Series Preview: Aggies & Commodores battle in top-10 weekend series

Who: No. 6 Vanderbilt University (26-7, 8-4 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – Bryan-College Station, Texas
When:

Friday: 6 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 7:30 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Sunday: 1 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)

Pitching matchups

Friday: LHP Ryan Prager (6-0, 2.30 ERA) vs. RHP Bryce Cunningham (4-1, 3.64)
Saturday: RHP Tanner Jones (2-1, 5.09) vs. LHP Carter Holton (5-0, 3.27)
Sunday: LHP Justin Lamkin vs. (2-1, 3.41) vs. RHP Greysen Carter (3-1, 5.76)

Scouting Vanderbilt

On paper, these teams are evenly matched up both on the mound and at the plate. On offense, Vanderbilt strikes out less, hits for average slightly better than Texas A&M and steals twice as many bases. On the other hand, the Aggies use the long ball a lot more, hitting almost three times as many home runs as the Commodores in SEC play (24 vs. 9). That should play into the Maroon & White’s favor with a predicted strong south wind blowing out at Olsen Field for Saturday and Sunday. Any high-fly ball into the outfield will have a chance to go over the wall.

Vanderbilt is led at the plate by RJ Austin, with a team-high batting average of .344 and 35 RBI. He’s closely followed by Alan Espinal in the three-hole at .339. Matthew Polk hit cleanup last weekend at LSU, and he’s batting .318 but only has four homers and 14 RBI. It’s a strange lineup with the team leader in home runs (5) and slugging percentage (.598) — shortstop Jonathan Vastine — hitting in the nine-hole. It’s not a scary batting lineup in terms of dominant power hitters, but they don’t strike out. They put the ball in play and steal bases when they do reach safely. Ironically, they are last in the SEC in drawing walks, which is another odd stat for a crafty, contact-hitting squad. It’s a tough lineup to figure out, but to their credit, there isn’t an easy out throughout the batting order. A&M pitchers won’t have the luxury to relax at the bottom of the lineup, but then again, they won’t need to pitch around any big power hitter in the middle of the lineup, either. It’s a very atypical lineup to say the least.

Kelly Cothern, TexAgs

The top-10 battle marks the first at Blue Bell Park since the 2016 matchup between the Aggies and Commodores.

On the mound, A&M has a slight advantage in season statistics with a moderately lower ERA, but that can be deceiving. Vanderbilt actually sports a lower ERA in SEC play, with Aggie pitching registering a team ERA of 4.67 in SEC play, a full 1.5 runs per nine innings higher than their full-season averages. When it’s all said and done, the two staffs are very similar in performance. A&M has a slight advantage in starting pitching, but the Commodores are deeper in the bullpen. All three starters on the hill are juniors led by Friday night starter Bryce Cunningham who has a solid (but not Friday night dominant) 3.64 ERA and a 4-1 record. Ryan Prager should have a slight advantage in that matchup. A&M’s Tanner Jones will have his hands full with lefty Carter Holton on Saturday, who sports a perfect 5-0 record and a 3.27 ERA. Justin Lamkin has a big statistical edge over Sunday starter Greysen Carter and his 5.76 ERA.

However, even if A&M’s potent bats can do some early damage against Commodore starting pitching, they have a stout bullpen that Tim Corbin will go to in the series. Another interesting twist for Vanderbilt is the young bullpen that has sparkled thus far in 2024. They have no fewer than five true freshman arms they heavily rely on in the bullpen, and they’ve been very good to date, led by Ryan Ginther (0.66 ERA, 4 saves), Ethan McElvain (2.82 ERA) and Brennan Seiber (3.38 ERA, 4 saves). Yes, they are all true freshmen. Will they get rattled immersed in the Olsen Field environment this weekend? Well, they fared well in Baton Rouge last week when the Commodores won the series, so they are battle-tested on the road. Overall, Vanderbilt has struggled on the road in SEC play, going 2-4 after being swept by a Gamecock team that the Aggies beat twice in Columbia last weekend.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

The biggest storyline for A&M this weekend is pitching. Despite being one of the top pitching staffs in the SEC statistically, there’s certainly room for improvement, and it starts with getting more than six innings combined from starters Tanner Jones and Justin Lamkin. Jones throws a lot of pitches in his outings, but he needs to give the team a solid five innings of work this weekend going up against the No. 6 team in the country with a thin bullpen. Lamkin had one of his worst starts of the year last Sunday, surrendering five runs on six hits and two walks in just 3.1 innings of action. He had good stuff, striking out five, but he was inconsistent and hung several breaking pitches over the plate. A potential top-eight national seed and a serious contender to reach Omaha must have more length from its starters, especially when Jim Schlossnagle is still trying to find some consistency from his relievers after Evan Aschenbeck. The A&M staff currently lacks the depth needed for an elite-level bullpen.

After a couple of shaky outings the past two weeks, Shane Sdao had arguably his most dominant appearance against South Carolina on Saturday, blanking the Gamecocks in 4.1 innings of relief with very little trouble in the process. If the Aggies can get Sdao to be that guy this weekend, the odds of winning this huge top-10 series go up significantly. Chris Cortez had one of his best outings of the year on Tuesday in the come-from-behind win over UTSA. If he can repeat that performance consistently, now we’re talking about a filthy bullpen. A&M has to see the good performances every week, not every two to three weeks, sandwiched by poor performances. The same can be said of Brad Rudis and Josh Stewart. If you can count on the good version of these guys, then this can be an elite pitching staff on a championship team. Now that we’re over halfway through the season, that consistency needs to develop now. No better time than a critical top-10 weekend showdown.

At the plate, the middle of the lineup is evolving into one of the best in the SEC. All year, the Aggies have lived off the big three of Gavin Grahovac, Jace LaViolette and Braden Montgomery, but the recent emergence of Jackson Appel and Hayden Schott has opposing pitchers really struggling to get through an extremely difficult and dangerous top seven in the order.

Appel had the heroics on Tuesday with the three home runs, but his hitting has been on the rise for several weeks now. He’s a top-10 batter in the SEC with a .358 batting average and six homers. Schott has seen his average rise over 50 points recently to .326 and has more RBI (36) than LaViolette (33). Ted Burton has walked a team-leading 34 times with an on-base percentage of .493. In fact, six of the nine starters are hitting above .300, and LaViolette is not one of those six. The centerfielder is having a solid year at the plate with 14 bombs, but the explosive numbers have been tailing off in recent weeks. He’s still getting on base, but he’s not driving in the runs he did to start the season, and his long ball pace has slowed down significantly. I say that because if he can limit the pop-ups and shallow fly balls and get back to his hot swing in February and early March, this will be the most dangerous lineup in the SEC if not college baseball.

Now, Vanderbilt doesn’t walk a lot of batters, so the Aggies will have to earn their way on the base paths. By the same token, A&M pitching can’t give up too many free passes and then let the Gamecock base runners use their speed to get into scoring position. This isn’t a power-hitting team, so the pitchers should be able to challenge Vanderbilt batters without a lot of balls leaving the yard, although that brisk south wind could make things interesting for both teams on Saturday and Sunday.

What’s at stake this weekend

The Aggies are in a comfortable spot at the moment. They aren’t backed into a corner where this weekend is a “must-win” situation, so they should pay loose. The weekend won’t be a disaster if the Commodores win the series because the Aggies will still be in a position to finish near the top of the SEC standings. However, this team has bigger goals, and a national seed is very much in their sights. A series win over No. 6 Vanderbilt will certainly cement A&M’s position to eventually grab a national seed and host both the regional and super regional rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

The series is also at home, and good teams must defend their home turf in the SEC. This will be the toughest challenge on the schedule until the season finale against the No. 1 Razorbacks in mid-May. Get through this weekend winning a pair, and you really like the Aggies’ chances to finish in second place in the SEC West division and possibly contend for the division title against the Hogs in that last series of the SEC regular season.

If A&M can win the series this weekend, every major goal is still achievable, including a national seed and an overall No. 1 seed. Before we get too far down that postseason road, the team simply needs to play well against elite competition and establish themselves as one of the top teams in college baseball.