more and more smoke.... hope there is a real fire

🔴 European intelligence reports potential Russian coup involving Sergei Shoigu.

According to CNN, the Kremlin has restricted Vladimir Putin’s movements to fortified bunkers and intensified security for top military commanders following reports that the former defense minister… pic.twitter.com/8JqGDHf0L8

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) May 4, 2026

I'll believe it when I see it. Seems like social media accounts echoing a wish.

Recently, Ukrainian units have intensified strikes on Russian rear infrastructure at distances of one hundred to three hundred kilometers. Ukraine aims to systematically disrupt Russian logistics that sustain frontline operations, and geolocated footage shows Ukrainian drones flying over Donetsk non-stop and targeting key transport routes, with operators from the Azov Corps actively striking Russian military vehicles around the city. Additional footage indicates other strikes within the city, including repeated attacks on infrastructure such as the Druzhba Hotel, which was used by the Russian military.

This campaign aims to effectively encircle Donetsk but is also a part of a broader effort in which Ukraine's forces have destroyed two Iskander launch bases to prevent ballistic strikes on Ukraine and three ammunition and fuel depots to starve out Russian infantry on the frontline.

These strikes, which have allowed the Ukrainians to encircle Donetsk city from a distance, are significant because the capital of the region functions as a major military hub. Now, no Russian truck can go in or out without risking being targeted, even though the frontline is sixty kilometers away. Given that Donetsk supports multiple axes of advance, its isolation risks fragmenting the Russian army and undermining the entire operational system supporting Russian forces across the area.






https://www.rfunews.com/articles/ukrainians-isolate-donetsk-cutting-off-ammunition-and-fuel-to-russian-forces?_gl=1*1g66kme*_up*MQ..*_ga*MTc3MzIzMTI5NC4xNzc3OTIwODk5*_ga_N07465NZWK*czE3Nzc5MjA4OTgkbzEkZzAkdDE3Nzc5MjA4OTgkajYwJGwwJGgw

Acc to Russian channels, tonight Ukraine may have possibly launched one of its biggest drone attacks on Russia since the war began. https://t.co/E1JtGTazQS

— raging545 (@raging545) May 4, 2026

Ukrainian long range Flamingo missiles are slamming into the Russian city of Novocheboksarsk tonight.

— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) May 4, 2026

#BREAKING: Russia announces an unconditional ceasefire with Ukraine on May 8-9.

"If Ukraine attempts to implement its criminal plans to disrupt Victory Day celebrations, the Russian Armed Forces will launch a retaliatory strike on central Kyiv," Russian Defense Ministry said in… pic.twitter.com/0JCvoL9oyD

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) May 4, 2026

❗️BREAKING: 🇺🇦Ukraine declares a ceasefire on May 5 and 6, if 🇷🇺Russia wants a ceasefire on May 9, they will start it earlier - Zelensky

If Putin refuses, as I understand it, he should expect a Ukrainian "delegation" of attack drones at the May 9 parade

— Cloooud |🇺🇦 (@GloOouD) May 4, 2026

A very important and fair statement from President @ZelenskyyUa. Peace cannot wait until ‘parades’ and ‘celebrations’.

If Moscow is prepared to end hostilities, it can do so already tomorrow night. Ukraine is ready: at midnight from May 5th to May 6th. This is a serious… https://t.co/Jbefe6h5V2

— Andrii Sybiha 🇺🇦 (@andrii_sybiha) May 4, 2026

Germany is transferring a gas-fired power plant in Lubmin to Ukraine

The station was previously used to support the technical process of feeding gas into Germany’s gas transmission system. After Russian gas supplies stopped in 2022, it became unprofitable and was shut down in… pic.twitter.com/a4auZ28lLU

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) May 4, 2026

A Ukrainian 🇺🇦 FP-5 missile struck the VNIIR-Progress facility specializing in the production and research of advanced electronic warfare systems for the Russia

The facility is located in Cheboksary, Russia ~930km from Ukraine and was hit by a Flamingo for the first time tonight pic.twitter.com/t6Coa8ikpK

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) May 4, 2026

Footage of a Ukrainian Flamingo heavyweight cruise missile hitting a Russian target in Novocheboksarsk tonight. pic.twitter.com/BOotQjDX9J

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 4, 2026

I hope the ukes send a bunch of drones over moscow. They dont even have to be armed, just get the orcs to fly millions of dollars worth of air defense missiles. The falling debris should be enough of a psychological blow. Some of the bigger uavs should pull a banner that says something like "peace be with you"!

Russia is desperate in the south.

Sad, though. Ukraine once held Vuhledar.

I just leave this clip from 2022? From russian TV1.https://t.co/HgVdRSKPSM

— m.o.t (@KentUranium) May 5, 2026

PJYoung said:

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I just leave this clip from 2022? From russian TV1.https://t.co/HgVdRSKPSM

— m.o.t (@KentUranium) May 5, 2026

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Good for Ukraine for developing a long range weapon with a significant payload to strike back at those Russian *******s. I hope they can ramp that production up big time.

Poisonous black rain falls in Russia as result of increasing Ukrainian long-range attacks on oil facilities.

"Analysts said Putin's diminishing of the impact of Ukraine's strikes was typical of a system in which officials increasingly cocoon the president from bad news, fearing to tell him the truth, and in which it has become impossible for the president to acknowledge the damage being caused to his country."

STRIKES

Seems like a complete lack of air defenses as the Ukrainian drone raid goes on, striking a military plant that makes guidance components for Russian air-defense missiles like S400. https://t.co/1R2KCOyH2x pic.twitter.com/8jq7toUCJV

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) May 5, 2026

Putin's panic is growing by the hour.

He needs his parade.

The Russian side even suggested, through unofficial channels, that prisoners be exchanged on the eve of May 9th if Ukraine agreed not to attack the parade in Red Square.

Moscow is in complete chaos: the internet is… pic.twitter.com/0Fdd0qVXve

— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) May 5, 2026

Moscow is in complete chaos: the internet is down, airports are paralyzed, and there are problems with payments.

Locals are complaining that card payments aren't accepted everywhere and communication is patchy.

All because of the parade.

Wow, they certainly pack a punch.

👀💥 Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, unfortunately EW work… and consequences of Putin's "SVO" on the territory of Russia. pic.twitter.com/KI6PFzRfkK

— MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) May 5, 2026

Quote:

---

The Russian side even suggested, through unofficial channels, that prisoners be exchanged on the eve of May 9th if Ukraine agreed not to attack the parade in Red Square.

---

nah, blow the parade to pieces. Putin didn't seem to care when he launched this Special Operation

NEW!! U.S. approves $373m sale of extended-range precision bombs to Ukraine

State Department clears 1,500 JDAM kits to bolster Kyiv’s long-range strike capabilities against Russian forces pic.twitter.com/ttXH0JIpau

— Alex Raufoglu (@ralakbar) May 5, 2026

President Trump:

I like Zelenskyy. I've always sort of gotten along with him, other than the one moment in the White House, which I thought was a little aggressive on his behalf.

They [Ukrainians] fight. Because whether the equipment is great or less than great, they are able… pic.twitter.com/L8L2uMhApD

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 5, 2026

Massive explosions at a Russian ammunition depot have been recorded in Khrustalnyi, Luhansk region. It was reportedly hit by what sounds like jet powered drones. pic.twitter.com/xE0AFmIAZF

— raging545 (@raging545) May 5, 2026

Oh my!

The Trump Admin has been helping Ukraine target Russian oil for months!?!

The TDS crowd is gonna have an aneurysm. 🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/mj1Tmmxkeg

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) May 5, 2026

"For most of 2025, U.S. officials were discouraging Ukraine from hitting Russian oil infrastructure specifically because the strikes were contributing to global energy price increases that were politically uncomfortable domestically.

In October 2025, the Trump administration quietly approved expanded U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine for long-range deep strikes inside Russia, specifically targeting energy infrastructure and military-industrial sites.

There was no public announcement, no Rose Garden ceremony, and when the WSJ and Reuters reported it, Trump called the stories "FAKE NEWS."

Officials confirmed the policy shift privately.

Fast forward to March 2026: U.S. intelligence confirmed Russia was supplying Iran with satellite imagery and targeting data on American military assets in the Middle East (WaPo, CNN, Reuters).

That data supported Iranian attacks that killed and wounded Americans and inflicted billions of dollars in damage to U.S. military bases, radar systems, aircraft, and infrastructure across the region.

The green light is given...

April and May 2026: Ukraine begins a sustained and highly effective deep strike campaign against Russia:

April 2026 alone: At least 14 refineries and terminals hit, plus multiple defense plants. Targets stretched from Crimea to the Urals (Perm, Orsk, Chelyabinsk).

Tuapse Refinery struck four times in April. Key units damaged, dozens of storage tanks destroyed. The facility processes 12 million tons/year (4.4% of Russia's total refining) and supplies fuel to Russian forces.

April 29: Perm Linear Production Dispatch Station and Orsk refinery hit major fires reported, including "oil rain" in Perm.

May 23: Russia's largest Baltic export terminal at Primorsk struck (NASA FIRMS fires confirmed), along with a Karakurt-class corvette, patrol boat, and shadow fleet tankers. Simultaneous hits on two more shadow fleet tankers at Novorossiysk.

May 45: Over 600 drones and six FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles. Confirmed strikes on VNIIR-Progress in Cheboksary (key producer of guidance/navigation systems for Shaheds, Kalibrs, and Iskanders) and the Kirishi refinery (KINEF) in Leningrad Oblast.

The precision, depth, and success rate on heavily defended targets at that range are difficult to explain without an active, high-quality intelligence pipeline.

Russia provided targeting support later used in attacks that killed and wounded Americans.

Ukrainian long range strike volumes, accuracy and success rates increase dramatically.

Draw your own conclusions."

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Regarding the potential strikes on Moscow on May 9th—technically, the Armed Forces of Ukraine possess all the means to create a "living hell" on Red Square, whether through covert operations or direct drone and missile attacks. However, there is one "but..."

Specifically,… pic.twitter.com/zlIFfVb0Ad

— Visioner (@visionergeo) May 5, 2026

Quote:

---

Regarding the potential strikes on Moscow on May 9thtechnically, the Armed Forces of Ukraine possess all the means to create a "living hell" on Red Square, whether through covert operations or direct drone and missile attacks. However, there is one "but..."

Specifically, carrying out a strike on Moscow on May 9th would carry only political weight; it would be a form of humiliation for Putin, his elite, and the myth of Russian "greatness." In other respects, it would not bring about a significant military breakthrough on the front lines or alter the overall course of the war in the short to medium term. On the other hand, the potential Russian responsethe announced retaliatory missile strikes on the center of Kyivwould also be a purely political act and would have no impact on Ukraine's capacity to resist.

Consequently, the only real factor that might deter Ukraine from striking Moscow specifically on May 9th is the combined intelligence of Ukraine's military and foreign services regarding the impact on Russian citizens. They must weigh how bombing the primary center of the capital's "greatness" on a day of such national symbolic importance would be perceived: would it make the war popular again among the lower and middle classes, or would the resulting sense of vulnerability and fear make their attitude toward their ruler, Putin, more critical and negative?

In reality, the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have so far avoided bombing Russian civilian targets, residential areas, and peaceful citizens isalongside ethical and moral considerationslargely dependent on the trajectory of public sentiment within Russia. Today, the war is highly unpopular in Russia, both among the middle class and, given the critical economic complications, now among the lower/poor classes as wellthe very segment that provided Russia with its "cannon fodder." This is reflected on the front lines. According to recent assessments, Russia can no longer balance its human losses; essentially, they have been operating at a monthly deficit recently. Furthermore, because the war is unpopular, even under conditions of partial mobilization, it is impossible to recruit motivated and qualified soldiers, even with relatively high pay. All of this is caused by the lack of "fuel" for Russian propaganda, including the protracted war, the lack of real progress on the front, the economic crisis, and deep strikes by Ukrainian drones. The once-powerful Russian propaganda now has nothing to feed the masses ("bidlo") domestically, which directly affects the number of people willing to go to war.

Therefore, it is difficult to say with certainty what result a strike on Red Square on May 9th would yield. Naturally, Ukrainian special services will conduct preliminary assessments, analyze incoming data, and plan accordingly. They will determine whether this action will have a positive or negative effect on the course of the war for Ukraine, and only then will they make the decision on whether or not to strike Red Square on May 9th.

---

If Ukraine attacks Moscow on May 9, the response is likely going to flatten a good part of Kyiv.

Ukraine has fought Russia to a stalemate in the E & SE, though no real progress on Crimea.

Russia failed to take Kyiv as they tried to do it with minimal collateral damage and non-combatant casualties, they didn't want to destroy the city WWII style but that was a strategic error and the reason they are in this stalemate 4 years in.

Jarrin Jay said:

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If Ukraine attacks Moscow on May 9, the response is likely going to flatten a good part of Kyiv.

Ukraine has fought Russia to a stalemate in the E & SE, though no real progress on Crimea.

Russia failed to take Kyiv as they tried to do it with minimal collateral damage and non-combatant casualties, they didn't want to destroy the city WWII style but that was a strategic error and the reason they are in this stalemate 4 years in.

---

They couldn't. What little troops that made it past the snarled roads were annihilated. You might recall huge columns of Russian armor just stuck on the roads for a while.

Waffledynamics said:

---

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Regarding the potential strikes on Moscow on May 9th—technically, the Armed Forces of Ukraine possess all the means to create a "living hell" on Red Square, whether through covert operations or direct drone and missile attacks. However, there is one "but..."

Specifically,… pic.twitter.com/zlIFfVb0Ad

— Visioner (@visionergeo) May 5, 2026

Quote:

---

Regarding the potential strikes on Moscow on May 9thtechnically, the Armed Forces of Ukraine possess all the means to create a "living hell" on Red Square, whether through covert operations or direct drone and missile attacks. However, there is one "but..."

Specifically, carrying out a strike on Moscow on May 9th would carry only political weight; it would be a form of humiliation for Putin, his elite, and the myth of Russian "greatness." In other respects, it would not bring about a significant military breakthrough on the front lines or alter the overall course of the war in the short to medium term. On the other hand, the potential Russian responsethe announced retaliatory missile strikes on the center of Kyivwould also be a purely political act and would have no impact on Ukraine's capacity to resist.

Consequently, the only real factor that might deter Ukraine from striking Moscow specifically on May 9th is the combined intelligence of Ukraine's military and foreign services regarding the impact on Russian citizens. They must weigh how bombing the primary center of the capital's "greatness" on a day of such national symbolic importance would be perceived: would it make the war popular again among the lower and middle classes, or would the resulting sense of vulnerability and fear make their attitude toward their ruler, Putin, more critical and negative?

In reality, the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have so far avoided bombing Russian civilian targets, residential areas, and peaceful citizens isalongside ethical and moral considerationslargely dependent on the trajectory of public sentiment within Russia. Today, the war is highly unpopular in Russia, both among the middle class and, given the critical economic complications, now among the lower/poor classes as wellthe very segment that provided Russia with its "cannon fodder." This is reflected on the front lines. According to recent assessments, Russia can no longer balance its human losses; essentially, they have been operating at a monthly deficit recently. Furthermore, because the war is unpopular, even under conditions of partial mobilization, it is impossible to recruit motivated and qualified soldiers, even with relatively high pay. All of this is caused by the lack of "fuel" for Russian propaganda, including the protracted war, the lack of real progress on the front, the economic crisis, and deep strikes by Ukrainian drones. The once-powerful Russian propaganda now has nothing to feed the masses ("bidlo") domestically, which directly affects the number of people willing to go to war.

Therefore, it is difficult to say with certainty what result a strike on Red Square on May 9th would yield. Naturally, Ukrainian special services will conduct preliminary assessments, analyze incoming data, and plan accordingly. They will determine whether this action will have a positive or negative effect on the course of the war for Ukraine, and only then will they make the decision on whether or not to strike Red Square on May 9th.

---

---

Considering they have been able to get past Russian air defenses lately...

I think what they could do would be a coordinated fly by right over the parade with a bunch of drones that could blow things up...but DON'T blow things up at the parade or even in Moscow.

Have them turn after the fly by and blow up some **** outside of town.

That way, the citizens of Moscow can see they're being lied to by Putin, but they aren't harmed.

PR win for Ukraine and ***** slap for Putin...

2wealfth Man said:

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They have evidently pulled more ADA into the Moscow region to protect this ridiculous parade. Take the golden opportunity to hit'em elsewhere where it really counts.

---

There is also this...

2wealfth Man said:

---

They have evidently pulled more ADA into the Moscow region to protect this ridiculous parade. Take the golden opportunity to hit'em elsewhere where it really counts.

---

100% this.

Ag with kids said:

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Waffledynamics said:

---

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Regarding the potential strikes on Moscow on May 9th—technically, the Armed Forces of Ukraine possess all the means to create a "living hell" on Red Square, whether through covert operations or direct drone and missile attacks. However, there is one "but..."

Specifically,… pic.twitter.com/zlIFfVb0Ad

— Visioner (@visionergeo) May 5, 2026

Quote:

---

Regarding the potential strikes on Moscow on May 9thtechnically, the Armed Forces of Ukraine possess all the means to create a "living hell" on Red Square, whether through covert operations or direct drone and missile attacks. However, there is one "but..."

Specifically, carrying out a strike on Moscow on May 9th would carry only political weight; it would be a form of humiliation for Putin, his elite, and the myth of Russian "greatness." In other respects, it would not bring about a significant military breakthrough on the front lines or alter the overall course of the war in the short to medium term. On the other hand, the potential Russian responsethe announced retaliatory missile strikes on the center of Kyivwould also be a purely political act and would have no impact on Ukraine's capacity to resist.

Consequently, the only real factor that might deter Ukraine from striking Moscow specifically on May 9th is the combined intelligence of Ukraine's military and foreign services regarding the impact on Russian citizens. They must weigh how bombing the primary center of the capital's "greatness" on a day of such national symbolic importance would be perceived: would it make the war popular again among the lower and middle classes, or would the resulting sense of vulnerability and fear make their attitude toward their ruler, Putin, more critical and negative?

In reality, the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have so far avoided bombing Russian civilian targets, residential areas, and peaceful citizens isalongside ethical and moral considerationslargely dependent on the trajectory of public sentiment within Russia. Today, the war is highly unpopular in Russia, both among the middle class and, given the critical economic complications, now among the lower/poor classes as wellthe very segment that provided Russia with its "cannon fodder." This is reflected on the front lines. According to recent assessments, Russia can no longer balance its human losses; essentially, they have been operating at a monthly deficit recently. Furthermore, because the war is unpopular, even under conditions of partial mobilization, it is impossible to recruit motivated and qualified soldiers, even with relatively high pay. All of this is caused by the lack of "fuel" for Russian propaganda, including the protracted war, the lack of real progress on the front, the economic crisis, and deep strikes by Ukrainian drones. The once-powerful Russian propaganda now has nothing to feed the masses ("bidlo") domestically, which directly affects the number of people willing to go to war.

Therefore, it is difficult to say with certainty what result a strike on Red Square on May 9th would yield. Naturally, Ukrainian special services will conduct preliminary assessments, analyze incoming data, and plan accordingly. They will determine whether this action will have a positive or negative effect on the course of the war for Ukraine, and only then will they make the decision on whether or not to strike Red Square on May 9th.

---

---

Considering they have been able to get past Russian air defenses lately...

I think what they could do would be a coordinated fly by right over the parade with a bunch of drones that could blow things up...but DON'T blow things up at the parade or even in Moscow.

Have them turn after the fly by and blow up some **** outside of town.

That way, the citizens of Moscow can see they're being lied to by Putin, but they aren't harmed.

PR win for Ukraine and ***** slap for Putin...

---

Land a single drone in the square, have it pop a Ukrainian flag ,and repeatedly play " Putin khuylo"

Hopefully, Trump won't again renew the temporary pause of US sanctions on Russian oil exports, and the screws will tighten even further on Russia's economy.

"Ukraine has doubled its strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and is keeping up that pace into May, targeting refineries, export terminals, Baltic Sea ports, and sanctioned tankers in what analysts at ACLED now describe as a sustained campaign rather than a temporary escalation, one calculated to drain the revenue Russia is drawing from a global energy market disrupted by the war in Iran."

OIL

Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine declared a ceasefire starting at 00:00 on the night of May 5-6, noting that they would act symmetrically from that moment onward. As of 10:00 AM, the Russian Armed Forces have violated the ceasefire 1,820 times. Zelenskyy added that further actions… pic.twitter.com/3VXZiLSyAj

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) May 6, 2026

⚡️ Ukraine will not observe the May 9 ceasefire

Defense Ministry adviser Sternenko, following the brutal attacks overnight, stated:

“Russia violated the ceasefire regime and carried out a series of attacks on Ukraine.

These actions by the aggressor nullify the ‘ceasefire’ for… https://t.co/mFnmP4IOop pic.twitter.com/lYgMhYoPTi

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) May 6, 2026

Zakharova says that Russia has sent letters to diplomacy missions in Ukraine, saying they should evacuate their staff from Kyiv. If Ukraine launches a strike on Russia on May 9, then Russia will strike back at Kyiv.

Russia is very afraid.

Also, Russia doesn't need a reason to… https://t.co/JNUMPLvJTS pic.twitter.com/uMjKlBP9Xj

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 6, 2026

"Air defense rings around Moscow are being reinforced by pulling systems from the regions - the Russian Federation cares more about the parade than the entire country. This opens up additional opportunities for our long-range sanctions. Our corresponding priorities will be… pic.twitter.com/pRak90MIiF

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) May 6, 2026

“Twenty-eight people were reportedly killed and 194 injured on 5 May alone in a wave of attacks by the Russian Federation, bringing the reported civilian toll across Ukraine since 1 May to at least 70 killed and more than 500 injured, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in… pic.twitter.com/4EwUi1PvJl

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 6, 2026

Here's to hoping that May 9 is going to be refinery and pipeline day.