Russo Ukrainian peace on a knife's edge

88,960 Views | 1036 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by nortex97
GAC06
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This thread was quiet for a while. How did we make it a week and a half without daily Russia Today updates?
Who?mikejones!
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oh no
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Who?mikejones! said:


yeah no ***** Biden's embarrassing and weak exit from Afghanistan emboldened bad actors around the globe including Putin and then Biden dared him to make a move with his "minor incursion" public comments. I don't think either of things happen without vegetable in chief.
oh no
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Who?mikejones! said:



Ill put this here too.
my maternal grandmother, my babushka, who was born and raised in Kiev USSR, would agree. she hated how corrupt the new state of Ukraine was, didn't recognize them, and considered herself Russian until the day she died and I know she's not the only person from Kiev who felt that way.
Teslag
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oh no said:

Who?mikejones! said:



Ill put this here too.
my maternal grandmother, my babushka, who was born and raised in Kiev USSR, would agree. she hated how corrupt the new state of Ukraine was, didn't recognize them, and considered herself Russian until the day she died and I know she's not the only person from Kiev who felt that way.


She's not the only, but she's definitely in the minority. Ukrainians voted overwhelmingly for independence from Russia and to be recognized as a sovereign independent nation.

The Kiev Oblast, home of your Russian babushka, voted for independence with 95% in favor. She wasn't just a minority, but an extreme outlier.
oh no
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but by sovereign independence, they didn't mean having a CIA-backed coup to install a pro-western anti-russian government, chem labs, constant nato flirtations, all rife with public corruption like having foreign politicians fire their domestic corruption inspectors for looking into a crackhead ex lobbyist on the boars of their energy company.
GAC06
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Chem labs now? I thought the Nazi bio labs were bad enough!
Teslag
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oh no said:

but by sovereign independence, they didn't mean having a CIA-backed coup to install a pro-western anti-russian government, chem labs, constant nato flirtations, all rife with public corruption like having foreign politicians fire their domestic corruption inspectors for looking into a crackhead ex lobbyist on the boars of their energy company.

They also didn't vote to be a Russian vassal state under a puppet Russian government. In addition, to the point where Russia could, at any time, invade the country with hundreds of thousands of troops, launch cruise missiles into residential areas, slaughter civilians on purpose, destroy infrastructure, and "annex" entire states of Ukraine (that also voted for independence in 1991.

The point is, you tried to use your grandmother as some sort of proof that maybe Ukrainians also consider themselves Russian. It's just not backed up by data and history. Ukrainians were slaughtered under the Russian regime in the Holodymor. The country adopted Ukrainian as their official state language in 1991 as well. In 2001, almost 92% of the Kiev region already primarily spoke Ukrainian.

Ukrainians would literally rather die than be Russian. And they've been proving that for 3 years.
oh no
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and the people of Crimea later voted to rejoin with Russia instead of staying with an independent but chock full of corruption other state. things changed since the 90s and again in the 2000s.

This is like the 15th time some user on texags.com has informed me about all these things about my own grandmother.

I'm sure all online experts on virology/epidemiology who then became experts on soviet and russian history who then became experts on tariffs and economics and are now super experts on middle eastern history and relations feel righteous with their online lectures, but things are never black and white and are much more complicated in real life.

they need to end this war.
CrackerJackAg
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MouthBQ98 said:

Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat? What do they stand to lose by the US declining further involvement?

It's just a very very strange threat for a supposed mediator to make if you are trying to encourage an end and incentivize participation.

It does achieve making the USA look relatively impotent and inconsequential and that surely doesn't help us in our own negotiations.




Who ****ing cares if Putin wins

Why do I give two ****s about what's happening in Russia's backyard with some Third World pissant country

I don't give a **** if Ukraine exist or doesn't exist

I don't need the tax dollars I pay going into that crap

Oh, look a bunch of Russians/Slavs are going to be in a country with a bunch of Russians/Slavs in fact they're pretty much going right back to where they've historically been

The absolute lowest of ****ing concerns on my list
carl spacklers hat
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BeCaUsE OnCe UkRaInE FaLlS, aLl of EuRoPe Is nExT.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
Teslag
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Quote:

This is like the 15th time some user on texags.com has informed me about all these things about my own grandmother.


No one is questioning your grandmother's perspective. We are just telling you as an n=1 it's largely irrelevant to the overall picture and not backed up by history, elections, and her peers.

Quote:

and the people of Crimea later voted to rejoin with Russia instead of staying with an independent


Crimea is rather unique. They voted for independence in 1991 with only a 54% margin. It has historically been fairly Russian. Kiev oblast? Not a chance.
Who?mikejones!
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You're really going to use that example of Crimea voting to go with russia as a legitimate source?

If that's the case, then you must also agree that the Ukrainian vote for Zelensky was legitimate.
Teslag
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I was referring to the 1991 Independence election, not the sham elections in recent memory
samurai_science
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CrackerJackAg said:

MouthBQ98 said:

Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat? What do they stand to lose by the US declining further involvement?

It's just a very very strange threat for a supposed mediator to make if you are trying to encourage an end and incentivize participation.

It does achieve making the USA look relatively impotent and inconsequential and that surely doesn't help us in our own negotiations.






The absolute lowest of ****ing concerns on my list
Apparently its not just you, because the majority of voters dont care either.
Who?mikejones!
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Yes. Meant that to be a response to the post you were responding to, which i assume was the 2014 vote in Crimea

Oops.
CS78
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I haven't been to Ukraine but I have been to some other former Soviet areas. Capitalism and the loss of mother Russia was a very uncomfortable change for many of the people in your grandmother's generation. The rest of the population, not so much.
Waffledynamics
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CrackerJackAg said:

MouthBQ98 said:

Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat? What do they stand to lose by the US declining further involvement?

It's just a very very strange threat for a supposed mediator to make if you are trying to encourage an end and incentivize participation.

It does achieve making the USA look relatively impotent and inconsequential and that surely doesn't help us in our own negotiations.




Who ****ing cares if Putin wins

Why do I give two ****s about what's happening in Russia's backyard with some Third World pissant country

I don't give a **** if Ukraine exist or doesn't exist

I don't need the tax dollars I pay going into that crap

Oh, look a bunch of Russians/Slavs are going to be in a country with a bunch of Russians/Slavs in fact they're pretty much going right back to where they've historically been

The absolute lowest of ****ing concerns on my list
Because it's the morally right thing to care about, and Russia hates us and wants the people, land, and resources. They are also geopolitically aligned against us and with China.

Ukraine has given us a hugely lucrative mineral deal, including the exact kinds of rare earth minerals that China threatens to exploit against us.

What the heck does it take to make people like you care?
CrackerJackAg
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Waffledynamics said:

CrackerJackAg said:

MouthBQ98 said:

Walk away = let Putin win. What's the pressure on Russia with that threat? What do they stand to lose by the US declining further involvement?

It's just a very very strange threat for a supposed mediator to make if you are trying to encourage an end and incentivize participation.

It does achieve making the USA look relatively impotent and inconsequential and that surely doesn't help us in our own negotiations.




Who ****ing cares if Putin wins

Why do I give two ****s about what's happening in Russia's backyard with some Third World pissant country

I don't give a **** if Ukraine exist or doesn't exist

I don't need the tax dollars I pay going into that crap

Oh, look a bunch of Russians/Slavs are going to be in a country with a bunch of Russians/Slavs in fact they're pretty much going right back to where they've historically been

The absolute lowest of ****ing concerns on my list
Because it's the morally right thing to care about, and Russia hates us and wants the people, land, and resources. They are also geopolitically aligned against us and with China.

Ukraine has given us a hugely lucrative mineral deal, including the exact kinds of rare earth minerals that China threatens to exploit against us.

What the heck does it take to make people like you care?


You being wrong is not going to make me care.

So because Ukraine has given us a lot of money and material, that's what it all comes down to

You'll have to tell me more about why Russia is so terrible compared to other countries that were allies with

Saudi Arabia? Pakistan? Ukraine?

I'll tell you right now Russia is better than all of them

If we fought wars over moral grounds, we would be an endless war all the time

We don't fight wars for moral reasons. We come up with those to justify while we are actually there which is money.

If you are a boomer and you just grew up scared of Russia, then I guess that's not something that we're ever gonna get past

In my adult lifetime Russia hasn't done a damn thing to me.
nortex97
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Good shift in FA:
Quote:

The publication notes that NATO countries are not ready to accept Ukraine into the alliance due to fears of an escalation of the conflict with Russia.
  • "Despite past promises, consensus within the alliance on inviting Ukraine to join has not been reached and is unlikely to materialize in the foreseeable future. At the same time, NATO member states have made it clear that the alliance does not consider the defense of Ukraine a basis for starting a war with Russia," the article says.
  • At the same time, the alliance made it clear that the defense of Ukraine will not be a reason to start a war with Moscow.
  • The authors of the article emphasize that continuing talk about possible membership only weakens Kyiv's position, since it creates false expectations and does not bring real guarantees.
  • According to the magazine, an official refusal to join NATO would simplify possible ceasefire negotiations and would allow dialogue to be built on an honest and realistic basis.

What's interesting about this article is that they acknowledge that one of the primary reasons for Russia to start the SMO, the one many called "an excuse for unprovoked invasion of Ukraine", has once again turned out to be true.


Ukrainian 'minister' responsible for 'repatriating' Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine has…fled following corruption arrests. Kiev in a nutshell, right there.
Pumpkinhead
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https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/without-fanfare-trump-quietly-approves-30-million-more-in-arms-for-ukraine-amid-rising-global-tensions-us-ukraine-news-donald-trump-news/articleshow/121850489.cms

Trump administration approved $30 million arms shipment last week to Ukraine on top of a $242 million transfer approved in May.

This is what I suspected would happen as it became clear the two sides were no where close to a peace negotiation. Trump likely doesn't want anUkraine collapse to happen on his watch and take the blame for that, so Ukraine will continue to get some support 'quietly' to hold the rope.
Who?mikejones!
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And we're back
pagerman @ work
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oh no said:

and the people of Crimea later voted to rejoin with Russia instead of staying with an independent but chock full of corruption other state. things changed since the 90s and again in the 2000s.

This is like the 15th time some user on texags.com has informed me about all these things about my own grandmother.

I'm sure all online experts on virology/epidemiology who then became experts on soviet and russian history who then became experts on tariffs and economics and are now super experts on middle eastern history and relations feel righteous with their online lectures, but things are never black and white and are much more complicated in real life.

they need to end this war.


Why?

Just "ending it" solves nothing.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
J. Walter Weatherman
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oh no said:

and the people of Crimea later voted to rejoin with Russia instead of staying with an independent but chock full of corruption other state. things changed since the 90s and again in the 2000s.

This is like the 15th time some user on texags.com has informed me about all these things about my own grandmother.

I'm sure all online experts on virology/epidemiology who then became experts on soviet and russian history who then became experts on tariffs and economics and are now super experts on middle eastern history and relations feel righteous with their online lectures, but things are never black and white and are much more complicated in real life.

they need to end this war.



Who is "they"? Only one person is stopping this war from ending today.
nortex97
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CTH responds to Zelensky's impetuous demand for $40 billion in 'budgetary support.'
Quote:

Budgetary support means we pay for the operational cost of Ukraine government, including govt payrolls, pensions, healthcare services, welfare and social services for the people in Ukraine.

The crazy thing is, unless Trump stops it, our congress will give it to him. And even if Trump tries to stop it, congress will demand the payment as part of their appropriations process.

Maybe it's just me, but the in-your-face hubris of it is, well, just off-the-charts. As if we don't have important priorities here at home that could better use these taxpayer funds.


Iranian FM Aragchi is flying to Moscow (from Istanbul, he was too scared to fly back to Tehran from Europe) to meet with Putin today, hopefully to negotiate retirement housing for the ayatollah clan. I see nothing of consequence otherwise as likely, other than some tripe/boilerplate sort of statements. A lot of overlapping venn-diagram circles among the ruling classes (bank accounts) of Moscow, Kiev, Tehran, and Beijing about these conflicts, again.
BigJim49 AustinNowDallas
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pagerman @ work said:

oh no said:

and the people of Crimea later voted to rejoin with Russia instead of staying with an independent but chock full of corruption other state. things changed since the 90s and again in the 2000s.

This is like the 15th time some user on texags.com has informed me about all these things about my own grandmother.

I'm sure all online experts on virology/epidemiology who then became experts on soviet and russian history who then became experts on tariffs and economics and are now super experts on middle eastern history and relations feel righteous with their online lectures, but things are never black and white and are much more complicated in real life.

they need to end this war.


Why?

Just "ending it" solves nothing.
Yea, Trump !
samurai_science
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pagerman @ work said:

oh no said:

and the people of Crimea later voted to rejoin with Russia instead of staying with an independent but chock full of corruption other state. things changed since the 90s and again in the 2000s.

This is like the 15th time some user on texags.com has informed me about all these things about my own grandmother.

I'm sure all online experts on virology/epidemiology who then became experts on soviet and russian history who then became experts on tariffs and economics and are now super experts on middle eastern history and relations feel righteous with their online lectures, but things are never black and white and are much more complicated in real life.

they need to end this war.


Why?

Just "ending it" solves nothing.


We can stop trying to fund it
nortex97
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Well, Trump and Z spoke at the nato war council, sounds much more conciliatory vs. confrontational/demanding this time, so that's something at least.

Russia has conducted a lot of offensive operations the past few weeks, and frankly while continuing to advance at a pace faster in May than any month since November, a lot of strikes have been grotesque targets at civilian trains/homes/apartments as well. I think this has increased as a consequence of the recent command shuffles on their side, unfortunately (and a decimated Ukrainian air defense network).

Trump's comments to Putin that 'no, I don't need help with Iran, I need help with you' indicate as well his persistence in working toward a real truce with the two parties at some point.
nortex97
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This sure doesn't sound very threatening (or specific). I think from the presser this am.

With China 'signing' the trade agreement/deal, and Putin spending 4 days in Beijing, it seems pretty obvious this is more likely to be a trade agreement vs. a peace deal, imho. But, one never really knows, of course.

Zelensky getting killed by Zaluzhny in a poll of 2,000 Ukrainians, unsurprisingly. Of course, there's no indication the former is willing to ever hold elections again.
Quote:

The latest voter preferences were measured in a June survey by the Kiev-based polling agency Socis. The research, released on Wednesday, surveyed around 2,000 Ukrainians and indicated that Zelensky and Zaluzhny would advance to a runoff as the only candidates with double-digit support. However, nearly a quarter of respondents 24.7% said they were still undecided.

In a head-to-head, the former top general would receive more than 60% of the vote, according to the poll a figure that aligns with prior sociological research.

Zaluzhny has not declared an intent to run, stating that Ukraine's ongoing conflict with Russia must be resolved first. When Socis asked voters whom they would support if their preferred candidate were not on the ballot, only 6.5% named Zelensky as their second choice, compared to 18.1% for Zaluzhny and 11.0% for Kirill Budanov, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency.
EastSideAg2002
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Imagine that. A RT source that says Ukranians would want Zelensky to lose.
ABATTBQ11
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EastSideAg2002 said:

Imagine that. A RT source that says Ukranians would want Zelensky to lose.


Ukrainian polls spring widespread support for Zelensky? Obviously biased propaganda, comrade.

Polls from Russian state propaganda news media? Unquestionably trustworthy! So much better than silly, lying mainstream media you capitalist pigs gobble up!
Teslag
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The Russian government article also fails to mention that Ukraine is forbidden from holding elections per their constitution. It's not like the choice belongs to Zelenskyy to hold them.
nortex97
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EastSideAg2002 said:

Imagine that. A RT source that says Ukranians would want Zelensky to lose.

"Kiev-based polling agency Socis." Interesting the Russians are operating a polling firm in Kiev.
Rossticus
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nortex97 said:

Of course, there's no indication the former is willing to ever hold elections again.



If only he had the same affinity for free, fair, unbiased elections as Putin. Maybe that's something can aspire to.
Teslag
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The poll is likely accurate. However it's worth noting that Zalzhuny is just as anti-Russia as zelensky is and would continue the war against Russia. His main disagreement with zelensky is recognizing that Ukraine isn't getting their lost land back. He does however have no desire to see Ukraine as a puppet state and would continue a war against that goal of Russia. The poll shows that the Ukrainians have no desire to be Russians and they still support the war overwhelmingly.
 
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