2 month immunity from Pfizer vaccine?

6,780 Views | 58 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by 3rd Generation Ag
bigtruckguy3500
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In reply to cone • 11:02p, 12/17/20
cone said:
the vacc arm of the Pfizer trial didn't look great when it came to Bell's palsy

we can say that in good faith, right?
Maybe, maybe not.

Question 1 - what is the normal expected number of people to get Bell's Palsy per 100k? - ~23
Question 2 - what rate per 100k in the vaccine arm got Bell's palsy? - ~13
Question 3 - what rate per 100k in the placebo arm got Bell's Palsy? - ~5
Question 4 - Does the 3/21k in the vaccine arm meet statistical significance for us to say that the vaccine definitely caused it? In other words, what is the likelihood that those 3 people got it purely by coincidence and were likely predisposed to getting it anyways?

Now what is interesting is that all the people that got Bells Palsy got it at various times, but all in under about 2 months. So if we extrapolate those numbers out to annuallize them, we get 78 and 30, respectively. So we're looking at the placebo arm potentially having higher rate of Bell's palsy than the population in general?

What if the same 3 people got Bell's palsy but the study was half the size? What if it was double the size? Just to be facetious here, what if 1 of the vaccine arm got struck by lightning? That would mean getting the vaccine increases your chance of getting struck by lighting by 25 compared with the average person's risk. Would that be dumb luck? Or would people be out there saying that it actually does have 5G antennas in it that are making you more conductive?

I'm not smart enough to do statistics really well, but I'm sure some smart Aggie math major can run the numbers and let us know. But the point is all the number have to be put in the correct context.
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4133
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11:17p, 12/17/20
I watched the PC and read the website. I don't think NC did / is doing anything wrong.

It is the terrible click bait journalism and incentive structure that encourages this sort of stuff that is wrong, imo.
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In reply to Not a Bot • 11:19p, 12/17/20
Cactus Jack said:
What she said was they know for sure it will last at least two months. It was a really dumb thing to say. The likelihood is that it will confer immunity for much, much longer than that.

People are now running with this idiotic misrepresentation of what she said and are claiming that the vaccine only lasts two months. Not what she said at all. But auntie Gertrude and cousin Karen are going to post this on Facebook and even more people will refuse to be vaccinated.

I swear to God our population is unbelievably dumb.
I sometimes wonder if A) if most Americans were always this dumb, and it just took the advent of social media to shine a light on it or B) if social media is the primary culprit.

Either way, sad state of affairs.
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bigtruckguy3500
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In reply to Not a Bot • 11:23p, 12/17/20
Cactus Jack said:

I swear to God our population is unbelievably dumb.
We're getting closer and closer

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cone
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In reply to bigtruckguy3500 • 12:03a, 12/18/20
AG
I think the proper context when it comes to the study is the incidence compared to the placebo arm full stop

I'm not concerned mainly because it's likely a temporary condition/side effect and the incidence across the vacc arm was like 1 in 5000.

but let's be clear eyed about what the phase 3 data illustrated given the study's design

and all this said, such a side effect is going to scare the gen pop ****less if they aren't briefed and made aware.

it's okay if this vaccine isn't immaculate in conception. level with people about what to potentially expect so you don't have to deal with a catastrophic loss of trust later.
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plain_o_llama
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In reply to Tabasco • 9:12a, 12/18/20
Tabasco said:
cone said:
the vacc arm of the Pfizer trial didn't look great when it came to Bell's palsy

we can say that in good faith, right?


What were the numbers on that?
One place I've seen the Bell's Palsy info:

Under non-serious adverse events in the briefing report to the FDA

https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download


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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to Not a Bot • 12:00p, 12/18/20
Cactus Jack said:
What she said was they know for sure it will last at least two months. It was a really dumb thing to say. The likelihood is that it will confer immunity for much, much longer than that.

People are now running with this idiotic misrepresentation of what she said and are claiming that the vaccine only lasts two months. Not what she said at all. But auntie Gertrude and cousin Karen are going to post this on Facebook and even more people will refuse to be vaccinated.

I swear to God our population is unbelievably dumb.

You would have thought the medical community would have learned their lesson after the "unsymptomatic/presymptomatic" spread cluster **** a few weeks ago. When they were clinically correct with what they said (asymptomatic doesn't seem to transmit but presymptomatic does) but 1000% wrong with what was heard (if you ain't coughin', you ain't killin').
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chilimuybueno
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1:13p, 12/18/20
AG
My wife received the vaccine yesterday. No side effects thus far other than slight soreness where she received the shot. So far, so good.
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Nosmo
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1:56p, 12/18/20
AG
Had a guy that worked for me in the 80's get Bell's palsy from the flu. I saw him (about 15 years ago), he still had it.

My doctor got a palsy, and had no idea from what. Was gone a year later when I saw him.

Pay your nickel and take your chances.
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DadHammer
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5:50a, 12/19/20
AG
I think most people will get the vaccine.

Why are you worried about who doesn't? Get it yourself and don't worry about what other people do.

You will be fine.
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tomtomdrumdrum
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In reply to DadHammer • 8:32a, 12/19/20
AG
Just theorycrafting here based on what I've read and my own logic: If enough people don't get vaccinated, the virus will be able to continue to spread slowly over time. Then, if there does end up being a finite longevity to the immune response of the vaccine (which will certainly be longer than the OP suggests, but still), there might come a time where we see a new wave of infections through people who were previously vaccinated because the virus was allowed to hang around.

The "just worry about yourself" attitude is, IMO, why we are where we are. Because people don't care about the effect of their actions on others, and some don't even care about themselves.
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Not a Bot
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8:55a, 12/19/20
AG
I got the vaccine yesterday morning. My arm kind of hurts. That's it. I'm not a flesh eating zombie.


Yet.
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cc_ag92
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In reply to tomtomdrumdrum • 9:00a, 12/19/20
AG
I believe that this is correct.

Consider the measles vaccine. Measles was pretty much eradicated until more parents stopped giving the vaccine.
"The recent outbreaks started through importation. Measles is imported when an unvaccinated traveler visits a country where there is widespread measles transmission, gets infected with measles, and returns to the United States and exposes people in a community who are not vaccinated. When measles is imported into a community with a highly vaccinated population, outbreaks either don't happen or are usually small. However, once measles is in an under-vaccinated community, it becomes difficult to control the spread of the disease."

CDC

When measles begins to spread amongst people who have never been vaccinated, it then spreads to people who were vaccinated long ago. So, if people stop being vaccinated as children, the nation's immunity to measles effectively wears off.

I'm inferring that the same thing applies to Covid-19. If not enough people are vaccinated, we won't effectively eliminate the opportunities for spread.
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cone
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9:57a, 12/19/20
AG
this thing is endemic

eradication is highly unlikely
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FrioAg 00
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10:02a, 12/19/20
AG
This is a business move

The end game is to show themselves as the most effective vaccine, and convince the world we need to be vaccinated every 60-90 days

When the dust settles this is going to be a big business
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cc_ag92
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In reply to cone • 10:35a, 12/19/20
AG
Can you clarify what you mean by that? I admit I wasn't certain what endemic means in relation to diseases. A quick look leads me to understand that an endemic disease is one that is always present in a geographic area.
With mitigation efforts, some diseases can transition from endemic to statistically eliminated.
However, as with the measles example, a disease can lose its eliminated status if mitigation efforts end.

I can't predict what is going to happen with CV-19. I doubt that it will be eliminated completely, but I think you and I will agree that we need to take steps to greatly decrease its impact on our healthcare system and population.

We've virtually (or completely) eliminated most of the diseases on this list because of science. Maybe CV-19 will be added to the list in ten years or even less.

And now.... It's time to forget about this stupid disease for a few hours. BTHO Tennessee!
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cone
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In reply to cc_ag92 • 10:41a, 12/19/20
AG
it's hyper contagious with pre symptomatic airborne spread

I don't see how you eliminate it

more likely is that our immune systems get used to it over time and it becomes generally how it's presented in mild cases - a cold of varying severity

Spanish flu is still circulating
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to Fido04 • 10:44a, 12/19/20
AG
Fido04 said:
The article states "Two months is how long the state of North Carolina says you're guaranteed protection against COVID-19 when you get the shot."

The video doesn't show an official saying that. They are referencing the North Carolina website that states:

"For how long will the vaccine protect me from COVID?

Since the Pfizer trial just ended, we know that it can protect people from COVID illness for at least two months. We'll know even more about how long the immunity from the vaccine lasts as people have been vaccinated for a longer period of time."

No one says it is expected to stop working after two months. Just more BS from people activity trying to misconstrue anything about the vaccine.


Can Texas get NCs allotment then?
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CowtownEng
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In reply to FrioAg 00 • 6:15p, 12/19/20
FrioAg 00 said:
This is a business move

The end game is to show themselves as the most effective vaccine, and convince the world we need to be vaccinated every 60-90 days

When the dust settles this is going to be a big business


Lolwut?
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FrioAg 00
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6:19p, 12/19/20
AG
Of they can show the vaccine to be very effective for 2 months, what do you think will happen?
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cone
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In reply to cc_ag92 • 7:37p, 12/19/20
AG
moreover, in light of today's news regarding a different strain in London, you have to expect these vaccines to lose effectiveness over time

I imagine they'll try to stay in front of this with yearly tweaks, but the drift away from the home run vaccine is inevitable
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CowtownEng
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In reply to cone • 10:47p, 12/19/20
cone said:
moreover, in light of today's news regarding a different strain in London, you have to expect these vaccines to lose effectiveness over time

I imagine they'll try to stay in front of this with yearly tweaks, but the drift away from the home run vaccine is inevitable


What exactly are your credentials?
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cone
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In reply to CowtownEng • 10:49p, 12/19/20
AG
just some dude on the internet
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CowtownEng
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In reply to cone • 10:53p, 12/19/20
cone said:
just some dude on the internet


Solid.
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3rd Generation Ag
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9:08a, 12/20/20
AG
One thing I realized yesterday. Those of us who are older really do no know or understand modern science if we have not worked on our own to learn.

High school biology in 1964 consisted of leaf collections, bug collections, cutting up a fish, drawing a plant cell from a microscope, photosyntheis, and a little pracitce with white and red carnations and this thing called genetics. I took chemistry for my science in college because it was more fun. But my sis in law is about my age and took college biology. Still pretty much the same thing..looking at things in a microscope and drawing them with neat labels in lab, and now cutting up a frog. There was some talk of genetic linked characteristics such as baldness. We heard mention of dna but that was about it. Knew more about bacterias than this thing called a virus.

My kids 7th grade science went beyond what we did in high school biology. Everyone was not a nerd (guilty) whose favorite Christmas give was a subscription to Scientific American and who read it from cover to cover. If I did not understand it, I read the article over and over till I did.

So it is easy to understand why so much of the over 60 population does not believe real science and are easily mislead by fake sciene such as this vacccine will alter your DNA. They don't understant DNA and RNA in the first place. So be patient and use it as a teachable moment..that is what we teachers do.
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