elite, you're welcome to and we'll just have to disagree about the validity of her analysis.

for the simpletons who need a visual representation of the excess deaths in the U.S.,

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-cumulative-deaths

Aggie95 said:

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How many deaths in the US so far in 2020?

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Good question.

Using the CDC flu monitor website: 2,691,740 deaths.

This is based on the CDC data export from the downloads link in this URL: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

Used this as it appeared to be the same source of data the ultimate author was using.

This is as of week 44, because this represents the most recent week in which the data appears to be complete (based on the percent complete column in the data).

Few recent years which were available from that download:
Wk 44, 2017: 2,354,831
Wk 44, 2018: 2,388,762 (33,931 increase YOY)
Wk 44, 2019: 2,391,701 (2,939 increase YOY)
Wk 44, 2020: 2,691,740 (300,039 increase YOY)


I just summed up the total deaths in the years in the file. Started with 2017 as that was the first full year of data in that excel file. Feel free to download and check it.

Note that this data set has a reporting lag. By using the percent complete column, I tried to ignore that effect. However, if that percent complete is based on expected deaths, and if we are currently in an excess death situation, its possible that is still materially understating total deaths.

winorgetadog said:

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for the simpletons who need a visual representation of the excess deaths in the U.S.,

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-cumulative-deaths

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This simpleton(thanks man) wants to know if the population is the same this year? Compared to last year.

Maybe that is built in?

dermdoc said:

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winorgetadog said:

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for the simpletons who need a visual representation of the excess deaths in the U.S.,

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-cumulative-deaths

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This simpleton(thanks man) wants to know if the population is the same this year? Compared to last year.

Maybe that is built in?

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It is really is sad how politicized science has become. This should be a couple simple charts for the CDC to post.

Chart 1: ACTUAL deaths from this year compared to LAST.

Chart 2: ACTUAL deaths this year compared to EXPECTED deaths this year- accounting for increased and aging population. [Expected deaths this year better be higher than the year previous or more politicized bs would be in the number]...

Aston04 said:

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dermdoc said:

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winorgetadog said:

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for the simpletons who need a visual representation of the excess deaths in the U.S.,

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-cumulative-deaths

---

This simpleton(thanks man) wants to know if the population is the same this year? Compared to last year.

Maybe that is built in?

---

It is really is sad how politicized science has become. This should be a couple simple charts for the CDC to post.

Chart 1: ACTUAL deaths from this year compared to LAST.

Chart 2: ACTUAL deaths this year compared to EXPECTED deaths this year- accounting for increased and aging population. [Expected deaths this year better be higher than the year previous or more politicized bs would be in the number]...

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They've got something like that here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Percentage of population that died in each of those years up to week 44 according to the above posted numbers:

2017: 0.72%
2018: 0.73%
2019: 0.73%

For population growth to account for that significant change in total deaths assuming the same rate of death, we would have needed to see an influx of 40 million people into the US. Pretty sure that didn't happen.

Thread title is insulting to anyone who has even had a cursory interest in reading about the pandemic over the past 8 months.

There is a group of people desperate to believe this is a fake pandemic. I don't know if it's a natural fear response (I'm scared, if I prove to myself it's not a real threat my fear will go away), something politically related (my party leadership say it's the other side manipulating us), or something triggered by manipulative articles competing countries embed in social media. This goes the other way too, for people who state this is a health threat that should have us all cowering in our safe rooms. But that latter category was dominant in March on this board, in recent months the "it's not a real disease!!" nocoronabros are posting obsessively.

It's a pandemic. There have been worse pandemics. We (ie THE WORLD, not just the US) may have over reacted in hindsight. Great majority of fatalities are older people, like most respiratory illnesses. It's worse than the flu but not 10 times worse. It hospitalizes enough people to have protected ourselves with some distancing and tactical mask usage. The threat to children is almost nil, as far as risk of fatality, so we should have allowed school if we could protect older school staff. Vaccine investments by pharma show how real this is, and the speed of development, innovations, and fast tracking by government have all been impressive so far. Allow your mind to explore the grey area of the issue to discover the best data possible - it's not a binary "it's the black death 2"/"not even as bad as the common cold!!" issue.

PJYoung said:

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garyt73 said:

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Is there a table listing total US deaths per year? No interpretation, no extrapolation, no trending, no opinions? I Would like to see just the raw numbers. Thank you.

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Hotard had a very nice thread on all of this a few months ago.

https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3126261/replies

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Go here, to CDC's all cause mortality data.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

Below is the latest graph I've made using CDC's own all-cause death data and adjusting the data for year-over-year population growth.


Below, I tried to overlay the excess death with the reported deaths. You can see the trends are compatible with each other, showing that excess deaths being higher than reported deaths.


Below is a tabulation of the data I made from beginning of march to the end of the flu season (late september)


I think there can be a debate about what extent these deaths are directly attributable to coronavirus illness versus indirectly caused via suicide, not getting health care, etc. However, to deny that there is excess deaths is just not defensible.

The Big12Ag said:

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Thread title is insulting to anyone who has even had a cursory interest in reading about the pandemic over the past 8 months.

There is a group of people desperate to believe this is a fake pandemic. I don't know if it's a natural fear response (I'm scared, if I prove to myself it's not a real threat my fear will go away), something politically related (my party leadership say it's the other side manipulating us), or something triggered by manipulative articles competing countries embed in social media. This goes the other way too, for people who state this is a health threat that should have us all cowering in our safe rooms. But that latter category was dominant in March on this board, in recent months the "it's not a real disease!!" nocoronabros are posting obsessively.

It's a pandemic. There have been worse pandemics. We (ie THE WORLD, not just the US) may have over reacted in hindsight. Great majority of fatalities are older people, like most respiratory illnesses. It's worse than the flu but not 10 times worse. It hospitalizes enough people to have protected ourselves with some distancing and tactical mask usage. The threat to children is almost nil, as far as risk of fatality, so we should have allowed school if we could protect older school staff. Vaccine investments by pharma show how real this is, and the speed of development, innovations, and fast tracking by government have all been impressive so far. Allow your mind to explore the grey area of the issue to discover the best data possible - it's not a binary "it's the black death 2"/"not even as bad as the common cold!!" issue.

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Some good points here. Still, I don't think it's been a pandemic for at least 4-5 months. It's a casedemic. Nothing rising even close to the "Spanish Flu" etc. Inarguably the over-reaction has been worse than the disease, culturally, as the 'help' that has been implemented (lockdowns, masks), has not statistically altered the case levels, let alone deaths directly attributable to cases.

Falling in an election year in the US made the hysteria that much worse, imho (particularly with a media/Dem party rushing to panic as many as possible to point blame on the sitting President).