Series Preview: No. 18 Texas A&M at Mississippi State
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Who: Mississippi State University (23-19, 8-10 SEC)
Where: Dudy Noble Field — Starkville, MS
When:
- Friday 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC+)
- Saturday 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC+)
- Sunday 3:30 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Pitching matchups
Friday: Mitchell Kilkenny (RHP, 8-1, 1.91) vs. Konnor Pilkington (LHP, 2-5, 2.95)
Saturday: John Doxakis (LHP, 6-1, 2.10) vs. Ethan Small (LHP, 4-3, 2.79)
Sunday: Stephen Kolek (RHP, 3-4, 3.77) vs. Jacob Billingsley (RHP, 3-2, 4.14)
Scouting Mississippi State
Less than a week ago, the Bulldogs were at the bottom of the SEC West standings at 5-10 with an overall 19-19 record. Most pundits had written this season off, especially with the in-season firing of MSU head coach Andy Cannizaro in late February for off-the-field issues. So most people felt last week that this 2018 Bulldog team with interim coach Gary Henderson would quietly ride off into the sunset and regroup with a new coach next year. Well, this team ignored the script. MSU pulled off a shocking sweep of No. 3 Arkansas at home, and then beat in-state rival and No. 5-ranked Ole Miss on Tuesday. That's four in a row against Top five competition. Suddenly, the Bulldogs are back in the hunt for a postseason berth and at 8-10 is only two games out of first place in the crowded SEC West.
So was this a short-term blip or a fluke, or did this team find the solutions to their long-term shortcomings? That's a good question. We don't know. This weekend's series against the Aggies may give us those answers. If you look at this four-game winning streak over Top five teams, MSU won three of those in their last at-bat, and all four games were comebacks. All four games were close, and through those four games the Bulldogs scored an average of 6.25 runs/game while allowing 4.75 runs/game. So really, good, solid numbers across the board but nothing really sticks out except for clutch hitting late in the game.
The starting pitching has been solid, but underachieving at the top. Left-hander Konnor Pilkington was tabbed as one of the best starters in the SEC coming into 2018. His 2-5 record and 2.95 ERA would look good for just about any college pitcher, but probably not up to the goals that the junior lefty set for himself going into a draft season. Ethan Small's stat line is very similar with a 4-3 win-loss record and a nice 2.79 ERA. Lack of run support early in the season no doubt has affected the win totals of the top two starters. Veteran Jacob Billingsley will toe the rubber in game three, and his numbers reflect a late weekend starter with a 3-2 mark and a hefty 4.14 ERA.
The bullpen is hit-and-miss, and has not been particularly effective overall. Denver McQuary (4.87) and Cole Gordon (5.79) were counted on to deliver early ion the season but were not effective. Zach Neff (1.83), JP France (1.93), and Keegan James (2.55) have the best numbers in the bullpen, but despite the low ERA's, their hits-to-innings pitched is pretty average. There doesn't appear to be a true shutdown closer so far this season. No pitcher on the staff has more than three saves. Overall, the Bulldog pitching staff sports a solid 3.69 ERA compared to the Aggies' 2.93.
At the plate, MSU has struggled as a team for most of the season which is a big reason why they were 19-19 and in last place a week ago. The overall team batting average sits at .267 compared to Texas A&M's .288. The Bulldogs have very little power in the lineup, hitting just 21 home runs on the season compared to 38 for the Aggies. Only one hitter (Luke Alexander - 6) has more than three long balls and he also leads the team in RBI with 33. No other hitter has more than 21 RBI. On the other hand, Texas A&M has five batters with more than 21 RBI. MSU has scored just 214 runs this season compared to A&M's 265. But those numbers don't matter if the rejuvenated Bulldogs carry last week's momentum into this weekend series with the Aggies.
To nobody's surprise, All-American Jake Mangum is leading the Bulldogs in hitting at .335. He also has a high on-base percentage of .410 and he's stolen 12 bases. He gets on-base and gets the offense started for MSU. Hunter Stovall is the only other starter hitting above .300 at a .308 clip. Everybody else falls in the mid-.200's, and that has been the team's weak point this season. However, these .200's hitters have gotten hot in the past week. Guys like Justin Foscue (.266), Rowdey Jordan (.261), and Elijah MacNamee (.250) are hitting over .400 during this current winning streak and they are producing runs. If you are looking to point the finger at one reason for this upsurge in performance, this is it.
Texas A&M storylines to watch
For weeks, Aggie fans have been looking for answers to get this team over the hump. The bullpen has been under-performing. The bottom half of the offensive lineup hasn't been producing. The defense has been inconsistent at times. All of those are definitely true, but most of those issues don't have quick fixes either. In the end, the success of Aggie baseball in 2018 boils down to the quality of starting pitching. It has been pretty good most of the year with an occasional hiccup from Stephen Kolek. When an offense is clicking on all cylinders or a team has a deep, effective bullpen, a team can still win plenty of ball games with a few hiccups on the mound from weekend starters.
This Texas A&M team has shown not to have that margin of error. When a starter can go 6-7 innings and hold the opponent to a reasonable output, Coach Childress can go to Nolan Hoffman to closeout the game. While the A&M offense isn't dominating, there is enough punch at the top to generate runs, so if the pitching is solid and on schedule (meaning the starters are giving quality starts), then A&M has a good chance to win any game against any opponent. If a weekend starter struggles early and can't go into the 6th inning with a lead, that spells trouble because the bullpen simply hasn't be effective in big moments and big games other than Hoffman. Unfortunately, Hoffman can't throw four innings in every game. Somebody has to compliment him in the middle innings. That was supposed to be Kaylor Chafin and Cason Sherrod, but that hasn't worked out well to this point in the season. As a result, Coach Childress must rely on his weekend starters to give him at least 18-20 innings of quality pitching to win in the SEC, especially on the road. It all boils down to that.
What's at stake this weekend
I hate to be melo-dramatic with 12 SEC games to play, but everything is at stake this weekend. A&M appeared to be safely in the NCAA Regionals and fighting for a host spot after a sweep of Alabama. But a series loss to last place Tennessee and upcoming series with No. 1 Florida and west division leading Arkansas looming in the next two weeks, the 9-9 Aggies need some wins over a team that has struggled for the past two months. The catch is, the Bulldogs have caught fire in the last weekend and now have postseason aspirations. This is a much harder series on paper today than it was a week ago. But either way, the Aggies must find a way to scratch out two wins before returning home and hosting the best team in the nation. A poor showing and a series loss this weekend, and a limping Texas A&M could run into a buzzsaw and see the postseason become an iffy proposition. The Aggies must prevent that possibility with a series win in Starkville.
