Ranger222 said:

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The variant in India contains an accumulation of mutations in the spike protein that most likely cause the variant to be more transmissible than other variants that had impacted that region/country. You can see from the data how this particular variant has become the dominant variant in circulation in that part of the world. Its also a two-fold problem -- not only is this variant most likely more transmissible, but also immunity from previous infections a year ago is waning and if this variant is able to escape the immune response a little better compared to other variants, it would be more likely that it can breakthrough immunity and cause a re-infection and escape some of the herd immunity effects from previous outbreaks.

Quote:

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Preliminary evidence suggests that B1.617 is more contagious than previous strains of the virus. A study published Tuesday found that the L452R mutation may enhance the ability of viruses to infect human cells in the laboratory. The variant in California, which carries this same mutation, is about 20 percent more transmissible than older strains of the virus.
B.1.617 is also spreading quickly in India. Over the past few months, it has become the dominant strain in the state of Maharashtra, Nature has reported.

But, Andersen says, no one knows for sure if B.1.617 is more transmissible and thus driving India's surge. "We also know the B.1.1.7 [the variant first detected in the U.K.] is circulating in India, and we know that P.1. [the variant first detected in Brazil] is also circulating there, too. So they could also play a role in this surge. We simply don't have the data yet."

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https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/04/24/988744811/people-are-talking-about-a-double-mutant-variant-in-india-what-does-that-mean


Just a small change in transmissibility of these variants, couple with India's conditions, can greatly impact doubling rates and infection rates. You have to remember that infections are exponential growths on a log scale -- just a slight change can dramatically impact how many people can get infected and the outcome of an outbreak. That's always been the worry with variants popping up every so often. Like I mentioned -- India's conditions in terms of not only sanitation but how many people live in a household no doubt also impact the equation

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beerad12man said:

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To me, the two biggest concerns with india isn't their current LISTED cases. It's...

1) How much capability do they have to report cases? I know in the US, it is estimated we were about 3-4x the cases reported, but mostly from asymptomatics, or minor symptoms not getting tested. In India, it might be much worse just in terms of people being able to get the attention to diagnose it.

2) Their healthcare system being able to provide what a place like the US can

Two major, major differences between us and them.

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