A lot of people's on here will be disappointed when this man leaves as the GOAT

Some will never be able to grasp it

txags92 said:

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infinity ag said:

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Each one of these guys had some weird "custom" formula as part of their scorecard which was as obscure and unexplainable as possible to generate recommendations. When I asked them about it, they could not clearly articulate. Or maybe they did not want to. Most of them failed to beat the market. A few did, but not consistently.

I realized that they were all full of hot air and the industry was built on weak foundations. No one could predict the future consistently and reliably. These stock analysts did not know anything more than what you or I could with some common sense and application.

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Your mistake was thinking they were trying to beat the market. They weren't expecting to beat the market, they were just trying to convince others that they could so they could make their real money on the commissions.

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I was never their client so it did not matter to me personally. I have never hired anyone to do my finances. I was just working on the product that they used and I got to see the internals of what they used to make recommendations. All bs in my view.

But my real point is I did better than them by just buying the market. I made exactly the market every time in those years and beat most of those fancy analysts in each given year. This is the client side view. From the firm's view, they were racking up commissions as you say.

2023NCAggies said:

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A lot of people's on here will be disappointed when this man leaves as the GOAT

Some will never be able to grasp it

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I hope so.

Fix immigration. Fix jobs. Fix healthcare.

If he can do these 3 well, he da man.

1.8 trillion in commitments and counting. Wait till he visits Japan, SK, and other big Asian countries

Winning

I said this in an earlier thread, but tap the breaks on declaring victory or defeat until this plays out in 3-6 months when deals are negotiated and supply chains are caught up.

Current scorecard 3M, approximately when tariffs became policy
S&P 500: Flat
Dow: Flat
10 Year Yield: Flat

We'll know things are headed in the right direction when equity growth is up and bond yields are down.

Malibu said:

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I said this in an earlier thread, but tap the breaks on declaring victory or defeat until this plays out in 3-6 months when deals are negotiated and supply chains are caught up.

Current scorecard 3M, approximately when tariffs became policy
S&P 500: Flat
Dow: Flat
10 Year Yield: Flat

We'll know things are headed in the right direction when equity growth is up and bond yields are down.

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Can't say I disagree with this approach. The market is emotionally driven Trump takes advantage of that by announcing these big, beautiful deals (which are only verbal commitments).

Everyone puts Jamie Dimon on a pedestal but he was as emotional and misinformed about tarriffs as the shoe shiner on the street.

These execs are great communicators and people managers, but they are clueless on forecasting. It's a coin toss.

Bird Poo said:

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Malibu said:

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I said this in an earlier thread, but tap the breaks on declaring victory or defeat until this plays out in 3-6 months when deals are negotiated and supply chains are caught up.

Current scorecard 3M, approximately when tariffs became policy
S&P 500: Flat
Dow: Flat
10 Year Yield: Flat

We'll know things are headed in the right direction when equity growth is up and bond yields are down.

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Can't say I disagree with this approach. The market is emotionally driven Trump takes advantage of that by announcing these big, beautiful deals (which are only verbal commitments).

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Only verbal my ass. Says SIGNED guess reading is hard

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-signs-agreements-qatar-defense-boeing-purchases

BMX Bandit said:

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crazy how financial predictions change when key conditions change.

If the tariffs had not been rolled back, I doubt these analysts would change their opinion on recession.

it seems pretty clear to me that keeping those tariffs in play for a long time would have wrecked the economy. Trump's team knows this. They were a negotiating tool, which has been discussed here ad nauseum

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Bonds are melting down. Unless you dont hold $'s your currency is going to get inflated away to nothing to pay for all of this. But sure, this is great. Hope you own gold or bitcoin.

The good news is your the BMX Bandit so you should be alright with your bike.

Hiring a good professional financial advisor can absolutely be worth the cost particularly if you have notable wealth and tax and estate planning issues. It isn't about just hiring someone to 'pick stocks'.

I didn't have one for a long time but then things got more complicated and just on strategies my advisors work through to send less money to the IRS has been more than worth what I pay them.

But again, can depend on your wealth level whether makes sense.

2023NCAggies said:

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1.8 trillion in commitments and counting. Wait till he visits Japan, SK, and other big Asian countries

Winning

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Why not make it a gazillion???? You will buy anything he says anyway. Saudi is going to invest $600B into USA, their entire annual GDP is $1trillion. Let me know how this math works.

AggieHammer2000 said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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1.8 trillion in commitments and counting. Wait till he visits Japan, SK, and other big Asian countries

Winning

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Why not make it a gazillion???? You will buy anything he says anyway. Saudi is going to invest $600B into USA, their entire annual GDP is $1trillion. Let me know how this math works.

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You don't think they're going to do it all at once, do you?

Bond yields are the same as they were 3M ago. Thats not melting down, thats regression to the mean.

northeastag said:

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AggieHammer2000 said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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1.8 trillion in commitments and counting. Wait till he visits Japan, SK, and other big Asian countries

Winning

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Why not make it a gazillion???? You will buy anything he says anyway. Saudi is going to invest $600B into USA, their entire annual GDP is $1trillion. Let me know how this math works.

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You don't think they're going to do it all at once, do you?

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Of course he does...in liberal land they never think ahead nor examine any issue more than the surface layer. It's why they're 100% behind "healthcare is a right" but are dumbfounded when you explain to them that means government run healthcare, just like what the VA "provides" today.

rocky the dog said:

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Taking finically advise from Cramer, is like taking marriage advice from a stripper name candy

FobTies said:

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Everyone puts Jamie Dimon on a pedestal but he was as emotional and misinformed about tarriffs as the shoe shiner on the street.

These execs are great communicators and people managers, but they are clueless on forecasting. It's a coin toss.

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He is a CEO. What do you expect?
Nuff said.

Pumpkinhead said:

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Hiring a good professional financial advisor can absolutely be worth the cost particularly if you have notable wealth and tax and estate planning issues. It isn't about just hiring someone to 'pick stocks'.

I didn't have one for a long time but then things got more complicated and just on strategies my advisors work through to send less money to the IRS has been more than worth what I pay them.

But again, can depend on your wealth level whether makes sense.

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What would you say is the threshold beyond which one needs an advisor?

Good thing trump caved on tariffs or the cultists would have to move the goalposts.

AggieHammer2000 said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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1.8 trillion in commitments and counting. Wait till he visits Japan, SK, and other big Asian countries

Winning

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Why not make it a gazillion???? You will buy anything he says anyway. Saudi is going to invest $600B into USA, their entire annual GDP is $1trillion. Let me know how this math works.

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How about you spread the commitment out. Der der derp

Sims said:

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Let's not forget the media's unwillingness to acknowledge economic malaise and high inflation under Biden. Then they're suddenly apoplectic about Trump's pending doom economy that refuses to manifest in the data forcing them to come about.

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This. They are like the Democrats hoping, lying, spreading misinformation in wanting Trump to fail. And every time they report that the sky is falling and it does not, they "forget" about the report and move on to a different subject.

Trump is kicking ass and they are all terrified.

Here we go. Today
What a clown show.

Jamie Cramer strikes again.


JPMorgan's Dimon: Recession still possible

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgans-dimon-on-possibility-of-recession-i-wouldnt-take-it-off-the-table-144010197.html

Quote:

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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon is not ruling out the possibility of a US recession, saying Thursday that "I wouldn't take it off the table at this point."
The boss of the biggest US bank, in an interview with Bloomberg, cited the country's large deficit along with his expectation for rising long-term interest rates and inflation.

"If there's a recession, I don't know how big it will be or how long it will last. Hopefully we'll avoid it. But I wouldn't take it off the table at this point," he added, noting that he relies on his economists for that kind of forecast.
Two days ago, JPMorgan economists lowered their expectations of a US recession after calling for one shortly following the Trump administration's sweeping rollout of tariffs at the beginning of last month.

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Pretty solid caveat, 'it's their fault and I'm only the messenger so don't shoot'.

Why is the housing market so slow? At least in Texas the lack of buyers is real

samurai_science said:

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Why is the housing market so slow? At least in Texas the lack of buyers is real

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I heard it on a podcast yesterday that the traditionally good housing markets are bad now and the traditionally bad markets are currently good. So Chicago is good right now. San Fran etc are bad. It's all part of the cycle.

I was talking to a friend yesterday during a walk and he told me he invested $25k in an apartment in Houston with some friends. The idea was to upgrade and exit in 5 years "doubling" one's money. But Trump kicking out Mexicans, this and that caused problems and the place went under foreclosure so he lost his money.

rocky the dog said:

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Dude made one correct market call 35 years ago. Been banking on that ever since.

newbie11 said:

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rocky the dog said:

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Dude made one correct market call 35 years ago. Been banking on that ever since.

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Many years ago, I thought I'd test Cramer for myself. He made a stock pick for a stock ticker NG. I noted it down, did not buy. He said it was a can't miss and a generational stock and heaped all kinds of encomiums on the stock.

I tracked it, the stock tanked and it has not done anything since.

Found Cramer's comment. It was from 2011.

https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/mad-money-lightning-round-novagold-glitters-10960578?jwsource=cl

Quote:

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'Mad Money Lightning Round': NovaGold Glitters
Cramer says NovaGold Resources is a great long-term gold play.

Jan 4, 2011 7:26 PM EST

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Quote:

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NovaGold Resources (NG)
"This is a stock that's a long-term play on gold. If you don't own any you should start buying. This is the best way to play gold and I'm not kidding."

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See how it's performed.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NG/

It made a grand total of 3.54% in 14 years.