What: College World Series
Who: Bracket 1 - Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas and Notre Dame
Where: Charles Schwab Field – Omaha, Nebraska
When:
The Texas Aggie baseball team continues its improbable run to a national title at the College World Series, which starts Friday against future SEC rival Oklahoma. If Texas A&M stays in the winner’s bracket, they are just five wins from the program’s first national championship in Jim Schlossnagle’s first year as head coach of the Maroon & White.
It won’t be an easy path.
The Aggies will face arguably the hottest team in the country. The Sooners have not lost a series since dropping a series to highly ranked Oklahoma State on April 10. In postseason play, Oklahoma is humming with a 9-2 record including wins over Texas Tech, Texas, Florida (2) and #4 Virginia Tech (2).
The Longhorns went into Greensboro, and they slugged their way to a super-regional series win in a very hostile environment against national seed East Carolina. Many felt Notre Dame was worthy of a regional host spot, and the Fighting Irish proved those pundits right when they upset the #1 overall seed Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville.
Needless to say, this will be a very highly competitive bracket among four equally capable teams. Anybody can win it and advance to the national championship series starting a week from Saturday.
Here’s a summary breakdown of all four teams in the CWS Bracket 1 and the chances of each team to advance to the national championship series next weekend:
Season record vs. RPI teams
Top Pitchers
Top Hitters
Keys to winning the bracket
It’s strange to say that the leading offense in SEC play has the lowest team batting average in their CWS bracket, but the numbers are the numbers. While A&M’s competition plays in the Big 12 and the ACC, which are very good baseball conferences, it’s still not the SEC. Anyone that doubts the conference’s dominance only has to take a look and see that half of the CWS field comes from the SEC. While comparing team stats does provide some insight, take them with a grain of salt.
It also should be noted that the Aggies have the lowest fielding stats as well with a .967 percentage. Texas leads the bracket at a whopping .986 followed by Notre Dame at .980 and Oklahoma at .971.
First thing’s first: Texas A&M can’t give these quality teams extra outs or allow runners to take an extra base on a missed relay cut. The Aggies haven’t always played a clean defensive game, and they’ve found a way to survive. However, the competition is much better this week, and defensive mistakes will be costly and magnified.
The other key to winning the bracket is to win the first game against Oklahoma. The Sooners have two formidable arms, and that’s about it. If the Aggies can beat lefty Jake Bennett and send Oklahoma to the loser’s bracket, the Sooners likely don’t have the pitching to make it all the way back to the bracket championship game. A&M is a little bit deeper on the mound, but not by much. The longer the Aggies can stay in the winner’s bracket, the better the pitching matchups.
Can they win the first game? Sure they can. The hitters must be patient and earn their bases. Bennett doesn’t walk many batters, and Texas A&M has used the base-on-balls to spark big innings. Given that A&M should face strike throwers this weekend in a spacious ballpark, putting up a large crooked number could be difficult. The offense may have to manufacture runs with aggressive baserunning and timely hitting, which is something they haven’t had to do much in 2022. That also means A&M pitching must keep opposing offenses in check and minimize the big inning.
For the Aggies to advance to the championship series, this weekend needs to look a lot closer to the Louisville super regional weekend (5-4, 4-3) than it did with the offensive outbursts in the regional round. The pitching did it last weekend, and it’s reasonable to expect more of the same in Omaha.
Chance to win CWS Bracket 1: 30 percent
Season record vs. RPI teams
Top Pitchers
Top Hitters
Keys to winning the bracket
The statistics are impressive. Texas has the No. 1 offense and the No. 2 pitching in this bracket. This team was the preseason No. 1 team and has a ton of talent. You have to wonder how this squad ran off the tracks during Big 12 play and finished fifth place. Ether way, the Longhorns have found a successful formula in the postseason and find themselves back in Omaha.
Against East Carolina, the starting pitching cratered. Starters Lucas Gordon and Pete Hansen combined to surrender 11 runs in eight innings of work. Fortunately for the Longhorns, the offense carried the load scoring 20 runs in the final two games to take the super regional.
Nobody carries a heavier load than Ivan Melendez, who is the best power hitter in college baseball. His 31 home runs and 94 RBIs lead the nation and look like statistics from a full season of MLB. He’s someone opposing pitchers must pitch around, and you can’t put runners on base in front of him. But if you avoid Melendez, you certainly can’t avoid Murphy Stehly and his 19 homers and 61 RBIs. That’s Dylan Rock run production, and he’s the guy you want to face. Yikes. That’s why this lineup is so dangerous. It’s also why the success and failure of the Longhorns rest with the starting pitching that struggled last weekend. If they get two solid starts, Texas has a good chance to advance through the winner’s bracket.
Chance to win CWS Bracket 1: 25 percent
Season record vs. RPI teams
Top Pitchers
Top Hitters
Keys to winning the bracket
On paper, this Oklahoma offense has no weaknesses. They hit for average. They hit for power. They’ve stolen a mind-boggling 142 bases this season with six players logging double-digit season totals including Peyton Graham with 32. They are also patient at the plate with a bracket-leading on-base percentage of .414 led by Graham’s 65 walks alone.
Opposing teams will have a hard time slowing down this offense, but luckily for opponents, the Sooners struggle on the mound with a bracket-high 5.41 ERA. Unfortunately for Texas A&M, Oklahoma does have one good starter in Jake Bennett and an elite closer, Trevin Michael, who has a 2.94 ERA and 10 saves. But OU will be exposed if opponents can get into their shaky bullpen.
The path to winning the bracket is pretty simple here. Oklahoma must win early and stay in the winner’s bracket. That means quality outings from the top of the rotation while the offense performs as usual. Stay on schedule and Oklahoma is formidable. If pitching falters at all, their path to the finals becomes very difficult.
Chance to win CWS Bracket 1: 25 percent
Season record vs. RPI teams
Top Pitchers
Top Hitters
Keys to winning the bracket
Notre Dame comes to Omaha with the lowest team ERA in their bracket. The offense is good, but the pitching is better. John Bertrand is as good as any starting pitcher in this tournament with a 9-3 record and a 2.69 ERA. He’s struck out 107 batters compared to only 20 walks which is a very nice ratio. Austin Temple gives the Fighting Irish a strong 1-2 punch in the starting rotation. He’s 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA and opposing batters are hitting just .200 against him. His Achilles’ heel is his control. He’s walked a team-high 34 batters in just 69 innings pitched. Notre Dame also has 3-4 very solid relievers in the bullpen, which makes the Irish pitching staff the deepest in this CWS bracket.
Notre Dame’s offense is capable but not as dangerous as the other three teams in the bracket. The Irish have the lowest on-base percentage (.378) by a wide margin as a result of their low walk totals (202). They have 133 fewer walks than the Aggies (335) and 150 less than Oklahoma (352). That’s a hard number to overcome.
Still, Notre Dame will go as far as their pitching depth will take them. The longer the Fighting Irish can stay alive, their pitching depth becomes a bigger advantage and the odds of advancing through the bracket increase.
Chance to win CWS Bracket 1: 20 percent
