Curious if anyone has found data addressing diminished likelihood of being hot as no symptoms persist throughout the 14 day quarantine. I've seen stuff saying 97.5% are clear after 11.5 days- curious if there's any data for the interim or after periods... I take the above stat to mean there's a 2.5% chance of being hot if not sick after 11.5 days. Wondering what the odds are after, 7, 8, etc. and if there are any tables demonstrating this...

I looked for it before and got no further than you did with 97.5% at day 11, "most" at day 5.1 to 6.4

And 1 in 10,000 at day 14

CDC is changing guidelines to be 8-10 days vs 14 of quarantine. Idk ifcharts accompany the decision.

Ever find any more data on this?

Nope- my assumption is they're keeping those stats under wraps bc they'd show a dramatic drop in odds after day 6, then a flattening- and wouldn't be able to keep the 14 day nonsense going if it got out. Notice it's now a 10 day quarantine recommendation. Nevertheless 2 standard deviations sounded good, so they went w 14 days at 97.5%.

Of course...

88planoAg said:

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CDC is changing guidelines to be 8-10 days vs 14 of quarantine. Idk ifcharts accompany the decision.

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I think they do add the caveat that you don't have symptoms for 48 hours, right? Someone with a fever on day 11 would be contagious I would assume.