My first severe flu ARDS pt of the year............

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Marcus Aurelius
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8:52p, 5/18/21
AG
38 y/o. Severe ARDS. Flu A pos. COVID neg. Amazing. Never. In my career - have I seen so few flu pts and the accompanying MRSA pna / ARDS.

Thought I'd share. A typical year I would have seen dozens if not hundreds of flu/ARDS so far since winter.
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94chem
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8:13a, 5/19/21
Why is that? I mean, not wild speculation. Like, Occam's Razor speculation?
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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Gordo14
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In reply to 94chem • 1:51p, 5/19/21
94chem said:
Why is that? I mean, not wild speculation. Like, Occam's Razor speculation?


Probably a combination of many things, but flu spreads in mormal years barely above an Ro of 1.0. If social mobility is lower and more people than normal take flu shots and a large portion of the seeding of the flu every year is travel between North snd South hemisphere... then it isn't hard to imagine that the Ro never exceeded 1 and therefore never had sustained community spread. It also means IMO, that it is entirely possible that next flu season could be a bad one as immunity might be much lower than it typically is.
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deadbq03
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In reply to Gordo14 • 2:00p, 5/19/21
AG
More than just travel between hemispheres, many if not most flu variants are spawned in SE Asia, where the weather allows flu to run wild all year long.

Those countries were among the strictest in terms of protocols. I'll let others debate whether such measures were an appropriate response, or debate which measures were effective or not, but it seems obvious that the worldwide effort to curb the spread of Covid drastically reduced the flu.
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GAC06
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In reply to Gordo14 • 2:12p, 5/19/21
AG
We also don't test for flu like we do covid. No one gets tested without symptoms and the vast majority with symptoms still don't get tested. So how do we know the transmission rate?
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beerad12man
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2:38p, 5/19/21
AG
I still firmly believe Viral interference. Above posts would explain a lower year than normal. Not damn near eradication. To me, that takes a force of nature. IE, covid.
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Gordo14
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In reply to GAC06 • 3:35p, 5/19/21
GAC06 said:
We also don't test for flu like we do covid. No one gets tested without symptoms and the vast majority with symptoms still don't get tested. So how do we know the transmission rate?


They test for the flu all the time. Why do you think Marcus hasn't seen a flu patient with ARDS until now? I would bet every patient hospitalized with a respiratory illness is tested, so unless you want to argue that literally nobody with flu was hosputalized until now but it was still spreading at normal levels somehow then we know the rate of transmission didn't exceed 1.0 and therefore there was no flu except a handful of one off cases. Flu test positivity rates dropped from close to 20% to sub 1% in the US. That isn't an indication of lack of testing.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/uritheflu/88676
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/articles/flu-cases-decline-dramatically-this-season
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01538-8

It's a fact. You can believe your conspiracy theories, but they are wrong.
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Gordo14
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In reply to beerad12man • 3:43p, 5/19/21
beerad12man said:
I still firmly believe Viral interference. Above posts would explain a lower year than normal. Not damn near eradication. To me, that takes a force of nature. IE, covid.


I get it. You guys will disbelieve anything that suggests fewer interactions brtween people leads to less spread of a communicable disease because that threatens the whole "NPIs don't actually do anything" idea you want to be true... And that dropping the spread below a sustainable level can make the virus disappear. But that's pretty much the scientific consensus outside of random twitter accounts. Note that just 20% less human interaction would be more than enough to drop the spread of flu below a transmission rate of 1.0, meaning it's impossible for the flu to establish sustained transmission. That would kind if fit if people aren't going to concerts, movies, sporting events, going to restaurants less (and sitting further apart) and other social gatherings, wouldn't it? Sure jim may catch the flu and pass it to Sara but statistically Sara and Jim both won't pass it to anybody else and that's the end of the line for the flu. In 2019 they probably would have gotten another 2 people sick at their office who continue that trend further and further.
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GAC06
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In reply to Gordo14 • 3:44p, 5/19/21
AG
Are you seriously arguing that we test for flu like we do covid? I was tested three times for covid in the last year despite never having symptoms. I've had the flu several times in my life without ever having been tested or seen a doctor. Grow up.
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Gordo14
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In reply to GAC06 • 3:48p, 5/19/21
GAC06 said:
Are you seriously arguing that we test for flu like we do covid? I was tested three times for covid in the last year despite never having symptoms. I've had the flu several times in my life without ever having been tested or seen a doctor. Grow up.


That's not what I'm arguing. Were you hospitalized for a respiratory illness?

This idea that testing is the sole driver of cases is complete bull**** if you understand that a positivity rate of a test nationally tells you how many cases you are missing. If 20% of tests are positive in one year, and less than 1% of tests are positive the next, what does that notionally tell you about prevelance in the untested population? Probably that the 20% positivity rate is substantially more prevalant than the .3% positivity rate. It's a simple concept.

Better yet why don't you tell Marcus that he's been treating flu patients as Covid patients for the past year. That is your implication after all.
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GAC06
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In reply to Gordo14 • 3:51p, 5/19/21
AG
Your assertion that we know the exact transmission rate of the flu (which varies anyway) and therefore NPI's worked is simply your personal belief that NPI's worked in the first place. Flu goes mostly unreported and this year covid replaced it.
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GAC06
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In reply to Gordo14 • 3:58p, 5/19/21
AG
Keep talking about implications and conspiracies. Straw men don't reflect well on you.
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Capitol Ag
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In reply to Gordo14 • 4:24p, 5/19/21
AG
Gordo14 said:
beerad12man said:
I still firmly believe Viral interference. Above posts would explain a lower year than normal. Not damn near eradication. To me, that takes a force of nature. IE, covid.


I get it. You guys will disbelieve anything that suggests fewer interactions brtween people leads to less spread of a communicable disease because that threatens the whole "NPIs don't actually do anything" idea you want to be true... And that dropping the spread below a sustainable level can make the virus disappear. But that's pretty much the scientific consensus outside of random twitter accounts. Note that just 20% less human interaction would be more than enough to drop the spread of flu below a transmission rate of 1.0, meaning it's impossible for the flu to establish sustained transmission. That would kind if fit if people aren't going to concerts, movies, sporting events, going to restaurants less (and sitting further apart) and other social gatherings, wouldn't it? Sure jim may catch the flu and pass it to Sara but statistically Sara and Jim both won't pass it to anybody else and that's the end of the line for the flu. In 2019 they probably would have gotten another 2 people sick at their office who continue that trend further and further.
Hey, as long as we don't advocate using NPI now to curb the flu, I'm fine. What most of us don't want to see if a reappearance of mask and social distancing mandates for the flu.
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amercer
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In reply to Capitol Ag • 5:24p, 5/19/21
AG
Honestly if the only NPI we stick to long term is "stay home if you feel sick" we will probably still drastically cut down on flu season.

Seriously, just don't ever go to work sick again.
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94chem
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5:44p, 5/19/21
If you show up sick at the doctor with viral symptoms, you will get a flu test. That is how it works. RediClinic, your PCP, Urgent Care, ER...they all give the flu test. You don't ask for it. They just do it. I don't know what GAC is talking about.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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94chem
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5:46p, 5/19/21
Viral interference does not follow a logical path for me. I would think Covid would make one MORE vulnerable to other infections.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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GAC06
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In reply to 94chem • 5:58p, 5/19/21
AG
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30114-2/fulltext

" These findings show that one respiratory virus can block infection with another through stimulation of antiviral defences in the airway mucosa, supporting the idea that interference from rhinovirus disrupted the 2009 IAV pandemic in Europe. These results indicate that viral interference can potentially affect the course of an epidemic, and this possibility should be considered when designing interventions for seasonal influenza epidemics and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic."
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waitwhat?
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In reply to Gordo14 • 7:22p, 5/19/21
Gordo14 said:
beerad12man said:
I still firmly believe Viral interference. Above posts would explain a lower year than normal. Not damn near eradication. To me, that takes a force of nature. IE, covid.


I get it. You guys will disbelieve anything that suggests fewer interactions brtween people leads to less spread of a communicable disease because that threatens the whole "NPIs don't actually do anything" idea you want to be true... And that dropping the spread below a sustainable level can make the virus disappear. But that's pretty much the scientific consensus outside of random twitter accounts. Note that just 20% less human interaction would be more than enough to drop the spread of flu below a transmission rate of 1.0, meaning it's impossible for the flu to establish sustained transmission. That would kind if fit if people aren't going to concerts, movies, sporting events, going to restaurants less (and sitting further apart) and other social gatherings, wouldn't it? Sure jim may catch the flu and pass it to Sara but statistically Sara and Jim both won't pass it to anybody else and that's the end of the line for the flu. In 2019 they probably would have gotten another 2 people sick at their office who continue that trend further and further.
I do find it pretty unlikely that NPIs had little observable effect on stopping COVID but were able to essentially eradicate multiple other respiratory viruses, namely influenza, that share similar size and mode of transmission.

With the way you're stretching you must be getting ready to participate in this summer's olympics.
" 'People that read with pictures think that it's simply about a mask' - Dana Loesch" - Ban Cow Gas

"Truth is treason in the empire of lies." - Dr. Ron Paul

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Barnyard96
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7:51p, 5/19/21
AG
Glad to see this board is alive and well.
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94chem
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In reply to GAC06 • 10:54p, 5/19/21
GAC06 said:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30114-2/fulltext

" These findings show that one respiratory virus can block infection with another through stimulation of antiviral defences in the airway mucosa, supporting the idea that interference from rhinovirus disrupted the 2009 IAV pandemic in Europe. These results indicate that viral interference can potentially affect the course of an epidemic, and this possibility should be considered when designing interventions for seasonal influenza epidemics and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic."


It would be quite difficult to write a kinetic rate law for flu infections by merely removing Covid-infected persons from the equation. However, I do think it could be possible to write a rate law based on the principles of gas diffusion.

If we model the population as two types of gas molecules in an enclosed space, with one molecule representing infected persons and the other clean, we could say that their collision rate is based on the total number of molecules present and the average velocity of the molecules. If any collision between an I(infected) and C(clean) molecule occurs, a probability of the C turning into an I could be assigned. Finally, a period of infectiousness could be assigned to the I molecules, and then they would revert to C. The average velocity of the molecules would model travel, and the number of molecules would model social distancing. The probability of transmission would of course relate to the Ro value.

Cell phone data, typical Ro values for flu, behavioral data (sketchy, but that's what social scientists have to deal with)... there's an amazing opportunity to study this question of why the flu has been so diminished. I've made my living by asking the right questions. Figuring this out could save the world a lot of suffering.



94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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94chem
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In reply to amercer • 11:00p, 5/19/21
amercer said:
Honestly if the only NPI we stick to long term is "stay home if you feel sick" we will probably still drastically cut down on flu season.

Seriously, just don't ever go to work sick again.


True, but what is sick? Seasonal allergies? Runner's cough? Nausea? Headache?

And have you looked at the numbers on these company temperature checks? I don't think I've had a single reading over 96.0. I'd have to be at 103 for that thing to flag me.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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94chem
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In reply to GAC06 • 11:04p, 5/19/21
GAC06 said:
I've had the flu several times in my life without ever having been tested or seen a doctor. Grow up.


How do you know it was flu? Seriously, how?
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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GAC06
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In reply to 94chem • 11:08p, 5/19/21
AG
I don't. Not relevant to the point though.
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waitwhat?
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In reply to 94chem • 12:00a, 5/20/21
94chem said:
GAC06 said:
I've had the flu several times in my life without ever having been tested or seen a doctor. Grow up.


How do you know it was flu? Seriously, how?


You ignoring the "influenza like illness" part of flu season?

When people say they "had the flu" often times, probably most times, they're talking about ILI. "Flu" is a catch-all for a whole host of respiratory viruses that cause similar illnesses.

You don't have to be tested for the flu to know you have an influenza like illness and say "yeah I had the flu."
" 'People that read with pictures think that it's simply about a mask' - Dana Loesch" - Ban Cow Gas

"Truth is treason in the empire of lies." - Dr. Ron Paul

Big Tech IS the empire of lies

TEXIT
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rilloaggie
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In reply to 94chem • 8:25a, 5/20/21
AG
94chem said:
GAC06 said:
I've had the flu several times in my life without ever having been tested or seen a doctor. Grow up.


How do you know it was flu? Seriously, how?
He probably drove through one of the mass influenza testing centers that have been set up in every mid-sized town in America, that were advertised and shouted out by every politician and major company in America for the better part of a year. You know, the ones that they recommend testing regularly, whether you have symptoms or not? We've always done that for the flu right?
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Marcus Aurelius
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9:05a, 5/20/21
AG
I believe the reasons for the paucity of flu are multi-factorial. The masks and distancing have had to play some role. But I do believe so has the "dominance" of covid. Anyone with a severe respiratory illness admitted here since winter has had covid and flu testing FWIW. She is tenuous but improved a little. She was not vaccinated for flu or covid.
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94chem
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In reply to GAC06 • 9:42a, 5/20/21
GAC06 said:
I don't. Not relevant to the point though.
Completely relevant. Keep up.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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GAC06
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In reply to 94chem • 9:49a, 5/20/21
AG
Telling someone to "keep up" after posting this:

" Viral interference does not follow a logical path for me. I would think Covid would make one MORE vulnerable to other infections."

...is pretty rich. Thanks for your opinion, but plenty of experts and studies disagree with you. Isn't that supposed to be what this board is for? Take a break.
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94chem
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In reply to GAC06 • 1:40p, 5/20/21
GAC06 said:
Telling someone to "keep up" after posting this:

" Viral interference does not follow a logical path for me. I would think Covid would make one MORE vulnerable to other infections."

...is pretty rich. Thanks for your opinion, but plenty of experts and studies disagree with you. Isn't that supposed to be what this board is for? Take a break.
Trying to apply logic and the scientific method here. One can also use it for textual criticism. It's broadly applicable in many areas. It's really one of the foundations of Western thought. Keep up.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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amercer
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2:03p, 5/20/21
AG
Australia didn't have flu or Covid. Maybe it was marsupial interference that was working there.
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Beat40
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In reply to amercer • 2:14p, 5/20/21
amercer said:
Australia didn't have flu or Covid. Maybe it was marsupial interference that was working there.


They're also an island. No dog in this fight, I just think Australia and New Zealand are bad examples.
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amercer
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In reply to Beat40 • 2:22p, 5/20/21
AG
It's a bad comparison for other things, but not for the idea that flu only disappeared this year because everyone had Covid instead.
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GAC06
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In reply to 94chem • 2:23p, 5/20/21
AG
94chem said:
GAC06 said:
Telling someone to "keep up" after posting this:

" Viral interference does not follow a logical path for me. I would think Covid would make one MORE vulnerable to other infections."

...is pretty rich. Thanks for your opinion, but plenty of experts and studies disagree with you. Isn't that supposed to be what this board is for? Take a break.
Trying to apply logic and the scientific method here. One can also use it for textual criticism. It's broadly applicable in many areas. It's really one of the foundations of Western thought. Keep up.


Explain your method in the post I quoted. Oh yeah you're just trolling. Done with you.
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PJYoung
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2:42p, 5/20/21
AG
I feel like anybody that believes that Covid replaced flu also believes that the Covid threat has been vastly overblown.

They also usually believe that doctors stopped testing for the flu this year.

I think flu disappeared mainly due to social distancing and possibly some % of viral interference.

Covid seems to be way more contagious than the flu and there's a segment of our population that won't accept that for whatever reason. *shrug*
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waitwhat?
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In reply to amercer • 2:49p, 5/20/21
amercer said:
It's a bad comparison for other things, but not for the idea that flu only disappeared this year because everyone had Covid instead.
Try African countries that were largely skipped with COVID but did actually have a flu season this year: https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=7
" 'People that read with pictures think that it's simply about a mask' - Dana Loesch" - Ban Cow Gas

"Truth is treason in the empire of lies." - Dr. Ron Paul

Big Tech IS the empire of lies

TEXIT
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