Cases rising - Click bait or legitimate concern?

7,681 Views | 53 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by 74Ag1
Goodbull_19
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2:46p, 3/29/21
AG
https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-director-covid-induced-impending-doom-rise-cases-hospitalizations
Quote:
"Now is one of those times when I have to share the truth and I have to hope and trust you will listen," Walensky continued. "I'm going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom. We have so much to look forward to, so much promise and potential of where we are, and so much reason for hope, but right now, I'm scared please hold on a little while longer."
Is there anything to this? I feel like we could expect to see a modest rise in cases, for a time, as people start to move around more... but I have trouble seeing how we could have another huge spike despite all the immunity both natural and from vaccinations.

Thoughts?
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Aggie95
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2:54p, 3/29/21
AG
Rising case numbers is a meaningless statistic without a couple more notes:

1) how are hospitalization stats looking
2) what is the age demographic making up the rise in cases

I suspect a large percentage of these new cases are and will be 10-20 year olds that really don't have a vaccine right now. They are also likely to do more than okay if infected anyway.
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
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BowSowy
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3:01p, 3/29/21
AG
They talk about a spike in Europe, but fail to mention how Europe is far behind us in number of vaccinations. I believe we're about 3X ahead of Europe, per capita.
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Bonfired
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3:26p, 3/29/21
AG
"I'm going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom."

Fantastic...be scared all you want in the privacy of your own home.

Try to be somewhat objective with what you share with the public, m'kay?

Oh, who am I kidding...
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Bruce Almighty
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3:47p, 3/29/21
AG
There was always going to be another rise as restrictions eased and people got out again. The impending doom line is ridiculous. Cases will never rise to what they were in December.
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jamey
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3:56p, 3/29/21
AG
It goes up and down with the loosening and tightening of restrictions


So it's expected. At some point the vaccine should really start to
blunt the increase and drive it down
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amercer
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4:19p, 3/29/21
AG
Cases are bad because they lead to hospitalization which leads to death.

BUT, with the over 65s being vaccinated that correlation should be broken. I know that the rare young person can die, but for 99% of young people it's a cold at worst
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aTm2004
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In reply to amercer • 4:30p, 3/29/21
AG
nm
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beerad12man
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4:32p, 3/29/21
AG
Cases have gone up in a few states. Oddly enough, none of which are the ones that loosened their restrictions. The states that loosened their restrictions are still trending down. Judging by the maps, this has far more to do with seasonality than anything else. Short of wuhan style lockdowns, seasonality and immunity are going to play a far bigger role than any other mitigation we can do. Graphs continue to show this.

Also, I read an article that the biggest uptick was in the 10-19 age range, which is virtually nothing more than a cold for that age group. The 65+ crowd do not seem to be going up in cases, therefore the hospitals and deaths should not follow. It will be a lot less than if we had 70k cases and the majority were in the elderly crowd.

As long as the elderly keep getting vaccinated at the rates they are, deaths/hospitalizations will likely correlate far less to the case rate than in the past.
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2wealfth Man
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4:48p, 3/29/21
AG
CDC Director was literally crying and guilt tripping folks in her "news" conference today. Totally unprofessional.
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tysker
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In reply to beerad12man • 5:06p, 3/29/21
AG
beerad12man said:
Also, I read an article that the biggest uptick was in the 10-19 age range, which is virtually nothing more than a cold for that age group.
Why are kids in this age even being tested? What are the symptoms that are triggering the decision to test for covid?
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aTm2004
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In reply to tysker • 5:14p, 3/29/21
AG
tysker said:
beerad12man said:
Also, I read an article that the biggest uptick was in the 10-19 age range, which is virtually nothing more than a cold for that age group.
Why are kids in this age even being tested? What are the symptoms that are triggering the decision to test for covid?
Because we need to keep the case counts up. Best way to do it is for universities to mandate all students get tested.
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GAC06
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In reply to jamey • 5:36p, 3/29/21
AG
jamey said:
It goes up and down with the loosening and tightening of restrictions


So it's expected. At some point the vaccine should really start to
blunt the increase and drive it down


Are cases going up where restrictions have loosened? Are they holding steady or declining where restrictions are still in place?

Or has it always been seasonal and largely unaffected by interventions?

Fortunately it's moot soon. The vaccines are highly effective after just one dose and about a third of Americans have had at least one dose. Vaccinating millions per day, throw in the 100 million plus who have already had it, and children... this is over soon.
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J. Walter Weatherman
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In reply to jamey • 5:40p, 3/29/21
jamey said:
It goes up and down with the loosening and tightening of restrictions


So it's expected. At some point the vaccine should really start to
blunt the increase and drive it down


Fyi - this is factually incorrect.
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jamey
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In reply to GAC06 • 6:08p, 3/29/21
AG
GAC06 said:
jamey said:
It goes up and down with the loosening and tightening of restrictions


So it's expected. At some point the vaccine should really start to
blunt the increase and drive it down


Are cases going up where restrictions have loosened? Are they holding steady or declining where restrictions are still in place?

Or has it always been seasonal and largely unaffected by interventions?

Fortunately it's moot soon. The vaccines are highly effective after just one dose and about a third of Americans have had at least one dose. Vaccinating millions per day, throw in the 100 million plus who have already had it, and children... this is over soon.


You're going to have differences by region for all kinds of reasons from to weather, population density, how fast the vaccine is distributed..etc

Even this winter interventions were able to drive it back down on a national scale though the weather made it a little worse up north and for whatever reason thats when it started getting into the midwest
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GAC06
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In reply to jamey • 6:15p, 3/29/21
AG
There is the same evidence that interventions beat it back as there is that my lucky rock was responsible for the inevitable decline after a spike.
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Aust Ag
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 6:57p, 3/29/21
AG
2wealfth Man said:
CDC Director was literally crying and guilt tripping folks in her "news" conference today. Totally unprofessional.
What!??! I had this on the TV at lunch (with sound off), anyone have video? No way!
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BigOil
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7:43p, 3/29/21
AG
It all comes down to risk management and trade-off decisions. Let people back in charge of their own lives and stop this blanket zero risk mandate on the world.

People with little to no appetite for risk can continue to work from home and get curbside or delivery services.

Enough is enough.
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Old Buffalo
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In reply to BigOil • 9:24p, 3/29/21
AG
BigOil said:
People with little to no appetite for risk can continue to work from home and get curbside or delivery services.


How inconsiderate! People with existing risk factors should just stay at home forever? That's not fair. If they have to stay at home, you need to stay home too until we get to Zero Covid. If we just would have all shut down for 18 weeks in April 2020, then we would have eradicated this entire thing!

(Geez. That's sarcasm but it hurt my brain trying to argue that point.)

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2wealfth Man
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In reply to Aust Ag • 7:58a, 3/30/21
AG
Aust Ag said:
2wealfth Man said:
CDC Director was literally crying and guilt tripping folks in her "news" conference today. Totally unprofessional.
What!??! I had this on the TV at lunch (with sound off), anyone have video? No way!
https://www.nbcnews.com/video/cdc-director-walensky-urges-americans-to-continue-to-follow-covid-guidelines-109276742001
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Aust Ag
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 8:29a, 3/30/21
AG
2wealfth Man said:
Aust Ag said:
2wealfth Man said:
CDC Director was literally crying and guilt tripping folks in her "news" conference today. Totally unprofessional.
What!??! I had this on the TV at lunch (with sound off), anyone have video? No way!
https://www.nbcnews.com/video/cdc-director-walensky-urges-americans-to-continue-to-follow-covid-guidelines-109276742001
Well, she wasn't "literally crying", so there's that. I don't have much trouble with what she was saying, it's sort of her job to err on the side of caution.
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wcb
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9:04a, 3/30/21
AG
Cases are up, deaths and hospitalizations are down. So the things that matter are down. I'll be curious to see in a few weeks if those trend up with a lag.

Personally until we can get case counts under 50k / day (back to where we were last fall) my feelers are still up. We were almost there.
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ExpressAg11
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In reply to Aust Ag • 9:09a, 3/30/21
AG
There's a difference in telling people to proceed with caution and saying she's worried about "impending doom"...
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Windy City Ag
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9:10a, 3/30/21
AG
Quote:
Cases are up, deaths and hospitalizations are down. So the things that matter are down. I'll be curious to see in a few weeks if those trend up with a lag.

Personally until we can get case counts under 50k / day (back to where we were last fall) my feelers are still up. We were almost there.
This is generally my feeling and basically what the CDC Director said in her message. She torpedoed it though through the "I am terrified" comment.

It seems like any back-step is just a big bump on the the road to an eventual resolution whether it be natural or vaccine based herd immunity.
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Aust Ag
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In reply to ExpressAg11 • 9:17a, 3/30/21
AG
ExpressAg11 said:
There's a difference in telling people to proceed with caution and saying she's worried about "impending doom"...
Well yeah, that was a bit much.
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ExpressAg11
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In reply to Aust Ag • 9:45a, 3/30/21
AG
The issue is, when she says over the top things like that, people aren't going to take her seriously. Myself included. So she may be partially right, but no one will listen to these "health officials" when they say these things. Kind of like when Fauci said kids shouldn't play with each other until vaccinated.
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NASAg03
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In reply to Aust Ag • 9:57a, 3/30/21
Aust Ag said:
2wealfth Man said:
Aust Ag said:
2wealfth Man said:
CDC Director was literally crying and guilt tripping folks in her "news" conference today. Totally unprofessional.
What!??! I had this on the TV at lunch (with sound off), anyone have video? No way!
https://www.nbcnews.com/video/cdc-director-walensky-urges-americans-to-continue-to-follow-covid-guidelines-109276742001
Well, she wasn't "literally crying", so there's that. I don't have much trouble with what she was saying, it's sort of her job to err on the side of caution.
There's a difference between conveying facts to generate a change you desire, and instilling fear or guilt to generate change.

Fear almost always results in negative unintended consequences, sometimes worse than the not doing anything at all. What we've seen this entire pandemic from celebrity health officials is excessive caution and fear that doesn't line up with reality, which divides people. In addition, when these dire predictions fail to happen, people won't respond when there is a real emergency, and won't believe interventions that actually do work.

Seems everyone forgets about this parable:

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beerad12man
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11:12a, 3/30/21
AG
Are we even sure cases are actually up? I mean, not confirmed cases, but actual cases? Remember, percent positives matter. Testing frequency matters. Is there a way to see testing frequency.

I personally think testing in certain populations, ie going back to school from spring break, are up causing at least some of the spike. Even though cases in this age range really aren't to worry about.

Cases are likely about the same as they were a month ago, as the percent positive seems to be the same as it was a month ago, and half of what it was 2 months ago.



And no, it's not her job to beg people with fear tactics and say stuff like "impending doom". It's her job to gather information, and inform the public of those findings.
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KingofHazor
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1:56p, 3/30/21
Here in PA, cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all up, and fairly significantly.
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AggieUSMC
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2:03p, 3/30/21
AG
They're up. But even Israel had somewhat of a surge in the middle of their vaccine rollout as well before they dropped.
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beerad12man
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In reply to KingofHazor • 2:24p, 3/30/21
AG
Jabin said:
Here in PA, cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all up, and fairly significantly.
Maybe it's trending that way ever so slightly, I don't know. Maybe in a few weeks, you'll show to be right. I'm just going off the graphs I see, and the 7 day average for deaths in Pennsylvania are about what they've been since March 12th, and less than any time in January for February, or the first 12 days of March. So steady since about March 12th at best. Not what I'd describe as up fairly significantly.

"The trend in the 14-day moving average number of hospitalized patients per day is about 4,500 lower than it was at the peak on December 25, 2020. The current 14-day average is also below what it was at the height of the spring peak on May 3, 2020. However, the decrease in hospitalized patients has started to increase," the Department of Health said.

Cases have gone up since the dip in February. Deaths remain steady. Hospitalizations actually down since March 3rd but possibly trending upwards.
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KingofHazor
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In reply to beerad12man • 2:41p, 3/30/21
I keep track of the stats here in PA fairly closely.

The uptrends are not "possible". They're fairly clear and certain. They're not as high as the earlier highs from mid-December, of course, but they are significantly increasing.

For example, the 7-day rolling average of new cases has increased from a low of around 2400-2500/day in late February to around 4000/day today. It started increasing steadily in mid-March, which is not what you would expect if seasonality were the controlling factor (winter basically ended in PA in mid-March). Hospitalizations have increased from a low of around 1433 on March 14 to 1980 as of today's data. Deaths are remaining fairly stable at around 30-40/day, but they trail hospitalizations by 10-14 days, and hospitalizations trail new cases by a few days, so one would expect deaths to start increasing steadily in the next few days.
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beerad12man
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In reply to KingofHazor • 3:11p, 3/30/21
AG
That's fair, but I'd still say just possible in terms of hospitalizations and deaths, not certain. At least not certain to the extent of what I'd call "significantly". Yes, with the rise in cases it's logical to think they will both rise, but the extent is still unknown.

Maybe where we disagree was what significant means. If cases rise to about what they were in January, or even 60/70% of what they were in January, I'd call that significant. As of now, they are about 1/3rd of the peak.

Also, if the crowd getting the virus now are overall younger than in January with the vaccine rollouts, it doesn't necessarily have to mean deaths/hospitalizations rise at the same rate as in the past. Only time will tell. I'd guess that deaths/hospitalizations will end up less than 1/3rd of the peak unless cases continue a sharp incline upwards. But I just don't see that happening. Over a million confirmed cases in a 12 million population, likely 2-3 times that in reality. 31% with single doses (should be 80-90% coverage here) and 16& with double doses.

Just seems that immunity will kick in far before it reaches peak times, and with more elderly already covered, the average age of infection might be lower to boot.

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KingofHazor
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In reply to beerad12man • 3:15p, 3/30/21
Quote:
Just seems that immunity will kick in far before it reaches peak times, and with more elderly already covered, the average age of infection might be lower to boot.
I suspect/hope that's right just like what supposedly happened in Israel.

I suspect that the recent uptick is because people are thinking just a bit too early that "it's over". In another month or two, hopefully, they'll be right.
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PJYoung
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3:43p, 3/30/21
AG


Quote:
People under 60 are accounting for the majority of new Covid-19 cases across the country likely a testament to the success of the vaccines that have been administered to primarily older, more vulnerable Americans.

The number of cases is rising again following a steep decline and then plateauing for several weeks. During a White House Covid-19 briefing Monday, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said the rise in cases an average increase of 10 percent from the previous week gave her a sense of "impending doom."

Quote:
Nationwide, "the number of 25-to-49-year-olds visiting U.S. emergency departments for diagnosed Covid-19 is now higher than the number of visits among patients 65 and older," the CDC said in a statement to NBC News.

Quote:
The trend toward younger patients with milder illness is likely the reason many intensive care units are no longer inundated with severe cases.

At the pandemic's peak last year, Dr. Todd Rice, director of Vanderbilt University Medical Center's medical intensive care unit in Nashville, Tennessee, said he had 60 Covid-19 patients at once. Now, he has five.

The shift is likely because "we've changed the demographics of the people who are being affected" by the illness, Rice said.
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