still going to wear masks in public places or are you done done?
Good News: Vaccinations beginning to surpass infections
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Last: 5 yr ago by gougler08
I will wear masks wherever I am asked to do so.
Where does that say that the vaccine is going to be defeated/escaped within a year? I didn't click the link, so I didn't know if it said something about that. But nothing in what was quoted even remotely supports what you said.
surely you realize the flu vaccine is a yearly booster.
cone said:
six fold reduction in neutralizing titers?
or did I read that wrong?
You did not but what you aren't posting is that the level of protection afforded is still more than enough AND they will easily produce a booster if it becomes necessary.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/health/coronavirus-moderna-vaccine-variant.html
Quote:
Dr. Zaks said that the new version of the Moderna vaccine, aimed at the South African variant, could be used if needed as a booster one year after people received the original vaccine.
The need for such a booster may be determined by blood tests to measure antibody levels or by watching the population of vaccinated people to see if they begin falling ill from the new variant
.
"We don't yet have data on the Brazilian variant," Dr. Zaks said. "Our expectation is that if anything it should be close to the South African one. That's the one with the most overlap." New forms of the virus will continue to emerge, he said, "and we'll continue to evaluate them."
Noting that Moderna took 42 days to produce the original vaccine, he said the company could make a new one "hopefully a little faster this time, but not much."One reason the current vaccine remains effective is a "cushion effect," meaning it provokes such a powerful immune response that it will remain highly protective even with some drop in antibody strength, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the government's leading expert on infectious diseases, and President Biden's adviser on the coronavirus, said at a news briefing on Friday.
Experts also cautioned against assuming that a decrease in neutralizing ability meant the vaccines were powerless against the new variants. Neutralizing antibodies are just one component of the body's immune defense, noted Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University.
"In real life, there's also T cells and memory B cells and non-neutralizing antibodies and all these other effectors that are going to be induced by the vaccine," Dr. Iwasaki said. Neutralizing power is "very important, but it's not the only thing that's going to protect someone."
it's not the production i'm concerned with mostly
it's the speed at which the variants are becoming the dominant strains
and how relatively slow the distribution of the vaccine is and has been
maybe JRB will get it fully ramped up, but he's only promising the current dosing pace of the current formulation over the next three months, which would only get us to less than 20% of gen pop
so i have no doubt boosters are going to be available. but on time, in arms? i have misgivings.
it's the speed at which the variants are becoming the dominant strains
and how relatively slow the distribution of the vaccine is and has been
maybe JRB will get it fully ramped up, but he's only promising the current dosing pace of the current formulation over the next three months, which would only get us to less than 20% of gen pop
so i have no doubt boosters are going to be available. but on time, in arms? i have misgivings.
cone,
The whole point of me starting this thread was to show how fast we are increasing production and delivery of the vaccine. Additionally, all of the scientific data we have from trials and actual implementation have shown the vaccine to be very successful. In Israel, of the 128,000 people who have gotten both shots, they only have 20 positive coronavirus cases and more than the 95% efficacy.
Of course we need to continue to be vigilant and the lower the level of coronavirus is in the world, the less chance it has to mutate. That's all that doctor is saying. However, so far these mutations have NOT escaped the vaccine, so stop saying it as if it was a fact.
I know you're nervous and you're dealing with that anxiety here, and I can sympathize with that. But, I also think it's important to stick to the facts and to listen closely to the experts:
1. The vaccine so far is effective against the new variants, even at reduced efficacy for the SA variant
2. They are already working on vaccine boosters against new variants, should they become the dominant strain and necessary. The current vaccine was created in 42 days and this one could be created even faster.
I assume you would be one of the first people in here on the Spring to say that we wouldn't have an approved vaccine before the end of 2020, because that was so unlikely given the previous history on vaccine rollouts, yet here we are with 2x approved vaccines with 95%+ efficacy given to over 15,000,000 people in the US. I think we can acknowledge the full range of outcomes without being so hyper focused on the worst outcomes.
The whole point of me starting this thread was to show how fast we are increasing production and delivery of the vaccine. Additionally, all of the scientific data we have from trials and actual implementation have shown the vaccine to be very successful. In Israel, of the 128,000 people who have gotten both shots, they only have 20 positive coronavirus cases and more than the 95% efficacy.
Of course we need to continue to be vigilant and the lower the level of coronavirus is in the world, the less chance it has to mutate. That's all that doctor is saying. However, so far these mutations have NOT escaped the vaccine, so stop saying it as if it was a fact.
I know you're nervous and you're dealing with that anxiety here, and I can sympathize with that. But, I also think it's important to stick to the facts and to listen closely to the experts:
1. The vaccine so far is effective against the new variants, even at reduced efficacy for the SA variant
2. They are already working on vaccine boosters against new variants, should they become the dominant strain and necessary. The current vaccine was created in 42 days and this one could be created even faster.
I assume you would be one of the first people in here on the Spring to say that we wouldn't have an approved vaccine before the end of 2020, because that was so unlikely given the previous history on vaccine rollouts, yet here we are with 2x approved vaccines with 95%+ efficacy given to over 15,000,000 people in the US. I think we can acknowledge the full range of outcomes without being so hyper focused on the worst outcomes.
i'll caveat this - we have no idea clinically. there hasn't been a trial.Quote:
1. The vaccine so far is effective against the new variants, even at reduced efficacy for the SA variant
but i certainly appreciate your optimism!
i'm not so much anxious as vigilant. if i learned anything in the last year, it's that a) it's as bad as the serology study out of NYC in April projected and b) you cannot happy talk nature.
i'm glad JRB installed the SA travel ban. anything and everything helps. can't let your guard down when we're over half way through.
What exactly does being vigilant accomplish? At this time there is no reason to think the vaccines are ineffective. Period.
Trying to stay vigilant helped me tremendously in 2020.
cone said:
Trying to stay vigilant helped me tremendously in 2020.
How so?
One day at a time.
You can do the worrying for both of us
One thing I've learned through this is that for some people this has forever changed them. And that perfect has become the enemy of good. There will never be a point where it's safe enough. And sad to see that "what ifs" and worst case scenarios are just next, not just a remote possibility.
To me, at some point you have to get busy living or get busy dying. Nothing in this life is 100% and that age old saying that fear and worry is way worse than the potential problem itself.
To me, at some point you have to get busy living or get busy dying. Nothing in this life is 100% and that age old saying that fear and worry is way worse than the potential problem itself.
I think I've learned a healthy respect for the short and long-term consequences of bilateral pneumonia.
cone said:
I think I've learned a healthy respect for the short and long-term consequences of bilateral pneumonia.
If I remember right you are fairly young and healthy right? If so, why such fear over this even if you did get it?
cuz I have family working the "frontline" and age doesn't seem to prevent 28 year olds from getting debilitating pneumonia and requiring at-home oxygen during a prolonged recovery. and I'm not 28.
maybe I'm too close to the acute cases (fair criticism) but it's enough to make me personally not want to catch it that's for sure
maybe I'm too close to the acute cases (fair criticism) but it's enough to make me personally not want to catch it that's for sure
cone said:
cuz I have family working the "frontline" and age doesn't seem to prevent 28 year olds from getting debilitating pneumonia and requiring at-home oxygen during a prolonged recovery. and I'm not 28.
maybe I'm too close to the acute cases (fair criticism) but it's enough to make me personally not want to catch it that's for sure
Maybe that is it, you see the absolute worst cases when in reality it's an incredibly small percentage and you'd have to be very unlucky to hit that lottery
I too don't want to get it and will wear masks when asked, etc. but I'm also going to live my life to the fullest I can
Some people tend to imagine the worst possible outcome instead of understanding the outcome currently expected or the most likely outcome.
I did say "possible", so there is a chance some horrible mutation occurs to make it more deadly or less preventable with current vaccine.
But what was shared in articles and experts on this thread did NOT say that has happened and therefore it is NOT fact. But, it is possible. Not expected, or most likely, but possible. If that's were you want your thoughts to dwell - in worst case but unlikely scenarios - that is your choice.
I did say "possible", so there is a chance some horrible mutation occurs to make it more deadly or less preventable with current vaccine.
But what was shared in articles and experts on this thread did NOT say that has happened and therefore it is NOT fact. But, it is possible. Not expected, or most likely, but possible. If that's were you want your thoughts to dwell - in worst case but unlikely scenarios - that is your choice.
A certain poster here is dealing out the worst case scenario here and on the Aggieland forum as fact. It displays a crazy amount of medical ignorance and a completely irresponsible level of fear mongering. It's sick. It's sad when only the "experts" that fit your world view are in the right. Everyone else is a "denier". It's also really cute to follow up blanket insults with calls for unity. This was a forum that dealt as much as possible in real data and black and white. People like B&R have made this forum no different than the politics forum with all their "what if's" based on information taken from politically charged news outlets.The Big12Ag said:
Some people tend to imagine the worst possible outcome instead of understanding the outcome currently expected or the most likely outcome.
I did say "possible", so there is a chance some horrible mutation occurs to make it more deadly or less preventable with current vaccine.
But what was shared in articles and experts on this thread did NOT say that has happened and therefore it is NOT fact. But, it is possible. Not expected, or most likely, but possible. If that's were you want your thoughts to dwell - in worst case but unlikely scenarios - that is your choice.
cone said:
cuz I have family working the "frontline" and age doesn't seem to prevent 28 year olds from getting debilitating pneumonia and requiring at-home oxygen during a prolonged recovery. and I'm not 28.
maybe I'm too close to the acute cases (fair criticism) but it's enough to make me personally not want to catch it that's for sure
You're too close to the very rare acute cases.
One day at a time.
That's not really how evolution works. Selection can only act on existing genetic variability, and thus environmental stress doesn't make it any more likely that a beneficial variant relative to that stressor exists or will arise in a given population. It only makes it more likely that such a variant would be selected for if it already was present.cone said:
some things to keep in mind:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/uk-variant-covid-denmark/2021/01/22/ddfaf420-5453-11eb-acc5-92d2819a1ccb_story.html
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Technically, dinosaurs were already birds based on our definition of the term and birds today are the last living dinosaurs.amercer said:FratboyLegend said:That's not the way evolution works.cone said:
"After meteor strike, dinosaurs feel immense pressure to evolve"
What a ridiculous thing to say.
I mean, that is how we got birds, but it's leaving a lot of nuance on the table....
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Thanks for saying with sophistication what I was trying to convey as a layperson.Infection_Ag11 said:That's not really how evolution works. Selection can only act on existing genetic variability, and thus environmental stress doesn't make it any more likely that a beneficial variant relative to that stressor exists or will arise in a given population. It only makes it more likely that such a variant would be selected for if it already was present.cone said:
some things to keep in mind:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/uk-variant-covid-denmark/2021/01/22/ddfaf420-5453-11eb-acc5-92d2819a1ccb_story.html
#CertifiedSIP
aginlakeway said:cone said:
cuz I have family working the "frontline" and age doesn't seem to prevent 28 year olds from getting debilitating pneumonia and requiring at-home oxygen during a prolonged recovery. and I'm not 28.
maybe I'm too close to the acute cases (fair criticism) but it's enough to make me personally not want to catch it that's for sure
You're too close to the very rare acute cases.
I second this. I lost my mom to cancer when I was 5. I am a long time pediatric ICU RN. I have seen the worst of so many things and lived through it as well. You have to make the choice to not live in fear and not get bogged down in the what if's. Do what you can for your own safety, within reason, and move on with life.
Here is a detailed discussion of the impact of the vaccines on the UK and SA variants by a virologist. Bottom line - the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are expected to see little impact (as is Novavax) and should handle the current variants. Other vaccines with lower neutralizing titers might have more problems.
Can we just get back to the graphs that have some promising info around vaccines and cases?
https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/28/novavax-says-its-covid-19-vaccine-is-90-effective-but-far-less-so-against-one-variant/
Novavax 60% effective in non-AIDS portion of South African trial
Novavax 60% effective in non-AIDS portion of South African trial
still need info on severe cases out of SA in vax arm
We're encouraged by how many people who first said they wouldn't take a vaccine, have now decided to do it.
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