Anecdotal Tarriff Fall Out For China

6,626 Views | 44 Replies | Last: 12 mo ago by nortex97
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4 said:

FarmerJohn said:

And Xi's hero is Mao. There won't be a negotiation.

There will be and it's likely happening now using back channels.

Xi won't do it in public to save face, but he will do it.

The negotiations aren't about their citizenry, it's about their money which they have to have in order to continue to achieve their own goals.

They will bend, and they will bend soon.

As I was saying...

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/china-caving-trumps-trade-war-strategy-expert-signals

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/04/25/business/china-us-tariffs-semiconductors-exemptions-hnk-intl
Martels Hammer
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I trust Trump for a lot of things. But I sure hope he understands that the Chinese would rather watch their country burn rather than look weak or lose face.

Giving China some sort of token "win" will be necessary.
nortex97
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Negotiators at US Treasury?

A G20 meeting, but still. China cancelled a 'lot' of pork shipments as I'd hoped. They dominate our pork market, fwiw.

I read somewhere this afternoon Trump is going to reciprocate to de-escalate. Redstate: Winning.

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Although, to be fair, it looks like over the past three days or so, the market has stabilized, with the Dow in the neighborhood around 40,000. It's no longer reacting wildly to every announcement. So that might align with what Wong is saying. This will help to shore that up further.

China signaled on Wednesday that it was open to trade talks with the U.S. The reason they're dropping things quietly is that they don't want to be seen as having blinked, but it's still positive movement. The Trump team had indicated they would be open to reductions in tariffs, but not unilaterally.
Gaeilge
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Should force the WH Group to divest in Smithfield. Obama was a ****ing moron for letting that go through.
nortex97
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100 percent agree.
91AggieLawyer
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javajaws said:

KingofHazor said:

javajaws said:

Since this thread is about anecdotal affects - I'll add that one of my hobbies is board games - and I'm not talking about the crap kind you get from Hasbro, etc. This is an entire industry that works on a model of design in America (and other countries) and manufacture in China. And there are no real alternatives to China. None of these game publishers has the size or capital to startup such wide-scale manufacturing capabilities.

To make it worse typically what happens in this industry is that manufacturing is paid for up front and months later everything is shipped at once to the US. Well, with tariffs the majority of these publishers are now facing a predicament of not being able to pay for the tariffs even though they paid the manufacturing costs months ago. Many are playing a wait and see game right now and paying additional storage costs in China to see if they can wait it out. Some have already announced layoffs and closings.

To make it even worse, there is the Kickstarter/Gamefound business model as well where publishers pre-sell a game direct to consumers and retailers before it is even finished (and most importantly before it is manufactured). So people like myself have already pre-paid for games months ago but now all of those games are being held up from being shipped to the US for the same reasons. Many of these publishers will go under if this doesn't get resolved within the next 30-60 days resulting in thousands more in job losses as well as the shutdown of practically an entire industry in the US.

Trump really should have excluded products that were already bought and paid for but not shipped from this boondoggle. But like always he chose the blunt force trauma approach and damn the consequences.
I couldn't disagree more. First, if the Trump team had waited until it figured out all of the details of their actions, it would have taken them 20 years to get started. In other words, it would never have happened. They had to move forward quickly and immediately and correct mistakes as they moved forward.

Second, when major national policy decisions are made, some individuals and companies will inevitably get hurt. When we closed so many bases in the early 90s, many small local businesses around those bases were wiped out. It was bad for those businesses, but we couldn't keep all of the bases open just to protect Tony's Pizza or Joe's dry cleaning.

Finally, most of us have been demanding change, knowing that the status quo was unsustainable. But now that change is occurring, and most of us are feeling pain, it's more than ironic that some are crying that they didn't know that change might hurt them.


I couldn't disagree more. And trying to equate a mass change in tariff policy with a base closing? For real? Man some of you'll are really walking around with blinders on.

This is no way to run a country. I agree in getting fair trade agreements worked out and getting critical manufacturing done in the US. But Trump is not being very smart with how he gets it done.

Honestly, you couldn't be missing the point more, and it shows by you ignoring virtually all of what he wrote other than the base closure thing. Contrary to your assertion, it IS a valid comparison or analogy. You don't even refute it, you just ridicule it, hoping THAT will suffice. It doesn't.

Then you go about trying to insult everyone that doesn't agree with you.

The fact is, that while free trade is always the best policy, so are good business practices in general IF the parties are going to be honorable. Some people aren't and try and abuse the relationship. This whole China thing is like the landlord who allows a tenant to stay in the property based on promises to pay eventually. Often, that won't happen and the landlord would be far better off spending the money to go through the eviction process and even losing out on rent income in the short term to get a quality tenant in the property when possible.

In macro economic policy making, the small firm's short term survival can't be factored in IF the overall policy change will potentially be successful. If you're going to argue it won't (which you didn't), THEN that might be one thing. Small, undercapitalized firms go out of business every day for all sorts of reasons. Fixing the tariff policies in this country is well worth the short term issues, especially with firms that had absolutely no forethought to finding additional supply chain outlets. Considering the government put a lot of firms out of business with covid related policies, this frankly isn't an issue.
nortex97
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Gaeilge said:

Should force the WH Group to divest in Smithfield. Obama was a ****ing moron for letting that go through.

It's starting to have the impact I'd hoped for on our pork prices (yes, though I realize this isn't Smithfield).
EX TEXASEX
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Quote:

Stalin was close to Mao in exterminating 20 million or more.
No need to lowball Mao's accomplishments !!! upwards of 70 million. The Great Leap forward killed around 40- 50 million. Then throw in Pol Pot and Cambodia where in 4 years he and the Khmer Rouge Killed up to a 3rd of the population. The all happened because of Mao .The ****er ( Pol Pot ) never served a day in Jail. We should have had the CIA executed him !!!
nortex97
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Some hopeful signs within China.

Some of that is based on Mike Baker's podcast the past few days/weeks.


I really like Mike's podcast, but note he 'was' CIA.
nortex97
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"End of regime conduct?" I am not getting my hopes up but it's interesting commentary.
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Something is "very, very wrong" in Beijing right now, according to foreign policy expert Gordon Chang, who is signaling more "end-of-regime conduct" coming out of Xi Jinping's China.
"At a time when China needs friends because it's not selling goods to the U.S., it is going out of its way to antagonize not just the Philippines, not just Taiwan, but also South Korea and Australia," Chang, a senior fellow with the Gatestone Institute, said on "Mornings with Maria" Monday.
China's increasing bellicosity has been apparent for some time now; I've commented on it many times. However, as Gordon Chang points out, China is beset with problems, not least of which is Chairman Xi.
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"Jinping has configured the Chinese political system so that it is hostile. And also, because he's been making the claim that China has surpassed the U.S., he can't look dependent on trade with the U.S.," Chang explained. "And he certainly can't look like he's talking to the U.S. under pressure."
"This is really very perplexing behavior, and it shows that something is very, very wrong in Beijing right now."
What's interesting about the tariff situation is that China, and we can safely substitute "Chinese Communist Party" for "China" in this discussion, is adding to a list of items it's exempting from retaliatory tariffs. While Chairman Xi is loudly proclaiming China's strength in this matter, the fact that this list is growing tells us that China is backing down. They are backing down slowly and in increments, but they are backing down
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China has a lot of internal problems, not the least of which is a demographic collapse, thanks to its former (and idiotic) one-child policy. Their supposedly booming real estate market is a coat of paint over a pile of rotten timbers, and their economy is heavily dependent on the markets of the West, particularly the United States.
Chairman Xi knows all of this, of course. But he is in a more tenuous position than we might think; China has a number of weaknesses, but he cannot admit them, or make any concessions that reveal any vulnerabilities.
Which makes one wonder if he may decide to attempt some kind of military solution.
In the Fox Business interview, Gordon Chang concludes:
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"China, without any announcements, is not collecting tariffs on important goods. So for instance, some semiconductors, aviation products, industrial chemicals, medical devices, some medicines," he listed.
"This is going to expand," Chang predicted. "It means that China has made an important concession. But it's not saying it's making a concession, which is a fascinating insight into the Chinese political system right now, which has become both intransigent and inflexible."

The TDS/Leftist alliance will not like that one bit.
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