beerad12man said:

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Seasonality in our favor along with higher levels of immunity with both vaccines and natural infection. Could be nearing 60% overall that have at least some protection. 36% from first dose. Then 30-40% of the remaining 64% having some natural immunity.

Some say Texas will again "surge" come June and July due to the seasonal trend displayed last year that's played out some in the north, but I think it will be minuscule compared to Michigan, or our December surge. I'm not as convinced it happens at all, but if it does happen, you might have a population with 70+% community immunity in terms of at least some protection (50% first dose and 30-40% of the remaining 50% with natural immunity) Which might mean 75-80% of adults. I just hope we get to 65% of adults vaccinated and I think it all but goes away, little bits of cases here and there at most. Fast approaching 50% adults now.

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This is interesting. I didn't know this was expecting of an additional surge in June or July. I guess these vaccines will definitely be tested come summer if that is the case.

Never Mind . . .

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This is interesting. I didn't know this was expecting of an additional surge in June or July.

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Anecdotal but my kid's school is experiencing a pretty big surge. That school population saw cases declining down to nothing and then 10 kids got it at once. All were at a weekend b-ball tournament. Those kids spread it to a bunch of others.

A big group of kids are now quarantining at home.

Best guess, seasonality is in our favor and the chain of higher contact transmission has been, at least in part, burned through because of the winter spike.

Vaccines are major major piece of it, with >1/3 of the state vaccinated. Factor in 10% of the state legitimately tested positive and the hit rate on documented versus undocumented cases was anywhere from 1:2 to 1:5 (maybe more), then we're rapidly approaching that range where the transmissibility chain is hitting "dead ends" everywhere and fizzling out in the older cohorts that (a) had to go to work all last year or (b) got a vaccine already.

Now, that said, we have basically flatlined on total hospitalizations and decline in new daily cases, with the latter maintaining a tepid downward tilt. Lot of ways to look at that and make postulations, but it's moot so long as everything keeps dropping, which I think it will save & except the under 20 crowd. Seems to me that cohort will see a surge in cases later this year barring a change in policy on vaccination.

amercer said:

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I'm told it's a pretty contagious virus and if a group of unvaccinated people are exposed they will likely catch it.

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Are you saying his kids classmates have one of the variants?

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COVID-19 was one of the more contagious viruses we've ever seen, so I don't think you need a variant to infect unvaccinated people. Hundreds of millions of people caught the original.

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Yeah . . . .I guess I posted as most of the parents in my older boy's grade (the group having to quarantine) have really relaxed and assumed the worst has passed. The flare up was a harsh reminder it is still circulating pretty much everywhere.

Several non-vaxxed parents have gotten it per the rumor mill but only the kiddos have been confirmed.

It's not because otherwise it would be national news..

80% smartass 20% just making the point that the virus is just as contagious as it was a year ago for unvaccinated people, even if we are all kind of done with the pandemic bs

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I didn't know you were just being coy, otherwise what would be the point of your post besides to be a smartass?

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I figured he was being funny as well. Mercer is a solid, straight-down-the-middle, non-hormonal poster so he was probably just trying to be helpful.

Gordo14 said:

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For the record, I've never seen anybody on this board suggest cases would rise significantly - the data never supported that would happen. Cases were always facing a huge head wind of vaccinations and seasonality. Of course F16 posters can't understand that. I don't think it was ethical to not wear masks before the vaccine was widely available. At this point with walk up vaccinations widely available we're basically at that point. I hope people still actively get the vaccine, and honestly I'm disappointed at the turnout because the benefits of true herd immunity are immense. Life will go on and hopefully the unvaccinated don't cause issues next winter.

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Is it fair to say that if the numbers were going to go down anyway that masks were not going to make a difference either way? I don't necessarily get that line of thinking so I apologize if I'm not following your logic correctly.

beerad12man said:

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It's plenty ethical if masks are and continue to be theater

But yes. It is a little disappointing in the lack of numbers getting vaccinated now. The good news is I believe that the number of those not getting the vaccine are highly immune naturally. For 2 reasons. 1) the most common answer I get when I ask someone why they won't get the vaccine is that they've already had the virus. 2) most people who refuse the vaccine also likely refused social distancing and were out and about a ton the last year.

Wouldn't shock me at all if 40% or more of the Texans who don't get vaccinated have some kind of natural immunity.

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My county firmly falls in the #2 category. Schools without masks, places like the trampoline park have been open since last summer without masks and are usually packed with kids, their parents and birthday parties. Social distancing hasn't really been a thing. I'm sure we have a lower vaccination rate.