Psych Sheet

http://usaswimming.org/_Rainbow/Documents/77ed8dd0-7905-4cb8-b609-d3226b5ade1a/2012%20Olympic%20Trials%20Psych%20Sheet.pdf

Adams, C - 4IM, 4Fr, 2Fl
Adams, A - 4IM, 8Fr
Benjamin - 1Fr, 2Fr
Bosma - 1Fl, 1Fr, 50Fr
Conner - 4IM, 2Bk
Escobedo - 1Bk, 2Bk
Hairston - 1Bk
Heller - 1Bk
Henry - 4IM, 4Fr, 2Fr, 2Fl, 8Fr
Larson - 1Br, 2Br
Latone - 1Bk, 2Fr, 2Bk
McElhany - 1Fl, 2IM, 2Fl, 1Fr, 50Fr
McLaine - 4Fr, 2Fr, 8Fr
Neubert - 1Fl
Regone - 50Fr
Rehring - 2Fl

Ariens - 1Bk

Camille has a very solid chance to make it in the 200 fly. She is seeded first and has beaten Hersey twice in a row. A truly good 400 IM could also do it for her.

Sarah Henry might make finals and/or semis in multiple events.

Breeja could finish 3rd in the 100 breast. I just have a hard time imagining her beating Soni or Hardy, who have times 2-3 secs better. Breeja's NCAA time converts to a 1:06low and I'd guess both Soni and Hardy will go 1:05 or better. But we haven't seen a tapered LCM race for Breeja so maybe she'll have an explosive swim. Breeja should make semis or finals in the 200.

Several others seem like making the semis is possible.

McElhany - 100 fly, 200 fly
McLaine - 800 free
Latone - 200 back

This has to be the best showing by Aggie swimmers ever.

Anything 400 & up is just heats and Finals. Only semis for 200 & below.

Anybody know why Dalton isn't going?

I don't know if this is the reason, but I think Dalton is focusing on qualifying for WUG's, which are being picked from US Open. Maybe he thought it wasn't worth the trip if he wasn't going to taper?

Breeja's opening in the 100 breast might be that Hardy has choked in the past. I too, don't see it happening, but that's the only reason it's not a Soni-Hardy 1-2 lock.

Events for the incoming class:

Claire Brandt - 2Bk, 50Fr
Katherine Huff - 1Fr, 50Fr
Romy Landeck - 1Br, 2IM, 2Br
Melanie McClure - 2Bk
Meredith Oliver - 4IM, 2IM

www.swimswam.com has a pick'em contest for OTs. I entered my picks this morning. If they send us our scores after Trials are finished - lets see who does the best!

quote:

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I too, don't see it happening, but that's the only reason it's not a Soni-Hardy 1-2 lock.

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Don't forget Annie Chandler. Hardy is inconsistent.

Chandler went 1:07.9 last October and nothing special since. Her best time in 2012 is a 1:09.01 (June). I just don't see her dropping 3 seconds at OTs.

Hardy occasionally overswims her races but she has four 1:06s this season (since Sept) and eight swims under 1:08. This season I think she has raced often, and has been almost as consistent as Soni. She and Soni have 16 of the 20 fastest 100 BR times this season in the USA Swimming database. Jillian Tyler has two, Chandler has her 1:07.9 and Efimova Yuliva (??) has the other.

So then what would giver her a worse chance than Larson? SCY is practically a different sport than LCM (BR may be the least affected because of the lack of dolphin kicks). However, Larson was unable to compete at the national meet last summer. Who knows how fast she can go in a different setting?

Chandler vs. Larson?

The reason I think Larson beats her is that Larson is younger and still on an improvement trajectory. Larson's most recent time is 0.2 secs from Chandler's 1:07.9 last fall. And Chandler has been slower recently. Larson has far less LCM experience, which to me says that she has the most room to improve. Finally everything I read about Chandler shows that she has never taken her SCY skill to LCM. She swam a 1:08.80 in the 2008 trials.

I agree LCM breaststroke is almost a different event. The loss of two turns reduces the impact of great walls. We don't know yet how good Larson can be in LCM.

Spice - Yulia Efimova is a Russian breaststroker who spends a few months here-and-there training at USC. Medal contender in London.

If Chandler hasn't made her yards to meters switch well yet, what makes anyone think she will beat Larson (who is the American record holder)? ...and I totally agree on Larson being a huge wildcard here. No one knows what she'll do because she didn't swim tapered last summer. I'd give the edge to Soni and Hardy at this point, but don't count Breeja out by any stretch of the imagination.

Cammile has a great opportunity to do something no A&M swimmer has ever done -- win an event at Trials and qualify for an individual race for the Olympics. I hope she can shut out all the hype and focus on swimming her race to the best of her ability. In the end you've got to step up and prove you want it more than everyone else. We all know the talent and the preparation is going to be there in her corner.

LOB - I agree 100%. Breeja could have an explosive drop at OTs and make it. Not great odds, but she has two 1:08lows this year unrested. A big drop to 1:05.5 might do it. (I don't think she has shown huge drops historically in SCY, but her experience in LCM is very short).

Camille's 2:06 in January (I watched this race) was outstanding and it just seems should ought to have a 2:04 in her. But some distance oriented swimmers like her don't drop much with a taper.

I just want to hear Rowdy Gaines say "and in lane 4 from Texas A&M we have Camille Adams"


[This message has been edited by SpicewoodAg (edited 6/21/2012 4:49p).]

Is this the largest group of A&M swimmers to go to trial?

I think Maria Sommers is going too.

Sommer and Megan Onstott are both on the Psych Sheet, forgot to include them on my original post.

FWIW, Cammile dropped 2 seconds in the fly and 3 seconds in the IM from Big 12's to NCAA's this year with a taper so she's shown the ability drop with rest.

Maria is on the psych sheet, but hasn't raced in almost a year...curious.

[This message has been edited by AGBlastoff (edited 6/22/2012 9:42a).]

AGblastoff - Just want to say it was good of you guys to cover the diving OTs. I watch some of the TV coverage of OTs (until I have to get to bed). I think this is the first time diving OTs have been televised. We know several of the divers competing and it is impressive to watch some of them. Was really disappointed that the Cook/Loukas synchro pair didn't win - they are both from the Woodlands and at 17 Cook is a rising star. That pair won all five rounds last night but couldn't quite make up the deficit from semis.

No prob. Glad to do it.

Yeah, that women's final was awesome to watch. Comes down to such hairs and the whims of a judge for a trip to the Olympics...brutal.

Cool article on Ryan Lochte:

http://espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=ryanvsryan

I thought the article made Lochte look childish and foolish. I get wanting a balance between swimming and life, but driving 175mph and throwing fireworks at your roommates? That's not being unique, that's stereotypical D-U-M-B Jock nonsense.

I disagree. Lochte is a free spirit compared to some of the buttoned up athletes. He likes cars. I like that. He may be a bit immature, but it is no less silly than Phelps smoking weed and hanging out with strippers in Las Vegas.

There's a wide spectrum from buttoned-down athlete to the image Lochte cultivates. I think he could be just as interesting and quotable and marketable without being reckless in certain areas. We'll agree to disagree.

halco87 - yup (agree to disagree)

I suppose we both agree he is a baller when it comes to racing?

Yeah, I don't think going 175 down a public road is very smart. In fact, I think it's downright stupid. Sooner or later, it'll probably catch up to him. But, that's his life and personal decision and I could care less about it.

The part that stood out to me on that article was where, even though all the other U of F athletes were off for the day, he was working hard. on a Sunday....

Seems a lot of top swimmers have cut down on the mileage/# of pracs in a day and switched to less but at a MUCH higher intensity. (terrible idea for kids, great for anyone 20yrs+) Just interesting he's not putting a rest day in the cycle.

No doubt he is a helluva an athlete and competitor.

Aquabullet - I agree a number of elite swimmers are training a bit less distance these days, but I don't think someone who competes in 400IM cuts down much. That article referenced the spring, and Lochte was probably in the middle of his heaviest training. He hasn't been fast all year so the Trials should be his first rested meet in a long time.

Predictions for today's events?

I predict Phelps and Lochte make the team in the 400 IM

Prelims here.

http://www.usaswimming.org/DesktopDefault.aspx?TabId=2129&Alias=Rainbow&Lang=en

LOB - going out on a limb with that prediction, huh?

What time did Tyler Clary get in the 400 IM this morning?

Live timing

May have to download the Java app. By heat, or "live" (look for the button on the bottom right)

McElhany into semis with a best time 58.89. 7th fastest. Vollmer super-fast with a US Open record 56.69.

Caroline beat Tran, the NCAA champ. Practically everyone ahead of her has been to an Olympics already. She even beat the 2008 Trials champ by a spot. Great start.