Someone explain the J&J efficacy results to me.

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SBISA Victim
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7:52a, 1/31/21
AG
According to my understanding. The vaccine is overall 66% effective at preventing infection. 57% effective at preventing infection from the South Africa variant and 85% effective at preventing severe disease which are defined by hospitalization and death. But then they mention those numbers saying it is overall 72% effective at preventing moderate to severe disease which makes it sound like it's not effective at all on preventing people from getting sick

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html
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Aust Ag
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8:12a, 1/31/21
AG
https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3179580
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KlinkerAg11
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8:15a, 1/31/21
AG
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czechy91
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8:20a, 1/31/21
AG
Per the article "Across all geographies, across all variants, we see 85% protection" against severe disease, he said. That trend increased over time, with no severe cases in the vaccinated group after day 49, according to the company.

From one month after the shot, all hospitalizations and deaths occurred in the placebo group."

To me it sounds like you might still get COVID and have mild to moderate symptoms, but won't end up in the morgue. That last bit of info is what most people are aiming for.
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HotardAg07
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8:53a, 1/31/21
AG
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txaggie79
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In reply to SBISA Victim • 9:05a, 1/31/21
AG
"But then they mention those numbers saying it is overall 72% effective at preventing moderate to severe disease which makes it sound like it's not effective at all on preventing people from getting sick"

I'm not understanding how you reach the conclusion "not effective at all" in preventing illness.
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notex
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9:34a, 1/31/21
AG
It's not as good as the other two, basically.
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HotardAg07
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In reply to notex • 10:03a, 1/31/21
AG
notex said:
It's not as good as the other two, basically.
with a single dose, it is more effective. And it is easier to transport and store.
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KlinkerAg11
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10:19a, 1/31/21
AG
It's really good at eliminating severe covid.

Big win for the hospital system.
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culdeus
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10:27a, 1/31/21
AG
If you are under 65 and healthy, get it, and move on.
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MarylandAG
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10:28a, 1/31/21
https://www.npr.org/2021/01/29/962190210/a-look-at-the-latest-data-on-johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine

Not sure how to link url on my iphone but the link is to an interview with J&J chief scientist on NPR

66% effective overall, 85% effective against disease, 100% effective against hospitalization and death. So....

1. If you take it you have a 66% chance of not getting sick at all
2. If you do get it there is an 85% chance it will be mild
3. 100% chance you aren't going to have to go the hospital
4. 100% chance you aren't going to die

All that with one dose that can be stored in normal condition like other vaccines. All things considered that is a win and in no way can that be read as "not effective". I only hope that FDA give approval quickly and gets this out there! Like the chief scientist alluded to in the interview there is a place for all 3 vaccines and get the one you can. If this is the one available to me, I will gladly take it!!!
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Dad
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10:41a, 1/31/21
AG
The only stats that matter to me are hospitalizations and deaths. It sounds like this shot turns Covid into a cold if you end up getting it anyway.
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amercer
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In reply to notex • 11:25a, 1/31/21
AG
notex said:
It's not as good as the other two, basically.


The other two weren't tested against the SA variant, so who knows?

It is completely possible that in a head to head clinical trial, J&J would win.
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notex
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In reply to amercer • 11:29a, 1/31/21
AG
amercer said:
notex said:
It's not as good as the other two, basically.


The other two weren't tested against the SA variant, so who knows?

It is completely possible that in a head to head clinical trial, J&J would win.
Not really. It's very very unlikely, actually.

It's good to have as an option for kids/people unlikely to be significantly impacted/at risk from the China virus. Ideally that's how it would be distributed/handled.
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amercer
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In reply to notex • 11:32a, 1/31/21
AG
notex said:
amercer said:
notex said:
It's not as good as the other two, basically.


The other two weren't tested against the SA variant, so who knows?

It is completely possible that in a head to head clinical trial, J&J would win.
Not really. It's very very unlikely, actually.


Based on what? Your feelings? Some random crap you saw on Facebook? Your expert knowledge of virology, immunology, or vaccine development?

We do clinical trials because we don't know what would happen.
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notex
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In reply to amercer • 11:46a, 1/31/21
AG
amercer said:
notex said:
amercer said:
notex said:
It's not as good as the other two, basically.


The other two weren't tested against the SA variant, so who knows?

It is completely possible that in a head to head clinical trial, J&J would win.
Not really. It's very very unlikely, actually.


Based on what? Your feelings? Some random crap you saw on Facebook? Your expert knowledge of virology, immunology, or vaccine development?

We do clinical trials because we don't know what would happen.
You're the one positing theoretical future studies based on a largely similar virus. I'm not emotional about this but it's an absurdity in my mind to think more studies will show the J/J vaccine wins in some other theoretical study (based on a mutation). Maybe a future study will also show that the J&J vaccine also affords HIV and MMR immunity. Maybe, but not likely, LOL.

They submitted the phase 1, 2, and 3 data, after paying for the studies needed, and it's not as good. They designed the studies, and again, as an interested party had a reason to deliberately design them to perform as well as possible in the final analyses/statistics.

No internet experts are going to convince me this is just a case of "well it might be better."
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MarylandAG
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12:07p, 1/31/21
All politics and personal feelings aside, I think this vaccine has a good chance of becoming the workhorse. Someone hit the nail on head in a post above keeps you from getting severely ill and more important from ending up in a coffin coupled with how easily it can be handled and stored. Also, logistically it is much easier to schedule people knowing you only need to get them to a vaccination center one time.
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to MarylandAG • 12:26p, 1/31/21
AG
MarylandAG said:
All politics and personal feelings aside, I think this vaccine has a good chance of becoming the workhorse. Someone hit the nail on head in a post above keeps you from getting severely ill and more important from ending up in a coffin coupled with how easily it can be handled and stored. Also, logistically it is much easier to schedule people knowing you only need to get them to a vaccination center one time.


And it's a familiar vaccine process so production can be ratcheted up much quicker.

Like I said in another thread, if the other vaccines hadn't come out this one would be lauded as a biomedical marvel.
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fightingfarmer09
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 12:32p, 1/31/21
HotardAg07 said:
notex said:
It's not as good as the other two, basically.
with a single dose, it is more effective. And it is easier to transport and store.


And sounds like WAY less side effects.
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KlinkerAg11
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12:41p, 1/31/21
AG
It doesn't need a complicated cold chain to distribute.

It's one shot, and you don't die from covid if you take the shot.

It's also showing to be more effective the longer time goes on.

This is the vaccine that ends the pandemic.

This is all great news, I plan on taking this vaccine considering where I fall in the risk category.
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notex
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In reply to KlinkerAg11 • 1:56p, 1/31/21
AG
It will also be used as an excuse to keep masks/lockdowns going on ad infinitum.
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KlinkerAg11
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In reply to notex • 2:09p, 1/31/21
AG
I disagree.

Once people have had their shot and death drops people will just stop wearing them.
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CowtownEng
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In reply to notex • 4:13p, 1/31/21
notex said:
It will also be used as an excuse to keep masks/lockdowns going on ad infinitum.


There is a 0% chance that this occurs.
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notex
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In reply to KlinkerAg11 • 4:55p, 1/31/21
AG
KlinkerAg11 said:
I disagree.

Once people have had their shot and death drops people will just stop wearing them.
That's not what Robert Redfield said this morning on Chris Wallace' show. In fact, it's the opposite, and I don't think that's an accident.
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notex
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In reply to CowtownEng • 4:58p, 1/31/21
AG
CowtownEng said:
notex said:
It will also be used as an excuse to keep masks/lockdowns going on ad infinitum.


There is a 0% chance that this occurs.
There will be a future surge, in the northern hemisphere, as there is every year for ILI viruses.

Somewhat non-political angle;

https://reason.com/2020/12/04/epidemiologists-masks-social-distancing-vaccine-forever-new-york-times/
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KlinkerAg11
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In reply to notex • 4:58p, 1/31/21
AG
I don't doubt that people up top want us to wear masks forever.

They would also love if we didn't smoke or drink, but guess what a lot of people still do.

It's just natural human behavior, once the threat is gone, which it will be eventually, people will just get lazy with masks.
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CowtownEng
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In reply to notex • 6:01p, 1/31/21
notex said:
CowtownEng said:
notex said:
It will also be used as an excuse to keep masks/lockdowns going on ad infinitum.


There is a 0% chance that this occurs.
There will be a future surge, in the northern hemisphere, as there is every year for ILI viruses.

Somewhat non-political angle;

https://reason.com/2020/12/04/epidemiologists-masks-social-distancing-vaccine-forever-new-york-times/


Even if SARS-COV2 becomes endemic, the actual impact to society should be negligible due vaccine availability and previous infections. There may be a handful of public health figures that promote permanent masking and social distancing, but the overwhelming percent of the population will give exactly 0 ****s.

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KidDoc
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6:09p, 1/31/21
AG
Moderna does not need super cold storage, it is very similar to most other vaccines really. And it, at this time, seems to be more effective.

I will always opt for the more effective vaccine.

Also people continue to equate COVID to flu as far as vaccine goes. Flu is the worst vaccine we have, the rest of the viruses we vaccinate for are now rarely seen because the vaccines actually work.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Aggie95
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In reply to KidDoc • 6:51p, 1/31/21
AG
in short/layman's terms...why do you think it is that the Flu vaccine is not super effective?
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
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setsmachine
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 7:01p, 1/31/21
AG
HotardAg07 said:

I realize that with the other vaccines it takes a week or two for your body to mount the response and thus for them to become effective, but is this normal for a vaccine to become more and more effective over this much time? Its greatest protection is not reached for almost two months? Just find that really interesting.
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HotardAg07
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In reply to setsmachine • 7:38p, 1/31/21
AG
Normal to go up over time.



Note: the subject of this post is about the Pfizer vaccine.
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to KidDoc • 8:14p, 1/31/21
AG
Obviously I'd take the more effective vaccine but as someone waaaaay down the totem pole I'm not sure the Moderna is the one I'll end up with. And I'm fine with J&J if that's the case.
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HotardAg07
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9:37p, 1/31/21
AG
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Infection_Ag11
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In reply to notex • 10:07p, 1/31/21
AG
notex said:
It's not as good as the other two, basically.


It's superior after one dose, and perhaps more importantly is much easier to ship and store. This is a big deal for many parts of the world.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Teslag
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3:34a, 2/1/21
AG
After reading that article I've determined that many epidemiologists are the most pathetic and sad people on the planet. I'm surprised they don't urinate themselves in fear when they walk out the front door.
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