Around CFB: Playoff cases for six teams that could finish with one loss

The College Football Playoff starts in about six weeks, but for about six teams, they start this week.

Three FBS teams could get through championship week unbeaten. If Georgia, TCU and Ohio State or Michigan finish undefeated, they will comprise three-fourths of the four-team playoff field.

If those teams indeed finish unbeaten, the pressure is on six teams that have — or will have just one loss — to find a way into the field.

Here’s a look at those teams, their current AP ranking, their best wins and their remaining schedule. Again, this is assuming three teams will finish unbeaten.

No. 9 Clemson (9-1)

Best win(s): 51-45 over then-No. 21 Wake Forest, 30-20 over then-No. 10 NC State, 27-21 over then-No. 14 Syracuse.
Remaining schedule: vs. Miami (5-5), vs. South Carolina (6-4), vs. No. 13 North Carolina (9-1) in ACC Championship Game.
Outlook: A loss to Notre Dame severely damaged Clemson’s playoff hopes. The Tigers need Southern California to lose. They must hope an ACC championship will be enough for the CFP selection committee to give them an edge over Tennessee or the Big Ten runner-up.
Chances: Slim

No. 13 North Carolina (9-1)

Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

Behind Heisman-contender Drake Maye, the Tarheels still have an outside chance to make the College Football Playoff’s four-team field. A conference title and help are likely required.

Best win(s): 38-35 over unranked Duke, 36-34 over unranked Wake Forest
Remaining schedule: vs. Georgia Tech (4-6), vs. NC State (7-3), vs. No. 9 Clemson (9-1) in ACC Championship Game.
Outlook: Also damaged by a loss to Notre Dame. The Tar Heels’ resume is thin. So thin, in fact, an ACC championship shouldn’t be sufficient to get in over another one-loss contender.
Chances: Long-shot

No. 5 Tennessee (9-1)

Best win(s): 40-13 over then-No. 25 LSU, 52-49 over then-No. 3 Alabama
Remaining schedule: at South Carolina (6-4), at Vanderbilt (4-6).
Outlook: Volunteers should be in excellent shape. No other contender can match their resume. Their only loss was to No. 1 Georgia, but the committee may frown upon a potential rematch with Georgia. Vols must worry the selection committee will be more impressed by a conference champion than two top-ten victories.
Chances: Excellent

No. 3 Michigan (10-0)

Best wins: 41-17 over then-No. 10 Penn State
Remaining schedule: vs. Illinois (7-3), at No. 2 Ohio State (10-0).
Outlook: A competitive loss to Ohio State actually might be a positive, but the Wolverines’ overall resume cannot compare to Tennessee’s.
Chances: Decent.

No. 2 Ohio State (10-0)

Best wins: 21-10 over then-No. 5 Notre Dame, 44-31 over then-No. 13 Penn State
Remaining schedule: at Maryland (6-4), vs. No. 3 Michigan (3-0).
Outlook: Also, could be boosted with a competitive loss to Michigan. Overall, the resume isn’t bad. The victory over Notre Dame is looking better than the win over Penn State. The Buckeyes’ resume is good enough that they could get the nod over Tennessee by virtue of their “brand.” It has happened before. Twice.
Chances: Very good.

No. 7 USC (9-1)

Best wins: 17-14 over Oregon State; 30-14 over Washington State.
Remaining schedule: at No. 16 UCLA (8-2); vs. No. 18 Notre Dame (7-3); Pac-12 Championship game.
Outlook: The resume is currently unimpressive. However, closing with two — possibly three — ranked opponents will provide a much-needed boost. Trojans are counting on the selection committee to give favor to a conference champion.
Chances: Decent.

Heisman Watch (If my ballot was due today)

Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

With games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt remaining, the Heisman appears to be Hooker’s to lose.

1. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee, QB: Hooker rebounded in a big way from a difficult outing against Georgia two weeks ago. Hooker passed for 335 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 50 yards and a touchdown in a 66-24 blowout of Missouri. He’s eighth in the nation in total offense. Hooker has passed for 2,888 yards and 24 touchdowns with just two interceptions. He has rushed for 405 yards and five touchdowns.

2. Drake Maye, North Carolina, QB: The nation’s leader in total offense, Maye passed for 448 yards and three touchdowns and rushed for 71 yards and a touchdown in a 36-34 victory over Wake Forest. He has passed for 3,412 yards and 34 touchdowns with just three interceptions. He has also rushed for 584 yards and five touchdowns.

3. Blake Corum, Michigan, RB: The powerful junior has posted the nation’s third-highest rushing total with 1,349 yards. He has also scored 17 touchdowns. In a 34-3 victory over Nebraska last week, Corum gained 162 yards and a touchdown. He has exceeded 100 rushing yards in each of the last seven games. He has scored at least one touchdown in every game.

4. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State, QB: A week ago, Stroud threw five touchdown passes in a 56-14 victory over Indiana. It was the sixth game in which he has thrown at least four touchdown passes. He has thrown for 2,750 yards and 34 touchdowns with four interceptions.

5. Caleb Williams, USC, QB: Williams passed for 268 yards and three touchdowns in a 55-17 victory over Colorado. Overall, he has passed for 3,010 yards and 31 touchdowns with two interceptions. He has rushed for 283 yards and six scores.

Predicted Playoff Participants

1. Georgia: Nine of 10 victories have been by two touchdowns or more.

2. Michigan: The Wolverines seem intent on proving the old adage that defense wins championships is still true.

3. TCU: We keep waiting for the Horned Frogs to lose. They keep winning.

4. USC: November schedule and Pac-12 championship figure to be enough for Trojans to get in.

Game to Watch

No. 7 USC at No. 16 UCLA: Crosstown rivalry actually means something on the national scale again.

No. 10 Utah at No. 12 Oregon: An elimination game for the Pac-12 Championship game

No. 4 TCU at Baylor: A road trip to Waco appears to be TCU’s last real threat to finishing the regular season unbeaten.

Illinois at No. 3 Michigan: The Wolverines need a win to stay in the playoff picture. Illinois needs a win to stay in contention to finish first in the Big Ten West.

Texas at Kansas: Both are 6-4. They’ve split the last four games in the series. Kanas won last year in Austin. This series is becoming a classic.

Editor’s note: This story was written and published before Tuesday night’s release of the third College Football Playoff rankings. Rankings in this story are from the latest AP Poll.