Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

621,538 Views | 9908 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by nortex97
Teslag
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I think what most realize is Trump is about to end it with a deal both sides have to give something up for.
nortex97
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"Basically" all the war fans check this thread anyway, of course. And it's been entirely validated.

I personally try to only post a handful of times on a given thread absent some rapid fire happenings a la usaid recently.

Legally, I think the Ukraine war conspiracy was in furtherance of russiagate etc coup attempts, and deliveries and acts/communications continued up until at least Jan 20.

PlaneCrashGuy
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WestAustinAg said:

MJ20/20 said:

There's a chunk of naive folks on this site that bought all of that bull**** hook line and sinker.

The richest part being they claimed to be moderate and/or conservative consituents that lapped up the leftist agenda. Trump is going to sever support and serve up Ukraine on a silver paltter.

Or they were funded by groups that are then asked to go online and make the case for Ukraine. I wouldn't doubt that the funding has been disrupted and morale is weak.


I think morale is weak because Ukraine has been unable to stop the Russian advance since their counteroffensive stalled out well short of Crimea, which was its stated goal.
nortex97
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Just disgusting.

Ukraine loses another couple hundred in a miserably failed attack up around Kursk. Ayden (@squatsons) has video etc. of the turkey shoot. Pretty sad waste of lives.
This is why the NAFO chatter online has died; 90 percent relied on USAID.

This could be very productive if/when the Russian proxy war is over:
nortex97
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Sitrep: more young men are being drawn into the meat-grinding proxy war.
Quote:

Quote:

"Combat brigades, experienced ones, together with the Ministry of Defense... are working on a contract option for young people from 18 to 24 years old... There will be a special agreement, there will be many preferences... there will be very high financial support," Zelensky said.
This is part of the recent initiative from Zelensky to tiptoe gradually toward full-on mobilization of the final youth contingent by first heavily incentivizing them, as well as tightening the yoke little by little with various provisions and constraints that remove exemption categories one at a time.

I've posted various videos in the past showing that a kind of 'stealth' mobilization of 18+ is already underway, like this one from Rada MP Dmitry Razumkov. Depending what the true scale of the stealth mobilization is, it could mean that Ukraine will face real trouble if it ever really does 'officially' announce an 18+ mobilization, because those reserves would have already been drained in advance.

In some ways, both Putin and Zelensky are playing the same gamePutin has refused to do another 'official' mass call-up, relying on various forms of 'lowkey' mobilization options, from prisoner labor, to volunteers and mercenaries, partly in order to keep society from souring on the war. Now Zelensky does the same, but is in far more dire straits.
Hopefully much fewer are eagerly cheering on this blood bath now with the reduction in USAID-paid propaganda. It looks like Ukraine still controls around 60-70 percent of their 'rare earth' resources:

Ukrainian offensive spurt in Kursk is on-brand insanity: no follow up attack.
Quote:

The purpose is to give some breathing room to Sudzha, which Russian forces have been putting the squeeze on in recent weeks. The offensive reportedly saw several battalions worth of troops and an estimated ~30-50 vehicles already claimed destroyed in another turkey shoot. The Ukrainian side on the other hand claims Russian forces suffered heavy casualties as well. In this case, the Russians held the propaganda upper hand with dozens of videos of destroyed Ukrainian gear and men flooding out, including a lot of 'rare' itemsnow destroyedlike Challenger tanks, Bergepanzers, Wisent-1s and IMR-2s, which led to analysts opining that the AFU was scraping the bottom of the barrel for heavy weapons to use.
Toretsk liberated.

So, still some silliness out there. And some (3? 5? I dunno) Mirage 2000's delivered. These are newer than the ancient F-16's for UFA but the real issue is their lack of skilled aviators at this point. Will be interesting to see if they deploy them to eastern Ukraine or not.
Orban touts new economic deal with the US:
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"We are preparing to make an economic deal of significant size and seriousness with America. I agreed with President Trump even before he was elected that there would be such a deal," said Orban, as quoted by local media.

Hungarian MP and senior member of the ruling Fidesz party Tamas Menczer stated earlier this week that the growing alliance between Orban and Trump serves as "a mirror for Brussels" that shows its "failures."

Hungary has been actively pursuing stronger economic ties with the United States. In January, the government appointed a ministerial commissioner responsible for boosting investment and business relations with the US. The two sides are also discussing a new double taxation agreement to prevent individuals and businesses from being taxed in both countries. The previous deal was unilaterally terminated by Washington in 2022.
PlaneCrashGuy
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I wish they would wrap this up before the last young generation of Ukrainians are sent in to die
nortex97
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Well you see Herr Zelensky's message is…not really accepted any longer.

These were unmanned (no gore) but interesting to see this imagery of Belgian-made gear in/around Kupyansk:

Advances north of Kupyanksk (More at the thread):

VP Vance and Waltz landed yesterday in Paris for these war-ending talks I believe (I saw a tweet of himself/family walking off AF2);
Quote:

The US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense, the Vice President, and the US special envoy in Europe will visit the continent this week to discuss strategies for ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz has said. They aim to bring both sides to the negotiating table.

The objective is to talk through "the details of how to end this war," he said in an interview with NBC on Sunday. However, Waltz declined to confirm whether US President Donald Trump had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the matter.

Trump himself claims to have spoken with Putin on the phone, but has thus far refused to provide any details. The Kremlin has neither confirmed nor denied phone calls with the American leader. Answering a question from a New York Post reporter on Friday on the number of times he had been in contact with Putin, Trump replied, "I'd better not say." The US president did tell the paper that he believed his counterpart wanted a cessation of hostilities.
[url=https://www.rt.com/news/612394-trump-putin-alleged-call/][/url]
Commenting on the nature of the behind-the-scenes talks, Waltz emphasized they were confidential. "There are certainly a lot of sensitive conversations going on." He said that Trump has already spoken to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Middle East leaders about ending the conflict, adding that "Everybody is ready to help President Trump in this war."

Washington envisions the European nations providing security guarantees to Kiev, according to Waltz. "I think an underlying principle here is that the Europeans have to own this conflict going forward. President Trump is going to end it. And then in terms of security guarantees, that is squarely going to be with the Europeans."
The biggest issue is presumably that Putin considers Zelensky illegitimate to conclude any agreement with, and the latter of course refuses to allow elections. Perhaps with 90 percent of Ukrainian media collapsing without USAID cash flows, pressure will finally build internally on him to reverse course.
Red Fishing Ag93
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How do I get my $2 million to go pose in a picture for president zelensky?
nortex97
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Tucker has a nice interview with some shocking claims about Ukraine selling (weapons etc) to cartels with Col. Davis.

Solid:

Huge Nato base by Ukraine in great jeopardy now:

Simplicius has an update on substack, if interested.
nortex97
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Worth revisiting both, because, yep.


Truth.

Ukraine is primarily, more than any thing else, a victim of American foreign policy.
PlaneCrashGuy
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"They may be Russian someday, they might not be"

This quote perfectly encapsulates the "not our business, not our problem" mentality of real America first patriotism. For too long we've been expected to pay for security for everyone, everywhere.
1836er
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I feel the same way.

Ukraine was a wreck before.

The meddling of America's establishment neo-liberal globalists wrecked it even worse.

And now there are, tragically, no good outcomes left for Ukraine... only different kinds/levels of bad ones.
Vance in '28
nortex97
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Whelp, here we are. World media reacts:
Quote:

The historic phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, over the fate of Ukraine has left Kiev out in the cold, upended US relations with the EU, and is a major diplomatic coup for Russia, several global media outlets have argued.

On Wednesday, Moscow and Washington confirmed that the two leaders held a highly productive 90-minute conversation, marking the first time a US president has negotiated with his Russian counterpart since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.

Following the call, Trump signaled that he is "OK" with keeping Ukraine out of NATO, which has been one of Russia's concerns for years. He also suggested it is "unlikely" that Kiev will regain all of the territory it has lost to Russia over the past decade.

While Trump dismissed the idea that he is "freezing out" Vladimir Zelensky from the peace process and confirmed that the two had spoken after the Putin call, he suggested that the Ukrainian leader will have to hold elections at some point. Zelensky's term as president expired in May 2024, with Moscow considering him "illegitimate."

No NATO for Kiev, Ukrainian territorial concessions, venue for talks with Putin: Key takeaways from Trump's briefing
[url=https://www.rt.com/news/612633-trump-briefing-putin-call-recap/][/url]
The phone call sent shock waves through the global media, which almost universally portrayed it as a blow to Ukraine and EU countries and a victory for Russia.

Britain's Daily Telegraph published an article titled 'This is Putin and Trump's world now'…
It's funny, but RT is now fully vindicated as well, vs. the USAID/CIA propaganda outlets like ISW/Politico etc. Trump's comments that Zelensky didn't invite him to Kiev, might not be interested in going even if he did made me laugh.

Romania's president resigned with USAID funding gone, and El Salvador's president noted anti-mining protesters evaporated with USAID funding too. Weird coincidences.
Sitrep: Hysteria as Trump tosses Ukraine on the third rail:
Quote:

In actuality, there's virtually nothing to talk about. Not only has Putin clearly dictated that no legal document can be signed with an illegitimate president like Zelenskywhich itself puts off any "negotiations" until Zelensky is long gonebut the truth is, it's hard to imagine any legal document being signed with the West at all. Russia has long suffered the betrayals of not only the various Minsk agreements, but endless other reneged ones in the past, from the 'not-an-inch-eastward' NATO understanding to the various treaties US pulled out of, as in the ABM Treaty.

Putin and other Kremlin officials have hinted at this before, but signing any long term foundational agreements with the US is folly because only four years later, another deep state neocon president can steal the election be elected and immediately bin the agreement, if only to spite his previous rival. In such an uncertain political framework, in recent years known for its erratic and schizo-level politics, how can any foundational agreement in good faith be signed?
So, maybe Zelensky does have to go first, for an actual peace to be established. I dunno, there are still varying takes but I think Trump's got his team in Europe to simmer down the EU folks and tell them this will be on their tab moving forward before negotiating an actual deal with Putin himself. The Eurocrats and Zelensky alike seem to now recognize (publicly) the Russian build up throughout the war though, so I guess the lies about that are put to bed:
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Russia's military capabilities are three times greater than they were before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovil akalien has said.

"Russia's military capabilities are already three times greater than they were when the large-scale invasion of Ukraine began three years ago. And all of this has happened in the context of an active war," the minister said in an interview with the 15min.lt news website published on Monday.
Zelensky then went on to scare Europeans by claiming after Ukraine falls, Russia will easily occupy all of Europe, as the now-swelled Russian army has a "three to one" manpower advantage over the combined European armies
So, yet again, the war didn't weaken the Russian military machine, net, and certainly enriched Putin's pals (and Xi) along the way with the knock on effects of oil/gas etc.
The hilarity is what it is:

Remember when this was the vaunted 'counteroffensive' oplan, and a firm commitment that the war's end could only involve Ukraine in Nato and return of land in the Donbas to Kiev:
MJ20/20
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Nortex, you deserve a ton of credit for seeing through the lies, corruption, propoganda, etc... from the get go. It's easy to go back through this thread where you reconized and called out the failure on all fronts. Be it the American side and it's puppet state, the EU, and especially Ukrainian leadership.You got called a lot of names for providing an honest perspective. This deal isn't over yet, but it looks like you and a select few (OPAG, Plane Crash Guy and more) in this thread had the ability to use critical thinking and see through the fog of disinformation and emotion to the true abomination this entire thing was.
AtticusMatlock
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I'm sorry, but did you read an article claiming Russia's military capabilities are three times greater than what they were before the war and you actually believe that?

Are you for real? Russia had to bring in North Korean troops to try to kick Ukrainians out of Kursk. Satellite imagery shows their tank reserves almost completely depleted and they are putting retrofitted 1950s-era armor on the battlefield.

If that quote is actually true, which I'm not sure it is, *that* is pure propaganda. The Russian army was exposed as being a paper tiger at the onset of the war. If they are three times more capable it's just due to the logistical experience, not due to the increase in material or manpower.

One can certainly debate the merits of the US aiding Ukraine but gees. That claim is a bridge too far.
nortex97
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AtticusMatlock said:

I'm sorry, but did you read an article claiming Russia's military capabilities are three times greater than what they were before the war and you actually believe that?

Are you for real?

One can certainly debate the merits of the US aiding Ukraine but gees.
That's what the Lithuanian defense minister said a few days ago. Again, the most valuable information in our modern age about the politically driven wars are those made against interests.

The narrative that Russia's military is devastated as a consequence of the war is simply false. Sure, they lost a bunch of bodies but they also gained leadership experience (invaluable vs. a peacetime military), and tactics/equipment modernization as well as an absurdly improved ability to use drones/stand off weapons. Their growth in size and capabilities can't really be questioned, and isn't by those from the baltics to Zelensky himself.

The scale of their Cold War facilities re-activated, as well as drone/military production that is new, is really something I think many try to ignore or just are unaware of.

Donghorn
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Every bit of this is reason enough the US needs to go back to an AMERICA FIRST mentality. Iraq was a mistake, Vietnam was a mistake, Korea was a mistake. Patton was also right we should've never sided with the Russians. I'm thankful that there haven't been any US troops on the ground in Ukraine. The US elites have figured out how to gain power and financial success without the death of US soldiers…. And that's great. Now they just need to be made an example for all the senseless support of Ukraine and the monies that never benefited the true cause of the conflict.


nortex97 said:

Tucker has a nice interview with some shocking claims about Ukraine selling (weapons etc) to cartels with Col. Davis.

Solid:

Huge Nato base by Ukraine in great jeopardy now:

Simplicius has an update on substack, if interested.
I don’t start threads, I end them…
nortex97
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Thx, by the way. It's been a fascinating, if morbid and infuriating topic to follow the past few years. The dishonesty such as with Rutte etc. is tough to really contextualize outside of a longer discussion.

"Pretty soon"…

Mistakes:

Ron Paul had a nice talk/discussion a day ago:

If European energy prices and Eastern Europe can be stabilized with the cessation of hostilities here no one will have a bone to pick with the terms long term, and the hyperbole/deprecatory positioning of Russia which has been primarily a tool of our American left against Trump can end.

That's what we really need to have happen vs. China and the Muslim world, imho. America benefits from both a strong, independent Europe and Russia alike, vs. the bloodshed/various invasions the past 4 years have afforded various bad actors.
nortex97
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Some speculation about a post-war boom in aviation at least from another forum; Ryanair looking to be first back, in 6 weeks from ceasefire/peace deal.
Quote:

Indeed Ukraine was gaining momentum before the war as a tourism destination (somehow the new Poland) with Ryanair and Wizz Air growing quickly.
I think whenever things stabilise there will be a massive boom.

- VFR traffic has exploded with many Ukrainians moving to Western Europe. Whether they stay or come back, that is a huge traffic.

- Tourism. Many Western Europeans would like to visit a place they have seen on TV for 3 years non-stop. Other than the war, Ukraine is a safe country, cheap; only max 2 hours to Western Europe. Boom.

- Business. If Ukraine needs to be rebuilt, a lot of Western companies will have a lot to do there. Although this would be more of legacy carriers rather than Ryanair…
Uke false-flag:


Nice:

I remember being lectured way back when about how the Biden Nato promise to Ukraine, and 'minor incursion' comments did not provoke the conflict. Weird, Trump agrees with me.
nortex97
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Another 'wow' moment.

'If you want elections then get out of Ukraine.' However, Zelensky has eliminated the right of military age males to leave.

I've been wondering about this, makes some sense.

TRADUCTOR
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PlaneCrashGuy
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MJ20/20 said:

Nortex, you deserve a ton of credit for seeing through the lies, corruption, propoganda, etc... from the get go. It's easy to go back through this thread where you reconized and called out the failure on all fronts. Be it the American side and it's puppet state, the EU, and especially Ukrainian leadership.You got called a lot of names for providing an honest perspective. This deal isn't over yet, but it looks like you and a select few (OPAG, Plane Crash Guy and more) in this thread had the ability to use critical thinking and see through the fog of disinformation and emotion to the true abomination this entire thing was.
nortex97
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More USAID repercussions and a blob definition of losing:


But 'Democracy dies in darkness.'

Zelensky ranted about Trump, and demanded the Euro's come up with a 'European army' for him. Macron called for an emergency meeting about Ukraine today. LOL at any thoughts that will go anywhere.

And, yep:
PlaneCrashGuy
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Questions worth asking
nortex97
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Kallas idiotically justifying Russian objectives:

As Ukraine continued to contract:

Bloomberg reporting Trump wants the war over by Easter now. Russians want to hear him out, apparently to visit Moscow in the next couple of weeks.
Quote:

Asked about his expectations for the talks, Lavrov said that "when we go to negotiations on the proposal of our partners, first of all, we always want to hear them out." He also noted that Trump and Putin agreed to leave behind "an absolutely abnormal period" in relations between the countries, which have barely communicated over the past three years.

"The presidents agreed that it is necessary to resume dialogue on all issues that can be resolved one way or another with the participation of Russia and the US… Therefore, we will listen to our American counterparts and, of course, we will be ready to respond. Then we will report to our leaders who will take decisions on future steps," the minister said.

Trump has vowed to swiftly end the Ukraine conflict, with his team reportedly planning to reach a ceasefire by late April. Following his talks with Putin, the US president suggested that he did not think it was "practical" for Ukraine to join NATO, adding that Kiev has very little chance of regaining the territory it has lost to Russia over the past decade.

Moscow has stressed that it seeks a permanent solution to the conflict rather than a temporary ceasefire. It has insisted that Ukraine must commit to neutrality, denazification, and demilitarization, as well as to recognize the territorial reality on the ground.
Polish FM strongly opposes creation of an EU army per Zelensky's dreams (presumably because he realizes it would wind up controlled by the fascists in Berlin/Paris/Brussels).

Fortunately, the warmongering Brits are fantastically ill-equipped for any major military engagements (26 ships? Do they even have armored units any longer?), and almost entirely toothless to ramp up actual support for the Kiev dictatorship.
nortex97
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Green goblin pursues vicious lawfare against political opposition ahead of possible elections:
Quote:

Last week, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) the executive body operating under the president imposed lifetime sanctions on Poroshenko, alongside prominent businessmen Igor Kolomoisky, Gennady Bogolyubov, Konstantin Zhevago, and Viktor Medvedchuk, the former head of the political council of the Opposition Platform For Life party.

Notably, NSDC decisions require approval by presidential decree, meaning the sanctions against Poroshenko and these high-profile oligarchs are entirely Zelensky's doing. Instead of pursuing legal action through the courts, Zelensky opted to impose indefinite sanctions without due process.
….
This isn't the first time Zelensky and his administration have tried to tighten their grip on Ukraine's political landscape. However, with public exhaustion growing and instability on the rise, such actions could lead to unpredictable consequences.

For the first time since the outbreak of full-scale hostilities, MPs from the European Solidarity party staged a two-day blockade of parliament in response to the sanctions, preventing Prime Minister Denis Shmigal from addressing lawmakers. This escalation signals a new level of tension within Ukraine's political elite.
Poroshenko remains a powerful figure, backed by influential circles including the military and Ukraine's Western allies.

Removing him from the political arena could further destabilize the country and deepen the existing governance crisis. Worse still, the political and economic effects of the sanctions may not outweigh their unintended consequences. Instead of weakening him, they could actually boost Poroshenko's standing both among his domestic supporters and in the West, where he could be seen as a persecuted opposition leader.
He also mouthed off that the peace talks in Saudi Arabia can't have any results and he won't accept any deal. Meanwhile:

Sitrep: Let the games begin. It sounds like the outcome will actually be steps toward trade normalization with Russia, something I had figured Trump would use as the key negotiating tool. Trade will help with our energy/inflation and them as well, plus it could unfreeze assets the Biden team has been holding hostage. Ideally also a cut down in weaponry (types and quantities) to Kiev will force Zelensky to negotiate.

In fact, reduced intelligence and limits to basically what the Euro's are willing to procure from us for Kiev are already rumored.

Withdrawing forces from the baltics, and possibly even Nato make perfect sense as well.

Pyne's piece itself is excellent (and lengthy). I highly recommend checking it out. Another good idea:
Quote:

As I have long advocated, President Trump should consider withdrawing all US ground troops from Europe to shift the burden of providing European security to our allies by the end of 2025 given that their GDP is over four times larger than Russia's and then transform NATO into a European-led alliance as I proposed back in 2019. The US has not had any need or security interest to station any ground troops in NATO since the last Russian troops were withdrawn from central and eastern Europe over three decades ago.
Absolute wins for America, and the Euro's should be thrilled not to be under our thumb. Meanwhile, Kiev attacks American oil interests (caution, nsfw language):

And, inexorably onwards…

Logos Stick
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nortex97
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Yep. The Euro's/war hawks/neo-cons certainly won't like this news. And, leaving Nato seems to be building momentum:

Lovely people:

I've read that sanctions are being lifted, a great step, if so. The sanctions haven't really harmed Russia, but even as such the Euro's will have to also respond since their sanctions will be even less 'effective' without our own counterparts in place.

Stepping further away from the abyss of escalation.
aggiehawg
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My understanding of Article Five is that if one of NATOs European members send troops into another country to join in a war effort, then gets attacked in retaliation, the defense pact doesn't apply?
AlaskanAg99
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aggiehawg said:

My understanding of Article Five is that if one of NATOs European members send troops into another country to join in a war effort, then gets attacked in retaliation, the defense pact doesn't apply?


Correct, we could also simply ignore a request.
nortex97
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Or send a single helmet and say good luck.
MJ20/20
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nortex97
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Quote:

Essentially Russia and America looking to restore relations and work together on global issues, which include:
- Ukraine (obviously)
- Middle East
- Mediation with China
- Mediation with Iran
- Mediation with North Korea
- BRICS and US relations
- De-dollarization situation

Trump is well aware that Russia is catalyst and allied with many nations in the global south, and is needed for the settlement of many conflicts, if you want to avoid war … what Trump wants.

The Kiev born Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund came to negotiate economical details.l and he in the CNN interview explains the approach.

Dmitriev said he had already held several meetings with Trump's team:

"We've had several meetings with members of the Trump team, and all I can say is that they are great problem solvers. And I think President Trump is a great negotiator, as is his entire team"

-> In short, Russia and USA are about to work on the global order, not about Ukraine in isolation. That's bad news for Ukraine, as it's a bargaining chip in this equation … not the main actor.

Hence EU is also not needed, they're just noise.
Good updates: gets into the situation Europe's big 3 face with US-Russian relations improving around 30 minutes in.
PlaneCrashGuy
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Amazing what can happen when competen leadership is restored to Pennsylvania Ave
OPAG
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nortex97 said:



Quote:

Essentially Russia and America looking to restore relations and work together on global issues, which include:
- Ukraine (obviously)
- Middle East
- Mediation with China
- Mediation with Iran
- Mediation with North Korea
- BRICS and US relations
- De-dollarization situation

Trump is well aware that Russia is catalyst and allied with many nations in the global south, and is needed for the settlement of many conflicts, if you want to avoid war … what Trump wants.

The Kiev born Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund came to negotiate economical details.l and he in the CNN interview explains the approach.

Dmitriev said he had already held several meetings with Trump's team:

"We've had several meetings with members of the Trump team, and all I can say is that they are great problem solvers. And I think President Trump is a great negotiator, as is his entire team"

-> In short, Russia and USA are about to work on the global order, not about Ukraine in isolation. That's bad news for Ukraine, as it's a bargaining chip in this equation … not the main actor.

Hence EU is also not needed, they're just noise.
Good updates: gets into the situation Europe's big 3 face with US-Russian relations improving around 30 minutes in.

This is really simple.

The EU and Ukraine are basically the Soros, Gates WEF, New World order, One world gov group.

And that group through Obama, Biden, the dems, had been slowly but surely destroying the US and the West. and their goal is simple to destruction of al nation states.

Trump knows this, Putin knows this, China wants this as they wish to be the new dominant force.

So Trump is flipping the table right now. And as I said over 6 years ago. Ukraine is a Soros state, but they have taken over the EU. So Trump will create an alliance with Russia, and there is never any legitimate reason for that not have happened over 20 years ago.It is simple the New World Order did not want it. simple as that.
"only one thing is important!"
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