Psych sheet is up.

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/tam/sports/m-swim/auto_pdf/2010Big12Champs_psych.pdf

Don't know who's on the A and B squad yet, but at least we'll know who's swimming what at the top. Hersey vs. Wilkinson in the 200 IM should be a great race, I was hoping we'd get to see it.

Hate to burst your bubble, but we really wont know what Hersey is for sure swimming until we get to the meet. Shes entered in 200-400im, and 100-200fly. Granted the 4im and 100fly are back to back, and they have some help for her in the im, but nothing is for sure until the meet starts.

Yeah, I hadn't really looked through them yet, but just noticed that. She's also entered into the 100 and 200 backstrokes.

Gotta love the stack of Aggies behind Julia in the 2im. Brackin would be crazy not to swim Hersey there in my opinion, but who knows what shell do.

I anticipate a Hersey-Wilkinson showdown in the 200 IM.

Like I said on the other thread, I see Hersey doing 200IM/100 fly/200 fly and Gingrich doing 500 free/400 IM/1650. This is the 'easiest' way for them to maximize the amount of points they can score. If they double them up in any events, it hurts their potential to score points. A&M sits behind these two (excluding the 500 free and 200 IM) ready to snap up a win (and may anyway) in all six events should they try to double up. Each time they double up, and thereby knock themselves off points, it is a potential six point swing the Aggies' way.

I am SOOOOO looking forward to this week and have been for a long time. This will be a true battle between two heavyweights.

[This message has been edited by Look Out Below (edited 2/22/2010 9:32a).]

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She's also entered into the 100 and 200 backstrokes.

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ha I completely missed that. mixes things up even more

Brackin is making a big mistake if she enters Hersey in either backstroke. You heard it here first.

texagg that's kinda what I was thinking. Hersey finishing first or second would knock at least 5 scoring Aggies down a rung. If she knocked off Wilkinson, there would be a lot more points gone. If Hersey doesn't swim that, they're going to get creamed in that event, which is a suck way to start off the meet. I'm not sure that Bispo is actually going to swim it, which means they're relying on Mcelhany and Sogar to score the 200 IM points?

That could mean leaving A&M with a triple point (100+) event. That would be ouch, big time for the horns.

Does it annoy anyone else that t.u. didn't enter seed points for their divers? Not that seed points make a huge difference, but just on general principles that it's such a sip thing to do?

Gotta agree with you LOB, just wanted to point out the unknown possibilities.

On the guys side, Texas' A squad is a little easier to guess figure out this year, at least compared to last year. Gotta wonder how much they will come down for conference this year. As usual itll probably be the top dog NCAA guys with little rest, and the rest all out tapered. I know they will all still be fast, but it only takes a few guys to be "off" for an Aggie to sneak up in there.

I'd be stunned if Bispo didn't swim 50/100/200 free. They'll put Hersey in the 200 IM and after that (hopefully) take their lumps. You have to remember they have the same kind of advantage over A&M in the breaststrokes due to their depth. There are going to be a few events where they will get stung and the IM's could easily be those events (outside of their top entry of course).

I'm betting Texas puts Maren Taylor on all three boards (she is very good) and either Lauren Caldwell (also pretty good) on all three or Caldwell on two boards and another girl on one. I could be wrong but I do not think there is any way they use two spots on diving.

I think events 25 and 27 could be a critical point of the meet, if it's going to be as close as everyone here thinks it will. In the 100 breaststroke, Texas is going to put some hurt on us (I think most of those girls are pretty firm to swim that event). In the 100 backstroke, we have a huge group sitting 12-16, and if those girls can move up a little, we can return the favor. From a momentum standpoint, this could be the changing point of the meet. Right in the middle, could be big changes in the scores.

We did find out for sure that the educated guesses about Alia in the IM was right, she's only listed in 3 events. Julia is listed in the 100/200, 100 back, 200 IM. I can't come up with a legit. reason for her to swim any one versus the other. I think she's in the 100 back, and the 200 free she and Heiss are looking very good to go 1-2, which might be a consideration. The 100 free can be unpredictable though, and Hersey will be lurking in the IM.

Here's a thought, and call me crazy but, any chance Julia doesnt swim the IM? Since we have so many other girls behind her who will score pretty big points too?

Yeah I thought about that too, and almost said it. And for event-by-event scoring, we'd still win that event as a group.

But keeping Hersey out of that first place spot is a huge swing, 6 points. I'm not sure anyone else is going to. If they predicted that Hersey wasn't swimming it, I think there's no way she'd swim it. But just to hang on to those points...

If they're looking to win as many events as possible and get all of those bonus points, then I guess she's gotta sit the 200 free, right?

ya if you use that reasoning then the 2free is the one she sits. cuz if she sits the 100 back, a sip will probably win. and same with the 100free. So three of Julias events will most likely be won by a sip if she doesnt swim it. And even still theres Bispo waiting in the 2free to give it a shot. So its pretty much gonna be a crap shoot to figure out who swims what. Good luck with that Steve-o haha

Julia has always swam 200 IM, 100 back, 100 free that I remember (maybe there was a 200 back in there once upon a time; memory is failing me). She has always been damn good at all three at this meet. No sense in changing it up. You also don't want Heiss and Wilkinson knocking each other off points (as they would in the 200 free). The name of the game is keeping the 'big dogs' away from each other as much as you possibly can. The one exception is putting Atkinson in the 200 IM with Wilkinson as Atkinson's chance for third there (I'm assuming Hersey is there too) is much better (in my opinion at least) than her chances in the 50 free.

Wilkinson is a threat to win the NCAA title in the 100 free. If it was the 101 freestyle, she would already have an NCAA title in it (2008). There is absolutely no way she doesn't swim that race.

[This message has been edited by Look Out Below (edited 2/22/2010 10:15a).]

Well good, that's settled then. Glad we can all agree on what Julia will swim.

I meant that in all seriousness by the way. No need for anyone to get all snippy

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If it was the 101 freestyle, she would already have an NCAA title in it

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Awesome statement haha

Maybe that's why she sat out last season. A&M was hosting the meet, which means it would've probably been a 99 free....


OOOOh dang, recsports lifeguards pool setup fail joke. Haven't had one of those in a while.

Anyone else notice the lack of cuts this year? Especially on the boys side. I don't specifically remember previous years, but seeing events with only 1 B-cut is ridiculous, and looking through the NCAA top times, there's not a whole lot of A-cuts period.

If I was a guy, I would feel very comfortable even with a low B-cut.

Edit: I'm referring to the country in general, not just A&M...

[This message has been edited by AGBlastoff (edited 2/22/2010 10:12a).]

Did they lower the cuts again this year? If not, that is pretty interesting.

They actually raised them. Last year, in the 50 free, the B cut was 20.02. This year, it's 20.31

Wow, that is interesting. They very, very rarely make the cuts slower. I remember one year they slowed them up in a single event but that's it really.

Any ideas on what guys will make the meet?

Julia wants to swim 200 free at NCAAs, right? I thought that is what she said in the Swimming World interview. She has a fast B cut now but it might be a gamble for her to not go faster.

Even if Julia and Heiss swim it - there is a good chance to blunt Bispo in that event. On that day, Julia has the 400 MR, 200 free, and 100 back. I would think that is manageable for her.

I can't see Hersey swimming 400 IM with 100 fly the next event. Hersey has proven she is extremely capable of multiple events, but the 400 IM is way too hard to race before a race Hersey needs to win (100 fly).

The tu men are gonna have to race to get their cuts. Only Walters has a B cut in 200 free.

I don't see Bispo in the 200 IM. She has 50 free right after that. I think tu will hope for a big swim from McElhany and Sogar instead.

Spicewood - All you need to do is make NCAA's in ANY event and then you are automatically in any race that you have a B cut for; since it looks like Julia's 100 free time is easily going to hold up, she can now swim anything she has a B cut in (up to three races) -- and again, I'd be stunned if she didn't swim 100 back at Big 12. She is a three-time BIg 12 champion in the race.

I somewhat agree on the 400IM/100 fly double...I think Hersey has the talent to do it but again she would be knocking Gingrich off points because Gingrich very likely will swim it.

Right, and another caveat to this is that the NCAA cuts off qualifiers at a certain number of SWIMMERS, not a certain number of places in an event. They basically line up the top B-cut times from all the events, and go top time from event A, then event B, then event C, then event ...XYZ, then next best event A, B C, etc, then next best, until they hit the number of swimmers they want.

I don't have data to back it up, but it seems as though in the NCAA in general, there are more women who have qualifying times in more events, and therefore you can probably be further down the individual event rankings and still make the meet. There's more likely to be more people ranked ahead of you who have swum qualifying times in many events. I think this really allows women's coaches to put more focus on winning the conference meet than getting people NCAA qualifying times at the bottom end of their roster.

LOB - I forgot about that. Thanks.

But I still can't see Julia not swimming the 400 MR, 200 free, and 100 back that day. Just for points reasons - if Wilkinson and Heiss can combine for 1-2, then Bispo is 3rd.

But I'm sure Bultman will make a better call than I can!

BTW - I would not be surprised if Hersey swims 200 back. It is the first event of the day and a long break before 200 fly. Riefenstahl has not been all that impressive this year and seems unlikely to go the 1:51-1:52 it will take to win.

[This message has been edited by SpicewoodAg (edited 2/22/2010 12:48p).]

I wonder if it would be too big of a risk that Hersey can't beat Heiss. With a swimmer like her, if you don't get 3 individual wins out of her, it's a huge blow in a meet this close.

Ain't that the truth about Bultman. With all of the back and forth and "what if this and that" we do on here, imagine what he who actually knows what he's doing with training/what condition his swimmers are in/actually has to make the decision and have the pressure on him to win goes through.

At some point, he's just gotta decide what his best guess is for t.u.'s swimmers, try to play off of that, and be satisfied with the fact that he really won't know what they're going to swim until the bus rolls in on Thursday. That's gotta be a stressful moment.

What's the deadline for the coaches to decide who swims what? I mean, hypothetically, could Bultman see that Hersey swims the 200 IM at the beginning of the meet, then adjust his later plans knowing that she probably won't swim the 400 IM, or 200 back, or whatever whatever then? Or is there a deadline to nail it down (regardless of whether they make it public then or not)?

Totally agree on your first point Blastoff...Why put Hersey in the 200 back when there are events that would be 'easier' to win than vs. someone who has a top 3 finish at NCAA's and top 5 finish at Olympic Trials in the event.

A and B teams have to be decided by Wednesday afternoon...I'm not 100% sure but I think you can switch people around in events day to day. Once it's public, it's a done deal.

Spicewood -- Since you seem dead set on her swimming the 200 free and 100 back, what event would you have her pull out of? Doing 200 IM/100 back/100 free is a much easier schedule and she's just as capable of winning those three as she would be the 200 free. If she wins the 200 IM, she knocks Hersey off more points than Bispo in the 200 free; if she wins the 100 free, she knocks Bispo off more points than she would doubling with Heiss in the 200 free.

[This message has been edited by Look Out Below (edited 2/22/2010 2:10p).]

LOB - Why is it necessary for JW to eliminate an event?

Possible JW schedule:

Wed:
200 medley relay (?)
(diving break)
800 free relay

Thu:
200 Free relay
200 IM

Fri:
400 medley relay
(35 min rest after mens relay)
200 free
100 back

Sat:
100 free
400 free relay

Because you can only swim three individual events and four relays or two individual events and all five relays...

[This message has been edited by Look Out Below (edited 2/22/2010 2:55p).]

I've heard some people beef the system, saying that they should allow Phelpsian performances of 8 or 9 events. But that would make the team aspect meaningless, which is what all college sports are tailored around. Otherwise, they'd just be like USS meets, which are boring as hell.

[This message has been edited by gobluwolverine (edited 2/22/2010 3:17p).]

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Why is it necessary for JW to eliminate an event?

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fail

and blu I'm with you, USS meets blow, the college system is a good one. More exciting and team oriented.

[This message has been edited by BigPapaB (edited 2/22/2010 3:57p).]

Spice, relays are at the end of each session at conference (except Wednesday). It changes up at NCs when they eliminate the Wednesday session, and spread the 800FR/200MR out between Thurs/Fri sessions, putting one relay at the beginning and one at the end of each session.

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USS meets blow, the college system is a good one. More exciting and team oriented

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took the words right out of my mouth. I've been going to a few of my sisters USS meets, and man do they suck compared to a college meet (dual, invite, or championship). I feel sorry for my parents who had to sit through them all when I was growing up