Trump's tariffs - still no major inflation

6,137 Views | 92 Replies | Last: 7 days ago by Science Denier
BusterAg
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AG
J. Walter Weatherman said:

If you think our coddled Gen Z graduates are going to take these imaginary promised manufacturing type jobs occupied by those "teeming millions" in other countries I'm not sure what to tell you. By economic scale and standard of living almost none of those countries are close to ours so it's not exactly comparing apples to apples either.

More government is always a bad idea (especially when it's a corporate tax increase like these are), which will be proven out here - assuming the courts don't strike it down in a few weeks. The answer is to make it easier to build a business here, not harder to build everywhere else.

That's the problem.

Other countries are doing just that, making it harder for American businesses here by deflating their own currencies and artificially undercutting the profits of domestic producers.

Tariffs are bad. They should all be eliminated. Reciprocal tariffs designed to reduce overall tariffs are not bad on their face.

Every country in the world protects their middle class jobs with tariffs other than the US. In aggregate, that is bad for the US, because it significantly reduces the switching opportunities and increases switching costs for US.

Will be interesting to see who wins the OleAg award on this topic in 2026. New Monetary Theory wasn't supposed to cause major inflation, according to the same economists that are saying that Trump's tariffs will cause inflation.

At the end of the day, inflation is and always will be a monetary phenomonon, and tariffs do not impact the money supply, so, therefore, cannot cause inflation.

I am much more upset about the Big Beautiful Bill than I am the tariffs.
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
BigRobSA
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Ag in Tiger Country said:

I like how some of y'all are comparing prices & costs "5 years ago" to today's prices & costs, acting like the surge suddenly happened in Jan 2025 rather than the prior 4 years of utter incompetence by the Biden Administration that was SOLELY responsible for skyrocketing costs, prices, inflation, interest rates, & unemployment numbers that were recalculated after BS headlines from the MSM tried to gaslight the citizenry into thinking the economy was booming under Biden!!! I guess the MSM was successful in convincing a few dumbasses, including some on this forum, even though the market is at an all time record high! But ignore that; doom & gloom is on the horizon, & it's time to panic- this time they're certain of it!!!

Trump started it with his idiotic response to COVID.

Biden turned it to eleventy.
BigRobSA
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BusterAg said:

I am much more upset about the Big Beautiful Bill than I am the tariffs.

I have enough "upset" for both idiotic things. Tariffs and BuildBackBetter2.
BusterAg
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AG
J. Walter Weatherman said:

Apollo79 said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

Just because other countries have idiotic liberal policies doesn't mean we should too.

huh? So we just continue to raked over the coals in the trade wars cause mUH libeRAL policies?


Why would an American company selling products to Americans care if Switzerland has tariffs on American products? Is the only alternative is to rake ourselves over the coals? Because that's what tariffs will do by raising costs for American consumers and companies.

The only excuse that the EU has for the 50% tariff on Harley Davidsons is to protect BMW.

If the EU did not have a 50% tariff on Harley Davidsons, the US would manufacture more Harley Davidsons, because the demand for Harley's in the EU is absolutely there.

The EU charging a 50% tariff on Harleys is something that US policy makers should care about.

We should tariff BMW sedans at 50% in response.
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
BusterAg
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BigRobSA said:

BusterAg said:

I am much more upset about the Big Beautiful Bill than I am the tariffs.

I have enough "upset" for both idiotic things. Tariffs and BuildBackBetter2

Some people get upset when Trump buys cheeseburgers for football players.

They have a name for that, BTW.
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
ts5641
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I was told in January the world would end because of tariffs.
Science Denier
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AG
ts5641 said:

I was told in January the world would end because of tariffs.

Well, there is still time.
LOL OLD
infinity ag
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BusterAg said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

If you think our coddled Gen Z graduates are going to take these imaginary promised manufacturing type jobs occupied by those "teeming millions" in other countries I'm not sure what to tell you. By economic scale and standard of living almost none of those countries are close to ours so it's not exactly comparing apples to apples either.

More government is always a bad idea (especially when it's a corporate tax increase like these are), which will be proven out here - assuming the courts don't strike it down in a few weeks. The answer is to make it easier to build a business here, not harder to build everywhere else.

That's the problem.

Other countries are doing just that, making it harder for American businesses here by deflating their own currencies and artificially undercutting the profits of domestic producers.

Tariffs are bad. They should all be eliminated. Reciprocal tariffs designed to reduce overall tariffs are not bad on their face.

Every country in the world protects their middle class jobs with tariffs other than the US. In aggregate, that is bad for the US, because it significantly reduces the switching opportunities and increases switching costs for US.

Will be interesting to see who wins the OleAg award on this topic in 2026. New Monetary Theory wasn't supposed to cause major inflation, according to the same economists that are saying that Trump's tariffs will cause inflation.

At the end of the day, inflation is and always will be a monetary phenomonon, and tariffs do not impact the money supply, so, therefore, cannot cause inflation.

I am much more upset about the Big Beautiful Bill than I am the tariffs.


Well put.

Many folks just know how to repeat radio talk show host talking points without thinking them through or realizing that the radio guy is on some moneybags payroll. They are programmed to repeat billionaire agenda points like "reduce corporate taxes" and "cut regulations" which is nothing but disaster for the middle class.

No different from the liberals who scream "de-fund the police!". Let them spend a week without the police and see how they get through it.

The other thing they do is to gaslight other Americans and try to shame them that they are lazy and "average". Not everyone is a world beating genius, no one here on TA is to my knowledge. "Average" is not a bad thing, if average people cannot get jobs in their own country, it is seriously broken. This country is now setup so that only the super rich and rich make a lot of money and the middle/poor struggle. If you are an investor, then you are more likely to be at least "rich". What about blue collared workers and retired people? No one cares for them.

So as you say, let us reduce or remove tariffs only if others do. If not we neutralize their tariffs on us. Trump is trying to get everyone to play fair and stop us from getting ripped off.

I am worried about our out of control debt. 38T is bad.
infinity ag
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ts5641 said:

I was told in January the world would end because of tariffs.


The problem is you believe what you are told.

And everyone has an agenda. Pays to think about an issue oneself and decide based on logic and research. Stay away from talking heads on both sides - lib or con. They are all frauds and sold out.
Sims
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AG
BusterAg said:

Every country in the world mollifies their middle class jobs with tariffs other than the US.

Because fat & happy people don't revolt or call for systematic change.
J. Walter Weatherman
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I don't disagree with a lot of this. It's great in theory and I hope Trump is right and this gets other countries to lower/drop theirs, as free trade should be the end goal.

But the reality is that the US choosing to fight the battle this way (instead of making it easier to build and grow things here) will most likely result in two outcomes once the new costs are accounted for (reminder that the large majority of these just went into effect and could be dropped at any point by the courts)

- increase in prices for Americans
- decrease in profit margins for American businesses

All for a marginal increase in revenue that won't even make a fraction of a dent in the debt thanks to our continued out of control spending, including Trump's latest big government spending bill. And that will be paid for, one way or another, by Americans.

Once these are fully in effect and have to be accounted for, it will likely result in thousands of small businesses closing or downsizing since they won't be able to eat the costs or pass them along to customers. At which point, ironically enough for our favorite anti-corporation poster, it will be the big companies who can afford to cut costs internally that will be there to scoop up what's left.
MemphisAg1
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AG
Totally agree. I think this tariff war will prove to be a net negative over time. But we'll see… I could be wrong.

Still don't regret my vote for Trump. Agree with him on many more things than areas of disagreement. And I can't stand to think where we'd be if Kamala won.
BigRobSA
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

I don't disagree with a lot of this. It's great in theory and I hope Trump is right and this gets other countries to lower/drop theirs, as free trade should be the end goal.

But the reality is that the US choosing to fight the battle this way (instead of making it easier to build and grow things here) will most likely result in two outcomes once the new costs are accounted for (reminder that the large majority of these just went into effect and could be dropped at any point by the courts)

- increase in prices for Americans
- decrease in profit margins for American businesses

All for a marginal increase in revenue that won't even make a fraction of a dent in the debt thanks to our continued out of control spending, including Trump's latest big government spending bill. And that will be paid for, one way or another, by Americans.

Once these are fully in effect and have to be accounted for, it will likely result in thousands of small businesses closing or downsizing since they won't be able to eat the costs or pass them along to customers. At which point, ironically enough for our favorite anti-corporation poster, it will be the big companies who can afford to cut costs internally that will be there to scoop up what's left.

This, unfortunately.

All while not actually fixing the reasons why mfg left in the first place.

But, liberalism (like tariffs) never works. Not even this time.
Apollo79
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ts5641 said:

I was told in January the world would end because of tariffs.

yep and a lot of so called smart people on here echoed the same sentiment.

lol


Quote:

- increase in prices for Americans

you keep saying this but thats not true
TxAG#2011
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Still no tangible benefit has been explained to American citizens. The government makes more money to do what exactly? Ship money overseas and build weapons? Frick off please.

J. Walter Weatherman
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Apollo79 said:

ts5641 said:

I was told in January the world would end because of tariffs.

yep and a lot of so called smart people on here echoed the same sentiment.

lol


Quote:

- increase in prices for Americans

you keep saying this but thats not true


Since Trump kept changing his mind most of them just went into effect 14 days ago. What do you think businesses will do when their costs go up?
Science Denier
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AG
J. Walter Weatherman said:

Apollo79 said:

ts5641 said:

I was told in January the world would end because of tariffs.

yep and a lot of so called smart people on here echoed the same sentiment.

lol


Quote:

- increase in prices for Americans

you keep saying this but thats not true


Since Trump kept changing his mind most of them just went into effect 14 days ago. What do you think businesses will do when their costs go up?

Changing his mind? We've raised $150 billion in revenue due to tariffs. I guarantee that has been raised alot longer than just 14 days.

But, I do get the narrative to deflect from the fact that the$150 billion in tariffs collected has not increased inflation at any substantial rate.
LOL OLD
J. Walter Weatherman
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Science Denier said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

Apollo79 said:

ts5641 said:

I was told in January the world would end because of tariffs.

yep and a lot of so called smart people on here echoed the same sentiment.

lol


Quote:

- increase in prices for Americans

you keep saying this but thats not true


Since Trump kept changing his mind most of them just went into effect 14 days ago. What do you think businesses will do when their costs go up?

Changing his mind? We've raised $150 billion in revenue due to tariffs. I guarantee that has been raised alot longer than just 14 days.

But, I do get the narrative to deflect from the fact that the$150 billion in tariffs collected has not increased inflation at any substantial rate.


You're spiking the football in the first quarter.



Same question for you - what do you think companies will do with this new corporate tax increase?

Science Denier
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AG
J. Walter Weatherman said:

Science Denier said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

Apollo79 said:

ts5641 said:

I was told in January the world would end because of tariffs.

yep and a lot of so called smart people on here echoed the same sentiment.

lol


Quote:

- increase in prices for Americans

you keep saying this but thats not true


Since Trump kept changing his mind most of them just went into effect 14 days ago. What do you think businesses will do when their costs go up?

Changing his mind? We've raised $150 billion in revenue due to tariffs. I guarantee that has been raised alot longer than just 14 days.

But, I do get the narrative to deflect from the fact that the$150 billion in tariffs collected has not increased inflation at any substantial rate.


You're spiking the football in the first quarter.



Same question for you - what do you think companies will do with this new corporate tax increase?




Expand their business with competitors raising their prices. Now, with the trillions of dollars that are going to be invested, labor may increase. So that very well could cause some inflation.

To be clear, that was a tad bit in the sarcastic side. Honestly, I have no idea. But if we can pay down our deficit by $250 billion per year or more, I'd take a 3% inflation in a heartbeat.
LOL OLD
BusterAg
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

I don't disagree with a lot of this. It's great in theory and I hope Trump is right and this gets other countries to lower/drop theirs, as free trade should be the end goal.

But the reality is that the US choosing to fight the battle this way (instead of making it easier to build and grow things here) will most likely result in two outcomes once the new costs are accounted for (reminder that the large majority of these just went into effect and could be dropped at any point by the courts)

- increase in prices for Americans
- decrease in profit margins for American businesses

All for a marginal increase in revenue that won't even make a fraction of a dent in the debt thanks to our continued out of control spending, including Trump's latest big government spending bill. And that will be paid for, one way or another, by Americans.

Once these are fully in effect and have to be accounted for, it will likely result in thousands of small businesses closing or downsizing since they won't be able to eat the costs or pass them along to customers. At which point, ironically enough for our favorite anti-corporation poster, it will be the big companies who can afford to cut costs internally that will be there to scoop up what's left.

I appreciate the thoughtful post. Some critiques:

1) The US government ran a cash surplus in Q2 for the first time in decades, thanks primarily to tariff revenue. The revenue right now is significant.

2) Trump's spending pisses me off. I mean, that is status quo in DC, everyone else has done and continues to do it, but Trump promised to reduce spending, and he hasn't. QUIT SPENDING OUR MONEY! We are in agreement here.

3) You present "making business easier here" and tariffs in pursuit of free trade as a false dichotomy. Both are needed. You don't have to choose one or the other.

4) The thing that matters right now is improving the well-being of the middle and working class, who have been dumped on for decades. The question isn't whether we will see higher prices or lower corporate profits, the question is, will the middle and working classes be better off, considering employment opportunities and inflation together, with or without the taxes.

5) You assume that there will be fewer small businesses due to the tariffs. Huge assumption. Tariffs will likely open new opportunities for small businesses in the US.
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
BusterAg
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AG
BigRobSA said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

I don't disagree with a lot of this. It's great in theory and I hope Trump is right and this gets other countries to lower/drop theirs, as free trade should be the end goal.

But the reality is that the US choosing to fight the battle this way (instead of making it easier to build and grow things here) will most likely result in two outcomes once the new costs are accounted for (reminder that the large majority of these just went into effect and could be dropped at any point by the courts)

- increase in prices for Americans
- decrease in profit margins for American businesses

All for a marginal increase in revenue that won't even make a fraction of a dent in the debt thanks to our continued out of control spending, including Trump's latest big government spending bill. And that will be paid for, one way or another, by Americans.

Once these are fully in effect and have to be accounted for, it will likely result in thousands of small businesses closing or downsizing since they won't be able to eat the costs or pass them along to customers. At which point, ironically enough for our favorite anti-corporation poster, it will be the big companies who can afford to cut costs internally that will be there to scoop up what's left.

This, unfortunately.

All while not actually fixing the reasons why mfg left in the first place.

But, liberalism (like tariffs) never works. Not even this time.

Contrary to this, Trump has actually done a lot to start fixing the problems in the market that you are addressing, primarily through SCOTUS.

Looper Bright was the largest roll-back of the power of federal regulators in the history of the nation, in my opinion. That case does not get decided that way without the help of Trump, and, to give a worm his due, McConnell. That and the 10 for 1 federal regulation cut/add rule are all steps in the right direction.

Finally, reciprocal tariffs in the pursuit of free trade is not liberalism. A system of trade where one side tariffs the crap out of the other, and the other side just bends over to take it without repercussions, is equally as dumb as liberalism.
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
B-1 83
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AG
HTownAg98 said:

Science Denier said:

It appears that these tariffs are being eaten by most of the countries that are being tariffed. Much like what happened in Trump's first term.

Tariffs aren't being eaten by the countries, because the tariff isn't imposed until the good hits our shores. If it's not being passed through 100% to the consumer, it's being accounted for somewhere in the process stateside.

The US manufacturer and consumer is paying the tax, err, tariff.

The seller can also lower their price…..
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Science Denier
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AG
So,

Here we are. Almost a year after Trump took over.

Not only are we STILL not having the massive inflation predicted by the "experts", trade deficit has been cut by massive amounts.

These "experts" (LMAO) that have zero real world experience "experts" (LMAO) use "studies" and "theory" to base their opinions. So, they are....

wait for it...

SHOCKED!!!
 
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