Super-spreaders & Asymptomatic Spreading

tmaggie50

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2:59p, 2/3/21

AG

After the announcement that they will shut down the Houston Rodeo again this year, I am curious. Is there any true evidence that "super-spreader" events exist? We've seen massive protests, states like Florida open up entirely, and other major events... but I have not seen data, other than general fear statements on TV, that there are obvious examples of an event being a super-spreader.

Along those same lines - Is the general consensus that you can still spread the virus while being Asymptomatic? I thought I was reading that most people thought you could not pass it while asymptomatic or at least the risk of spreading was greatly reduced.

Honest questions, so appreciate the responses!

NASAg03

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4:53p, 2/3/21

Very low likelihood of asymptomatic spread. The issue is distinguishing between asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic, and the fact that many different ailments look similar to covid-19 at first. .

I think the rodeo should go on considering how many people have had covid, and the fact that the most at-risk will be vaccinated by rodeo time. Spread will be minimal. Hospital capacity is increasing. And certain aspects of the rodeo can be limited to prevent mass spread events.

You don't have to cancel the entire thing just because of super-spreader events. That's what I don't understand.

And NRG can be opened up to increase airflow.

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Aggie95

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5:42p, 2/3/21

AG

I think the holiday spikes proved that those gatherings of 10-20 people were more "super spreader" than one massive event.

Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.

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HotardAg07

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8:20p, 2/3/21

AG

Yes, super spreader events have had a significant impact on the spread of covid. Weddings, funerals, parties, etc. have been a big source of the spread and obviously once those people are infected they bring it home and the spread continues.
https://news.mit.edu/2020/super-spreading-covid-transmission-1102

Someone earlier said asymptomatic spread chance is low -- that's not completely correct. The chances are low that someone who never has symptoms spreads it, however, a majority of people who get covid get it from someone who was asymptomatic AT THE TIME. There is also a lot of nuance in what asymptomatic even means. There's asymptomatic (never have symptoms), presymptomatic (before symptoms show up), paucisymptomatic (minor symptoms), etc.

The fertile conditions for spread are sustained, indoor, close contact without masks while people are yelling/talking loudly/etc.

That being said, outdoor transmission is 20-30 times less likely than indoor transmission. Incidental and contact transmission is much less contact than sustained. It seems there were things that the rodeo could have done to safely pull it off (limiting people, maximizing things outdoors, mask requirements, etc). I don't know exactly what into that situation.

But please understand that yes -- being in a crowded indoor place for a long time with people talking without masks has a very high risk if someone unknowingly has COVID.

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DadHammer

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In reply to HotardAg07 • 10:15p, 2/3/21

AG

Curious, why wouldn't they have masks on if that allows the rodeo to take place.

TexasAggie008

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In reply to DadHammer • 11:41p, 2/3/21

AG

Even if you are vaccinated and double-masked - its STILL just too dangerous according to the "experts"

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NoHo Hank

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In reply to NASAg03 • 8:28a, 2/4/21

AG

NASAg03 said:
Very low likelihood of asymptomatic spread. The issue is distinguishing between asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic, and the fact that many different ailments look similar to covid-19 at first. .

I think the rodeo should go on considering how many people have had covid, and the fact that the most at-risk will be vaccinated by rodeo time. Spread will be minimal. Hospital capacity is increasing. And certain aspects of the rodeo can be limited to prevent mass spread events.

You don't have to cancel the entire thing just because of super-spreader events. That's what I don't understand.

And NRG can be opened up to increase airflow.

So in the case of vaccination, the CDC's official position seems to be that the vaccine dramatically increases the case of asymptomatic infection. Since there are zero studies that show asymptomatic spread, why would vaccinated people need to continue wearing masks?