Just about the whole state is covered in clouds at the moment.

Today is a great day to yell at clouds in south Texas. Go Starship!!! https://t.co/nJ7bJR3yQG

— Kiko Dontchev (@TurkeyBeaver) May 21, 2026

TyHolden said:

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Today the day?

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It's MF'n LAUNCH DAY!!

What is Brad Ferguson's point?

Today is not terrible weather wise but tomorrow is way way better, especially around 6pm.

Still around 50/50 weather according to SpaceX

Lots of "new" in this launch. Word on the street is another delay for today...they can't launch over Memorial Day weekend, so don't be surprised if we go into next week.

SpaceX market cap too high given near term opportunity and Tesla market cap too low given near term opportunity. That Tesla investors should wait to approve a merger with SpaceX to ensure they get full value of that opportunity, because it will be the last time their vote will be taken for any reason. At least for the foreseeable future.

Point of the post was more so to show how much control Musk would have over a ~$3.5 trillion entity post merger. I think that merger is an inevitability for that reason and that investors are going to be happy with the outcome of that merger in the long run and it's in some sense an attempt to time/predict the market. Have no idea what SpaceX's stock does if they show re-use without yet proving revenue growth. Markets front run opportunity and it's entirely possible SpaceX is worth even more in a year.


Countering view is SpaceX just pays a premium to get the merger over with faster/merge on a 50-50 ownership basis between Tesla investors and SpaceX investors with Musk retaining his super voting shares and having >50% voting power in the newly combined entity.

https://t.co/S5HzItv8oB

— AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 (@TeslaBoomerMama) April 20, 2026

scottimus said:

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Lots of "new" in this launch. Word on the street is another delay for today...they can't launch over Memorial Day weekend, so don't be surprised if we go into next week.

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They are cleared for a launch tomorrow starting at 5:30 if we don't go today.

Correct. Just some of the murmurings I have heard from some friends. Looking at next week already.

Just so many new systems coming into play.

I expect it to go today or tomorrow. But a small part of me hopes it gets delayed past Memorial Day because my kids will be done with school tomorrow and I'll drag them down there and watch it from the beach.

normaleagle05 said:

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I expect it to go today or tomorrow. But a small part of me hopes it gets delayed past Memorial Day because my kids will be done with school tomorrow and I'll drag them down there and watch it from the beach.

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Bring some fishing poles, and I will take you to our spot on the jetties to fish and wait out the line to leave!

Deal, if it goes that way.

I hold some TSLA stock but I am concerned about diving into SpaceX immediately. I could see it doing what "Truth Social" did after the IPO, as the cash flow for that valuation just won't be there. Jumping immediately into SpaceX stock would seem wildly speculative, to me, even though I want to do it, emotionally. They are also bound to suffer more rocket launch setbacks (and disclosures as to spending on R&D etc. once public).

But I didn't understand the underlying cash flow financials of early MSFT/AMZN/Google/Nvidia either so no one should listen to me, respectfully.

hph6203 said:

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SpaceX market cap too high given near term opportunity and Tesla market cap too low given near term opportunity. That Tesla investors should wait to approve a merger with SpaceX to ensure they get full value of that opportunity, because it will be the last time their vote will be taken for any reason. At least for the foreseeable future.

Point of the post was more so to show how much control Musk would have over a ~$3.5 trillion entity post merger. I think that merger is an inevitability for that reason and that investors are going to be happy with the outcome of that merger in the long run and it's in some sense an attempt to time/predict the market. Have no idea what SpaceX's stock does if they show re-use without yet proving revenue growth. Markets front run opportunity and it's entirely possible SpaceX is worth even more in a year.


Countering view is SpaceX just pays a premium to get the merger over with faster/merge on a 50-50 ownership basis between Tesla investors and SpaceX investors with Musk retaining his super voting shares and having >50% voting power in the newly combined entity.

https://t.co/S5HzItv8oB

— AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 (@TeslaBoomerMama) April 20, 2026

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There is a counter example and that is General Electric splitting into different entities which resulted in a large increase in the combined market cap.

I'm off the coast of corpus and wish these clouds would go away. Winds were forecast to be out of the ESE but they've been blowing out of the NNW all morning. There are lines of thunderstorms coming over and over throughout the next several days. Hopefully they are able to launch and this cloud cover goes away so I can see it.

Gut says they can sustain a ~$1T market cap off current growth of Starlink and Starlink mobile services and Falcon as the launch vehicle, but for a $2T valuation they have to solve Starship reusability and prove orbital data centers are cost competitive or minimally cost + cost of time competitive with terrestrial data centers. Just a guess, but think they maintain a $2T valuation for ~1 year and then fall into the $1-1.5T valuation if they have yet to re-fly a Starship. Small amount of float on their stock and boosts from index buying will have it elevated for ~6 months to a year. Just a guess.

I might have to go tomorrow as my kids last day was today

hph6203 said:

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Gut says they can sustain a ~$1T market cap off current growth of Starlink and Starlink mobile services and Falcon as the launch vehicle, but for a $2T valuation they have to solve Starship reusability and prove orbital data centers are cost competitive or minimally cost + cost of time competitive with terrestrial data centers. Just a guess, but think they maintain a $2T valuation for ~1 year and then fall into the $1-1.5T valuation if they have yet to re-fly a Starship. Small amount of float on their stock and boosts from index buying will have it elevated for ~6 months to a year. Just a guess.

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Between lowering launch costs and Starlink, SpaceX is the "commercialization of space" that has been talked about for decades. That part of the business will obviously thrive.

However when it comes to moon rockets or later going to Mars, I don't really see the commercialization. It's just how much is the government willing to spend on it. Any potential commercialization is a long, long way off. Maybe your grandkids will make a killing on the stock you buy next month.

SpaceX has sent out emails for Flight 12!! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ibKSPHBf9x

— jacobruh 🚀 (@jrxcket) May 21, 2026

All three marine assets are staging for the flight now pic.twitter.com/0ZKQ7vfrdB

— TheSpaceEngineer (@mcrs987) May 21, 2026

Hoping for clear skies and favorable winds today. Go Starship Flight 12, debuting V3 booster and ship!

— Shana Diez (@ShanaDiez) May 21, 2026

Shana Diez Director of Starship Flight Reliability at SpaceX

I figure if they were trying to catch the booster they likely would have tighter weather tolerances.

NSF launch stream is live. Still looking good for launch so far.

SpaceX Starship Flight 12 - LAUNCH STREAM

launch time changed to 6pm

Space X broadcast says it is starting at 5:13 PM on X link

Watch Starship's twelfth flight test https://t.co/wxna6dy4Lh

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) May 21, 2026

Pushed back to 6:30 central. Launch window is down to 30 minutes.

The NASA administrator flies to go see the Starship launch in a fighter jet. Europe could never.

hph6203 said:

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The NASA administrator flies to go see the Starship launch in a fighter jet. Europe could never.

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Maybe why the launch was delayed which is kind of funny.

Go for prop load now and the skies are clearing out even more now.

EDIT ha he has clarified he is in DC for the launch

hph6203 said:

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The NASA administrator flies to go see the Starship launch in a fighter jet. Europe could never.

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Did Rook take one of his own fleet down there?

Prop loading.

Dude is pretty calm for 8 ft seas.

SpaceX's future business path for growth are data centers in orbit. Just announced today they're building a solar production facility outside of Austin with 10 GW of capacity. Musk's dictate to SpaceX is to scale to 100 GW of solar capacity. They're aiming at a 1 TW compute capacity chip fabrication facility. They just leased 300 MW of compute to Anthropic at $1.25 billion/mo.

If they're successful at orbital data centers they will make any funding available from the government look like a hedge fund manager's wife's Etsy page.

The Sun said:

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hph6203 said:

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The NASA administrator flies to go see the Starship launch in a fighter jet. Europe could never.

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Did Rook take one of his own fleet down there?

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Plane down there, but he wasn't in it.

Nicki Minaj? SpaceX broadcasts have jumped the shark.

Also, Elon, you dawg.