If already discussed somewhere, apologies.

Looking at charts, numbers began climbing late March / early April. Round one.

Second round started AFTER July 4th. Holiday blamed. No questions. (Side note, it started right after the 4th, not 6-8 weeks later)

Third round started climbing early October, really ramped up early November. There was speculation things would get bad AFTER Thanksgiving, but looks like it was well underway early / mid November.

Did it just take 6-8 weeks for the numbers to take off after schools opened? Just curious to understand the waves and what it is that ramps this thing up. We were headed the right direction August through October then the wheels really came off. All the while I'm guessing mask wearing was at an all time high.

Are you implying opening schools impacted the number? I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with that stance if that's your stance.

I've been curious about this too....why now? Why not before? And beyond vaccinating, which will take a while, what do we do about it? Granted I'm not personally reading up much on it just keeping my head down and my powder dry.

chet98 said:

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Are you implying opening schools impacted the number?

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Just trying to figure out why the tables turned late October / early November. There had been speculation all along that reopening schools would advance spread. But the time tables don't track like they did with July 4th.

One of the doctors here a few months ago said, and I am WAY paraphrasing here, something to the effect that a successful virus will learn to be less lethal and more contagious so it can perpetuate itself.

I think that's what these rising numbers the past couple of months have been...the virus mutating to be more contagious so that it can continue.

Again, this is just what I remember reading from one of the doctors here back this past summer I think. They basically predicted the virus, if it were to continue to be "successful", would have to mutate into a more contagious and less deadly form.

wcb said:

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chet98 said:

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Are you implying opening schools impacted the number?

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Just trying to figure out why the tables turned late October / early November. There had been speculation all along that reopening schools would advance spread. But the time tables don't track like they did with July 4th.

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I dont think reopening schools was the issue but instead was the comfort felt by many when there weren't so many issues or positive cases stemming from school reopening which then lead to less social distancing and more socialization during the fall. Part of it being less concern of the effects of covid (rightly or wrongly) along with covid fatigue. Also people willing to push their socializing indoors, either because of the weather or, even unconsciously, to hide from friends and neighbors, didnt help.

Tramp96 said:

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I think that's what these rising numbers the past couple of months have been...the virus mutating to be more contagious so that it can continue.

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Plausible theory. If true I'd be curious to know if < 12 months is a reasonable time to adapt / mutate.

Also seams there is no "season" for this virus like some others. Or maybe it does have a "season" that starts in the fall, just ahead of flu?

Yeah here in Austin the latest news is that school aged kids (Austin Public Health tested a whopping 2,500 kids last week. AISD enrollment is 75,000 to say nothing of private & charter school enrollment) have a slightly higher positive rate than the general public but they provide no causality or discussion that its kids in school in person or remote or what so not overly helpful.

Quote:

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I dont think reopening schools was the issue but instead was the comfort felt by many when there weren't so many issues or positive cases stemming from school reopening which then lead to less social distancing and more socialization during the fall.

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IE we let our guard down. Sounds about right for the crowds we run with. Places of business started opening back up after there were no mass September outbreaks from school reopening. I remember thinking early October "maybe we're through the worst of it". Then it began.

Blue star for you.

Tramp96 said:

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One of the doctors here a few months ago said, and I am WAY paraphrasing here, something to the effect that a successful virus will learn to be less lethal and more contagious so it can perpetuate itself.

I think that's what these rising numbers the past couple of months have been...the virus mutating to be more contagious so that it can continue.

Again, this is just what I remember reading from one of the doctors here back this past summer I think. They basically predicted the virus, if it were to continue to be "successful", would have to mutate into a more contagious and less deadly form.

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Very well could be. I also think more and more people stopped sheltering in place and have been out and doing more to a point now that people are more comfortable even with the threat of the virus. Covid fatigue. And it only takes one person in the household to go out and be out in close contact with others to make this happen. A lot of the spread is coming from people contracting within the household. Early on that was easier to monitor as less events, birthday parties, get togethers etc were happening. Now, there are plenty of parties and get togethers. Also, as mentioned, people were meeting more outdoors in the summer and early fall. Cold in certain parts of the country moved them inside. What is interesting is that states that are much more restricted and locked down are getting as big a spike as states that are mostly open. There are no easy answers here other than to just get vaccinated when you can.

amercer said:

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We've completely crushed all the ones that aren't Covid.

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If you accept that we've reduced the Rt of COVID from 2.5 down to 1.0-1.2 through behavior modification, social distancing, etc. then you can imagine that the Rt of the flu, whose R0 is typically lower than 2 is sustainably below 1.

Tramp96 said:

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One of the doctors here a few months ago said, and I am WAY paraphrasing here, something to the effect that a successful virus will learn to be less lethal and more contagious so it can perpetuate itself.

I think that's what these rising numbers the past couple of months have been...the virus mutating to be more contagious so that it can continue.

Again, this is just what I remember reading from one of the doctors here back this past summer I think. They basically predicted the virus, if it were to continue to be "successful", would have to mutate into a more contagious and less deadly form.

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While true, there is no indication that is has mutated to anything but more contagious. There's no science backing the current mutations are less deadly. Yes, that is what makes the virus "successful" but nothing showing it yet.

Good article about it from yesterday:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/12/covid-shutdowns-viruses/%3foutputType=amp