Haven't followed much lately but is there any reason for the surge in cases?
Why the massive surge in India?
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Last: 4 yr ago by RangerRick9211
Once the virus gets going it gets going. No idea why now. Are they taking less precautions? Idk. The fear mongering media will claim a variant that will kill more!
In reality they probably have relatively low community immunity with only around 4-5% vaccination rate at the start of it, and once it gets going the R0 can get above 1, and spread fairly quickly when you have minimal community immunity.
That said, let's not forget India is like 4 to 4.5 of us. So right now it would be like us going from 10k cases to 90k cases in a month, which we basically did when we went from 40k to 200k in about 2 months, which would be like 160k to 800k for them.
In reality they probably have relatively low community immunity with only around 4-5% vaccination rate at the start of it, and once it gets going the R0 can get above 1, and spread fairly quickly when you have minimal community immunity.
That said, let's not forget India is like 4 to 4.5 of us. So right now it would be like us going from 10k cases to 90k cases in a month, which we basically did when we went from 40k to 200k in about 2 months, which would be like 160k to 800k for them.
But they have been "open" for a while. Figured it's just a different strain that is more infectious but less deadly
Honestly, I'm surprised it took this long. When the whole thing started, India was the first place I thought would get absolutely wrecked. They are over populated and have a poor healthcare system.
Also, I don't think you can really compare their surge to ours. When we had a surge, we were testing everyone. Essentially, if your neighbor got sick, you went and got tested even if you didn't have symptoms. From my understanding, that's not the case in India. The people getting tested there have symptoms. If they did contact tracing their numbers would be even higher.
Also, I don't think you can really compare their surge to ours. When we had a surge, we were testing everyone. Essentially, if your neighbor got sick, you went and got tested even if you didn't have symptoms. From my understanding, that's not the case in India. The people getting tested there have symptoms. If they did contact tracing their numbers would be even higher.
Yeah that's probably true. Still I've heard both. Some posters say the people they talk to India say it's overblown. Others say it's bad. No way to know really without being on ground levels there versus say New York in March 2020
Hindus and Indians celebrate a lot of festivals, especially in the spring. Holi, arguably the most popular, occurred the last weekend in March. If I had to guess, the gatherings at those festivals, along with an extremely high population density, poverty, and overall lower quality in healthcare (especially outside of metro centers), are the main drivers behind this.
The official narrative is that there is a "double mutant" variant in India that could be slightly more transmittable and it's possible that antibodies won't work as well on it.
[url] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56907007.amp[/url]
[url] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56907007.amp[/url]
NYT's The Daily had a good episode on it today. Scary ***** No oxygen in parts, overrun hospitals, crematoriums running non stop, and pretty much no way to lock down again. And keep in mind that a country like India has no way to count everyone. Reporting states that it is undercounted by a factor of 10.
Also, India has a lot of vaccine skeptics and best case is vaccinating 300 mil of 1.4 billion by July. This place is going to be a nightmare for a while.
Also, India has a lot of vaccine skeptics and best case is vaccinating 300 mil of 1.4 billion by July. This place is going to be a nightmare for a while.
The celebrated the Khumb Mela which is the largest religious gathering on earth. they bathe (ick) in the Ganges and it is a big deal there
Make Mental Asylums Great Again!
The big question I have is why it took this long. If you think of spread as a kinetic phenomenon, and each person is like a gas particle in a container, if transmission is modeled as a second order process, India has roughly 4x the population density as the US, which means its transmission rate would be 16x faster than the US. Scary to think about, but if they abandoned social distancing and had virtually no immunity, it would get bad fast. Why now is the question.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Also, probably lots of Vitamin D deficient folks (darker skin color).
My biggest question as well.94chem said:
The big question I have is why it took this long. If you think of spread as a kinetic phenomenon, and each person is like a gas particle in a container, if transmission is modeled as a second order process, India has roughly 4x the population density as the US, which means its transmission rate would be 16x faster than the US. Scary to think about, but if they abandoned social distancing and had virtually no immunity, it would get bad fast. Why now is the question.
Can only surmise they did an exceptional job actually isolating, constricting case growth through the last year. Flip side is that probably kept down the natural growth of immunity vis-a-vis natural infection, allowing it to spread more uniformly nationwide and with the recent holiday festival and "giving up" on NPI's they're now going through a firestorm.
Someone that works for me has a grandmother who's 90 in India with it. They finally found room on the floor in the hospital for her. They are definitely having issues probably most similar to early Italy or maybe Brazil. Like mentioned, surprised it took this long. Many credited the young population.
AustinAg2K said:
Honestly, I'm surprised it took this long. When the whole thing started, India was the first place I thought would get absolutely wrecked. They are over populated and have a poor healthcare system.
Also, I don't think you can really compare their surge to ours. When we had a surge, we were testing everyone. Essentially, if your neighbor got sick, you went and got tested even if you didn't have symptoms. From my understanding, that's not the case in India. The people getting tested there have symptoms. If they did contact tracing their numbers would be even higher.
Same. I have no idea how this didn't happen way, way sooner over there.
Very sad situation over there. They were even exporting the vaccine for a time per ZDoggMD. Now they need it badly.
They have a very large population of extremely impoverished people that aren't in great health in the first place living in very dense urban areas.
So, if I'm reading these charts correctly, the numbers per capita in India are not off the chart? With a huge population and what I would assume is a poor healthcare system, it still wouldn't take much to overwhelm that system.Old Buffalo said:
twk said:So, if I'm reading these charts correctly, the numbers per capita in India are not off the chart? With a huge population and what I would assume is a poor healthcare system, it still wouldn't take much to overwhelm that system.Old Buffalo said:
The per capita documented numbers might not be off the charts, but the undocumented cases probably are. I'd think that with worse infrastructure and higher population density there's probably a much higher gap between documented and undocumented cases in India than there were in the US.
DanHo2010 said:twk said:So, if I'm reading these charts correctly, the numbers per capita in India are not off the chart? With a huge population and what I would assume is a poor healthcare system, it still wouldn't take much to overwhelm that system.Old Buffalo said:
The per capita documented numbers might not be off the charts, but the undocumented cases probably are. I'd think that with worse infrastructure and higher population density there's probably a much higher gap between documented and undocumented cases in India than there were in the US.
Yep. It's hard to believe what the media is telling us on this, but it's pretty obvious the healthcare system is overwhelmed here.
Capitol Ag said:
Very sad situation over there. They were even exporting the vaccine for a time per ZDoggMD. Now they need it badly.
IndIa is the biggest vaccine producer in the world, just not for their own people.
It did. You have no idea how bad it was there.SoupNazi2001 said:
How has this not happened in major cities in China as well.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
SoupNazi2001 said:
How has this not happened in major cities in China as well.
China lies about data and it can completely control its population.
The Chinese are under a lockdown system there that you can't imagine.SoupNazi2001 said:
How has this not happened in major cities in China as well.
We had a wonderful Chinese family stay with us for about six weeks last year as their lease here had ended about six weeks before they were scheduled to return to China.
In order to return home, they first had to upload proof of a negative PCR test no more than 48 hours prior to their flight.
Once they landed in China, they were quarantined in a hotel, at their cost, for two weeks. No human contact of any kind. Food had to be delivered and left at the door. I think they were tested again at that point, or maybe it was two weeks later...I can't remember.
AFTER the two week quarantine in the hotel, they then were allowed home but had to remain quarantined an ADDITIONAL TWO WEEKS at home. Again, at some point at the end of one of these quarantines they had to get retested, I just don't remember when.
So basically a month of quarantine and multiple tests before they could rejoin society. Everyone in the airport where they landed were in full hazmat suits as well.
SoupNazi2001 said:
How has this not happened in major cities in China as well.
If you believe Chinese Covid numbers then I have a s*** ton of items to sell you at reasonable prices!!!
Make Mental Asylums Great Again!
I read an article yesterday, forget where saying they pulled back on restrictions and it sounded no different than everywhere else as far as that goes, less masks, more stuff open at higher percents...etc
The difference is something like 40% of India lives in multi-generational households. So, parents, kids and grandparents I guess.
We saw an uptick in the US too but between coming out of winter and thr vaccine it's going back down
Perhaps thr 40% multi generational households is the main difference
The article did mention they don't know if there's a new variant
The difference is something like 40% of India lives in multi-generational households. So, parents, kids and grandparents I guess.
We saw an uptick in the US too but between coming out of winter and thr vaccine it's going back down
Perhaps thr 40% multi generational households is the main difference
The article did mention they don't know if there's a new variant
Do you honestly believe India had restrictions in place that kept covid at bay but recently did away with them and now it's rampant?
GAC06 said:
Do you honestly believe India had restrictions in place that kept covid at bay but recently did away with them and now it's rampant?
Well, perhaps not restrictions but government recommendations
The article basically blamed the government for giving the population the all clear. So people behaved as it was all clear, then went home to multi generational households.
I'm kinda thinking it was a Time article but not certain. It was a long winded article so I breezed thru it
jamey said:GAC06 said:
Do you honestly believe India had restrictions in place that kept covid at bay but recently did away with them and now it's rampant?
Well, perhaps not restrictions but government recommendations
The article basically blamed the government for giving the population the all clear. So people behaved as it was all clear, then went home to multi generational households.
I'm kinda thinking it was a Time article but not certain. It was a long winded article so I breezed thru it
"then went home to multi generational households."
Many already went home long prior to the all clear. My team had left their primary city to their home stations months ago.
The variant in India contains an accumulation of mutations in the spike protein that most likely cause the variant to be more transmissible than other variants that had impacted that region/country. You can see from the data how this particular variant has become the dominant variant in circulation in that part of the world. Its also a two-fold problem -- not only is this variant most likely more transmissible, but also immunity from previous infections a year ago is waning and if this variant is able to escape the immune response a little better compared to other variants, it would be more likely that it can breakthrough immunity and cause a re-infection and escape some of the herd immunity effects from previous outbreaks.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/04/24/988744811/people-are-talking-about-a-double-mutant-variant-in-india-what-does-that-mean
Just a small change in transmissibility of these variants, couple with India's conditions, can greatly impact doubling rates and infection rates. You have to remember that infections are exponential growths on a log scale -- just a slight change can dramatically impact how many people can get infected and the outcome of an outbreak. That's always been the worry with variants popping up every so often. Like I mentioned -- India's conditions in terms of not only sanitation but how many people live in a household no doubt also impact the equation
Quote:
Preliminary evidence suggests that B1.617 is more contagious than previous strains of the virus. A study published Tuesday found that the L452R mutation may enhance the ability of viruses to infect human cells in the laboratory. The variant in California, which carries this same mutation, is about 20 percent more transmissible than older strains of the virus.
B.1.617 is also spreading quickly in India. Over the past few months, it has become the dominant strain in the state of Maharashtra, Nature has reported.
But, Andersen says, no one knows for sure if B.1.617 is more transmissible and thus driving India's surge. "We also know the B.1.1.7 [the variant first detected in the U.K.] is circulating in India, and we know that P.1. [the variant first detected in Brazil] is also circulating there, too. So they could also play a role in this surge. We simply don't have the data yet."
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/04/24/988744811/people-are-talking-about-a-double-mutant-variant-in-india-what-does-that-mean
Just a small change in transmissibility of these variants, couple with India's conditions, can greatly impact doubling rates and infection rates. You have to remember that infections are exponential growths on a log scale -- just a slight change can dramatically impact how many people can get infected and the outcome of an outbreak. That's always been the worry with variants popping up every so often. Like I mentioned -- India's conditions in terms of not only sanitation but how many people live in a household no doubt also impact the equation
jamey said:GAC06 said:
Do you honestly believe India had restrictions in place that kept covid at bay but recently did away with them and now it's rampant?
Well, perhaps not restrictions but government recommendations
The article basically blamed the government for giving the population the all clear. So people behaved as it was all clear, then went home to multi generational households.
I'm kinda thinking it was a Time article but not certain. It was a long winded article so I breezed thru it
Well then I guess they should get back to those recommendations. Should take care of it in about... two weeks
GAC06 said:jamey said:GAC06 said:
Do you honestly believe India had restrictions in place that kept covid at bay but recently did away with them and now it's rampant?
Well, perhaps not restrictions but government recommendations
The article basically blamed the government for giving the population the all clear. So people behaved as it was all clear, then went home to multi generational households.
I'm kinda thinking it was a Time article but not certain. It was a long winded article so I breezed thru it
Well then I guess they should get back to those recommendations. Should take care of it in about... two weeks
Not if the reports are true that reported cases are as underreported as they're estimating. I've seen between 4x and 10x. In a population that dense ...stop being dumb is probably too little too late
You're right, I forgot restrictions (I mean recommendations) only work when they're working. If they're not working it's because they must have been lifted or disobeyed.
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