I did that for my younger kid. The older one is having to suck it up this year because I'm pretty sure the public school is petty and will try to hold it against her when she tests into the magnet program at the one of the top high schools in the country which is a mile from my house.

But real life problems don't really concern the mask freedom heros on here

Edit to say that I've said enough on this topic and I don't need a ban or to get this thread deleted if people want to continue useful discussion.

Can you clarify how he has been able to attend school without a mask if the schools require masks?

I bet there are a lot of dress code rules that high schoolers would like to be able to dismiss if they knew how to communicate freedom effectively. I'm interested.

cc_ag92 said:

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Can you clarify how he has been able to attend school without a mask if the school's require masks?

I bet there are a lot of dress code rules that high schoolers would like to be able to dismiss if they knew how to communicate freedom effectively. I'm interested.

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I don't know about that situation but one of my kids goes to a mask required school and the majority of the teachers think it is dumb and don't enforce it in their classrooms. The kids all have a mask but don't wear it most of the time.

That's fine. I was just curious about the communication method his son had used. It sounds like one that lots of us need to learn these days.

Sorry, wrong reply...Carry on

Dad said:

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cc_ag92 said:

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Can you clarify how he has been able to attend school without a mask if the school's require masks?

I bet there are a lot of dress code rules that high schoolers would like to be able to dismiss if they knew how to communicate freedom effectively. I'm interested.

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I don't know about that situation but one of my kids goes to a mask required school and the majority of the teachers think it is dumb and don't enforce it in their classrooms. The kids all have a mask but don't wear it most of the time.

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Most of us here at the MS I work at have been vaccinated. So most teachers (though not all) have not been enforcing things very hard. It is getting hard to do so understandably. Kids "wear" their masks, but many under the nose, half on half off, around their chin etc. Heck, for many, the masks are too big, lol.

Texas peaked last year for the first time around July when people went indoors to avoid the heat...that's a common talking point. Is it accurate?

Given vaccination rates now...can we expect another, albeit smaller amplitude peak this year?

West Point Aggie said:

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Texas peaked last year for the first time around July when people went indoors to avoid the heat...that's a common talking point. Is it accurate?

Given vaccination rates now...can we expect another, albeit smaller amplitude peak this year?

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Probably depends on how close to herd immunity we are in July. Assuming we are close or at herd immunity by July then we shouldn't see much of anything.

June/July might still be a slight "casedemic", and even that's not a sure thing, if we are testing a bunch of children and asymptomatic people, but I don't think hospitalizations and/or deaths follow.

I am starting to think we are about 65% of adults having some degree of immunity to this, and all far more unlikely to end up hospitalized than a year ago. 48% with at least a first dose, which decreases hospitalizations and deaths considerably even if not 100%, then another 30-40% who likely have some kind of natural immunity. By June 1st, when we started to spike last year, I'm guessing that number of adults is over 70% as we will creep up to 53-57% of adults with a first shot by then.

This doesn't even count that from the beginning, many had some kind of innate tcell response that could also be helping and/or at least having just asymptomatics. Which again, asymptomatic and/or minor cases no longer matter when the vulnerable are protected. The higher the age across the country and in Texas, the more immunity we have.

West Point Aggie said:

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Texas peaked last year for the first time around July when people went indoors to avoid the heat...that's a common talking point. Is it accurate?

Given vaccination rates now...can we expect another, albeit smaller amplitude peak this year?

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We had started opening up more around the April/May months, so there was always going to be an increase, at least in my mind.

Probably some of being inside to avoid the heat played a factor, but August is hotter than June and July and I'm sure people we still inside avoiding heat.

I attribute a lot of it to pushing spread down the road.

I honestly don't expect much of a surge this year given 1) the virus has spread a lot more and 2) vaccines, but that's not a scientific expectation.

beerad12man said:

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June/July might still be a slight "casedemic", and even that's not a sure thing, if we are testing a bunch of children and asymptomatic people, but I don't think hospitalizations and/or deaths follow.

I am starting to think we are about 65% of adults having some degree of immunity to this, and all far more unlikely to end up hospitalized than a year ago. 48% with at least a first dose, which decreases hospitalizations and deaths considerably even if not 100%, then another 30-40% who likely have some kind of natural immunity. By June 1st, when we started to spike last year, I'm guessing that number of adults is over 70% as we will creep up to 53-57% of adults with a first shot by then.

This doesn't even count that from the beginning, many had some kind of innate tcell response that could also be helping and/or at least having just asymptomatics. Which again, asymptomatic and/or minor cases no longer matter when the vulnerable are protected. The higher the age across the country and in Texas, the more immunity we have.

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I think you are pretty close on numbers:

Right now in Texas we have 2.9 million cases (documented). Assume a 3x of that (seen anywhere from 2-10 used, but let's assume a low number of 3) gets you to 9 million cases in Texas.

Vaccines so far are at 18 million, so half that for 9 million people vaccinated (again lower number, some of those will be JnJ 1 shots).

18 million have either natural immunity or vaccine, 18 million out of 29 million people is 62% of total population. When you knock out kids for the vaccine portion your number of adults that have immunity now should be over 70%.

Aston94 said:

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beerad12man said:

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June/July might still be a slight "casedemic", and even that's not a sure thing, if we are testing a bunch of children and asymptomatic people, but I don't think hospitalizations and/or deaths follow.

I am starting to think we are about 65% of adults having some degree of immunity to this, and all far more unlikely to end up hospitalized than a year ago. 48% with at least a first dose, which decreases hospitalizations and deaths considerably even if not 100%, then another 30-40% who likely have some kind of natural immunity. By June 1st, when we started to spike last year, I'm guessing that number of adults is over 70% as we will creep up to 53-57% of adults with a first shot by then.

This doesn't even count that from the beginning, many had some kind of innate tcell response that could also be helping and/or at least having just asymptomatics. Which again, asymptomatic and/or minor cases no longer matter when the vulnerable are protected. The higher the age across the country and in Texas, the more immunity we have.

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I think you are pretty close on numbers:

Right now in Texas we have 2.9 million cases (documented). Assume a 3x of that (seen anywhere from 2-10 used, but let's assume a low number of 3) gets you to 9 million cases in Texas.

Vaccines so far are at 18 million, so half that for 9 million people vaccinated (again lower number, some of those will be JnJ 1 shots).

18 million have either natural immunity or vaccine, 18 million out of 29 million people is 62% of total population. When you knock out kids for the vaccine portion your number of adults that have immunity now should be over 70%.

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Exactly. Although based on the data a month after the first shot of Maderna and Pfizer you're 94% vaccinated regardless of a second shot. So probably closer to 80% or 90% immunity than 50% in Texas.

I remember arguing with someone on one of these threads about how the Texas Rangers would kill everyone without social distancing for opening day. I tried explaining this and they could not get it.

At this point there's no sense in distancing, mask, or other type of government regulations after May. Everyone will have had the opportunity to get the vaccine (since it was opened up 3/31/21) or will already have immunity. Someone needs to start questioning the government over reach and requiring to justify their orders.

My question is this. Being involved in schools, kids under junior high age are extremely rare to get it and appear not to spread it (usually get it from being isolated at home with a family for weeks that has it) while junior high kids (although less than adults) get it and spread it. I wonder if by May we might start vaccinating kids down to 10 years.

Kind of nitpicking, but the latest number I see is 37.1% with at least one shot in Texas. Add in a third that have had it, but there is overlap since those people are also getting vaccinated. Even with overlap that gets up to about 60% plus kids (although overlap exists there as well)

GAC06 said:

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Kind of nitpicking, but the latest number I see is 37.1% with at least one shot in Texas. Add in a third that have had it, but there is overlap since those people are also getting vaccinated. Even with overlap that gets up to about 60% plus kids (although overlap exists there as well)

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No idea who has real numbers. They seem to all be differnet.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker-texas/

Per this (I'm rounding)

18 mil shots given
11.3 mil fully vaccinated.

These numbers mixed with CDC data for actual sick (versus confirmed) would mean we'd be close to 80% immunity in Texas (1 shot + CDC number of suspected cases / 33 million residents)

GAC06 said:

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Kind of nitpicking, but the latest number I see is 37.1% with at least one shot in Texas. Add in a third that have had it, but there is overlap since those people are also getting vaccinated. Even with overlap that gets up to about 60% plus kids (although overlap exists there as well)

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I think 1/3 is probably somewhat of a good estimate in Texas, so lets assume 33.3%. All you do is multiple that with .629, then add to the 37.1% to get 58.04%. That's overall population. Likely about 65% adults or more. Now, in fairness, neither the vaccine or the natural immunity are 100%, so some cases might slip through. But rare, and even more rarely to end up in the hospital or dead from it.

But.... Then you have to factor in a few things when trying to determine immunity:

1) I've asked a few people why they aren't getting the vaccine, and the number 1 answer I get? I've already had covid. It's one of the top reasons people aren't getting it, so if 1/3 is the state average for those who have had the virus, logically I tend to think more than 1/3 that don't get vaccinated will have had it since it's one of the reasons some aren't getting it.

2) Who isn't getting the vaccine? Conservatives. Guess what? Those that aren't getting the vaccine are also the types that likely didn't follow much protocol throughout the year. Social distancing, masks if they even help, going to restaurants/bars, having friends/family over, etc. So again, this leads me to believe those that don't get it have a higher than national average of immunity, similar to the reasoning in point 1.

3) Population density: Inner cities where it can spread more. Guess what. They are more liberal, so the vaccination rates are more there than in the middle of nowhere, small town Texas that doesn't need as much vaccinated to prevent high numbers.

4) Innate immunity. Since the beginning, many have said that 20-30% of cases are asymptomatic, and there seems to be some kind of innate ability to fight off the virus. This tends to be the younger you are, the more likely you fight if off easily. As we see the graphs, they correlate to the older you are, the higher the immune levels because of the vaccination rollout. So you can argue that each age requires more immunity to prevent spread. Children much less than adults.

AgLA06 said:

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GAC06 said:

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Kind of nitpicking, but the latest number I see is 37.1% with at least one shot in Texas. Add in a third that have had it, but there is overlap since those people are also getting vaccinated. Even with overlap that gets up to about 60% plus kids (although overlap exists there as well)

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No idea who has real numbers. They seem to all be differnet.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker-texas/

Per this (I'm rounding)

18 mil shots given
11.3 mil fully vaccinated.

These numbers mixed with CDC data for actual sick (versus confirmed) would mean we'd be close to 80% immunity in Texas (1 shot + CDC number of suspected cases / 33 million residents)

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That's saying 11.3 with one dose. Not fully vaccinated. I've seen anywhere from 10.7 to 11.3 right now. So no telling who has the most accurate numbers.