I'm obviously glad that the CPI is low. My one question is whether or not the CPI is the best tool to measure the impact of the tariffs? Would PPI be better?

So we don't think private data is reliable because it's biased. We don't think government data is reliable because it's ****ty. And then we don't trust anecdotal evidence because it's anecdotal.

So we just make up our minds based on whatever best fits our narrative.

As point of order, tariffs are paid by the importer, and realized here. They aren't paid abroad and eaten by the companies abroad, save if the importer can negotiate lower prices or substitute with non-tariffed domestic or free trade nation goods. Tariffs are either passed on as price increases to US consumers, or eaten by the US companies in lower margin. The result is either higher prices, or lower earnings. There is no free lunch.

As for what will happen in the long run, the opportunity cost of that tax will result in deadweight losses to consumers and businesses that could have used it more productively. In the short run, tariffs have been delayed or avoided to have the worst consequences felt immediately, but we're already seeing Big Auto post lower earnings as a result of this. In the intermediate to long run, this will be felt by everyone. Whether that increases inflation is going to be more of a consequence of money supply, which with higher interest rates (currently), shouldn't be growing higher. If you have tariffs + lower interest rates, higher prices + more dollars will mean more inflation.

So anecdotal evidence.

Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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So anecdotal evidence.

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Call it whatever you want.

When anyone tells me "Things only went up X%" and I'm buying things that are more than X% more expensive, it is what it is....anecdotal, reality, pink fluffy bunnies.

Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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So anecdotal evidence.

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To a degree, yes. While anecdotal evidence lacks precision, when you know that life is more expensive than it was 5 years ago even accounting for higher wages, and some egghead economist tells you that actually, the median worker...blah blah, you're allowed to trust your internal BS detector that the data isn't fully capturing your reality.

BigRobSA said:

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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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So we don't think private data is reliable because it's biased. We don't think government data is reliable because it's ****ty. And then we don't trust anecdotal evidence because it's anecdotal.

So we just make up our minds based on whatever best fits our narrative.

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My only "narrative" is reality.

Weird....I know.

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Your correct. With all the personal changes and the politics introduced, it's hard to believe or trust the numbers that the government issues.

Malibu said:

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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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So anecdotal evidence.

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To a degree, yes. While anecdotal evidence lacks precision, when you know that life is more expensive than it was 5 years ago even accounting for higher wages, and some egghead economist tells you that actually, the median worker...blah blah, you're allowed to trust your internal BS detector that the data isn't fully capturing your reality.

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Correct but you measure against the indicator. The data doesn't always tell the whole story but it does tell some of the story.

Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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Malibu said:

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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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So anecdotal evidence.

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To a degree, yes. While anecdotal evidence lacks precision, when you know that life is more expensive than it was 5 years ago even accounting for higher wages, and some egghead economist tells you that actually, the median worker...blah blah, you're allowed to trust your internal BS detector that the data isn't fully capturing your reality.

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Correct but you measure against the indicator. The data doesn't always tell the whole story but it does tell some of the story.

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All it tells ME is "Well, there's another job that shouldn't exist.".

The tariffs in Trumps first term manifested as lower economic activity.

All signs are pointing toward that same occurence this time.

I think that's the short term. If we do in fact intend to go forward then I think inflation will likely take place over a longer time horizon where domestic production becomes the main source of goods... and due to higher wages, regulatory burden and barriers of entry, inflation will be sticky.

Now if you get domestic production and still execute on lowering regulatory and compliance burdens, you might mitigate some of the inflationary pressure.

Hard to really see the full impact yet since the majority of them just went into effect based on Trump's chaotic policy-by-tweet strategy, but his latest big government corporate tax increase has already started to raise prices and it will only get worse.

Trump has thus far imposed, unilaterally, a $200 billion annual tax on American small businesses https://t.co/gX4LuEJ3Fb
Here's the math: pic.twitter.com/9cMvxpy5T6

— Scott Lincicome (@scottlincicome) August 9, 2025

Goldman's latest (still very early) analysis of tariff effects thru June 2025:
-Foreign exporters absorbed 14% of US tariffs
-US companies ate 64%
-US consumers ate 22%
-Protected US companies also raised prices
-Consumers will see bigger price increases (70%) thru the Fall pic.twitter.com/0S0fVnEvQp

— Scott Lincicome (@scottlincicome) August 10, 2025

"The latest tariff orders confirmed for Mr. Barr that he would have to raise prices and lay off employees in the months ahead... Mr. Barr’s thinking is emblematic of the shift in strategy occurring at companies across the country." https://t.co/89uxTUQeuH pic.twitter.com/gEGWW0x0J3

— Scott Lincicome (@scottlincicome) August 9, 2025

While yes, the tarrifs are paid by the importer....I think most are glossing over the fact that the importer (buyer) is also putting pressure on the seller to lower prices to compensate. When you have the largest consumption base, or largest buying base...you can do that. Just ask Walmart.

I'd argue the foreign sellers are taking a much bigger hit than you are accounting for.

You're correct. There are many public statements from companies that they will incur hits of $1B or more due to tariffs. Many of them are absorbing them for now as they try to understand the new playing field and how to optimize their business. They can offset some of it through various initiatives, but at some point they will pass on the rest to consumers. I've seen estimates from respected analysts who think roughly 2/3 of the tariffs will get passed on to consumers, but it will likely be 2026 before we see that.

And again, there's a question of the longevity of the impact. Is it a one-time increase, or does it feed higher sustained inflation? Anybody who says they know is simply speculating.

It's foolish at this point for anybody to say "mission accomplished... no tariff inflation" or to say that we're absolutely going to have Biden-era inflation from the tariffs. I personally think we'll see an impact but it will be much less than Biden-inflation, although it will constrain economic activity for a prolonged period, keep interest rates near current levels, and most consumers won't be too happy about the overall economy. That's just my take, and I wouldn't bet a cup of coffee on it. Just too hard to accurately predict the future.

PoochieAg said:

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While yes, the tarrifs are paid by the importer....I think most are glossing over the fact that the importer (buyer) is also putting pressure on the seller to lower prices to compensate. When you have the largest consumption base, or largest buying base...you can do that. Just ask Walmart.

I'd argue the foreign sellers are taking a much bigger hit than you are accounting for.

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We need them to supply these goods too or we are screwed. These foreign companies/countries are not giving us price breaks...they are looking to stick it to us just like Trump is trying to do.

The only way the tariff game is a winner is we get A LOT of mfg back here in the states. There are some notable announcements to that effect, but still a TON more needed to make up for the giant tax being levied.

As long as it's the companies getting screwed on the tariffs, and they're not passing on what they're getting hit by, my wallet won't complain.

And if it stays this way from now on, even better.

BigRobSA said:

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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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Malibu said:

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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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So anecdotal evidence.

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To a degree, yes. While anecdotal evidence lacks precision, when you know that life is more expensive than it was 5 years ago even accounting for higher wages, and some egghead economist tells you that actually, the median worker...blah blah, you're allowed to trust your internal BS detector that the data isn't fully capturing your reality.

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Correct but you measure against the indicator. The data doesn't always tell the whole story but it does tell some of the story.

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All it tells ME is "Well, there's another job that shouldn't exist.".

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That's just a foolish take.

Quote:

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Protected US companies also raised prices

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This is the one I struggle with. I get it from the business perspective and the fiduciary responsible if it's a publicly traded company, but at some point they are just pricing themselves out and more than anything damaging the American consumer.

No Spin Ag said:

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As long as it's the companies getting screwed on the tariffs, and they're not passing on what they're getting hit by, my wallet won't complain.

And if it stays this way from now on, even better.

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pretty wild how this issue has flipped Republican vs Democrat. The dems should be thrilled companies and their evil billionaire owners are paying huge taxes (tariffs)!

We are still seeing affects of drunken spending during covid and "transitive inflation".

Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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BigRobSA said:

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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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Malibu said:

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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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So anecdotal evidence.

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To a degree, yes. While anecdotal evidence lacks precision, when you know that life is more expensive than it was 5 years ago even accounting for higher wages, and some egghead economist tells you that actually, the median worker...blah blah, you're allowed to trust your internal BS detector that the data isn't fully capturing your reality.

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Correct but you measure against the indicator. The data doesn't always tell the whole story but it does tell some of the story.

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All it tells ME is "Well, there's another job that shouldn't exist.".

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That's just a foolish take.

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Science Denier said:

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. It appears that these tariffs are being eaten by most of the countries that are being tariffed. Much like what happened in Trump's first term.

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How are they eating the tariffs?

Aggie95 said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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As long as it's the companies getting screwed on the tariffs, and they're not passing on what they're getting hit by, my wallet won't complain.

And if it stays this way from now on, even better.

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pretty wild how this issue has flipped Republican vs Democrat. The dems should be thrilled companies and their evil billionaire owners are paying huge taxes (tariffs)!

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Agreed, but that's tribalism politics for you. What is bad is good and good is bad depending on who is doing it and so is on what side.

Me, I couldn't care less who is in the WH; I just like that the consumer isn't getting screwed over because of the decision being made. Now to see how long it lasts.

I work for a mid-sized international company. The manufacturing for this company is based in Germany (also where HQ is) and the US portion of the company acts as a subsidiary. So the US company has to purchase from the German HQ all of the products we sell in the US. The US side of the company just went through some layoffs and the EMT says that it is due to tariffs (more likely due to mis-management but what company doesn't have mis-management). We are in a very competitive market so we can't necessarily pass off all the costs to the customer. So the company is eating some of the tariffs by doing more with less.

No Spin Ag said:

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Aggie95 said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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As long as it's the companies getting screwed on the tariffs, and they're not passing on what they're getting hit by, my wallet won't complain.

And if it stays this way from now on, even better.

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pretty wild how this issue has flipped Republican vs Democrat. The dems should be thrilled companies and their evil billionaire owners are paying huge taxes (tariffs)!

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Agreed, but that's tribalism politics for you. What is bad is good and good is bad depending on who is doing it and so is on what side.

Me, I couldn't care less who is in the WH; I just like that the consumer isn't getting screwed over because of the decision being made. Now to see how long it lasts.

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Unfortunately it won't last long. The money has to come from somewhere, so either they are going to raise prices or cut costs (I.e jobs, small businesses closing) internally.

I would also assume a large percentage of companies are waiting to see if these get struck down since the legality of a president doing this is still in question.

This is all just a circular tax on the American people one way or another.

Yeah we need a bunch of fudged data to tell us that 5 years ago it cost middle America $60,000/yr to live, and now at the exact same living standards that number is $120,000/yr. To hell with your data and to hell with your tariffs (taxes).

BigRobSA said:

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Aggie95 said:

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PoochieAg said:

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While yes, the tarrifs are paid by the importer....I think most are glossing over the fact that the importer (buyer) is also putting pressure on the seller to lower prices to compensate. When you have the largest consumption base, or largest buying base...you can do that. Just ask Walmart.

I'd argue the foreign sellers are taking a much bigger hit than you are accounting for.

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We need them to supply these goods too or we are screwed. These foreign companies/countries are not giving us price breaks...they are looking to stick it to us just like Trump is trying to do.

The only way the tariff game is a winner is we get A LOT of mfg back here in the states. There are some notable announcements to that effect, but still a TON more needed to make up for the giant tax being levied.

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"Announcements" mean dick.

We still are over regulated and taxed .

Cut taxes (not just keep status quo), deregulate massively. This is the only way we'll get mfg back in any real amount. Also, to help the economy, GUT spending.

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could not agree more!! How or why this hasn't started yet is beyond me. I know congress is needed for a lot of it, but surely there are some things that can be done without them

Libs and fake Cons:

Quote:

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Just wait... it is coming... it will be catastrophic.... Studies have shown....the age of America is over.... we are all going to die.....

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Waffledynamics said:

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Science Denier said:

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. It appears that these tariffs are being eaten by most of the countries that are being tariffed. Much like what happened in Trump's first term.

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How are they eating the tariffs?

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I think he meant the foreign exporters are lowering their prices which equates to "eating the tariff." Obviously the importer pays the tariff, which is why we're seeing hundreds of billions of dollars to the US Treasury.

Anyone that thinks this is a black and white issue is a moron. On some goods there are countries that DESPERATELY need the US market. Those exporters will very likely lower their prices to continue selling to this market.

There are other goods that we will start producing here in the U.S. which will really hurt those foreign countries because our non-tariffed production costs are lower than what they're willing to sell.

Finally there are goods that we can't produce locally but desperately need and the foreign exporter won't budge on their selling price.

This last category is the one that will hit Americans in their pocketbook if the importer isn't willing to eat that cost. It sounds like right now for this last category most importers are eating it, likely to avoid losing any market share. That won't last forever so we'll see how this shakes out over the next 18 months.

BigRobSA said:

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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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I'm obviously glad that the CPI is low. My one question is whether or not the CPI is the best tool to measure the impact of the tariffs? Would PPI be better?

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Or.....and this may be a controversial idea.....you go out and buy things and see how much more expensive they are.

Depending on ****ty govt data is a fool's errand.


"Look, see, the data that the people I don't trust for anything else says...."


LOL dumb

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I do go out and buy stuff. Things are not that much more than they were last year in August.

Not sure what, other than your TDS you are talking about.