previous hotspots prior to US recent spike seem to be cooling down

3,818 Views | 27 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by 3rd Coast
Aggie95
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AG
Granted, I take some of these numbers with a grain of salt but France is down to under 10k per day and Italy looks to be under 20k per day. Good to see those areas calming down. I know they won't have the Thanksgiving issues we will.
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
cone
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so hard lockdown worked?
Aggie95
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cone said:

so hard lockdown worked?
hard to prove or disprove. They put lockdown measures in place 4 weeks ago, so either they experienced a lot transmission during lockdown and recent decline after 3 to 4 weeks.... or the typical spike and fall of a virus is on display.
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
NASAg03
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cone said:

so hard lockdown worked?


Correlation != Causation
cone
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AG
better safe than sorry imo
amercer
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Lockdowns absolutely work. Look at China.

The questions have always been, can a free country actually do it, and are they worth it?

Other than an actual zombie apocalypse, I don't see how a Chinese level lockdown would ever be worth it in a free country. Piecemeal efforts, with only partial buy in from the public have expectedly poor results though.

Nobody won this year. But just maybe, the vaccine tech that's been developed, and our greater understanding of how pandemics spread mean that we'll never do this again.
Aggie95
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and then as soon as the lockdown is over...the cases come back, so unless a society is capable, willing to lockdown for 12 months, it's pretty pointless.
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
cone
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I'm glad that we have had a vaccine tech breakthrough

I'm sad that our public health institutions (and the elites that communicate on their behalves) are a complete disaster
cone
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well, with the end in sight, lockdowns make more sense than ever before

you can actually plan and understand the amount of money needed to make it to a reasonable vaccine rollout
DFWTLR
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Isn't the end when a large majority of people have either had it or are vaccinated? I don't think a large majority will even get vaccinated, so locking down until that actually happens doesn't seem realistic.

If people are not comfortable going out why not just stay home, and let those of us who are continue to do so and support the businesses that need customers and revenue?
bigtruckguy3500
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DFWTLR said:

Isn't the end when a large majority of people have either had it or are vaccinated? I don't think a large majority will even get vaccinated, so locking down until that actually happens doesn't seem realistic.

If people are not comfortable going out why not just stay home, and let those of us who are continue to do so and support the businesses that need customers and revenue?
Because just because you're comfortable with accepting the risk doesn't mean you won't be part of the population that has severe disease and contributes to overwhelming hospital systems and overworking healthcare workers.

I'm not saying lockdowns are the answer, but I think slowing the spread is at least part of it. And people need to understand that there's a bigger picture than just their personal risk tolerance.
Bird Poo
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cone said:

well, with the end in sight, lockdowns make more sense than ever before

you can actually plan and understand the amount of money needed to make it to a reasonable vaccine rollout


Good lord
TexasAggie008
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the most frustrating part of this is that some talk about lockdowns as if they're the secret weapon covid-atomic bomb (huge downside, but guaranteed-to-work upside)..."lockdown's may cause a lot of collateral damage and hurt a lot of innocent people, but by God they'll solve the problem!"

Complete idiocy.

The (fairly analyzed) covid death scoreboard is going to look pretty similar when this is all over when comparing truly *comparable* cities/states/countries (aka - not "total deaths in the US vs total deaths in France" and other clickbait garbage).

Texas and California, polar opposites in terms of handling this, have taken turns having "most cases" for months now....except we're in the category that only slightly wrecked their economy by giving into only a few months of lockdown-peer pressure back in the Spring.

Quick look at our CDC friends' latest (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100k) and Johns Hopkins (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality) shows:

Deaths per 100K-

NY - 89
PA - 80
MI - 94
IL -101
CA - 48

TX - 74
FL - 86
MO - 62
TN - 67

US as a whole - 82

Belgium - 146
Italy - 92
UK - 88
Argentina - 87
France - 79

What reasonable person could look at that and envy the hardcore-lockdown model over the model that in all of western society, pretty much only red and purple US states have gone with? Its truly mindboggling....
coolerguy12
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What reasonable person could look at that and envy the hardcore-lockdown model

You have to understand that we are not dealing with reasonable people. Once you accept that fact it all makes much more sense.
DadHammer
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Cone

People have the option of locking themselves down.

If you were one of the laid off people trying to feed cloth and house their children you would be singing a different tune.

Not trying to be a smart to you just pointing out lockdowns are not the answer. If you are scared, lock yourself down but leave others alone.
beerad12man
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cone said:

well, with the end in sight, lockdowns make more sense than ever before

you can actually plan and understand the amount of money needed to make it to a reasonable vaccine rollout
No, they don't. Not sure why you keep saying this. You lose jobs / livelihoods right here at the end. The destruction that can cause can easily outweigh any benefit you get from it. 10 months in makes it even harder for some. It's already been hard enough. no telling what this will do, and what kind of public backlash you'd have. You'd likely have millions telling the gov't to f*** off anyways. It's not sensible to suggest now.

The never made sense, and they still don't in a free republic. They shouldn't even be allowed here. There are more important things for some of us.

Lockdowns literally make the least amount of sense now than ever before now that we have all the information we do. It's clear that anyone under 65 shouldn't really be acting much different than before this, let alone be locked down.

Not to mention it will take months, if not another year or so before you have enough of the vaccine out to end this thing. So just how long are you proposing a lock down? Even 2 weeks is unacceptable to many of us who know our relative risk, let alone 6 or 12 months or however long it would take to end this thing.
Capitol Ag
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AG
bigtruckguy3500 said:

DFWTLR said:

Isn't the end when a large majority of people have either had it or are vaccinated? I don't think a large majority will even get vaccinated, so locking down until that actually happens doesn't seem realistic.

If people are not comfortable going out why not just stay home, and let those of us who are continue to do so and support the businesses that need customers and revenue?
Because just because you're comfortable with accepting the risk doesn't mean you won't be part of the population that has severe disease and contributes to overwhelming hospital systems and overworking healthcare workers.

I'm not saying lockdowns are the answer, but I think slowing the spread is at least part of it. And people need to understand that there's a bigger picture than just their personal risk tolerance.
What's the supposed "bigger picture" though. Here is where things get murky and where those who want any kind of control get tempted by the wiggling worm they see, like a fish in a lake who goes to eat what seems like an easy meal only to become the meal when it turns out to be a turtle luring the poor fish to it's demise. In the end, a free society cannot just rest on other's seeing the bigger picture when, especially in this case, the odds that they become a super spreader are pretty damn low. It goes against human nature of a free society. And so many suffer b/c of this bigger picture when state and local governments pick and choose which businesses are "essential" and which are not. For instance, gyms have had only one case of a super spreader even, a small, closed room cycling class. That was back before the first major shutdowns. Nothing since. Yet gyms in states that are open have had no major (or even minor) outbreaks. Bear in mind that a large number of gyms do not enforce a mask policy. I have trained at various gyms around the DFW metroplex and most folks are maskless. I do not bring this up to debate masks, but to show that even without masks, between May and Dec 1 in TX, there hasn't been a case of a spreading event and at this point, if there is one, it's obviously so rear that it isn't worth making policy about. And we have already seen that strong, healthy individuals are much more likely to have better immune systems than people locked in their homes. And lets be honest, how many people who lack the discipline to go train are really going to workout at home? Few. Gyms SHOULD be considered essential. No doubt about it.

What about restaurants? Another situation where masks might be worn for the few seconds it takes to be seated but otherwise no. Yet, I have seen no major issues. Schools have minor outbreaks but honestly not much different than the flu outbreaks that happen each season. It's been the quarantining that has wiped out teachers and students due to contact tracing, not the actual virus. Yet these 3 areas are the first to be shut down. College football in TX and the south has been open to limited fans, and again, no major outbreaks associated with those events.

If there is a shut down again, the experts need to realize that honestly, the lesser evil is to stay open. And only shut down those things that are absolutely the most dangerous things to society. But in the end, in my opinion, the focus should be on treating those with the virus the best we can until the vaccine is here, as it is the most humane alternative we have at this point. The fact that states like California seem to be doubling down on lockdowns should make all of us very skeptical at this point.
The_Fox
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bigtruckguy3500 said:

DFWTLR said:

Isn't the end when a large majority of people have either had it or are vaccinated? I don't think a large majority will even get vaccinated, so locking down until that actually happens doesn't seem realistic.

If people are not comfortable going out why not just stay home, and let those of us who are continue to do so and support the businesses that need customers and revenue?
Because just because you're comfortable with accepting the risk doesn't mean you won't be part of the population that has severe disease and contributes to overwhelming hospital systems and overworking healthcare workers.

I'm not saying lockdowns are the answer, but I think slowing the spread is at least part of it. And people need to understand that there's a bigger picture than just their personal risk tolerance.


There is nothing, nothing, more important than the individual risk determination.

It doesn't make a difference if doctors are stacking dead manatees in hospital corridors like cord wood, we should not be restricting whether someone can earn a living for their family, travel, and determine their own mitigation strategy, or lack thereof.

The lethality of this virus does not even begin to merit the idiotic response that we have seen in this nation.
beerad12man
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AG
The_Fox said:

bigtruckguy3500 said:

DFWTLR said:

Isn't the end when a large majority of people have either had it or are vaccinated? I don't think a large majority will even get vaccinated, so locking down until that actually happens doesn't seem realistic.

If people are not comfortable going out why not just stay home, and let those of us who are continue to do so and support the businesses that need customers and revenue?
Because just because you're comfortable with accepting the risk doesn't mean you won't be part of the population that has severe disease and contributes to overwhelming hospital systems and overworking healthcare workers.

I'm not saying lockdowns are the answer, but I think slowing the spread is at least part of it. And people need to understand that there's a bigger picture than just their personal risk tolerance.


There is nothing, nothing, more important than the individual risk determination.

It doesn't make a difference if doctors are stacking dead manatees in hospital corridors like cord wood, we should not be restricting whether someone can earn a living for their family, travel, and determine their own mitigation strategy, or lack thereof.

The lethality of this virus does not even begin to merit the idiotic response that we have seen in this nation.
Yep.This is what a free republic is, and I wouldn't give it up for anything.
CowtownEng
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The_Fox said:

bigtruckguy3500 said:

DFWTLR said:

Isn't the end when a large majority of people have either had it or are vaccinated? I don't think a large majority will even get vaccinated, so locking down until that actually happens doesn't seem realistic.

If people are not comfortable going out why not just stay home, and let those of us who are continue to do so and support the businesses that need customers and revenue?
Because just because you're comfortable with accepting the risk doesn't mean you won't be part of the population that has severe disease and contributes to overwhelming hospital systems and overworking healthcare workers.

I'm not saying lockdowns are the answer, but I think slowing the spread is at least part of it. And people need to understand that there's a bigger picture than just their personal risk tolerance.


There is nothing, nothing, more important than the individual risk determination.

It doesn't make a difference if doctors are stacking dead manatees in hospital corridors like cord wood, we should not be restricting whether someone can earn a living for their family, travel, and determine their own mitigation strategy, or lack thereof.

The lethality of this virus does not even begin to merit the idiotic response that we have seen in this nation.


I sympathize with this position, but it's also the reason why the country is screwed if a virus actually does come along which is as lethal as COVID was thought to be (2-3% IFR).
GAC06
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AG
Sounds like a problem to discuss if a much more deadly virus comes along. If this was smallpox no one would be complaining about restrictions, they'd be scared to death and headed for the hills
amercer
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Glad to see so many fellow libertarians on here. Which of Jo Jorgensen's policy proposals did you like best?
B-1 83
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amercer said:

Lockdowns absolutely work. Look at China.

The questions have always been, can a free country actually do it, and are they worth it?

Other than an actual zombie apocalypse, I don't see how a Chinese level lockdown would ever be worth it in a free country. Piecemeal efforts, with only partial buy in from the public have expectedly poor results though.

Nobody won this year. But just maybe, the vaccine tech that's been developed, and our greater understanding of how pandemics spread mean that we'll never do this again.
They stopped poverty, too.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-11-27/china-2020-poverty-eradication-dream
TexasAggie008
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On the cliche political spectrum of "to what extent should the government provide a social safety net?" - we all fall somewhere.....and where each of us falls correlates heavily to how we've each viewed covid from the beginning I'd bet.

Guessing those who are pro-large safety net side have viewed Covid from day 1 as a blatantly obvious example of a situation that CLEARLY calls for the government and public health experts to keep us "safe" by any means necessary - they're trained professionals after all...the more aggressive the mitigation efforts (lockdowns, masks, you name it) the better.

Things like in-person work and school and vacations and holidays and restaurants can wait, and - obviously - the government can and should keep the checks coming to those who can't safely work during this. Oh and the massive debt that would be racked up to keep people afloat during this dire emergency? That can easily be made whole if we'd simply modernize our tax system in line with our western allies and embrace a more "fair" society going forward.




The_Fox
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TexasAggie008 said:

On the cliche political spectrum of "to what extent should the government provide a social safety net?" - we all fall somewhere.....and where each of us falls correlates heavily to how we've each viewed covid from the beginning I'd bet.

Guessing those who are pro-large safety net side have viewed Covid from day 1 as a blatantly obvious example of a situation that CLEARLY calls for the government and public health experts to keep us "safe" by any means necessary - they're trained professionals after all...the more aggressive the mitigation efforts (lockdowns, masks, you name it) the better.

Things like in-person work and school and vacations and holidays and restaurants can wait, and - obviously - the government can and should keep the checks coming to those who can't safely work during this. Oh and the massive debt that would be racked up to keep people afloat during this dire emergency? That can easily be made whole if we'd simply modernize our tax system in line with our western allies and embrace a more "fair" society going forward.







You need to shut your commie mouth!
P.U.T.U
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AG
TexasAggie008 said:

On the cliche political spectrum of "to what extent should the government provide a social safety net?" - we all fall somewhere.....and where each of us falls correlates heavily to how we've each viewed covid from the beginning I'd bet.

Guessing those who are pro-large safety net side have viewed Covid from day 1 as a blatantly obvious example of a situation that CLEARLY calls for the government and public health experts to keep us "safe" by any means necessary - they're trained professionals after all...the more aggressive the mitigation efforts (lockdowns, masks, you name it) the better.

Things like in-person work and school and vacations and holidays and restaurants can wait, and - obviously - the government can and should keep the checks coming to those who can't safely work during this. Oh and the massive debt that would be racked up to keep people afloat during this dire emergency? That can easily be made whole if we'd simply modernize our tax system in line with our western allies and embrace a more "fair" society going forward.





Schools have proven to be safer for the kids transmitting the disease than at home where they have a much higher chance of getting it from an adult.

What is deemed safe to work? Maybe I have a different mindset than others since I have continued working the entire time as well as my wife. I visiting my customers who were deemed essential like power plants, meat packing factories, manufacturing centers, etc. that could not stop working without it stopping the country. Covid has already gone through the majority of my customers and no deaths with me knowing of well over 100 people getting it.

Life is not fair nor should it be. You play with the hand you have not the hand you want. Politicians are playing politics and large portions of society cannot work with the sides not agreeing on a stimulus. Let the citizens decide what they feel safe doing, not a politician.
TexasAggie008
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"From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs"
TexasAggie008
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Oh i'm with you on all of that....but if I'm staying in character here I'd probably say something like:

just as our western counterparts have done since day 1 of covid, we must follow the science and place full faith in our medical and public health experts who, unlike us rubes, have spent years training for a moment such as this and have accumulated more degrees and accolades than we could imagine. theres no better place to prepare for real world health crises than in academic hallways and in echo chambers with other members of the public health establishment.

i mean, if you need open heart surgery, you find the best open heart surgeon out there and defer fully to them throughout the process - in this case its no different; all safe-learning/working guidance bestowed upon us from the public health community should be accepted just as willingly.
3rd Coast
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amercer said:

Lockdowns absolutely work. Look at China.

The questions have always been, can a free country actually do it, and are they worth it?

Other than an actual zombie apocalypse, I don't see how a Chinese level lockdown would ever be worth it in a free country. Piecemeal efforts, with only partial buy in from the public have expectedly poor results though.

Nobody won this year. But just maybe, the vaccine tech that's been developed, and our greater understanding of how pandemics spread mean that we'll never do this again.
No they do not. When you account for the repercussions from the lockdowns, in addition to the fact that a virus will do what a virus does, no they do not work. I would not believe anything coming our of China, so referencing them is probably not the best approach.
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