FancyKetchup14 said:
FYI this does not include mail in voting
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5% is a key number.
In Germany, you vote twice--once for a constituency election (individual candidates), and the other for a party list. If a party gets 5% of the vote nationwide, then they get proportional representation in parliament (folks from a party list get seats). So, you can have a party that doesn't win a single constituency end up getting a big chunk of seats. The FDP is sort of a free market party that has been in the current coalition, but if the early numbers are correct, they will get wiped out. So, the CDU, having ruled out working with the AfD, will have to form a coalition with leftist parties (which could take months).
Bottom line: expect very little to change, beyond the tone of the Chancellor.
ETA:
These are the projections
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If the CDU agreed to form a coaltion with the AfD, they would easily exceed the 316 seats needed for a majority. Instead, they will team up with the socialists to get the requisite number, which means that whatever policies they adopt will have to be acceptable to their coalition partners.