Trump Tanking the Cattle Market

24,431 Views | 271 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by Buck Turgidson
Bigballin
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I rarely buy ribeyes anymore due to the cost. I can afford it but it's just gotten ridiculous

I buy south Texas ribeyes instead now. They're significantly cheaper. IYKYK
Leon Sandcastle
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Major Solar Projects List SEIA

They are listed in terms of energy capacity not acreage. Solar farms have absolutely made a huge dent in grazing land available in Central Texas.
Jbob04
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There's a big one in Robertson county that isn't showing up on the map
96ags
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Lathspell said:

It's the meteoric increase in pricing which seems to outpace inflation and costs of other products, at the store. My income didn't increase 50% over the last 2 years. The cost of everything else I use every day or everything else in my house did not increase 50% over the last 2 years.

It's outrageous because I do not believe a homecooked grass-fed steak should cost me $24. Hell, I could pay double that and eat all the prime beef I want at Fogo de Chao. Why am I having to pay that much at the grocery store?

But I've also been eating on the carnivore diet over the last 3 years, so I'm very aware of the fluctuations in prices and make decision on which cuts to buy based on the price or deals when I'm at the store. I used to exclusively eat NY strips. Now, I may get one every couple of weeks as a special thing. I can buy nearly 3 lbs of tri-tip for the same price as 1lb of NY strip.

I appreciate your honest answer. This part is completely logical and I understand. The fact that beef has not followed inflation historically doesn't change the sticker shock when the prices snap back like they have recently.

It's the meteoric increase in pricing which seems to outpace inflation and costs of other products, at the store. My income didn't increase 50% over the last 2 years. The cost of everything else I use every day or everything else in my house did not increase 50% over the last 2 years.


The part below is just feelings, which you are certainly entitled to have, but don't really apply to market forces.

It's outrageous because I do not believe a homecooked grass-fed steak should cost me $24


I hope and actually believe that the beef industry has become more inelastic over the last 40 years by producing a better product, but we are certainly testing that belief currently!
Mrs. FishrCoAg
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Bigballin said:

I rarely buy ribeyes anymore due to the cost. I can afford it but it's just gotten ridiculous

I buy south Texas ribeyes instead now. They're significantly cheaper. IYKYK


Aguilars Mest Market in the RGV has great meat and awesome prices.
insulator_king
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Farmer_J said:

Sq 17 said:

Hate to disagree with you but if young people can't afford a house not sure how the hell they are going to get In The cattle business

Land Eqpt and a herd start off in the 6 figures the ROI is crap.
Everybody who is remotely making it it in the cattle business has a wife who is a govt employee ( teacher, healthcare, or county bureaucrat ) bringing in the regular paycheck and Health insurance and also has 100's of acres under lease for almost nothing to graze cows on because the actual owner just wants the ag exemption.

Nobody is making money if they on had to borrow money to buy the land on to run cattle on


You don't have to own land. Great strides in the lean renting business model. Check out Greg Judy on YouTube. That aside, the bottleneck is processing, always has been and it's intentional.

There's a lot of land for small herds, and part time cattle operations. I know a lot of homesteading type families making a little side income from poultry that would greatly benefit from removing the processing restrictions and let them sell beef.

The number of small producers would explode. And like I mentioned before more kids growing up on farms and more people knowing where their food comes from.

I was wondering about this. How much Gov regulations from the past hamstring cattle ranchers from being their own mini processors and cutting out the middleman?

Seems like farm/ranch direct to home would be a win-win for both parties [producers-consumers].
Ag83
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Quote:

How about we wait and see what "deal" has been done?

Why won't he just tell us what "the deal" is he cut? How long should we wait to find out? Just trust central planning?
Pizza
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JVSchroeder said:

Quote:

We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef that's going to bring the price [down]... That would be the one product that we would say is a little bit higher than we want it, maybe higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked our magic.

Feeder cattle futures are down over 2% so far this morning.

Every single cattle rancher I know voted for him.

Finally, we have a good market, and now he's going to undercut it.


I'm sitting at a BBQ restaurant right now...1 Meat Plate = $18; 2 Meat = $22

Meat prices are at an all time stupid level.
Ag83
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CDUB98 said:

Hagen95 said:

It seems the market should be handling these prices and not the government.

In principle, I agree with this, but maybe part of letting the market handle prices is reducing regulation to allow the market to buy from new sources, i.e., less gov't.

Do you think this is his "deal"? Less gov't? I think that's a bad bet personally. But even if it's true, why can't/won't he just tell the people the details of his "deal"?
96ags
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insulator_king said:

Farmer_J said:

Sq 17 said:

Hate to disagree with you but if young people can't afford a house not sure how the hell they are going to get In The cattle business

Land Eqpt and a herd start off in the 6 figures the ROI is crap.
Everybody who is remotely making it it in the cattle business has a wife who is a govt employee ( teacher, healthcare, or county bureaucrat ) bringing in the regular paycheck and Health insurance and also has 100's of acres under lease for almost nothing to graze cows on because the actual owner just wants the ag exemption.

Nobody is making money if they on had to borrow money to buy the land on to run cattle on


You don't have to own land. Great strides in the lean renting business model. Check out Greg Judy on YouTube. That aside, the bottleneck is processing, always has been and it's intentional.

There's a lot of land for small herds, and part time cattle operations. I know a lot of homesteading type families making a little side income from poultry that would greatly benefit from removing the processing restrictions and let them sell beef.

The number of small producers would explode. And like I mentioned before more kids growing up on farms and more people knowing where their food comes from.

I was wondering about this. How much Gov regulations from the past hamstring cattle ranchers from being their own mini processors and cutting out the middleman?

Seems like farm/ranch direct to home would be a win-win for both parties [producers-consumers].

A lot.

Direct to consumer has it's own unique challenges from a producer standpoint, but 6 plus month wait times for a kill slot is a significant hurtle.
Old May Banker
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Beef prices aren't always synonymous with the cattle market. Beef got expensive far before ranchers were getting paid premiums for cattle.

And cattle numbers are at historic lows. Expensive cattle are here to stay a while IMHO.
fullback44
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We just sold 11 head off our little farm- crazy the prices we got for them - gonna have to eat some steaks this weekend
Sq 17
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To quote Wesley snipes side kick from White Man Can't Jump
Corrected actual actor listed below

" we goin to sizzler "
LMCane
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if cattle farmers want to sell their ranch for solar or just to make money -

what should the response be from the Federal government?
fullback44
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Sq 17 said:

To quote Wesley snipes side kick from White Man Can't Jump
Iirc might have been Arsenio Hall but it's been Awhile since I watched it

" we goin to sizzler "



Sizzler tonight and Golden Corral for the big party Saturday night
Sq 17
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I wish there was K-bobs or
Steak and Ale still around
HTownAg98
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https://www.k-bobs.com/locations
And Steak and Ale is coming back.
One Eyed Reveille
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Sq 17 said:

To quote Wesley snipes side kick from White Man Can't Jump
Iirc might have been Arsenio Hall but it's been Awhile since I watched it

" we goin to sizzler "


Kadeem Hardison from a Different world said it
jja79
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Hoyt Ag said:

coolerguy12 said:

I have cows and I can't understand the outrage here. Prices are insane. Go out and touch some grass.

Same. Need more context to justify this 'outrage'.


I was raised the beef cattle business so I'm sympathetic. Beef prices are a problem for the overwhelming majority of Americans though.
Buck Turgidson
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El Chupacabra said:

texagbeliever said:

1 lb of ground beef is nearly $8. A few years ago that was $4. Food cost inflation is ridiculous.

I was at costco yesterday and a husband/wife were looking at steaks along side me. The prime ribeyes were something like $27/lb. The wife made a comment along the lines of, 'that's rich folk food, let's see what the poor folk choice steaks look like.' I said, 'pretty tough times when poor folk food is $18.99/lb.' I laughed. They laughed. We all cried.

I find better deals on steak at my local HEB than at my nearest Costco. Prime and choice strips and ribeyes are typically $1-2/lb. cheaper at HEB.
itsyourboypookie
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Buy the dip
Buck Turgidson
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HTownAg98 said:

https://www.k-bobs.com/locations
And Steak and Ale is coming back.

I used to love Steak & Ale all through the late 70's into the early 90's. Their Prime Rib quality got bad towards the end, though. I'd love it if they could come back as good as they were in their better years.
FIDO_Ags
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Quote:

6 plus month wait times for a kill slot is a significant hurtle.


Not if you live in Kansas. Nearly every small town in KS has a kill facility or a local meat market and many of the ranches up here have a direct to consumer retail store as well. There are also many large ranches up here, many more than I ever saw growing up in Central Texas. Several of the ranches are large enough that they still have cattle drives to move the cattle to the load pens.
AnScAggie
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The market has been on a good run and is likely to continue based on our current cattle inventory and the time it would take to significantly impact cattle herd size in the US. Nice gotcha try but in current environment there is nothing that can have a long term impact on calf or feeder prices barring some significant shift or trend away from beef in the diet of the average American.
CardiffGiant
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AggieVictor10
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Jbob04 said:

I have cattle as well and these beef prices are stupid high. Not sustainable

At least the libs are getting owned.
FishrCoAg
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For those complaining about the high price of beef, take a look at interest rates, insurance, equipment, etc. over the last 4 years. All of them have significantly out paced the increase in live cattle prices. Producers are doing okay now, that is the ones who have managed to survive.
84AGEC
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Yes. Feeder cattle dropped to 3.70. It was 3.00 in may.
I sold some calves yesterday at $2,500. Sold some in February for $1,800 and thought that was great.

Fixin to sell some fat steers for $3000 plus.

Anyway trump has ruined everything. Ha
buda91
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Fuzzy Dunlop said:

Maybe a good market for the cattle growers. When ground beef is $6.50/lb, it's not a good market for the consumer. Last week, I bought two lbs of ground chuck and two lbs of shrimp for meals for the week. They cost the same amount. I should not be paying shrimp prices for ground beef. At the end of the day, people will stop buying it and the market will tank itself.


But won't someone think of the ropers?!?
zooguy96
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I haven't bought beef in at least 4 months. I bought some skirt steak while I was in Texas in May; since then, prices are just too high, especially when I can get other meats for a much lower price.

I know a lot about a little, and a little about a lot.
IslanderAg04
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This is not something new. Ongoing droughts and herd sizes have been shrinking for years. Issue is, the demand is still extremely high, and herd sizes dont magically grow, they take time. Add to the fact that the green new deal garbage forced alot of ranchers out of the market bc they couldnt keep up with prices from South America.
Ducksplat
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Dude, most people can't afford it now and your take sucks. This started years ago and maybe someday the cattleman will figure out how to be the middle man and the producer…..then you will be solid
rwtxag83
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Pizza said:

JVSchroeder said:

Quote:

We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef that's going to bring the price [down]... That would be the one product that we would say is a little bit higher than we want it, maybe higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked our magic.

Feeder cattle futures are down over 2% so far this morning.

Every single cattle rancher I know voted for him.

Finally, we have a good market, and now he's going to undercut it.


I'm sitting at a BBQ restaurant right now...1 Meat Plate = $18; 2 Meat = $22

Meat prices are at an all time stupid level.


Prices like this turn consumers against production agriculture. Most people sympathize with the tough job farming and ranching is on a daily basis, but not when they feel like they're getting screwed. Enough consumers start to scream and you end up with government policy prescriptions that make it difficult to make a living producing food long after the prices come back into line.

Greater love hath no man than this....
Colonel Nonreg
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I want to know right now, where in the F*** yall are shopping and paying $8/# for ground beef??? You people are either B A D shoppers or you've got way too much money. Kroger goes on sale for 80/20 at $4/# on the regular.

BTW, ground beef was $1.25/# in 2022.
“Indecision is the cornerstone of defeat”
HTownAg98
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My local HEB has 96% lean ground beef for $8.16/lb. 80% lean is $6.49/lb.
 
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