Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

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Trump to Zelenskyy:

Look dude. This war is over. Putin and I will figure it out and let you know what we agree to.

Then you're paying back every red cent of what we gave you and then some. If you don't like it we will sanction you into the Stone Age.

Wait for my secretary's email with your homework of what to sign and when. I'll be sending over Hecla and Southern copper to start surveying those mining sites next week. Make sure they don't have any bull**** to put up with while they are there.

---

And American companies prosper, which after it was seen that Putin's "army" was a joke and would never take over all of Ukraine, became part of the plan when the support to Ukraine went into effect.

We all may hate the MIC, but they're going to get what they've waited three years for, money from rebuilding Ukraine. Our 401ks are about to get fat AF. And all thanks to there being a Ukraine to rebuild.

Actual Talking Thermos said:

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PA24 said:

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[European] food and beer sucks.

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One of the wrongest takes I have read on F16

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Thank you very much, enjoy your pork and beans for breakfast and mayonnaise on your fries as you drink the Heineken that bites back.

You've been to Italy? France? Germany? And the food and beer were bad?

E: I'll grant you that Heineken is trash, but fritessaus (which is not the same as American mayo) is the best fries condiment

Actual Talking Thermos said:

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You've been to Italy? France? Germany? And the food and beer were bad?

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Overrated.

Give me American fast foods, American pizza, BBQ, Cajun dishes, with cold American ice tea everyday of week and twice on Sunday.

Ags4DaWin said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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Ags4DaWin said:

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Hullabaloonatic said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Ags4DaWin said:

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rgag12 said:

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I think Europe should guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty in a separate agreement outside of NATO. Otherwise Russia will be tempted to recoup what it sees it "lost" in the upcoming treaty in the future.

---

Nope. That is for Europe to do.

If Europe wants to protect Ukraine then they better ****ing do it.

The US has to worry about China and keeping them from global hegemony. We can't do that and protect Europe's backyard at the same time.

They need to do some of their own goddam heavy lifting for once.

---

Well said, Not our war not our problem. America first.

---

Meanwhile, Trump: "We're going to take Gaza"

So is it America first? or no new wars? or...how do we slogan this contradiction?


Also, Hegseth saying that NATO is off the table and re-establishing borders from 2014 is not happening...why is he just giving away negotiating chips with Russia? Why concede these in public if Trump just started his negotiations with Putin?

---

You don't know what's going on here. Sit down I will explain it to you.

Trump isn't giving away negotiating chips.

Trump IS chipping away at Putin's publicly stated reasons for going into Ukraine in the first place. Putin has publicly declared that this is a NOBLE WAR for the benefit of oppressed peoples, root out corruption and Nazis, and to defend Russia from those who would attack her.

Putin has said that invading Ukraine was necessary because
1) crimes against humanity regarding ethnic Russians and prorussian people in the Donbas region
2) the USA threatened to annex Ukraine into NATO which would put us missiles in Russia's backyard
3) corruption in Ukraine that was affecting Russians (Ukraine's US funded bioweapons lab)

Now if Trump tells putin that NATO admission is off the table, and that the Donbas regions are not going g to return to Ukraine that means that Putin now has very few reasons and excuses to continue a NOBLE and JUSTIFIED war.

If Putin pivots and says the war is still necessary then he is showing his ass to the world.

Putin is a bully but he's also not ******ed. You can't claim you are fighting a "NOBLE" war if all the noble reasons are addressed.

Trump is taking away Putin's ability to call the war a "noble" undertaking which means if putin continues the war then he shows the world that he is the villain in the story.

That puts the ball squarely in Putin's court.

If Putin decides to publicly turn heel then that gives the rest of the world the excuse to take the gloves off and make attacking internal Russian territory fair game.

Putin doesn't want that. There has so far been a gentleman's agreement to not give Ukraine offensive weapons capable of hitting Russia.

Putin shows his ass now and that agreement goes out the window. Putin doesn't want that.

---

Let's say this is true: The plan only works if you're actually willing to give Ukraine the ability to hit them hard in the scenario where Putin doesn't back down. Otherwise it's just hollow posturing.

It also fails to recognize the real reason for this conflict that Putin is using the "noble war" lie to distract from. That real reason doesn't really give him the option to back down.

---

Half of international relations is creating the perception that what your doing is justified which gives allies reasons to aid you and legitimacy to your regime and actions.

For example-

1) being recognized as a country...once you are recognized it opens the door for all sorts of foreign aid.
2) justified vs unjustified wars- gives other countries legitimate ways to help you.

If we take away the appearance of legitimacy to further war then Russia has two choices-

A) continue the war knowing that other countries now have the "freedom" to put their own soldiers on the ground to help Ukraine defend itself and counterattack into Russia proper. This then ALSO gives Europe a legitimate reason to give Ukraine missiles that can be used to strike into Russia proper, something Europe has not yet done as part of the gentleman's agreement. This possibility will scare the hell out of Putin. Moscow is ridiculously close to Ukraine's border 490 kM or appr. 250 miles. If Ukraine is given missiles with even a decent strike range then Moscow then becomes fair game for Ukraine to strike.

B) take your win and go home. Russia has achieved all of its noble stated objectives- freed Donbas from the oppression of western Ukraine, uncovered illegal US bioweapons labs in Ukraine and shut them down, and regained access to the black sea via Crimea.

The cost of Russia engaging in a war in which Moscow becomes fair game for missile strikes is not worth what little else they would gain from continued war.

Trump giving them their "noble" win allows them to quit while they are ahead and claim the Noble Victory Putin desires. From their it will be on Europe to finally get their militaries on line to ensure Putin doesn't get itchy again.

Additionally they need to stop thinking they can do whatever they want because the Americans will come in to save them.

Sometimes you negotiate with a stick via Teddy Roosevelt.

Sometimes the previous administration ****s up so bad you have to give your adversary a way to gracefully claim victory because the previous administration ****ed up any way to force concessions without engaging in all out war and risk nuclear holocaust.

The US is not in a position to force concessions and any attempt to negotiate from a position of power is just going to make the situation worse....the US has no power here. We blew our wad because we were slinging our dick around like we were the biggest kid on the block and Putin called our bluff.

And now that our wad is shot we need to realm and prepare for the upcoming conflict with China....because that has been half of the game being played here- China watching and testing the waters to see just how worn down the US military has become due to its endless wars in the middle east and just how much of a materiale reserve we can muster if they decide to act on some of their designs on countries like Taiwan.

What has happened here is the second option. Trump knows this. He knows the only big stick we can wave at this point js going to all out war and there is ZERO reason we should risk that for a piece of **** land like Ukraine.

If Obama had let Ukraine continue to be Russia's puppet instead of forcibly installing a Russia antagonistic regime and laundering their dirty money through the new government (which was just as corrupt as the Russian government btw) then this would never have happened.

Putin isn't a dumbass.

---

This is an existential war for survival for Russia. They are a dying civilization both demographically and culturally. They are in their last decade or so of being able to wage war like this. It's a war that was always going to happen because of this.

The real reason for this is the same reason Russia has been doing this for the last 500 years: They are attempting to expand and regain various geographic choke points that allow them to both better defend their country from invasion, and to expand their population.

Putin can't back down because, from his perspective, that's not an option. He has to keep going until he has Ukraine (all of it) and then he has to continue aggressive expansion. And the mainstream west's fundamental misunderstanding of this leads some to believe in certain strategies that simply don't work. This is going to continue until it physically can't anymore.

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

This is an existential war for survival for Putin Russia. They are He is a dying man civilization both demographically and culturally. They are in their last decade or so of being able to wage war like this. It's a war that was always going to happen because of this.

The real reason for this is the same reason Russia has been doing this for the last 500 years: They are attempting to expand and regain various geographic choke points that allow them to both better defend their country from invasion, and to expand their population.

Putin can't back down because, from his perspective, that's not an option. He has to keep going until he has Ukraine (all of it) and then he has to continue aggressive expansion. And the mainstream west's fundamental misunderstanding of this leads some to believe in certain strategies that simply don't work. This is going to continue until it physically can't anymore.

---

Made a minor edit.

Thinking a civilization that has done pretty decent over the last 500 1000 years is in its last decade defies logic and ignores history.

It is a predominantly Christian country with vast natural resources and infrastructure. Oh, they also still have a couple nukes left in storage here and there with advanced missile delivery systems that exceed US capabilities (at least to public knowledge).

They may be incapable of growing and expanding at the moment, but doing so is not critical to their survival.

Russia would do well to get back to a monarchy structure and give up on ideas of democracy. They are a people who like to be RULED and both democracy and communism keep devolving into ruthless dictatorships.

Back on the topic of food, I do tend to like a good chicken kiev and beef strokinoff.

pagerman @ work said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Eliminatus said:

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pagerman @ work said:

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BusterAg said:

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BlueSmoke said:

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NOT covered under article 5....YUGE!

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explain that, please, for the casual f16 news absorber.

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What it means is that Putin can attack European troops that are part of the peacekeeping force and it will not be seen as an attack on NATO.

It's a ridiculous notion and serves to absolutely gut the authority of any European troops participating in the peacekeeping efforts.

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Gotta agree. The whole point of peacekeeping troops is that they are meant to be a trip wire. If there is nothing on the end of that trip wire though, it nullifies the entire concept. This may just be kicking the can down the road, again. Massive mistake IMO, but honestly expected given his stances even before his nomination.

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Europe should pay for the trip wire. Not the US.

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Again, keeping Article 5 as a deterrent to Russia costs the US precisely nothing. At all.

---

Unless that trip wire ends up activating article 5 and mandating an American military response. Then the cost is enormous. Up to and including nuclear launch if the Russians are in fact crazy enough.

Actual Talking Thermos said:

---

You've been to Italy? France? Germany? And the food and beer were bad?

E: I'll grant you that Heineken is trash, but fritessaus (which is not the same as American mayo) is the best fries condiment

---

Mayo on fries? Yeah you are a beta liberal

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

Ags4DaWin said:

---

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

Ags4DaWin said:

---

Hullabaloonatic said:

---

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ags4DaWin said:

---

rgag12 said:

---

I think Europe should guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty in a separate agreement outside of NATO. Otherwise Russia will be tempted to recoup what it sees it "lost" in the upcoming treaty in the future.

---

Nope. That is for Europe to do.

If Europe wants to protect Ukraine then they better ****ing do it.

The US has to worry about China and keeping them from global hegemony. We can't do that and protect Europe's backyard at the same time.

They need to do some of their own goddam heavy lifting for once.

---

Well said, Not our war not our problem. America first.

---

Meanwhile, Trump: "We're going to take Gaza"

So is it America first? or no new wars? or...how do we slogan this contradiction?


Also, Hegseth saying that NATO is off the table and re-establishing borders from 2014 is not happening...why is he just giving away negotiating chips with Russia? Why concede these in public if Trump just started his negotiations with Putin?

---

You don't know what's going on here. Sit down I will explain it to you.

Trump isn't giving away negotiating chips.

Trump IS chipping away at Putin's publicly stated reasons for going into Ukraine in the first place. Putin has publicly declared that this is a NOBLE WAR for the benefit of oppressed peoples, root out corruption and Nazis, and to defend Russia from those who would attack her.

Putin has said that invading Ukraine was necessary because
1) crimes against humanity regarding ethnic Russians and prorussian people in the Donbas region
2) the USA threatened to annex Ukraine into NATO which would put us missiles in Russia's backyard
3) corruption in Ukraine that was affecting Russians (Ukraine's US funded bioweapons lab)

Now if Trump tells putin that NATO admission is off the table, and that the Donbas regions are not going g to return to Ukraine that means that Putin now has very few reasons and excuses to continue a NOBLE and JUSTIFIED war.

If Putin pivots and says the war is still necessary then he is showing his ass to the world.

Putin is a bully but he's also not ******ed. You can't claim you are fighting a "NOBLE" war if all the noble reasons are addressed.

Trump is taking away Putin's ability to call the war a "noble" undertaking which means if putin continues the war then he shows the world that he is the villain in the story.

That puts the ball squarely in Putin's court.

If Putin decides to publicly turn heel then that gives the rest of the world the excuse to take the gloves off and make attacking internal Russian territory fair game.

Putin doesn't want that. There has so far been a gentleman's agreement to not give Ukraine offensive weapons capable of hitting Russia.

Putin shows his ass now and that agreement goes out the window. Putin doesn't want that.

---

Let's say this is true: The plan only works if you're actually willing to give Ukraine the ability to hit them hard in the scenario where Putin doesn't back down. Otherwise it's just hollow posturing.

It also fails to recognize the real reason for this conflict that Putin is using the "noble war" lie to distract from. That real reason doesn't really give him the option to back down.

---

Half of international relations is creating the perception that what your doing is justified which gives allies reasons to aid you and legitimacy to your regime and actions.

For example-

1) being recognized as a country...once you are recognized it opens the door for all sorts of foreign aid.
2) justified vs unjustified wars- gives other countries legitimate ways to help you.

If we take away the appearance of legitimacy to further war then Russia has two choices-

A) continue the war knowing that other countries now have the "freedom" to put their own soldiers on the ground to help Ukraine defend itself and counterattack into Russia proper. This then ALSO gives Europe a legitimate reason to give Ukraine missiles that can be used to strike into Russia proper, something Europe has not yet done as part of the gentleman's agreement. This possibility will scare the hell out of Putin. Moscow is ridiculously close to Ukraine's border 490 kM or appr. 250 miles. If Ukraine is given missiles with even a decent strike range then Moscow then becomes fair game for Ukraine to strike.

B) take your win and go home. Russia has achieved all of its noble stated objectives- freed Donbas from the oppression of western Ukraine, uncovered illegal US bioweapons labs in Ukraine and shut them down, and regained access to the black sea via Crimea.

The cost of Russia engaging in a war in which Moscow becomes fair game for missile strikes is not worth what little else they would gain from continued war.

Trump giving them their "noble" win allows them to quit while they are ahead and claim the Noble Victory Putin desires. From their it will be on Europe to finally get their militaries on line to ensure Putin doesn't get itchy again.

Additionally they need to stop thinking they can do whatever they want because the Americans will come in to save them.

Sometimes you negotiate with a stick via Teddy Roosevelt.

Sometimes the previous administration ****s up so bad you have to give your adversary a way to gracefully claim victory because the previous administration ****ed up any way to force concessions without engaging in all out war and risk nuclear holocaust.

The US is not in a position to force concessions and any attempt to negotiate from a position of power is just going to make the situation worse....the US has no power here. We blew our wad because we were slinging our dick around like we were the biggest kid on the block and Putin called our bluff.

And now that our wad is shot we need to realm and prepare for the upcoming conflict with China....because that has been half of the game being played here- China watching and testing the waters to see just how worn down the US military has become due to its endless wars in the middle east and just how much of a materiale reserve we can muster if they decide to act on some of their designs on countries like Taiwan.

What has happened here is the second option. Trump knows this. He knows the only big stick we can wave at this point js going to all out war and there is ZERO reason we should risk that for a piece of **** land like Ukraine.

If Obama had let Ukraine continue to be Russia's puppet instead of forcibly installing a Russia antagonistic regime and laundering their dirty money through the new government (which was just as corrupt as the Russian government btw) then this would never have happened.

Putin isn't a dumbass.

---

This is an existential war for survival for Russia. They are a dying civilization both demographically and culturally. They are in their last decade or so of being able to wage war like this. It's a war that was always going to happen because of this.

The real reason for this is the same reason Russia has been doing this for the last 500 years: They are attempting to expand and regain various geographic choke points that allow them to both better defend their country from invasion, and to expand their population.

Putin can't back down because, from his perspective, that's not an option. He has to keep going until he has Ukraine (all of it) and then he has to continue aggressive expansion. And the mainstream west's fundamental misunderstanding of this leads some to believe in certain strategies that simply don't work. This is going to continue until it physically can't anymore.

---

I keep hearing this "expand to the gaps" strategy and just don't know if I buy it. I get that the gaps have been historically relevant. I get that Russians think differently. I get that the Russians don't love NATO. What I don't get is why Putin would be shaking in his boots about conventional invasion.

The resource & market control factors seem like far more compelling reasons to me.

I may be wrong, but The Blob has been pushing the gap message hard while the oil motivations get downplayed. I'm skeptical that it's not overplayed for the purpose of creating a noble narrative that absolves The Blob of any economic instigation.

I'm open-handed here: I may be totally wrong… I just put myself in Putin's shoes and look at modern demilitarized Europe and am left scratching my head about the supposed threat it poses.

flown-the-coop said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

---

This is an existential war for survival for Putin Russia. They are He is a dying man civilization both demographically and culturally. They are in their last decade or so of being able to wage war like this. It's a war that was always going to happen because of this.

The real reason for this is the same reason Russia has been doing this for the last 500 years: They are attempting to expand and regain various geographic choke points that allow them to both better defend their country from invasion, and to expand their population.

Putin can't back down because, from his perspective, that's not an option. He has to keep going until he has Ukraine (all of it) and then he has to continue aggressive expansion. And the mainstream west's fundamental misunderstanding of this leads some to believe in certain strategies that simply don't work. This is going to continue until it physically can't anymore.

---

Made a minor edit.

Thinking a civilization that has done pretty decent over the last 500 1000 years is in its last decade defies logic and ignores history.

It is a predominantly Christian country with vast natural resources and infrastructure. Oh, they also still have a couple nukes left in storage here and there with advanced missile delivery systems that exceed US capabilities (at least to public knowledge).

They may be incapable of growing and expanding at the moment, but doing so is not critical to their survival.

Russia would do well to get back to a monarchy structure and give up on ideas of democracy. They are a people who like to be RULED and both democracy and communism keep devolving into ruthless dictatorships.

Back on the topic of food, I do tend to like a good chicken kiev and beef strokinoff.

---

They're running out of fighting age men, and in the long term running out of people in general. They are in the midst of an irreversible terminal demographic collapse. The Russian ethnicity is on pace to be extinct by 2150, but the organized Russian state will obviously collapse LONG before that. This isn't there last decade as a nation state, but it is the last decade in which they will have enough men of the appropriate age to wage large scale war.

Math and birth/death rates don't care about history. The reality is inescapable.

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

This is an existential war for survival for Putin Russia. They are He is a dying man civilization both demographically and culturally. They are in their last decade or so of being able to wage war like this. It's a war that was always going to happen because of this.

The real reason for this is the same reason Russia has been doing this for the last 500 years: They are attempting to expand and regain various geographic choke points that allow them to both better defend their country from invasion, and to expand their population.

Putin can't back down because, from his perspective, that's not an option. He has to keep going until he has Ukraine (all of it) and then he has to continue aggressive expansion. And the mainstream west's fundamental misunderstanding of this leads some to believe in certain strategies that simply don't work. This is going to continue until it physically can't anymore.

---

Made a minor edit.

Thinking a civilization that has done pretty decent over the last 500 1000 years is in its last decade defies logic and ignores history.

It is a predominantly Christian country with vast natural resources and infrastructure. Oh, they also still have a couple nukes left in storage here and there with advanced missile delivery systems that exceed US capabilities (at least to public knowledge).

They may be incapable of growing and expanding at the moment, but doing so is not critical to their survival.

Russia would do well to get back to a monarchy structure and give up on ideas of democracy. They are a people who like to be RULED and both democracy and communism keep devolving into ruthless dictatorships.

Back on the topic of food, I do tend to like a good chicken kiev and beef strokinoff.

---

They're running out of fighting age men, and on the long term running out of people in general. They are in the midst of an irreversible terminal demographic collapse.

Math and birth/death rates don't care about history. The reality is inescapable.

---

A country with lots of natural resources is never at risk of birth/death rates.

I would bet money on Russia getting Sweden and Norway before Russia collapses. This would be due to a civil war in Sweden and Norway against their Muslim invaders. Russians would come in and "save" the day.

Get Off My Lawn said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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Ags4DaWin said:

---

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

Ags4DaWin said:

---

Hullabaloonatic said:

---

PlaneCrashGuy said:

---

Ags4DaWin said:

---

rgag12 said:

---

I think Europe should guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty in a separate agreement outside of NATO. Otherwise Russia will be tempted to recoup what it sees it "lost" in the upcoming treaty in the future.

---

Nope. That is for Europe to do.

If Europe wants to protect Ukraine then they better ****ing do it.

The US has to worry about China and keeping them from global hegemony. We can't do that and protect Europe's backyard at the same time.

They need to do some of their own goddam heavy lifting for once.

---

Well said, Not our war not our problem. America first.

---

Meanwhile, Trump: "We're going to take Gaza"

So is it America first? or no new wars? or...how do we slogan this contradiction?


Also, Hegseth saying that NATO is off the table and re-establishing borders from 2014 is not happening...why is he just giving away negotiating chips with Russia? Why concede these in public if Trump just started his negotiations with Putin?

---

You don't know what's going on here. Sit down I will explain it to you.

Trump isn't giving away negotiating chips.

Trump IS chipping away at Putin's publicly stated reasons for going into Ukraine in the first place. Putin has publicly declared that this is a NOBLE WAR for the benefit of oppressed peoples, root out corruption and Nazis, and to defend Russia from those who would attack her.

Putin has said that invading Ukraine was necessary because
1) crimes against humanity regarding ethnic Russians and prorussian people in the Donbas region
2) the USA threatened to annex Ukraine into NATO which would put us missiles in Russia's backyard
3) corruption in Ukraine that was affecting Russians (Ukraine's US funded bioweapons lab)

Now if Trump tells putin that NATO admission is off the table, and that the Donbas regions are not going g to return to Ukraine that means that Putin now has very few reasons and excuses to continue a NOBLE and JUSTIFIED war.

If Putin pivots and says the war is still necessary then he is showing his ass to the world.

Putin is a bully but he's also not ******ed. You can't claim you are fighting a "NOBLE" war if all the noble reasons are addressed.

Trump is taking away Putin's ability to call the war a "noble" undertaking which means if putin continues the war then he shows the world that he is the villain in the story.

That puts the ball squarely in Putin's court.

If Putin decides to publicly turn heel then that gives the rest of the world the excuse to take the gloves off and make attacking internal Russian territory fair game.

Putin doesn't want that. There has so far been a gentleman's agreement to not give Ukraine offensive weapons capable of hitting Russia.

Putin shows his ass now and that agreement goes out the window. Putin doesn't want that.

---

Let's say this is true: The plan only works if you're actually willing to give Ukraine the ability to hit them hard in the scenario where Putin doesn't back down. Otherwise it's just hollow posturing.

It also fails to recognize the real reason for this conflict that Putin is using the "noble war" lie to distract from. That real reason doesn't really give him the option to back down.

---

Half of international relations is creating the perception that what your doing is justified which gives allies reasons to aid you and legitimacy to your regime and actions.

For example-

1) being recognized as a country...once you are recognized it opens the door for all sorts of foreign aid.
2) justified vs unjustified wars- gives other countries legitimate ways to help you.

If we take away the appearance of legitimacy to further war then Russia has two choices-

A) continue the war knowing that other countries now have the "freedom" to put their own soldiers on the ground to help Ukraine defend itself and counterattack into Russia proper. This then ALSO gives Europe a legitimate reason to give Ukraine missiles that can be used to strike into Russia proper, something Europe has not yet done as part of the gentleman's agreement. This possibility will scare the hell out of Putin. Moscow is ridiculously close to Ukraine's border 490 kM or appr. 250 miles. If Ukraine is given missiles with even a decent strike range then Moscow then becomes fair game for Ukraine to strike.

B) take your win and go home. Russia has achieved all of its noble stated objectives- freed Donbas from the oppression of western Ukraine, uncovered illegal US bioweapons labs in Ukraine and shut them down, and regained access to the black sea via Crimea.

The cost of Russia engaging in a war in which Moscow becomes fair game for missile strikes is not worth what little else they would gain from continued war.

Trump giving them their "noble" win allows them to quit while they are ahead and claim the Noble Victory Putin desires. From their it will be on Europe to finally get their militaries on line to ensure Putin doesn't get itchy again.

Additionally they need to stop thinking they can do whatever they want because the Americans will come in to save them.

Sometimes you negotiate with a stick via Teddy Roosevelt.

Sometimes the previous administration ****s up so bad you have to give your adversary a way to gracefully claim victory because the previous administration ****ed up any way to force concessions without engaging in all out war and risk nuclear holocaust.

The US is not in a position to force concessions and any attempt to negotiate from a position of power is just going to make the situation worse....the US has no power here. We blew our wad because we were slinging our dick around like we were the biggest kid on the block and Putin called our bluff.

And now that our wad is shot we need to realm and prepare for the upcoming conflict with China....because that has been half of the game being played here- China watching and testing the waters to see just how worn down the US military has become due to its endless wars in the middle east and just how much of a materiale reserve we can muster if they decide to act on some of their designs on countries like Taiwan.

What has happened here is the second option. Trump knows this. He knows the only big stick we can wave at this point js going to all out war and there is ZERO reason we should risk that for a piece of **** land like Ukraine.

If Obama had let Ukraine continue to be Russia's puppet instead of forcibly installing a Russia antagonistic regime and laundering their dirty money through the new government (which was just as corrupt as the Russian government btw) then this would never have happened.

Putin isn't a dumbass.

---

This is an existential war for survival for Russia. They are a dying civilization both demographically and culturally. They are in their last decade or so of being able to wage war like this. It's a war that was always going to happen because of this.

The real reason for this is the same reason Russia has been doing this for the last 500 years: They are attempting to expand and regain various geographic choke points that allow them to both better defend their country from invasion, and to expand their population.

Putin can't back down because, from his perspective, that's not an option. He has to keep going until he has Ukraine (all of it) and then he has to continue aggressive expansion. And the mainstream west's fundamental misunderstanding of this leads some to believe in certain strategies that simply don't work. This is going to continue until it physically can't anymore.

---

I keep hearing this "expand to the gaps" strategy and just don't know if I buy it. I get that the gaps have been historically relevant. I get that Russians think differently. I get that the Russians don't love NATO. What I don't get is why Putin would be shaking in his boots about conventional invasion.

The resource & market control factors seem like far more compelling reasons to me.

I may be wrong, but The Blob has been pushing the gap message hard while the oil motivations get downplayed. I'm skeptical that it's not overplayed for the purpose of creating a noble narrative that absolves The Blob of any economic instigation.

I'm open-handed here: I may be totally wrong… I just put myself in Putin's shoes and look at modern demilitarized Europe and am left scratching my head about the supposed threat it poses.

---

You and I have never had French legions, Panzer divisions and Mongol hordes run through the vast unprotected flat plains of our nation and threaten its very existence.

Russia's history is nothing but an endless cycle of mass death trying to fend off other civilizations attempting to wipe them out. It's so ingrained in their psyche that they will always view the world through this lens and it's something we can't understand.

I don't remember who said it, but the quote about the west believing we are in a post-historical era following the end of the Cold War being our downfall is holding true to date. The way Americans and Western Europeans think that the rules that governed human civilization forever just ceased when the Berlin Wall fell may be our undoing. But Russians not only believe that NATO will one day can ride into Moscow as conquerors, they expect it.

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

They're running out of fighting age men, and on the long term running out of people in general. They are in the midst of an irreversible terminal demographic collapse.

Math and birth/death rates don't care about history. The reality is inescapable.

---

So they disappear one day like Atlantis?

They have over 140 million people, more than Japan.

Despite people wanting to see civilizations disappear due to birth rates v death rates, I struggle to think of a single civilization in history that had this happen. Maybe our ancestral Denisovans and Neanderthals.

BTW - Trump just said in the Oval that he wants Russia back in the G8. Russia is not going away.

Edited to Add: I am well aware there are civilizations that went away due to famine, disease and conquistadors. But if folks think famine and disease would be allowed to wipe away a country of a 140 million people with vast resources and nuclear weapons, that seems bizarre. Also, nuclear weapons are effective against conquistadors.

texagbeliever said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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This is an existential war for survival for Putin Russia. They are He is a dying man civilization both demographically and culturally. They are in their last decade or so of being able to wage war like this. It's a war that was always going to happen because of this.

The real reason for this is the same reason Russia has been doing this for the last 500 years: They are attempting to expand and regain various geographic choke points that allow them to both better defend their country from invasion, and to expand their population.

Putin can't back down because, from his perspective, that's not an option. He has to keep going until he has Ukraine (all of it) and then he has to continue aggressive expansion. And the mainstream west's fundamental misunderstanding of this leads some to believe in certain strategies that simply don't work. This is going to continue until it physically can't anymore.

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Made a minor edit.

Thinking a civilization that has done pretty decent over the last 500 1000 years is in its last decade defies logic and ignores history.

It is a predominantly Christian country with vast natural resources and infrastructure. Oh, they also still have a couple nukes left in storage here and there with advanced missile delivery systems that exceed US capabilities (at least to public knowledge).

They may be incapable of growing and expanding at the moment, but doing so is not critical to their survival.

Russia would do well to get back to a monarchy structure and give up on ideas of democracy. They are a people who like to be RULED and both democracy and communism keep devolving into ruthless dictatorships.

Back on the topic of food, I do tend to like a good chicken kiev and beef strokinoff.

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They're running out of fighting age men, and on the long term running out of people in general. They are in the midst of an irreversible terminal demographic collapse.

Math and birth/death rates don't care about history. The reality is inescapable.

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A country with lots of natural resources is never at risk of birth/death rates.

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This is incoherent

flown-the-coop said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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They're running out of fighting age men, and on the long term running out of people in general. They are in the midst of an irreversible terminal demographic collapse.

Math and birth/death rates don't care about history. The reality is inescapable.

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So they disappear one day like Atlantis?

They have over 140 million people, more than Japan.

Despite people wanting to see civilizations disappear due to birth rates v death rates, I struggle to think of a single civilization in history that had this happen. Maybe our ancestral Denisovans and Neanderthals.

BTW - Trump just said in the Oval that he wants Russia back in the G8. Russia is not going away.

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Tell me you don't know history without telling me you don't know history,

Quote:

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So they disappear one day like Atlantis?

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They devolve into multiple regions/states ruled by various individuals and eventually get sequentially absorbed by more powerful nation state, either in desperation or as conquered peoples.

You know, the same thing that happened to every civilization that collapsed for all of human history.

pagerman @ work said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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They're running out of fighting age men, and on the long term running out of people in general. They are in the midst of an irreversible terminal demographic collapse.

Math and birth/death rates don't care about history. The reality is inescapable.

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So they disappear one day like Atlantis?

They have over 140 million people, more than Japan.

Despite people wanting to see civilizations disappear due to birth rates v death rates, I struggle to think of a single civilization in history that had this happen. Maybe our ancestral Denisovans and Neanderthals.

BTW - Trump just said in the Oval that he wants Russia back in the G8. Russia is not going away.

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Tell me you don't know history without telling me you don't know history,

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Tell us what you know.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Quote:

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So they disappear one day like Atlantis?

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They devolve into multiple regions/states ruled by various individuals and eventually get sequentially absorbed by more powerful nation state, either in desperation or as conquered peoples.

You know, the same thing that happened to every civilization that collapsed for all of human history.

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Germany survived TWO world wars against them. Yet somehow there is still a country there. Did I miss them becoming assimilated into Europe?

Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

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Trump to Zelenskyy:

Look dude. This war is over. Putin and I will figure it out and let you know what we agree to.

Then you're paying back every red cent of what we gave you and then some. If you don't like it we will sanction you into the Stone Age.

Wait for my secretary's email with your homework of what to sign and when. I'll be sending over Hecla and Southern copper to start surveying those mining sites next week. Make sure they don't have any bull**** to put up with while they are there.

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This is penthouse letters fiction level of delusion.

We don't get a cent back if that's the case. There isn't a country left to give them. And the best part is all your fake bravado does is give everything of value to Russia. That's idiotic.

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Rare earth minerals that China and others covet to the tune of 500 billion worth we get to take is nothing of value?

Seems you're too emotionally attached to this to make sense.

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Someone is. Russia gets those minerals not us. And China, India, Iran are their allies. That's who would get them.

Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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Ags4DaWin said:

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rgag12 said:

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I think Europe should guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty in a separate agreement outside of NATO. Otherwise Russia will be tempted to recoup what it sees it "lost" in the upcoming treaty in the future.

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Nope. That is for Europe to do.

If Europe wants to protect Ukraine then they better ****ing do it.

The US has to worry about China and keeping them from global hegemony. We can't do that and protect Europe's backyard at the same time.

They need to do some of their own goddam heavy lifting for once.

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You don't get it. We don't negotiate for their rare earth metals (in eastern Ukraine near the fighting) and not guarantee their safety. We don't get them without it.

That's why it's hilarious to see the first couple of pages of this thread. This place is nothing but parroting talking points without understanding anything.

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The **** we don't

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So you think we won't get F'ed by Russia? Because we will. That's the only other way to try and get them.

Only a fool makes that deal

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What deal? What if Russia offers a good deal?

You're saying it's foolish to trust them for anything? Just as a blanket assumption?

Cool I'm the fool. Nice.

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BTW. The last deal the US and Russia made regarding Ukraine was in 2011. You know the one where Ukraine agreed to give up their nuclear weapons for security assurances from the United States, Russia and Britain. As you can see. It meant absolutely nothing.

Just like all the fluff in most of this thread.

HoustonAg9999 said:

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Actual Talking Thermos said:

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You've been to Italy? France? Germany? And the food and beer were bad?

E: I'll grant you that Heineken is trash, but fritessaus (which is not the same as American mayo) is the best fries condiment

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Mayo on fries? Yeah you are a beta liberal

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Yet you dip yours in a fruit puree

CyclingAg82 said:

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He is sending a message to Europe that they need to put more in their defense budgets and stop relying on the USA as the primary deterrent force.

He is imploring them elevate their ability to fight and defend, and if something happens USA will be there to support.

IMO This was needed and is good for the long term in Europe.

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Long overdue.

flown-the-coop said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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Quote:

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So they disappear one day like Atlantis?

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They devolve into multiple regions/states ruled by various individuals and eventually get sequentially absorbed by more powerful nation state, either in desperation or as conquered peoples.

You know, the same thing that happened to every civilization that collapsed for all of human history.

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Germany survived TWO world wars against them. Yet somehow there is still a country there. Did I miss them becoming assimilated into Europe?

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You missed the 20th and 21st century demographic shift and birth rate decline

Times are a changing, and the consequences of industrialization 150 years ago are finally catching up to most of the world. We built the modern world on the back of people moving to cities and having less kids, but now we have to find a way to deal with the fallout. Places like Russia like are much further along than we are have no options but mass immigration, which is cultural suicide, or mass territorial expansion. It's too late for them to solve the problem any other way.

The question we need to be asking is how do we avoid being in their position 40-50 years from now.

I have worked in various places in the middle of nowhere in many EU countries. Where ever you go you will find villages where there was total destruction, death and/or forcefully moved to far away lands. It is really crazy. So much war and violence through their existence.

Mr. Fingerbottom said:

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Time to kill a whole lotta cartel members instead of giving money to pos zelensky to play patty cake

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This and get China out of our half of the world.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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You missed the 20th and 21st century demographic shift and birth rate decline

Times are a changing, and the consequences of industrialization 150 years ago are finally catching up to most of the world. We built the modern world on the back of people moving to cities and having less kids, but now we have to find a way to deal with the fallout. Places like Russia like are much further along than we are have no options but mass immigration, which is cultural suicide, or mass territorial expansion. It's too late for them to solve the problem any other way.

The question we need to be asking is how do we avoid being in their position 40-50 years from now.

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Why do we need more and more people? We are not building pyramids in the desert (or S American jungle), any idea of hand to hand combat being the next phase of war seems off the mark, and when you are more efficient you need less people.

To be honest, Russia, Japan and others are AHEAD of where America needs to get to, not behind.

We don't need more people, we just need to stabilize the population. Russia's population will decline by half by the end of the century, and by 70% in the next hundred years. It is going to absolutely collapse. China is even worse off. China's population will be below 500 million by 2100, and that's without factoring in the famines that will kill tens or hundreds of millions as a result of the population and agricultural collapse.

You only need exponentially increasing population numbers when you have a government predicated on a ponzi scheme that requires ever increasing tax revenue generated by consumption based economy driven by a population whose daily existence is focused on acquisition of cheap meaningless crap and momentary distraction. Equilibrium is possible but not under our existing debt financed pseudo-socialist government.

Tend to agree with your take.

All these models are just that- models.

They don't take into account chance, or the fact that humans run this planet not because as a species we were the strongest, the fastest or the best...but because humans creatures are ingenious AF.

Humanity will find a way. Russians are nothing if not resilient. They have persisted as a nation in times that 90% of other civilizations would have collapsed and begged to be taken over and then come back swinging.

Oh, I get the argument - I've listened to enough Zeihan to know The Blob's rhetoric about Russia's plan & motivations. My point is that the European threat is about as far from imminent as it has been in 80 years. Military, economically, culturally, demographically, interdependently: Europe is laughably far from being able to invade Russia. Putin's only threat from the west would be the United States, and he has nukes for that.

That's why the Gasprom story resonates much more clearly for me. Instead of "Putin will stop at nothing to get to the gaps because of history & after Ukraine - Poland WILL be next!" it says "Putin is fighting against the economic destruction that would result from losing the position as Europe's energy supplier."

Again - Russians see things differently and I am open to being wrong: but I still see the later as a more coherent justification.