Targeting Sunday, October 13 for Starship’s fifth flight test. A 30-minute launch window opens at 7:00 a.m. CT → https://t.co/hibmw2lVv1 pic.twitter.com/3mZeH09eyl

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 12, 2024

Go play starship the game! Pretty well done 8-bit sim.

https://starshipthegame.spacex.com/

Quite the eventful 2 days for SpaceX coming up:

Sunday
- Starship launch and Mechzilla catch attempt
- Dragon return from ISS

Monday
- Falcon Heavy launch

So. What are the chances of:

A successful catch?

A muffed catch that whacks an arm and RUDs?

A landing that comes in so hot that the chopsticks have no chance, it smokes the tower, launch platform and takes out the tank farm?

I'll go on record.

10% successful catch
20% partial catch but B12 gets mangled
50% an unsuccessful catch resulting in RUD at the tower
20% something bad approaching the level of a tower destruction and loss of the tank farm.

The towers themselves are very overengineered. The infrastructure the towers contain would be what gets taken out, but there's just not that much potential energy to do an incredible amount of damage unless none of the engines fire, and they'll have data during the initial flight period to call for a catch attempt or not.

Taking out the arms wouldn't be a big deal since they're going to replace them anyway.

Mathguy64 said:

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So. What are the chances of:

A successful catch?

A muffed catch that whacks an arm and RUDs?

A landing that comes in so hot that the chopsticks have no chance, it smokes the tower, launch platform and takes out the tank farm?

---

I think I'll give the catch a 70% chance of working perfectly

Keep in mind (assuming they do this like F9), it'll target a position offshore and only swoop in towards the tower if everything is perfect

They'll make the call before the boost back burn, for this launch it's a manual call to go for the catch. I would imagine that call will be made public, so we'll know during the broadcast if they're going for the catch or not.

10% abort and land in Gulf
80% success
10% landing mishap

70% successful catch
30% FTS before even getting close to the tower

Gonna be a day of cognitive dissonance for millions of people tomorrow if they succeed. They're banking on failure forever, but tomorrow is just another day to problem solve for SpaceX.

hph6203 said:

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Gonna be a day of cognitive dissonance for millions of people tomorrow if they succeed. They're banking on failure forever, but tomorrow is just another day to problem solve for SpaceX.

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I would love to believe this, but unless there is a failure no one will even know it happened. I have Starbase on YouTube live for months, all day at work, and people barely know anything about Starship and how it's different than Falcon and the purpose.

Watch Starship's fifth flight test https://t.co/LVrCnTv797

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 12, 2024

Kenneth_2003 said:

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Keep in mind (assuming they do this like F9), it'll target a position offshore and only swoop in towards the tower if everything is perfect

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One of the videos I watched earlier (maybe Everyday Astro?) mentioned this. The autonomous flight computers are targeting somewhere offshore for the landing and it will only come back to the tower for the catch if the flight director gives the manual command prior to separation.

I was at the first 3 starship (including the water tower) launches/landing attempts, and statistically it seems their first attempts at any kind of landings end in ruds…that being said, I wish I could be there tomorrow to watch the show!

I also think that the fuel load of the booster at landing will play a part. They will probably try and burn as much as possible before coming back in.

However, the startships tests essentially went straight up and down at the pad…

Let's light this candle!

NEWS: The California Coastal Commission has rejected the Air Force's plan to allow @SpaceX to launch up to 50 rockets annually from Vandenberg, citing Elon Musk's political posts on X. Both the Air Force and Space Force supported the plan.

Insane. https://t.co/6BGASKLugl

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) October 12, 2024

I'd argue that barely any of those people even know what Falcon 9 is. They're not the ones I want eating crow. It's not even the people that dislike Musk. It's the ones that root for and gleefully celebrate what they perceive as failure for SpaceX/Musk.

People like this thunderf00t guy that has made it his entire online persona. He and people like him will probably be watching live. It's like crack to them.

https://www.youtube.com/live/Rn2EzfllTwA?si=FDV5WKgdavjOpZWb

Looks like launch at 7:10am based on SpaceX's stream starting at 6:35 and they said they would start their stream at T-35

will25u said:

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NEWS: The California Coastal Commission has rejected the Air Force's plan to allow @SpaceX to launch up to 50 rockets annually from Vandenberg, citing Elon Musk's political posts on X. Both the Air Force and Space Force supported the plan.

Insane. https://t.co/6BGASKLugl

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) October 12, 2024

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What kind of jurisdiction do they think they have Vandy is federal land. Certainly no lawyer but I'd assume fed trumps state here.

Kenneth_2003 said:

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Yeah... That's not going to stand up to any legal challenge.

My goodness though. Just when you think California liberals can't get anymore think skinned and petty.

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The phrase "arbitrary and capricious" comes to mind regarding regulatory decisions that are not based on the administrative record.

This is pretty cool

Here’s a photo I’ll never be able to capture again… here’s comet c/2023 A3 in conjunction with the fully-stacked starship rocket, a serendipitous juxtaposition.

In 8 hours, starship will make history as the booster returns to the landing site to be “caught” by the tower. pic.twitter.com/mzmrkOE8LS

— Andrew McCarthy (@AJamesMcCarthy) October 13, 2024

Are they actually launching?

Yes, the FAA approval came in. The 30 minute window opens tomorrow at 0700.

Targeting Sunday, October 13 for Starship’s fifth flight test. A 30-minute launch window opens at 7:00 a.m. CT → https://t.co/hibmw2lVv1 pic.twitter.com/3mZeH09eyl

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 12, 2024

Wake up you people. We're an hour out.

Starship 30 and Booster 12 - the flight 5 stack - yesterday evening. Feels like I just shot these and yet we're now under an hour and fifteen minutes until the opening of the window! @NASASpaceflight

Exclusive views on X: https://t.co/HByKPNKeGj
YT: https://t.co/gvWRYfFo6H pic.twitter.com/I8Y1BnyqYO

— Jack Beyer (@thejackbeyer) October 13, 2024

LFG!

So much fueling!!

Up and got coffee on!

Targeting 7:25 per Tim Dodd reading latest X Post