By the Numbers: A&M heads to Hoover after clinching SEC West title

Opportunity.

That’s what is in front of Texas A&M baseball as it heads to Hoover this week on the heels of winning the SEC West title for the first time since moving to the conference 10 years ago.

The Aggies have had a tremendous run in conference play, ripping off seven consecutive series wins and closing out the regular season with a 5-1 showing against defending champion Mississippi State and an Ole Miss team that entered league play ranked No. 1 nationally.

Jim Schlossnagle & Co. have put themselves in a position to capture an opportunity that none of us could have possibly dreamed was possible even at the midway point of the season: The opportunity to earn one of the coveted top-eight national seeds.

The Aggies have had many great chances to gain a national seed throughout the years in the super regional era (1999-present) but have been rewarded top-eight recognition just twice in that span (’99 and ’16).

And there’s more than just recognition that comes along with it. Being a top-eight overall seed affords you the chance to play every regional and super-regional game in front of your home fans.

In college baseball, doing so gives you a huge leg up in your quest to reach the College World Series.

The Aggies are ranked fifth in the D1Baseball.com poll and D1B also has A&M listed as the #8 overall seed entering the SEC Tournament.

You have to go back to Kentucky in 2017 (19-11) to find the last team in the SEC to win at least 19 league games and not earn a top 8 seed. It appears that the Aggies are right on the cusp of top-eight status and a near-lock to host a regional.

But this week is about leaving no doubt. It’s about going to Hoover this week and winning a couple more ball games and not leaving anything in the hands of the selection committee.

After baseball in 2015, football in 2020, and men’s basketball this past spring, I don’t think any of us want to see A&M sputter at the 11th hour and put its fate squarely in the hands of the committee.

Leave no doubt and seize the opportunity in front of you.

Here’s a statistical look, By The Numbers, at A&M’s 2-1 series win at Ole Miss and wrapping up sole possession of the SEC West title with a lead record of 19-11…

.365+ - Batting average at the end of the regular season for not one but two Aggie hitters. Jack Moss leads the team as postseason play begins with an average of .366, while Austin Bost is hitting .365 on the season.

However, in SEC play only, Bost leads the team and ranks second in the conference with an average of .385 (up 20 points from his season total). Bost (first with 45) and Moss (second with 43) own the top two spots in the league in hits during conference play.

1.20 - Conference ERA this season for third-year sophomore Will Johnston. The southpaw has allowed just two earned runs on 11 hits in 15 innings of work and boasts over a 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against SEC hitters (five walks; 21 Ks).

Opponents are hitting just .200 against Johnston, whose confidence has seen a dramatic uptick after a rough start to the season. He’s got a true four-pitch mix with two plus breaking balls and the results have really started matching the stuff.

He’s an option Schlossnagle and Yeskie can run out there at least twice this week in Hoover or next week in a Regional, and you could give him a spot start late this weekend or next if he’s rested and if you absolutely have to have him...much you got from Kyle Thebeau in the ’07 regional or from Andrew Vinson coming out of the loser’s bracket in ’16.

Jamie Maury, TexAgs

Jack Moss leads the Aggies with an impressive .366 batting average on the season. 

Just two that come to mind. Point is that Johnston has become a “dude” all of a sudden and a key, key piece to the pitching situation throughout the remainder of the season.

#3 - A&M’s ELO rating as conference tournament week is set to begin and with less than one week until the NCAA Tournament bracket and regional host sites are announced. While the Aggies have somehow slipped a touch lately in RPI (currently #22) despite going 5-1 against the Mississippi schools the last two weeks, the lesser-known ELO rating metric continues to skyrocket.

RPI is a simple formula. It’s based on your team record combined with your overall opponents’ record and your opponents’ opponents’ record. ELO rating, created by Hungarian physics professor and chess-master Arpad Elo as a way of ranking chess players around the globe, is a much more complicated and sophisticated method of calculating relative skill levels of players and in the case of college baseball and many other sports who have adopted the rating over the years, teams —  in zero-sum games.

The top five as of today are Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, Stanford and LSU. Again, no rating system is perfect and I would not agree that those are the top five teams in college baseball in that order, but it’s another interesting metric...and one that highly favors Texas A&M over other potential top-eight national seeds.

4 - Number of A&M players with a full season OPS over .950. Dylan Rock leads the way at 1.175 (.490 OBP; .685 SLG) and actually has better numbers and leads the entire league in OPS during SEC games at 1.275 (.503 OBP; .773 SLG).

Following Rock in the OPS pecking order at the end of the regular season are Ryan Targac at 1.028 (.433 OBP; .595 SLG), Austin Bost at 1.011 (.461 OBP; .550 SLG) and Jack Moss at .958 (.430 OBP; .528 SLG). In conference play, Targac ranks fourth in the SEC in OBP at .474 and sixth in the league in slugging percentage at .728.

5 - As in the five factors...a stat that we’ve tracked for years in the old “Diamond Notes” feature and are continuing here. The five factors to success offensively and defensively/on the mound...hitting with two outs, with runners on, with runners in scoring position, getting the leadoff man on base and two-out RBIs. Here’s how A&M did on both offense and positionally in three games last week:

Offensively:
- Two outs - .333 (13-for-39)...up nine points from last week
- Runners on - .288 (17-for-59)...down eight points from last week
- Runners in scoring position - .286 (10-for-35)...down 158 points from last week
- Leadoff OBP - .310 (9-for-29)...down 190 points from last week
- Two-out RBIs - 16...up eight RBIs from last week

Defensively:
- Two outs - .273 (9-for-33)...up (opponent improvement) 23 points from last week
- Runners on - .305 (18-for-59)...down (A&M improvement) eight points from last week
- Runners in scoring position - .351 (13-for-37)...up 110 points from last week
- Leadoff OBP - .423 (11-for-26)...up 90 points from last week
- Two-out RBIs - nine...up two RBIs from last week

Jamie Maury, TexAgs

Dylan Rock homered three times in Texas A&M’s series win at Ole Miss, including a game-tying three-run bomb on Sunday.

6 - Offensive categories that saw the Aggies take a big step forward from 2021 to 2022. A&M went from .260 to .286 in batting average (+26), from .363 to .398 in OBP (+35), from .417 to .467 in SLG (+50), from 493 to 513 in hits (+20), from 343 to 387 in runs (+44) and from 304 to 361 in RBIs (+57)...and doing so in four fewer games to this point.

If you look specifically at the 30 conference games in ’21 vs. ’22, A&M is +51 in BA (.249 to .290), +68 in OBP (.330 to .398), +97 in SLG (.384 to .481), +51 in hits (260 to 311), +84 in runs (149 to 233) and +88 in RBIs (133 to 221). Simply an amazing improvement and just an incredible job of development by hitting coach Michael Earley and this staff.

7 - Home runs for the Aggies in the Ole Miss series. Dylan Rock hit three while Jack Moss, Ryan Targac, Brett Minnich, and Jordan Thompson each added one apiece.

A&M finished the regular season with 67 home runs but 44 of those came against SEC pitching (14 more than it had in league play a year ago).

9 - Major offensive categories in which A&M leads the SEC in league games at the conclusion of the regular season. The Aggies lead the league in batting average (.290...six points ahead of UT), on-base percentage (.398...16 points against UT), hits (311...16 ahead of UT), RBIs (221...six ahead of UT), runs (233...four ahead of UT), doubles (59...three ahead of UT), walks (172...23 ahead of UT) and sacrifice flies (18...two ahead of Vandy) and are tied with UT and Vandy for first in triples (seven).

12 - Major offensive categories during conference play that feature at least one Aggie among the top five hitters in the SEC. Dylan Rock, a second-team All-SEC selection, leads the league in OPS (1.275) and runs scored (42) and ranks second in OBP (.503) and SLG (.733), third in total bases (85), walks (31) tied for third in RBIs (34), sacrifice flies (three) and fourth in home runs (13).

Austin Bost leads the league in hits (45) and is second in batting average (.385), tied for third in SAC flies (three), fifth in OBP (.472), and tied for fifth in runs scored (31). Ryan Targac tops the SEC in RBIs (41), tied for third in triples (two) and fourth in OBP (.472).

Jack Moss is second in hits (43) and tied for second in doubles (10). Kole Kaler is tied for third in triples (two). Jordan Thompson is tied for third in sacrifice flies (three). Brett Minnich is fourth in walks (27).

12.38 - Combined ERA of A&M’s starting rotation vs. Ole Miss. The trio of Nathan Dettmer (four ER in 3.2 IP), Wyatt Tucker (three ER in two IP), and Ryan Prager (four ER in 2.1 IP) combined to give up 11 earned runs in just eight total innings of work, walking five and striking out seven.

They also threw five wild pitches and hit two batters. Not good at all and A&M is winning despite Dettmer recently hitting a wall and going weeks without getting much out of spots two and three in the rotation.

14 - Years since A&M’s last outright conference or division regular-season championship. The Big 12 did not utilize divisions in baseball and the Aggies’ last outright conference title (no ties) was in 2008.

Since moving to the SEC, the Aggies have never won the division. Even that great 2016 group that won the SEC Tournament title finished second in the West division to MSU (despite sweeping the Bulldogs in Starkville that year).

16 - Two-out RBIs in the Ole Miss series. The Aggies drove in 26 runs on the weekend and 16 of those came with two outs. Despite just a .310 leadoff OBP in the series, A&M hit .333 with two outs and drove home nine runs with two outs in game three alone to win the series and bring home sole possession of the SEC West title.

17 - Hits for two, three, and four in A&M’s lineup vs. Ole Miss. The trio of Jack Moss, Dylan Rock, and Austin Bost combined to go 17-for-35 (.486) in the series with four home runs, nine RBIs and 17 runs scored. Throughout the three games in Oxford, the Rebels were able to set down 2-4 in order just one time.

19 - Conference wins for the Aggies in 2022. That’s the most SEC victories since 2016 (20 wins) and just the fifth time since the turn of the century that A&M has compiled at least 19 victories in league play. The last time an SEC team won as many as 19 games and did not get a top-eight national seed was in 2017 (Kentucky went 19-11).

43 - Games in a row in which Dylan Rock has reached base safely. This dates all the way back to March 4 with a hit batsman vs. Washington State in the Frisco Classic. Need I say more? Just a ridiculously impressive streak for #27.

That’ll do it for this week! Whether you’re heading to Hoover to watch the Aggies in person or following along on TV and online, enjoy the heck out of this week watching this team continuing to compete and playing for ultra-high stakes.

Hopefully, I’ll see you around the ballpark the following weekend for the Regional round in Aggieland!