Keegan- based on all your homework do you believe this widespread vaccination will
create the "herd immunity" effect this year??

Rubble said:

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Keegan, I don't know what you do for a living, but you're a breath of fresh air to me with facts. Thank you for what you have brought to this board for the last year!!

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Totally agree. Your posts are well thought out, informed, and rational. And you provide good links and sources for your POV. We need more posters like you.

What do you do for a living, if you don't mind me asking.

Long post, but mathematically, herd immunity seems inevitable in short order unless the vaccine just doesn't prove to be effective like it is in the trials(would seem nearly impossible) and/or the variants somehow mutate more in the next 2 months than any coronavirus in history, and more so than it did in the first 15 months combined. Or if the vaccinations slow down so much so that we can't get more than 30% of the population, even though we are already looking like we are at 16+%.

All are so unlikely they aren't worth worrying about right now, I just don't see how we don't get there, and get there soon. This is just my rough estimate based on Youyang Gu and a few others:

1) Currently, you have anywhere from 20-35% of the population having been infected, with 25-30% the more likely narrowed down number. Likely 95-99% of which have some strong immune response to the disease. There will always be a few re-infections, but the vast majority are minor, and it's very, very rare for a person to end up in the hospital twice. This means the number falls somewhere between 80 and 115 million having a strong immune response to it through infection.

2) You now have 53 million single dosages, and 27 million double dosages of the vaccine. While 26 million of these aren't double dosed yet, they are still 92% effective for the time being so long as they eventually get the 2nd. This means that 27 million, plus 92% of 26 million, should have at least 50 million more with a strong degree of immunity. 130-165 million on the aggregate count.

3) Lets be conservative, and cut the current number in half, and say 1 million vaccinated each day for the next 90 days. 3 months. I think we can beat this, but going conservative. That's 90 million more vaccinations. 220-255 on the aggregate count before accounting for overlap. But my guess is, we can get closer to 1.5 to 2 million, instead of 1 million. So this is a very, very conservative estimate.

4) A certain portion of the population, especially children, that just don't seem to be high infection rates, transmitters, etc. This the the portion that won't have the vaccine at the highest levels, but it's also the portion that matters the least.

5) On the inverse of that, a good percentage of the population getting the vaccine are the higher risk, meaning even less than true herd immunity numbers should allow out hospitals to stay okay regardless. Those that do get covid now, and in the next 60-90 days, are going to be skewed towards the younger and healthier, therefore less likely to end up in the hospital

6) It will be a while before a good portion of the population lives as normal again IMHO. Meaning masks, social distancing, staying home as much as they can. I could see quite a few still doing this even with the vaccines and/or numbers plummeting from covid. At least for a few months just to see how things go.

So in the end, there will be some overlap, and you can't just add all numbers together, but even the most conservative estimates, you can see how in at most 90 days, we should be mathematically at, or damn close to, herd immunity. My most conservative estimate, including overlap, vaccine rollouts slowing down, shows about 55% by the end of May. But even that means about 85% of the vulnerable population, so the young and healthy might still spread it a little. But nothing outrageous. Especially when you factor in number 6, in that many are still going to take their time before going back to 100% normality.

In theory, there really isn't much reason even for the biggest proponents of masking/social distancing to not let others live 100% the way they want within the next 3 months.

That's great news.

I'd like to know what percentage over 65 have been vaccinated? That has to be playing a major role in this graph, right? I see people saying texas shouldn't open because we are way behind on vaccinations. Only 13% single dosed and 7% double.

But if 75-80% of elderly are vaccinated, then I think that makes the 13% number a little less important.

PJYoung said:

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beerad12man said:

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That's great news.

I'd like to know what percentage over 65 have been vaccinated? That has to be playing a major role in this graph, right? I see people saying texas shouldn't open because we are way behind on vaccinations. Only 13% single dosed and 7% double.

But if 75-80% of elderly are vaccinated, then I think that makes the 13% number a little less important.

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From February 21

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And there it is. And this was 2 weeks ago. I'm sure texas is right there with them, or at least not far behind. Considering that was two weeks ago, I'm betting the number is over 75% for 75+, and 60% for 65+ now. Again this is really the biggest thing that matters when it comes to deaths/hospitalizations. Cases my still linger in the younger crowd, but nothing to overwhelm hospitals or anything.

I remember. Some forgot. This was 15 days to flatten the curve. now, it's preventing every last case, some areas requiring 70% vaccinations, etc. What's going to happen is the numbers are going to start dwindling to nothing very soon IMHO. They already seem to declining pretty quick in many cases, but I'm talking 45-60 days really flattening to nothing.

Texas numbers as of today (Per Texas Dept. of State Health Services)

Texas COVID-19 Vaccine Progress Update:
2M+ Texans fully vaccinated
6M+ doses administered
46%+ of people 65+ with one dose
25%+ of people 65+ fully vaccinated
1 in 6 adult Texans with one dose

beerad12man said:

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PJYoung said:

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beerad12man said:

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That's great news.

I'd like to know what percentage over 65 have been vaccinated? That has to be playing a major role in this graph, right? I see people saying texas shouldn't open because we are way behind on vaccinations. Only 13% single dosed and 7% double.

But if 75-80% of elderly are vaccinated, then I think that makes the 13% number a little less important.

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From February 21

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And there it is. And this was 2 weeks ago. I'm sure texas is right there with them, or at least not far behind. Considering that was two weeks ago, I'm betting the number is over 75% for 75+, and 60% for 65+ now. Again this is really the biggest thing that matters when it comes to deaths/hospitalizations. Cases my still linger in the younger crowd, but nothing to overwhelm hospitals or anything.

I remember. Some forgot. This was 15 days to flatten the curve. now, it's preventing every last case, some areas requiring 70% vaccinations, etc. What's going to happen is the numbers are going to start dwindling to nothing very soon IMHO. They already seem to declining pretty quick in many cases, but I'm talking 45-60 days really flattening to nothing.

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I don't know if you've noticed Brazil but their cases and deaths are surging right now due to one of the new variants and the fact that they lagged in vaccinations. I am guessing you will see the US media start to bang that drum soon if they haven't already.

Texas opening up 100% (and I suspect) continuing to see cases and hospitalizations plummet will be a great test for this new concern.

Aston94 said:

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Texas numbers as of today (Per Texas Dept. of State Health Services)

Texas COVID-19 Vaccine Progress Update:
2M+ Texans fully vaccinated
6M+ doses administered
46%+ of people 65+ with one dose
25%+ of people 65+ fully vaccinated
1 in 6 adult Texans with one dose

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Yeah we have been in the bottom 7 or so right behind Arkansas in % of populace vaccinated but much of that has to do with the February winter storm.

PJYoung said:

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beerad12man said:

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PJYoung said:

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beerad12man said:

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That's great news.

I'd like to know what percentage over 65 have been vaccinated? That has to be playing a major role in this graph, right? I see people saying texas shouldn't open because we are way behind on vaccinations. Only 13% single dosed and 7% double.

But if 75-80% of elderly are vaccinated, then I think that makes the 13% number a little less important.

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From February 21

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And there it is. And this was 2 weeks ago. I'm sure texas is right there with them, or at least not far behind. Considering that was two weeks ago, I'm betting the number is over 75% for 75+, and 60% for 65+ now. Again this is really the biggest thing that matters when it comes to deaths/hospitalizations. Cases my still linger in the younger crowd, but nothing to overwhelm hospitals or anything.

I remember. Some forgot. This was 15 days to flatten the curve. now, it's preventing every last case, some areas requiring 70% vaccinations, etc. What's going to happen is the numbers are going to start dwindling to nothing very soon IMHO. They already seem to declining pretty quick in many cases, but I'm talking 45-60 days really flattening to nothing.

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I don't know if you've noticed Brazil but their cases and deaths are surging right now due to one of the new variants and the fact that they lagged in vaccinations. I am guessing you will see the US media start to bang that drum soon if they haven't already.

Texas opening up 100% (and I suspect) continuing to see cases and hospitalizations plummet will be a great test for this new concern.

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Completely agree. We went ALL IN on the vaccine and I imagine the media will be shouting this from the rooftops when we're out of this ahead of everyone else, if not before that.

It seems odd that the focus seems to be on the number of vaccines administered per day rather than total vaccines when the total number of cases was the major news for a long time before shifting to new cases per day.