Trump's tariffs - still no major inflation

6,094 Views | 92 Replies | Last: 3 days ago by Science Denier
2026NCAggies
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Hmm what tariffs will raise prices exactly? China? the one we keep kicking down the road and there really isnt a big tariff increase?

Most of trading partners are back down to 15%

So if you are waiting for inflation to skyrocket, you are going to be upset (Dems)

This whole tariff war is almost over, the China trade deal will take another year or so and the tariffs will be kicked down the road again and again.

India will come to the table soon enough and they are screwing us in other ways, so we need tariffs for now.

Science Denier
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AG
BigRobSA said:

Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

So we don't think private data is reliable because it's biased. We don't think government data is reliable because it's ****ty. And then we don't trust anecdotal evidence because it's anecdotal.

So we just make up our minds based on whatever best fits our narrative.

My only "narrative" is reality.

Weird....I know.

Thoughts that only reside "in your mind" are not reality.
LOL OLD
Science Denier
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Quote:

Hmm what tariffs will raise prices exactly

Well, none really so far. But, we've raised $150 billion in tariffs already, so it's not like we've not been collecting pretty large sums already.
LOL OLD
4
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HTownAg98 said:

Science Denier said:

It appears that these tariffs are being eaten by most of the countries that are being tariffed. Much like what happened in Trump's first term.

Tariffs aren't being eaten by the countries, because the tariff isn't imposed until the good hits our shores. If it's not being passed through 100% to the consumer, it's being accounted for somewhere in the process stateside.

The US manufacturer and consumer is paying the tax, err, tariff.

If that's the case, then as all taxes do, these will remove money from the consumer's pocketbook thereby decreasing purchasing and slowing economic activity.

So the tariffs will decrease inflation. As all taxes do.

Either that, or they aren't a tax and will increase inflation.

But they can't do both.
TheCurl84
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So many words.


Here is one thing that absolutely WON'T happen. If the economy is NOT wrecked by the end of this year, all the economists, experts and talking heads who predicted it, will line up and apologize to the rest of us.
Science Denier
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Prosperdick said:

Waffledynamics said:

Science Denier said:

. It appears that these tariffs are being eaten by most of the countries that are being tariffed. Much like what happened in Trump's first term.



How are they eating the tariffs?

I think he meant the foreign exporters are lowering their prices which equates to "eating the tariff." Obviously the importer pays the tariff, which is why we're seeing hundreds of billions of dollars to the US Treasury.

Anyone that thinks this is a black and white issue is a moron. On some goods there are countries that DESPERATELY need the US market. Those exporters will very likely lower their prices to continue selling to this market.

There are other goods that we will start producing here in the U.S. which will really hurt those foreign countries because our non-tariffed production costs are lower than what they're willing to sell.

Finally there are goods that we can't produce locally but desperately need and the foreign exporter won't budge on their selling price.

This last category is the one that will hit Americans in their pocketbook if the importer isn't willing to eat that cost. It sounds like right now for this last category most importers are eating it, likely to avoid losing any market share. That won't last forever so we'll see how this shakes out over the next 18 months.

The problem with those REEEEEEEEEEing about tariffs seem to think pricing is based on the suppliers cost. Suppliers charge what the market will support. The only way a tariff would be 100% passed thru to the consumer is if the absolute lowest price was the same percentage cheaper than the number two supplier. That is almost NEVER the case. All suppliers are usually very close to each other.

Thus, those suppliers in countries that get hit with the tariffs have to keep their prices the same ADDING IN THE TARIFFS, or they won't be a supplier for long.

Trump understands this, and made it one of his platform issues. Most countries have tariffs and our leaders in the past are more worried about being nice than putting America first. They watched us being taxed and taxed and having our businesses suffer greatly. Not Trump. He is leveling the playing field.

My only fear is that we've lost so much it may just be too late. We will see if all this committed investment comes true or not.

Oh, and to add, if we raise $240 billion this year, that's almost $1 trillion over 4 years. That is some serious cash.
LOL OLD
Ag_of_08
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Im seeing crap every day getting tarriff charges tacked on.

Price increases to tarriffs arent inflation, dunking on a manipulated stat thats been lied about for 5years not changing immediately is not the "winning bigly" you think it is.

Companies are not going to absorb 20-50% price increases... i dont know why thats hard to get.
HTownAg98
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4 said:

HTownAg98 said:

Science Denier said:

It appears that these tariffs are being eaten by most of the countries that are being tariffed. Much like what happened in Trump's first term.

Tariffs aren't being eaten by the countries, because the tariff isn't imposed until the good hits our shores. If it's not being passed through 100% to the consumer, it's being accounted for somewhere in the process stateside.

The US manufacturer and consumer is paying the tax, err, tariff.

If that's the case, then as all taxes do, these will remove money from the consumer's pocketbook thereby decreasing purchasing and slowing economic activity.

So the tariffs will decrease inflation. As all taxes do.

Either that, or they aren't a tax and will increase inflation.

But they can't do both.

I think we're seeing that the former is happening.
Sims
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Ag_of_08 said:

Im seeing crap every day getting tarriff charges tacked on.

Price increases to tarriffs arent inflation, dunking on a manipulated stat thats been lied about for 5years not changing immediately is not the "winning bigly" you think it is.

Companies are not going to absorb 20-50% price increases... i dont know why thats hard to get.

We had a vendor start tacking on China reciprocal tariff related surcharges to our invoices.

I went back to them and let them know that we had made it perfectly clear in every purchase order for the last 5 years that we were not to be supplied with Russian or Chinese sourced goods (per our customers). If they were telling us via the surcharge that they were supplying us with Russian or Chinese sourced goods then the $300M+ of purchases we had made from them would need a forensic review for country of origin issues and subsequent liability. They removed the surcharges.

Long way to say...some vendors are just using it as an excuse to jack up prices. Make sure you are questioning the validity.
Kozmozag
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Foreign manufacturers are eating tarrifs to maintain market share. Not completely, but as needed. Trump is forcing the world to get competitive. Dont know how it will end, but its going to be a short term win.
Apollo79
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Tariffs are so bad all countries use them but when do it omg our economy will collapse

Lol
J. Walter Weatherman
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Just because other countries have idiotic liberal policies doesn't mean we should too.
4
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Apollo79 said:

Tariffs are so bad all countries use them but when do it omg our economy will collapse

Lol

Bingo.

Tariffs are inflationary and at the same time will kill commerce if we charge them.

But there hasn't been a single economist on TV over the last 50 years expressing the same concerns over EVERY OTHER COUNTRY ON EARTH THAT DOES BUSINESS WITH US.

Somehow, tariffs didn't have negative effects on every other economy in the world. Just ours.
infinity ag
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Quote:

Trump blasts Goldman over tariff forecasts, tells David Solomon to 'focus on being a DJ'


HAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHH

Love it

Trump roasting Goldman Baldy

infinity ag
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4 said:

Apollo79 said:

Tariffs are so bad all countries use them but when do it omg our economy will collapse

Lol

Bingo.

Tariffs are inflationary and at the same time will kill commerce if we charge them.

But there hasn't been a single economist on TV over the last 50 years expressing the same concerns over EVERY OTHER COUNTRY ON EARTH THAT DOES BUSINESS WITH US.

Somehow, tariffs didn't have negative effects on every other economy in the world. Just ours.


Always follow the money.


No tariff is good for corporations to get cheaper raw materials (and maybe labor). That gives them more profit and increases stock price. People get rich. Honestly, I get rich from this too. But the downside is it kills the country long term and our kids and grandkids will have no jobs.

On the other hand, you apply tariff and that cuts US corp profits, lower stock prices, less cap gains for older people like myself and the Boomers. But our grandkids have a future as things are more fair.

Take your pick.
I personally make less money with tariffs but I love my kids and my future grandkids and don't want to ruin their futures. If I did, then they will curse my gen (Gen X), like we curse the Boomers today for their screwups.

So follow the money. The people who don't want tariffs are the ones making a LOT of money. Folks like myself who speak up without being selfish (as explained above) are rare which is why I get shouted down a lot here (which does not faze me).
infinity ag
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

Just because other countries have idiotic liberal policies doesn't mean we should too.


They have idiotic policies and are growing at 8% and employing their teeming millions while we grow at 2% and have so much unemployment (I don't mean bagger/greeter jobs)?

Got it.
infinity ag
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Kozmozag said:

Foreign manufacturers are eating tarrifs to maintain market share. Not completely, but as needed. Trump is forcing the world to get competitive. Dont know how it will end, but its going to be a short term win.


Exactly.
The Indian Govt subsidizes certain industries to keep them alive. Puts barriers to trade as needed. Whatever makes sense to them.

Here we have white man's burden and think that the US is the world's employer and educator which causes everyone to come in, use us and behave like they are still from the old country.

But as long as our 401ks and IRAs are rocking, right?
J. Walter Weatherman
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If you think our coddled Gen Z graduates are going to take these imaginary promised manufacturing type jobs occupied by those "teeming millions" in other countries I'm not sure what to tell you. By economic scale and standard of living almost none of those countries are close to ours so it's not exactly comparing apples to apples either.

More government is always a bad idea (especially when it's a corporate tax increase like these are), which will be proven out here - assuming the courts don't strike it down in a few weeks. The answer is to make it easier to build a business here, not harder to build everywhere else.
Gap
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Science Denier said:

BigRobSA said:

Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

So we don't think private data is reliable because it's biased. We don't think government data is reliable because it's ****ty. And then we don't trust anecdotal evidence because it's anecdotal.

So we just make up our minds based on whatever best fits our narrative.

My only "narrative" is reality.

Weird....I know.

Thoughts that only reside "in your mind" are not reality.


I think we used to call these people conspiracy theorists.

infinity ag
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

If you think our coddled Gen Z graduates are going to take these imaginary promised manufacturing type jobs occupied by those "teeming millions" in other countries I'm not sure what to tell you. By economic scale and standard of living almost none of those countries are close to ours so it's not exactly comparing apples to apples either.

More government is always a bad idea (especially when it's a corporate tax increase like these are), which will be proven out here - assuming the courts don't strike it down in a few weeks. The answer is to make it easier to build a business here, not harder to build everywhere else.


People will eat grass when they are hungry enough.

So if there are no jobs they are qualified for, they will do those manufacturing jobs. Sure they will. Not everyone can create AI models.

More government is a good idea to keep corporations in check. Corps work for themselves, Govt is supposed to work for the citizens. A good push pull makes for a good society. In America, we deify corps by licking the boots of the C-levels hoping that one day.... just one day we will become one too if just if we work hard enough. That lie has been sold to the dunderheads in our country which is why we are where we are today and we need a Trump to reverse things.

Those countries are going up and we are going down. In some time, we will be them and they will become us.
chris1515
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2023NCAggies said:

Hmm what tariffs will raise prices exactly? China? the one we keep kicking down the road and there really isnt a big tariff increase?



Exactly....another 90 day extension...but this time we're serious...another 90 day extension....but this is THE LAST ONE...
Aggie95
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infinity ag said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

Just because other countries have idiotic liberal policies doesn't mean we should too.


They have idiotic policies and are growing at 8% and employing their teeming millions while we grow at 2% and have so much unemployment (I don't mean bagger/greeter jobs)?

Got it.

you really believe these countries are growing at 8%?

The unemployment rates in India and China are not good...and that's what is reported, so it's much likely a lot worse.
J. Walter Weatherman
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infinity ag said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

If you think our coddled Gen Z graduates are going to take these imaginary promised manufacturing type jobs occupied by those "teeming millions" in other countries I'm not sure what to tell you. By economic scale and standard of living almost none of those countries are close to ours so it's not exactly comparing apples to apples either.

More government is always a bad idea (especially when it's a corporate tax increase like these are), which will be proven out here - assuming the courts don't strike it down in a few weeks. The answer is to make it easier to build a business here, not harder to build everywhere else.


People will eat grass when they are hungry enough.

So if there are no jobs they are qualified for, they will do those manufacturing jobs. Sure they will. Not everyone can create AI models.

More government is a good idea to keep corporations in check. Corps work for themselves, Govt is supposed to work for the citizens. A good push pull makes for a good society. In America, we deify corps by licking the boots of the C-levels hoping that one day.... just one day we will become one too if just if we work hard enough. That lie has been sold to the dunderheads in our country which is why we are where we are today and we need a Trump to reverse things.

Those countries are going up and we are going down. In some time, we will be them and they will become us.


Great campaign slogan for 2026 and beyond. "We massively raised corporate taxes and made everything so expensive that you can either join the sweatshop or eat grass."

Those countries have miles to go before they reach our standard of living and economic power.
infinity ag
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

infinity ag said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

If you think our coddled Gen Z graduates are going to take these imaginary promised manufacturing type jobs occupied by those "teeming millions" in other countries I'm not sure what to tell you. By economic scale and standard of living almost none of those countries are close to ours so it's not exactly comparing apples to apples either.

More government is always a bad idea (especially when it's a corporate tax increase like these are), which will be proven out here - assuming the courts don't strike it down in a few weeks. The answer is to make it easier to build a business here, not harder to build everywhere else.


People will eat grass when they are hungry enough.

So if there are no jobs they are qualified for, they will do those manufacturing jobs. Sure they will. Not everyone can create AI models.

More government is a good idea to keep corporations in check. Corps work for themselves, Govt is supposed to work for the citizens. A good push pull makes for a good society. In America, we deify corps by licking the boots of the C-levels hoping that one day.... just one day we will become one too if just if we work hard enough. That lie has been sold to the dunderheads in our country which is why we are where we are today and we need a Trump to reverse things.

Those countries are going up and we are going down. In some time, we will be them and they will become us.


Great campaign slogan for 2026 and beyond. "We massively raised corporate taxes and made everything so expensive that you can either join the sweatshop or eat grass."

Those countries have miles to go before they reach our standard of living and economic power.


Keep telling yourself that.
Americans have become ostriches with their heads stuck in the sand. The world is flying by. We have sold our our expertise in manufacturing to others, next is tech, soon China will be sending our space rockets because we are too lazy and too fat and stupid to do it ourselves.
infinity ag
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Aggie95 said:

infinity ag said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

Just because other countries have idiotic liberal policies doesn't mean we should too.


They have idiotic policies and are growing at 8% and employing their teeming millions while we grow at 2% and have so much unemployment (I don't mean bagger/greeter jobs)?

Got it.

you really believe these countries are growing at 8%?

The unemployment rates in India and China are not good...and that's what is reported, so it's much likely a lot worse.


Yes they are growing at 8%.
They have a massive population and other social problems that are holding them back. The point is they are going up and we are going down.

If you think their numbers are fake, ours are fake too. Look at linkedin and blind. Everyone is looking for a job, but our official numbers say life is good. Biden tried to fool us (he probably didn't even realize, he's so senile). Let's see if Trump acknowledges the doo doo we are in.
Apollo79
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

Just because other countries have idiotic liberal policies doesn't mean we should too.

huh? So we just continue to raked over the coals in the trade wars cause mUH libeRAL policies?
Logos Stick
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The reason its flat is because of energy price decline which I give Trump credit for. Energy imports are not tariffed.

If you adjust for that, CPI would have come in around 2.9%, which is up 5 months in a row. To claim tariffs haven't had an impact is not supported by the evidence or the number, imo.
IIIHorn
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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

So we don't think private data is reliable because it's biased. We don't think government data is reliable because it's ****ty. And then we don't trust anecdotal evidence because it's anecdotal.

So we just make up our minds based on whatever best fits our narrative.


If the data is private how would we know whether or not it's reliable?


( ...voice punctuated with a clap of distant thunder... )
J. Walter Weatherman
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Apollo79 said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

Just because other countries have idiotic liberal policies doesn't mean we should too.

huh? So we just continue to raked over the coals in the trade wars cause mUH libeRAL policies?


Why would an American company selling products to Americans care if Switzerland has tariffs on American products? Is the only alternative is to rake ourselves over the coals? Because that's what tariffs will do by raising costs for American consumers and companies.
Aggie95
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AG
infinity ag said:

Aggie95 said:

infinity ag said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

Just because other countries have idiotic liberal policies doesn't mean we should too.


They have idiotic policies and are growing at 8% and employing their teeming millions while we grow at 2% and have so much unemployment (I don't mean bagger/greeter jobs)?

Got it.

you really believe these countries are growing at 8%?

The unemployment rates in India and China are not good...and that's what is reported, so it's much likely a lot worse.


Yes they are growing at 8%.
They have a massive population and other social problems that are holding them back. The point is they are going up and we are going down.

If you think their numbers are fake, ours are fake too. Look at linkedin and blind. Everyone is looking for a job, but our official numbers say life is good. Biden tried to fool us (he probably didn't even realize, he's so senile). Let's see if Trump acknowledges the doo doo we are in.

don't see any 8's on there. China is not in better economic shape than we are.

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
infinity ag
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Aggie95 said:

infinity ag said:

Aggie95 said:

infinity ag said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

Just because other countries have idiotic liberal policies doesn't mean we should too.


They have idiotic policies and are growing at 8% and employing their teeming millions while we grow at 2% and have so much unemployment (I don't mean bagger/greeter jobs)?

Got it.

you really believe these countries are growing at 8%?

The unemployment rates in India and China are not good...and that's what is reported, so it's much likely a lot worse.


Yes they are growing at 8%.
They have a massive population and other social problems that are holding them back. The point is they are going up and we are going down.

If you think their numbers are fake, ours are fake too. Look at linkedin and blind. Everyone is looking for a job, but our official numbers say life is good. Biden tried to fool us (he probably didn't even realize, he's so senile). Let's see if Trump acknowledges the doo doo we are in.

don't see any 8's on there. China is not in better economic shape than we are.

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD


India doing pretty well. Okay, no 8. But 7.4.

India's economy outperforms peers as it surges 7.4% in January-March
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-gdp-grows-74-jan-march-qtr-fastest-year-2025-05-30/
Red Fishing Ag93
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AG
J. Walter Weatherman said:

Just because other countries have idiotic liberal policies doesn't mean we should too.

We should if it means the elimination of theirs.
Apollo79
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J. Walter Weatherman said:

Apollo79 said:

J. Walter Weatherman said:

Just because other countries have idiotic liberal policies doesn't mean we should too.

huh? So we just continue to raked over the coals in the trade wars cause mUH libeRAL policies?


Why would an American company selling products to Americans care if Switzerland has tariffs on American products? Is the only alternative is to rake ourselves over the coals? Because that's what tariffs will do by raising costs for American consumers and companies.

except that's not what is happening, also Switzerland is a poor example of the point you are tying to make.
BigRobSA
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Logos Stick said:

The reason its flat is because of energy price decline which I give Trump credit for. Energy imports are not tariffed.

If you adjust for that, CPI would have come in around 2.9%, which is up 5 months in a row. To claim tariffs haven't had an impact is not supported by the evidence or the number, imo.

"Not tariffed....yet." -Homer Simpson voice
Ag in Tiger Country
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AG
I like how some of y'all are comparing prices & costs "5 years ago" to today's prices & costs, acting like the surge suddenly happened in Jan 2025 rather than the prior 4 years of utter incompetence by the Biden Administration that was SOLELY responsible for skyrocketing costs, prices, inflation, interest rates, & unemployment numbers that were recalculated after BS headlines from the MSM tried to gaslight the citizenry into thinking the economy was booming under Biden!!! I guess the MSM was successful in convincing a few dumbasses, including some on this forum, even though the market is at an all time record high! But ignore that; doom & gloom is on the horizon, & it's time to panic- this time they're certain of it!!!
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