It would take very special circumstances for a 2 loss team to make the final 4 and it would likely need to be a conference champion
Around CFB: Trio of teams needing upsets to vulture playoff spots
Perched like buzzards on a power line, they keep a close watch on highways hoping for roadkill.
The buzzards in this scenario are Ohio State, Alabama and maybe even Tennessee.
The roadkill they’re hoping for would be TCU and USC.
The highways are the Big 12 and Pac-12 championships games.
Ohio State (11-1), Alabama (10-2) and Tennessee (10-2) sit hoping for upsets and chaos, which could put them in the four-team College Football Playoff.
True, there is a quintet of Power 5 championship games, but only two really matter.
No. 1 Georgia could lose to LSU in the Southeastern Conference title game and still get in the playoff. The Bulldogs wouldn’t figure to fall out of the top four.
Michigan, which will be No. 2 in the CFP rankings released on Tuesday night, could theoretically fall to Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game but would still get by virtues of its 45-23 blowout of Ohio State, in Columbus, no less.
Clemson and North Carolina play for the ACC Championship Game but have no chance of getting into the playoff field.
That leaves the Big 12 and the Pac-12.
TCU (12-0) needs another victory over Kansas State. USC (11-1) must avenge a loss to Utah to get in.
If they all win, the playoff field is set. A loss by either TCU or USC would start an intense debate over which vulture gets to eat.
Ohio State would argue it only has one loss. Alabama and Tennessee would counter, “Yeah, and it was by 22 points at home by a team without its best player.”
Alabama point out its two losses were by a combined four points, both lost on the final play of the game on the road against ranked Tennessee and LSU. Also, Alabama would argue it should get in because… well, because it’s Alabama.
Tennessee would offer a not-so-subtle reminder that it defeated Alabama. Ohio State would also chime in and note that Alabama hasn’t beaten an opponent with more than eight victories. Both the Buckeyes and Volunteers would also point out Alabama lost to LSU, which just a week ago was dismantled by 5-7 Texas A&M.
Tennessee’s resume would include victories over Alabama and LSU. The Vols would also claim a loss to Georgia on the road could be forgiven.
Of course, Ohio State and Alabama would say the Volunteers’ blowout loss to South Carolina could not.
Of those three, Ohio State would seem to have the better resume. The Buckeyes have the advantage with only one loss. They also have a victory over (10-2) Penn State, which figures to be in the top ten. The Buckeyes also don’t have a loss to a mediocre opponent.
So, expect the Buckeyes to swoop in and eat if TCU or USC is run over.
Heisman watch (If my ballot was due today)
1. Caleb Williams, USC, QB: In a vital victory over Notre Dame, Williams passed for 232 yards and a touchdown and rushed for three touchdowns. He’ll likely be the Heisman recipient if he has a strong showing against Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Overall, Williams has passed for 3,712 yards and 34 touchdowns with just three interceptions. He has also rushed for 351 yards and 10 touchdowns.
2. Max Duggan, TCU, QB: The Horned Frogs remained unbeaten with Duggan leading the way in a 62-14 blowout of Iowa State. Duggan passed for 212 yards and three touchdowns in three quarters. He aims to boost his candidacy against Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game. On the season, Duggan has passed for 3,070 yards and 29 touchdowns and three interceptions. He has rushed for 294 yards and five touchdowns. He has also led three drives for scores in the last two minutes to pull out victories or force overtime.
3. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State, QB: Don’t blame Stroud for the Buckeyes’ 45-23 loss to Michigan. He completed 64.4 percent of his passing attempts for 349 yards and two touchdowns, though he did throw two interceptions. Stroud completed the regular season with 3,340 passing yards and 37 touchdowns and six interceptions.
4. Blake Corum, Michigan, RB: Obviously, Corum’s absence (he had six rushing yards) didn’t hurt Michigan against Ohio State. However, Corum remains the major reason the Wolverines finished the regular season unbeaten. Corum rushed for 1,463 yards and 18 touchdowns. He also caught 11 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown.
5. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee, QB: An injury derailed Hooker’s candidacy, but his outstanding season cannot be ignored. Hooker completed 69.6 percent of his passing attempts for 3,155 yards and 27 touchdowns with just two interceptions. He also rushed for 430 yards and five scores.
Predicted playoff participants
1. Georgia: The Bulldogs could lose the SEC Championship Game and still get in.
2. Michigan: Ditto for the Wolverines. Blowing out Ohio State last week likely guarantees their spot in the field.
3. TCU: Seemingly every week, TCU is expected to finally lose. Each week, they find a way to win.
4. USC: The surging Trojans need to avenge a one-point loss to Utah.
Games to watch
No. 12 Utah at No. 4 USC (Friday): The Trojans look to clinch a place in the playoffs.
No. 13 Kansas State vs. No. 3 TCU: The Horned Frogs had to rally to beat Kansas State in October. They’re hoping for less drama.
No. 11 LSU vs. No. 1 Georgia: The Southeastern Conference Championship Game isn’t nearly as interesting as anticipated. Blame A&M.
Purdue vs. No. 3 Michigan: As long as Michigan isn’t still celebrating its win over Ohio State, this should be the biggest mismatch of the Power 5 championship games.
No. 10 Clemson vs. No. 24 North Carolina: Underachieving teams stumbling vying for the ACC title. Actually, that’s a perfect representation of the ACC.
Editor’s note: This story was written and published before Tuesday night’s release of the third College Football Playoff rankings. Rankings in this story are from the latest AP Poll.